2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[andromache]

FWIW, I view Rachael Flatt's situation as different than Ashley's. Ashley earned her GP spot via last year's scores/results, and she can do what she wants with it. If she bombs - injured or uninjured - no one is affected but her. A slot at Worlds or the Olympics, OTOH, is up to the federation. Even if you "earn" it at Nationals, it's still something given by your federation. At Worlds, spots are at risk, and that has a major impact on the federation and the future. The two situations aren't really comparable.

Also, I too like Bradie's jumps. They aren't, like, Polina Tsurskaya amazing, but she gets adequate height and has excellent snap in her rotation - something that no other current US lady (or Polina Tsurskaya) really has. Younger Gracie and Kaetlyn Osmond have pretty darn good snap in their jumps, too - Bradie just jumps a little smaller, but the rotation is still clear.

 

[macy]

Setting the Ashley discussion aside for a moment, what do you guys think of Bradie Tennell's performance at Skate America? Is Bradie destined to be this year's Mariah Bell, to suddenly jump into the mix and onto the world team? Given that no U.S. lady has hit a home run so far this year, could Bradie win the National Championship?

I was thinking about a possible national championship for her while watching her freeskate live the other day...she absolutely could. she has the highest scores of the season of all the US ladies and seems like the only really reliable one when put under pressure. her consistency almost is reminiscent of rachael flatt. I didn't think too seriously of her until watching her perform at skate America, but I really think she is a contender for the Olympic team now.

 

[LRK]

We on GS have the luxury of time and hindsight to say "I would have done it this way..."

Should have Ashley W/D? I don't know. I'm not her doctor. I'm not sure what conversations transpired between her and her medical team and Raf leading up to Skate America.

As I said earlier, if Ashley is immature for wanting to compete, then so is Boyang Jin for trying to make GPF on two injured ankles, or Jason Brown showing up for Nationals just 2 weeks after being clear to get back on the ice post-stress fracture and having to wear a boot outside of practices. The only difference between those two and Ashley is that Boyang and Jason were able to finish the competition and got what they were aiming for. Ashley didn't. But I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the same thing could have happened to either of them.

Jason was missing 3As all week long. He had issues with the 3A in the SP. There was a point where they were considering scaling down his FS to only include one 3A. It was only in the warm-up the day of the free skate where he started landing them and he ended up landing both of them in the FS. There was some major gambling going on. Why?? Jason wanted to show he was willing to fight for a team spot.

So it's not surprising Ashley wanted to fight for a GPF spot or to compete.

Let's say, it was Jason who W/D in the middle of his free skate at Nationals... would people accuse him of faking/not wanting to compete? Or Nathan? Or any of the men? It kind of feels like there's a sense of cattiness regarding all the backlash toward Ashley, like a desire to assume the worse of her for whatever reason.

Yes: Plush. One nutty Russian politician even wanted to have him arraigned for treason.

 

[LiamForeman]

I think with Bradie it's "potential budding elegance". I was reading comments about calling her a Disney princess and that Cinderella was 19 so what's the problem because Nikodinov also skated to Cinderella. Well Nikodinov already had elegance to her skating so it didn't come across as cheesy. Bradie doesn't yet have that elegance and she's really dressed the part of Disney princess and it comes across as immature. I'd feel the same way if Bradie came out in a yellow dress and auburn hair skating as Belle to Beauty and the Beast even if Belle was 19. It just seems so contrived and little girly playing dress-up. But once Bradie gets those long limbs under control and extends more from her core to her limbs she could be a US darling.

 

[LRK]

Yulia did not do the same at Rostelecom, she fell, got up and could hardly jump. In the end she came back out and finished the program, getting a huge deduction.

And I remember there were people lambasting her for not withdrawing - and Alexei Urmanov for not making her withdraw.

In essence, it's "damned if you do, damned if you don't". There are always people ready to sit in judgement and say what other people should and shouldn't have done. In the end, only the skaters can know how they feel. They may make the right decision or they may make the wrong one. But they don't have the luxury of hindsight, and knowing how things will turn out.

Get well soon, Ashley.

 

[skatenewbie]

It's true that Ashley isn't in as strong a position as she was in 2014. But here's why she's still ahead of all other USA ladies, based on the tiered competitions:
Grand Prix performance: No USA lady made the Final, so no one gets the top-tier credit for that. The only medals were bronzes by Ashley & Bradie. Courtney Hicks gets a bit of a bump here because her 4th in one event gave her the same number of points (9) that Mirai got in two events and more than Karen (7), Mariah (5) and Polina/Amber (0). No one is "ahead" of Ashley here.
2017 Worlds: Ashley's 7th gives her status above everyone except Karen (4th), since Mariah had a weak 12th and no one else was there.
2017 Nationals (lower tier): Karen, Ashley, Mariah, Mirai.

So that leaves 2018 Nationals (the final one of the three in the top tier) as the decider. Very likely, Ashley is "safe" with a podium finish and "possible" with a close 4th. Karen is probably still "safe" in the top 3 (unless she bombs again, at Golden Spin), but not with a 4th; her GPs were just too weak. Bradie likely "safe" in the top 3, unless she goes to Golden Spin & bombs OR is a narrow 3rd over Ashley's 4th. All others likely need a 1st or 2nd, especially if Ashley or Karen are in 4th.

Here is a scenario that would give the committee fits:
1. Courtney/Mirai/Mariah
2. Bradie
3. Karen
4. Ashley

don't forget Mirai bronze at 4CC 2017 while Karen bombs there too. Also Senior B performance only Mirai (silver USC), Karen (bronze USC) and Courtney (bronze Warsaw) medal. But it was all quite low score (180s and 165 for Courtney). Bradie have high score in Lombardia which is quite inflated, but she didnt medal

 

[MarinHondas]

Yes a welcome change of topic . . .

If you compare how Bradie skated at SA with how all of the other US women have skated this season she is definitely the winner at this point. Mirai is second and everyone else is a toss up. If I heard correctly, Bradie also skated well at her previous comps this season so SA was not a fluke. She is the only US woman to land all of her jumps clean at a competition, no URs no 2 foot landings. If she adds another 3-3 combo she could certainly be in the mix at the Olympics. A medal? Probably not but at this point she is the only one who looks like she has even a slim chance for a medal.

Bradie does 3lz-3t and 2a-3t(in the bonus). The 2a 3t , with the GOE she gets counts for as much as a 3s-3t. She also does 3lz-2t-2lo in the bonus which counts for almost 10 points. (A good 3-3 might be worth around 11 points). She doesn’t need to add a second 3-3.

 

[flipsydoodle]

It used to be so pleasant here. I can't believe there's so much bickering about Ashley withdrawing.

It reflects how lackluster our current crop of American senior women skaters is. We’re having to make microanalyses of every microsecond, to get anxious over every jump, drag ourselves around in minutiae, because we keep expecting to make something definitive of the non-stellar, the less-than-magical, the outright boring performances, so we can get our previous pleasure fix back. The relief is not there at all: it’s in stellar, magical, and surprising. And we’ve been doing this for years now.

In any other decade we could kick back, put our feet up, eat popcorn, and indulge ourselves in pleasurable suspense over who might win on any given night. We’d have crazy anxiety about outcome, yes, but little dread, and we’d be almost assured of being wow-ed again and again.

I’d like my anxiety of years gone by back again, please.....

 

[ManyCairns]

One thing I like about Bradie is that she gets great vertical on her jumps. Not a hint of an under-rotation at Skate America. Plus, she has a certain unrefined elegance about her. (Is there such a thing as unrefined elegance? )

Maybe -- She has inherent grace but hasn't been to finishing school yet??? Regardless, she is very nice to watch on the ice. :luv17:

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

It's true that Ashley isn't in as strong a position as she was in 2014. But here's why she's still ahead of all other USA ladies, based on the tiered competitions:
Grand Prix performance: No USA lady made the Final, so no one gets the top-tier credit for that. The only medals were bronzes by Ashley & Bradie. Courtney Hicks gets a bit of a bump here because her 4th in one event gave her the same number of points (9) that Mirai got in two events and more than Karen (7), Mariah (5) and Polina/Amber (0). No one is "ahead" of Ashley here.
2017 Worlds: Ashley's 7th gives her status above everyone except Karen (4th), since Mariah had a weak 12th and no one else was there.
2017 Nationals (lower tier): Karen, Ashley, Mariah, Mirai.

I mostly agree, but I think you have to also say that Ashley effectively came in 6th place at Skate America, her placement after the SP. She was injured, but we can't assume that she was the only woman this season to compete not 100%; if Mariah or Courtney were ever skating hurt, the media wouldn't care enough to inquire about it.

If Bradie skates at Nationals like she's been all season, she should probably do both portions of the team event, and there would be no reason not to go with the podium placements at Nationals.

 

[mrrice]

Up to this point in the season, isn't Bradie the first US Lady to break 200pts?

 

[temadd]

Bradie does 3lz-3t and 2a-3t(in the bonus). The 2a 3t , with the GOE she gets counts for as much as a 3s-3t. She also does 3lz-2t-2lo in the bonus which counts for almost 10 points. (A good 3-3 might be worth around 11 points). She doesn’t need to add a second 3-3.

Not so much for the math but for the wow factor from the judges who do not judge skaters objectively as they should. As much as the tech score is about math and should be purely objective, I believe that judges will raise TES with a 3-3 instead of a 2A-3 or 3-2-2. And 1 point can make a difference

 

[temadd]

Up to this point in the season, isn't Bradie the first US Lady to break 200pts?

Yes and the only one to skate 2 clean programs

 

[twirlingblades]

I'm here to be National champion.

You're at Skate America, Ashley. That was my takeaway from her interview.

I thought that was kinda funny. Like, do you know you're at a GP??

 

[Mrs. P]

The "I want to be National Champion" thing is easy to explain. She just had to W/D from an event she probably didn't want to withdraw, fail to finish a program she wanted to finish.

She's trying to rationalize the W/D. Her emotions are super ramped up and she's upset and she has to respond to the interviewer. I don't see any point of reading any more into that.

Again, we have the benefit of a clear brain, time and hindsight -- none of the three Ashley had when she was interviewed.

 

[mrrice]

The "I want to be National Champion" thing is easy to explain. She just had to W/D from an event she probably didn't want to withdraw, fail to finish a program she wanted to finish.

She's trying to rationalize the W/D. Her emotions are super ramped up and she's upset and she has to respond to the interviewer. I don't see any point of reading any more into that.

Again, we have the benefit of a clear brain, time and hindsight -- none of the three Ashley had when she was interviewed.

I completely agree with this. I always feel sorry for these skaters when they have to go the press room after a bad skate. Poor Jennifer Robinson had to answer questions after a rough SP at Worlds in 2001. I think she said something like, "I'm still a pretty girl so I think I'll be Ok" It was a great response. I think I would have said..."I'm pissed, I came here to win.....How would you feel!!"

 

[JustMe]

Just for reference, here are this seasons best total scores by American Ladies after Skate America:

12 204.10 Bradie TENNELL USA ISU GP Skate America 2017
22 194.46 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2017
28 188.56 Mariah BELL USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2017
32 183.94 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2017
33 183.85 Angela WANG USA ISU CS Finlandia Trophy 2017
35 182.80 Karen CHEN USA ISU GP Skate America 2017
36 182.57 Courtney HICKS USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2017
44 172.62 Emmy MA USA ISU JGP Riga Cup 2017 (Age eligible)
52 167.95 Caroline ZHANG USA ISU CS Ondrej Nepela Trophy 2017
60 161.42 Kaitlyn NGUYEN USA ISU JGP Brisbane 2017 (Not age eligible)
61 161.23 Ashley LIN USA ISU JGP Riga Cup 2017 (Not age eligible)
65 159.28 Starr ANDREWS USA ISU JGP Cup of Austria 2017 (Age eligible)
67 157.77 Polina EDMUNDS USA ISU GP Internationaux de France 2017
78 152.41 Hanna HARRELL USA ISU JGP Egna Neumarkt 2017 (Not age eligible)
80 151.14 Amber GLENN USA ISU GP Audi Cup of China 2017
85 149.14 Tessa HONG USA ISU JGP Minsk Arena Cup 2017 (Age eligible)

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Just for reference, here are this seasons best total scores by American Ladies after Skate America:

12 204.10 Bradie TENNELL USA ISU GP Skate America 2017
22 194.46 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2017
28 188.56 Mariah BELL USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2017
32 183.94 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2017
33 183.85 Angela WANG USA ISU CS Finlandia Trophy 2017
35 182.80 Karen CHEN USA ISU GP Skate America 2017
36 182.57 Courtney HICKS USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2017
44 172.62 Emmy MA USA ISU JGP Riga Cup 2017 (Age eligible)
52 167.95 Caroline ZHANG USA ISU CS Ondrej Nepela Trophy 2017
60 161.42 Kaitlyn NGUYEN USA ISU JGP Brisbane 2017 (Not age eligible)
61 161.23 Ashley LIN USA ISU JGP Riga Cup 2017 (Not age eligible)
65 159.28 Starr ANDREWS USA ISU JGP Cup of Austria 2017 (Age eligible)
67 157.77 Polina EDMUNDS USA ISU GP Internationaux de France 2017
78 152.41 Hanna HARRELL USA ISU JGP Egna Neumarkt 2017 (Not age eligible)
80 151.14 Amber GLENN USA ISU GP Audi Cup of China 2017
85 149.14 Tessa HONG USA ISU JGP Minsk Arena Cup 2017 (Age eligible)

Also worth noting that, if we counted all events, Bradie would hold the top 2 spots, as well as the spot just below Mariah.

 

[SkaterX]

Just for reference, here are this seasons best total scores by American Ladies after Skate America:

12 204.10 Bradie TENNELL USA ISU GP Skate America 2017
22 194.46 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2017
28 188.56 Mariah BELL USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2017
32 183.94 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2017
33 183.85 Angela WANG USA ISU CS Finlandia Trophy 2017
35 182.80 Karen CHEN USA ISU GP Skate America 2017
36 182.57 Courtney HICKS USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2017
44 172.62 Emmy MA USA ISU JGP Riga Cup 2017 (Age eligible)
52 167.95 Caroline ZHANG USA ISU CS Ondrej Nepela Trophy 2017
60 161.42 Kaitlyn NGUYEN USA ISU JGP Brisbane 2017 (Not age eligible)
61 161.23 Ashley LIN USA ISU JGP Riga Cup 2017 (Not age eligible)
65 159.28 Starr ANDREWS USA ISU JGP Cup of Austria 2017 (Age eligible)
67 157.77 Polina EDMUNDS USA ISU GP Internationaux de France 2017
78 152.41 Hanna HARRELL USA ISU JGP Egna Neumarkt 2017 (Not age eligible)
80 151.14 Amber GLENN USA ISU GP Audi Cup of China 2017
85 149.14 Tessa HONG USA ISU JGP Minsk Arena Cup 2017 (Age eligible)

It would be interesting to see a table of average score across all events they participated in as well as the average placement. It's funny how the scores and placements do not match up at all.

 

[andromache]

What do y'all (who are more knowledgeable than me) think of Bradie's skating skills and transitions?

To my untrained eye, she had okay speed and her programs didn't seem completely empty. There are steps into many of her jumping passes. Lots of crossovers too, but not as many as Ashley or Mirai (I'm not counting - just an impression). She never really seems labored. Plenty of adequate upper-body choreography so she never looks like she's just skating around for a warm-up.

The quality of her programs and choreography are fixable in future seasons (if we are indeed counting on her to be the savior of US figure skating ). Skating skills and transitions ability are much more difficult to develop.

Her choreography/program is weak aesthetically and thematically (again, fixable), but she brings a level of performance and intensity that elevates it above mediocre.

I've never been excited about Bradie before and have had no problem saying so, because he international outings as a junior have been far from stellar. But okay....now I'm impressed. Now to avoid getting aboard the hype train.