2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[qwerty]

For a moment of positivity, because I feel like I've only contributed bleakness to this thread so far, I think Ashely's longevity and relevance is very commendable. She's older than Sasha in 2010 and Michelle in 2006, whom I regarded at the time as the grand dames.

Good luck, Ashley!

 

[leafygreens]

Ashley still has an overall better body of work than anyone else when it comes to US Nationals + GP + International results over the past 3 seasons, including this one. She has medaled in the GP every year, finished in the top 3 at Nationals (including one US Championship), and finished in the top 7 at Worlds, including one silver World medal.

The last three seasons do not count, according to the published selection criteria. Only back to 2017 nationals counts. If they want to ignore the criteria, which I think they will, it will seem very unethical.

I actually think the US federation will send Ashley regardless of how she does in Nationals. She has secured spots for the US in the past years, and the year 2018 will most probably be her last, and it's kind of a "good bye and thank you" gift. The other two spots - I don't know. Bradie seems a good idea, as she is fresh and new, and showed she can score in Skate America. I'd personally give the third spot to Karen - she CAN be great I never got Mirai, I think her programmes are duller than dull always and to me, she has no charisma at all.

According to the criteria, they cannot send Ashley as a goodbye gift if she screws up at nationals. I think they will send her even if it's unethical. I don't care if Mirai's programs are dull. She has been scoring generally higher than Karen this fall. IMO those two are about equal so it depends on nationals.

I'm making a consistency graph in Excel with all the tiered events, just with the current favored ladies. Tiers cannot be weighted since USFSA won't reveal their weighting metrics, so I'm doing it by earliest event to most recent. But it resembles the consistency graph that USFSA has on the last page of their selection criteria, which is not weighted.

Bradie's scores have sharply increased since World Juniors. Ashley's scores have sharply decreased since 2017 Nationals. Mirai, Karen and Mariah seem to be very close in terms of consistency but Mirai has the second highest fall international score after Bradie.

We still have Golden Spin for Bradie and Karen, and Nationals for everyone.

Here are the current scores from the selection criteria (feel free to check my accuracy.) Skaters not listed in a particular order:

Ashley:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
193.54 Worlds 2017
Tier 2
183.94 Skate Canada 2017
WD Skate America 2017
Tier 3
211.78 US Championships 2017

Karen:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
199.29 Worlds 2017
Tier 2
170.40 Skate Canada 2017
182.80 Skate America 2017
166.82 Four Continents 2017
Tier 3
TBD Golden Spin 2017
182.32 US Int'l FS Classic 2017
214.22 US Championships 2017

Mariah:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
187.23 Worlds 2017
Tier 2
188.56 Rostelecom 2017
166.04 NHK 2017
177.10 Four Continents 2017
Tier 3
168.66 US Int'l FS Classic 2017
197.92 US Championships 2017

Courtney:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
Tier 2
182.57 Skate Canada 2017
Tier 3
165.39 Warsaw Cup 2017
174.16 Autumn Classic International 2017
165.19 US Championships 2017

Bradie:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
Tier 2
204.10 Skate America 2017
Tier 3
TBD Golden Spin 2017
196.70 Lombardia 2017
161.36 World Juniors 2017
169.98 US Championships 2017

Mirai:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
Tier 2
178.25 Rostelecom 2017
194.46 NHK 2017
194.95 Four Continents 2017
Tier 3
183.54 US Int'l FS Classic 2017
194.90 US Championships 2017

 

[qwerty]

Karen:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
199.29 Worlds 2017
Tier 2
187.23 Skate Canada 2017
182.80 Skate America 2017
166.82 Four Continents 2017
Tier 3
TBD Golden Spin 2017
182.32 US Int'l FS Classic 2017
214.22 US Championships 2017

170.4 for Karen's Skate Canada 2017.

 

[flipsydoodle]

Ashley still has an overall better body of work than anyone else when it comes to US Nationals + GP + International results over the past 3 seasons, including this one. She has medaled in the GP every year, finished in the top 3 at Nationals (including one US Championship), and finished in the top 7 at Worlds, including one silver World medal.

Those may be nice accomplishments but they mean very little in the current selection criteria. For 2018, they only go as far back as US Champs 2017, IIRC.

 

[leafygreens]

170.4 for Karen's Skate Canada 2017.

Thank you. Updated.

 

[ice coverage]

... Here are the current scores from the selection criteria (feel free to check my accuracy.) Skaters not listed in a particular order:

Ashley:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
193.54 Worlds 2017
Tier 2
183.94 Skate Canada 2017
WD Skate America 2017
Tier 3
211.78 US Championships 2017

Karen:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
199.29 Worlds 2017
Tier 2
170.40 Skate Canada 2017
182.80 Skate America 2017
166.82 Four Continents 2017
Tier 3
TBD Golden Spin 2017
182.32 US Int'l FS Classic 2017
214.22 US Championships 2017

Mariah:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
187.23 Worlds 2017
Tier 2
188.56 Rostelecom 2017
166.04 NHK 2017
177.10 Four Continents 2017
Tier 3
168.66 US Int'l FS Classic 2017
197.92 US Championships 2017

Courtney:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
Tier 2
182.57 Skate Canada 2017
Tier 3
165.39 Warsaw Cup 2017
174.16 Autumn Classic International 2017
165.19 US Championships 2017

Bradie:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
Tier 2
204.10 Skate America 2017
Tier 3
TBD Golden Spin 2017
196.70 Lombardia 2017
161.36 World Juniors 2017
169.98 US Championships 2017

Mirai:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
Tier 2
178.25 Rostelecom 2017
194.46 NHK 2017
194.95 Four Continents 2017
Tier 3
183.54 US Int'l FS Classic 2017
194.90 US Championships 2017

Thanks, leafy.

Will the USFS selection committee take placements into consideration, as well as scores?

Hope you don't mind that below I have added placements to your list.

Also hyperlinks to results (at the very least for my own convenience, in case I need to double-check something I have posted re placements).

Corrections are welcome .

Ashley:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
193.54 Worlds 2017 (7th place)
Tier 2
183.94 Skate Canada 2017 (3rd place)
WD Skate America 2017
Tier 3
211.78 US Championships 2017 (2nd place)

Karen:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
199.29 Worlds 2017 (4th place)
Tier 2
170.40 Skate Canada 2017 (7th place)
182.80 Skate America 2017 (8th place)
166.82 Four Continents 2017 (12th place)
Tier 3
TBD Golden Spin 2017
182.32 US Int'l FS Classic 2017 (3rd place)
214.22 US Championships 2017 (1st place)

Mariah:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
187.23 Worlds 2017 (12th place)
Tier 2
188.56 Rostelecom 2017 (6th place)
166.04 NHK 2017 (9th place)
177.10 Four Continents 2017 (6th place)
Tier 3
168.66 US Int'l FS Classic 2017 (5th place)
197.92 US Championships 2017 (3rd place)

Courtney:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
Tier 2
182.57 Skate Canada 2017 (4th place)
Tier 3
165.39 Warsaw Cup 2017 (3rd place)
174.16 Autumn Classic International 2017 (4th place)
165.19 US Championships 2017 (12th place)

Bradie:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
Tier 2
204.10 Skate America 2017 (3rd place)
Tier 3
TBD Golden Spin 2017
196.70 Lombardia 2017 (4th place)
161.36 World Juniors 2017 (7th place)
169.98 US Championships 2017 (9th place)

Mirai:
Tier 1
TBD US Championships 2018
Tier 2
178.25 Rostelecom 2017 (9th place)
194.46 NHK 2017 (4th place)
194.95 Four Continents 2017 (3rd place)
Tier 3
183.54 US Int'l FS Classic 2017 (2nd place)
194.90 US Championships 2017 (4th place)

 

[andromache]

I don't know why any of you expect USFS to give gifts to anyone who hasn't earned them - otherwise USFS would've gifted Gracie last season with a spot at Worlds. If any "gifts" happen for the ladies this year, it will be for Worlds, not the Olympics (such as USFS sending Max to Worlds in 2014 instead of Jason). I suppose I could envision USFS sending a 4th-5th place Ashley to Worlds, in the hope that further training time will help her chances at a last-ditch effort for another World medal in a depleted and tired Worlds field + maybe even keep three spots. Though whether or not Ashley would even want to do that if she's missing the Olympics is another story.

 

[ice coverage]

.... If any "gifts" happen for the ladies this year, it will be for Worlds, not the Olympics (such as USFS sending Max to Worlds in 2014 instead of Jason). ...

Max's spot on the 2014 World team was not a "gift."
Max earned it.
(As I have said umpteen times in various threads, the USFS selection criteria for 2014 Worlds were not identical to its criteria for 2014 Sochi.)

Jason earned the 2014 Sochi spot.

 

[andromache]

Max's spot on the 2014 World team was not a "gift."
Max earned it.
(As I have said umpteen times in various threads, the USFS selection criteria for 2014 Worlds were not identical to its criteria for 2014 Sochi.)

Jason earned the 2014 Sochi spot.

I put "gift" in quotes for a reason.

 

[klutzy]

I like andromache's idea of sending the top 3 finishers at Nationals to the Olympics and then the remaining three of the top six to 4CC--then shake out the scores and pick three from the two events to go to Worlds. There's no one, except Bradie, who's even shown the ability to get into the final flight this season, though it's still possible that Karen Chen will have a turn-around. Ashley's peaked and her heart just isn't in it anymore--which is okay, but she doesn't deserve a bye into the Olympics. Mirai needs to show that she can deliver the whole package--all the jumps, SS and some sort of interpretation. She's not a newbie. She's had years to work on all of this. She needs to put it all together. It doesn't have to be perfect, but all the aspects of a good program need to be in there. It can just be one thing at a time.

Karen needs to pick her programs and stick them and make those programs (and jumps) better.

I'm actually hopeful about Mariah Bell. She had the wrong programs, but she has what it takes--she just needs to pull it all together. She still might do it. And if Angela Wang does--that's another dark horse I'm willing to back.

And, hell, if Polina's got more of her jumps back, I'd be delighted to see it as her SS are looking good. I'm thinking it more likely, though, that she'll squeeze in for 4CC berth if the top three don't go.

I think all of them need to train more with the new judging system in mind--so more stamina, more back-loaded choreography. Rotate those jumps and stick up those arms. It's hard to switch to that, so I hope all the juniors are working on this because the Russian juniors are.

 

[brightphoton]

Are these all the competitions for American ladies, until Nationals?

Aside from Golden Spin

 

[Chemistry66]

Are these all the competitions for American ladies, until Nationals?

Aside from Golden Spin

"These"?

Since no US ladies qualified for the GPF, Golden Spin is the only international event the US has on the International Assignments page prior to Nationals.

 

[mrrice]

"These"?

Since no US ladies qualified for the GPF, Golden Spin is the only international event the US has on the International Assignments page prior to Nationals.

I believe that Skate America was the final GP Event. With the exception of the GPF, of course. From what I recall, it is usually the first event and it seems strange to have the GP end season with the exception of Golden Spin which I believe is a Senior B.

 

[MarinHondas]

I like andromache's idea of sending the top 3 finishers at Nationals to the Olympics and then the remaining three of the top six to 4CC--then shake out the scores and pick three from the two events to go to Worlds. There's no one, except Bradie, who's even shown the ability to get into the final flight this season, though it's still possible that Karen Chen will have a turn-around. Ashley's peaked and her heart just isn't in it anymore--which is okay, but she doesn't deserve a bye into the Olympics. Mirai needs to show that she can deliver the whole package--all the jumps, SS and some sort of interpretation. She's not a newbie. She's had years to work on all of this. She needs to put it all together. It doesn't have to be perfect, but all the aspects of a good program need to be in there. It can just be one thing at a time.

Karen needs to pick her programs and stick them and make those programs (and jumps) better.

I'm actually hopeful about Mariah Bell. She had the wrong programs, but she has what it takes--she just needs to pull it all together. She still might do it. And if Angela Wang does--that's another dark horse I'm willing to back.

And, hell, if Polina's got more of her jumps back, I'd be delighted to see it as her SS are looking good. I'm thinking it more likely, though, that she'll squeeze in for 4CC berth if the top three don't go.

I think all of them need to train more with the new judging system in mind--so more stamina, more back-loaded choreography. Rotate those jumps and stick up those arms. It's hard to switch to that, so I hope all the juniors are working on this because the Russian juniors are.

“sticking up your arms” as you refer to it, is only one GOE bullet. Look at Polina T. She comes from Eteri’s camp but doesn’t use tanos or rippons. Why? Because she has good quality jumps. She scored 140 at NHK when she was clean. In her senior debut. Juniors and our senior ladies need to work on good technique and good flow, and difficult transitions. That’s what’s important, not throwing up your arms. Good quality jumps> tanos. I do agree, our ladies need to work on backloading though. Bradie has very good quality, no tano needed , jumps and difficult transitions but she puts 3 jumps in the first half. I doubt she will change this layout but I still think backloading would be a good idea. The stamina needed for it is incredible though. There’s a reason not everyone does it.

 

[MarinHondas]

Also, I would like to say one thing about Bradie. I think it IS premature to call her “the most consistent US lady in years” or things like that but what I will say is she has excellent transitions. I haven’t seen any of the American ladies have any transitions like that. Almost every jump has some kind of difficult entry in and some kind of quality extension of something similar out. That really helps the judges go up on the GOE. No other senior US lady uses those intricate transitions.

 

[eaglehelang]

Withdrawal through injury or illness is an unfortunate but unavoidable part, not only of sport, but of artistic performances of all kinds. I've attended many opera performances during which a singer has been forced to withdraw and an understudy has taken his or her place. I've attended theatrical and ballet performances at which last-minute casting changes have been announced and understudies taken the place of stars, disappointing the audience but also granting us the gift of extraordinary performances we would never have experienced otherwise. If a singer or dancer becomes ill or injured and can't continue adequately, the performance as a whole suffers. Moreover, the singer risks permanent injury, disappointing far more people than a single audience and potentially depriving the world of all the performances lost to a premature and avoidable end to a career. That's why understudies are present in the theatre. Similarly, I've watched many sporting events in which an athlete has had to withdraw and a substitute to take his or her place during the event, for the good of the team and the good of the individual athlete's career and ability to make future contributions to team or country. That's why substitutes are on the bench. It simply isn't true to say that finishing a performance or a competition is the only or the overriding imperative.

Despite what you seem to think, the human body is not always subject to the human will. Sometimes pain is manageable, sometimes it's not. Sometimes pain remains consistent, sometimes it diminishes, sometimes it intensifies beyond endurance. Sometimes even five minutes of pain cannot be tolerated. When pain shifts from manageable to unmanageable cannot be predicted and is not in the mind's control, no matter how strong that mind is. Reaching one's breaking point says absolutely nothing about the character or integrity of the athlete experiencing pain. It simply says that that athlete, like all of us, is human.

I will interject here and say if its my country's athlete, she would have been severely criticised. Or any Asian country for the matter. They are supposed to be representing and fighting for the country

Remember Zhang Dan in 2006 Olympics? Not exactly the same toughnes as China athletes but close.

Unless the skater fell and could not put weight on the leg or dislocated shoulder like Daniel Samohin.
Have you ever since an Asian athlete do what Ashley did? Never. They would skated till the end, if injured, just dont the remaining jumps.

In Summer Olympics sports, athletes compete with injury, knees, back wrapped up. I would expect Winter Olympics athletes are just as tough or tougher.
Its the fans( of figure skating)who are stimes fragile, feelings easily hurt.

 

[klutzy]

Look, the thing is that the Eteri girls are doing everything to rack up points. Do you need a tano to win? No. But if there's the possibility of being able to do it, why not practice it?

I actually kind of hate Zagitova's programs--they strike me as cluttered--but under this scoring system, they rack up the points. And until the rules change, this is the system under which the ladies are skating.

So, yes, first up--rotate the jumps. But also, again, start developing the stamina for back-loaded programs and do those programs. It's interesting that A) Bradie wasn't recycling an old program and B) it was backloaded (though not like Zagitova's) with difficult transitions. She was skating a program that was designed for the current system, not just adapted for it here and there.

I really think this is more of a skating establishment than a quality/talent of current skaters problem. The big names of American skating are not young--and I suspect a lot of them still think in terms of "perfect" 6.0 programs--they know better, of course, but their ideals were formed under that system.

 

[brightphoton]

"These"?

Since no US ladies qualified for the GPF, Golden Spin is the only international event the US has on the International Assignments page prior to Nationals.

Yes, I meant the GP series events (and the senior Bs and Challenger events).

I believe that Skate America was the final GP Event. With the exception of the GPF, of course. From what I recall, it is usually the first event and it seems strange to have the GP end season with the exception of Golden Spin which I believe is a Senior B.

It's weird for Skate America to end ... and that's it for American ladies. See you at Nationals. A bit anti-climatic.

 

[Skater Boy]

Let's not praise Zhang Dan - the amount of time it took for them to start again could have led to more penalties. And while it is admirable how she continued how she technically made a mistake with her partner that caused that horrible and awkward fall. it is not like she was some innocent victim attacked at random on the ice. I am not saying she did anything wrong and doesn't deserve empathy but she and her partner were kind of the maker of their own misfortune. I am not sure we should be praising people pushing through painand suggesting others are therefore wimps or not as strong. sometimes smarter one is the one who knows when to stop. Too much honor is giving to gritting it out and often it was not necessary - I am prety sure they year th eAmerican girls won the gymnastics olympics gold ms. Strug's courageous vault really was not even required and set up argaubly a bad example for other future olympians. Sure it made for great tv and had broadcasters really understood the competition it really was all in vain and unnecessary drama - though that makes for ratings.

 

[ribbit]

I will interject here and say if its my country's athlete, she would have been severely criticised. Or any Asian country for the matter. They are supposed to be representing and fighting for the country

Remember Zhang Dan in 2006 Olympics? Not exactly the same toughnes as China athletes but close.

Unless the skater fell and could not put weight on the leg or dislocated shoulder like Daniel Samohin.
Have you ever since an Asian athlete do what Ashley did? Never. They would skated till the end, if injured, just dont the remaining jumps.

In Summer Olympics sports, athletes compete with injury, knees, back wrapped up. I would expect Winter Olympics athletes are just as tough or tougher.
Its the fans( of figure skating)who are stimes fragile, feelings easily hurt.

I agree with you that elite athletes are extremely tough and frequently compete with injuries and through pain that most of us would not be able to endure. And I agree that many cultures (not only Asian cultures) would criticize a decision like Ashley's--witness the complaints in this thread, some of which are coming from her fellow Americans. Your mention of Chinese athletes reminds me of Liu Xiang, the great Chinese Olympic and World champion hurdler who had to withdraw from the 110-meter hurdles during the running of the first heat at the Beijing Olympics in 2008, and who was intensely criticized for doing so. (Another athlete false-started, he aggravated an Achilles tendon injury in his start, and he had to walk off the track rather than returning to the starting line. He returned to competition but was injured again in the heats at the 2012 Olympics, hopping down the track to the finish line before being taken away in a wheelchair. This injury ended his career.) No matter how great the cultural expectations--and an athlete's own expectations--may be, sometimes pain is truly intolerable.

I can't tell from your comment whether or not you think that such criticism of athletes who withdraw during competition is valid, or whether or not you think that athletes should attempt to complete a competition no matter what, even at the risk of further injury--or of passing out or vomiting from pain, something I don't think any of us want to see. The comment you quote was a response to a poster who appeared to express the beliefs that surrender to pain was always a sign of mental weakness, that human beings were capable of tolerating any level of pain if they just set their minds to it, and that therefore it was unacceptable, weak, and shameful for an athlete to withdraw from a competition due to injury or pain. My point was simply that these beliefs were unreasonable. (If they were true, torture would be completely useless and would have been abandoned long ago. Sadly, history shows that that is not the case...and equally sadly, history also shows that people subjected to torture for long enough periods of time will eventually say anything, true or not, to make the pain stop.)

We cannot know what level of pain Ashley was experiencing, or how her experience of pain changed over the competition. Therefore, we cannot objectively judge her decision. It's easy for us to sit back and say we would have done things differently, or she should have done things differently. We can't actually know that, or know what we would have done under those conditions. We have to rely on her report of her subjective experience. I would say that her record--as she pointed out, she has never withdrawn during a competition in an unusually long career--and her description of the pain she felt during her program as "nauseating", provide supporting evidence that her decision to stop was made because the pain was unendurable. But ultimately, external corroborating evidence shouldn't matter. To return to your original point, these athletes are extremely tough. If an athlete comes to the conclusion that she can't tough it out any longer, or that she will do herself great harm by toughing it out, we should respect her decision and call it wise, not weak.