2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[drivingmissdaisy]

Have Ashley, Bradie, Karen etc. said whether they're planning to stay another Olympic cycle? I know Mirai said that she's not going to think about that now (https://youtu.be/P4WlMw_WTIQ?t=639) but have any of the others mentioned anything?

I'm not sure if Ashley has announced it, but it seems pretty clear this would be her last season given her struggles to remain competitive in this field. I would think that Bradie and Karen would stick around, as they have the potential to improve.

 

[musicfan80]

The sad part about the discussions over American ladies is that it doesn't matter who they send, because I don't see any American cracking the top 5, and maybe only one or two cracking top 10. They aren't competitive so it doesn't matter who they send. End of story.

Does this mean that it’s also irrelevant to discuss the selection of literally any country except 3 of them or maybe 4? When did the importance of the Olympics only get reduced to the top 5 ranked skaters?

I would be less worried about where the U.S. ladies finish in the Olympics and significantly more concerned about what happens at Worlds. I'm not sure we are going to be able to keep 3 spots, unless it's because so many top skaters at the Olympics deciding to not compete at Worlds.

 

[geige]

I absolutely hate :dev2: this kind of callous comment -- that "it doesn't matter who they send."

The decision as to whom USFS will send does matter very much to the three ladies who will be sent -- and to the other ladies who will stay home. Whether or not the chosen three have any chance of placing in the top five or top ten.
No doubt that Karen, Mariah, Bradie, and others have been dreaming for years of representing the U.S. at the Olympics. And have been pouring blood, sweat, and tears (not to mention $$$) into getting there.
Ashley has been dreaming for four years of representing the U.S. again at the Olympics. And has been pouring blood, sweat, and tears (plus $$$) into getting there.
Mirai has been dreaming for eight years of representing the U.S. again at the Olympics. And has been pouring blood, sweat, and tears (plus $$$) into getting there.
Dreams are going to come true, and dreams are going to get dashed. The decision as to whom USFS will send does matter to a group of athletes who have devoted themselves to a sport that supposedly we all love.
I care about these individual human beings, so the decision does matter to me as a fan as well. Again, whether or not the chosen three have any chance of placing in the top five or top ten.

 

[klutzy]

"Ersatz" is not a personal attack against you.

It is an expression of my disagreement with your rationalizations. (IMO, they are rationalizations.)

As I have said, I don't see any relevance in a comparison of 2014 Olympics results to 2016 Worlds results -- whether placements or scores.

But if you are insistent on comparing those two comps, then is a difference of one place (Polina's ninth place vs. Mirai's tenth) really a solid indication of any superiority?? Not for me. Means as little to me as Mirai's slight edge in terms of score.
And your original post regarding those two comps pointedly made note that Mirai's placement was lower.
If what you really meant is that the placements were similar, why did you not say so?

And your first post in this conversation said that Mirai should have skated well to get to the Olympics -- as Polina did.
At 2014 Nats, Mirai was within three points of Polina.
If Polina did "skate well" at 2014 Nats, I don't see some kind of clear demarcation that Mirai did not "skate well."
No question that Polina outscored Mirai -- but I don't agree that a three-point difference is grounds for emphatically declaring that one lady "skated well" and another did not.

AFAIK, the only major competitions at which Polina and Mirai have gone head to head are three years of U.S. Nats. (No international comps, AFAIK?)
And yes, Polina has been ahead each of those years at Nats.
But IMO, the only year of Nats that was relevant to the Sochi decision was 2014.
As I said from the beginning, I did not have a problem with the Sochi decision.
But I don't agree that if the selection committee were choosing btwn Polina and Mirai, the choice would have been a no-brainer in Polina's favor. There would have been a case to be made for Polina. There would have been a case to be made for Mirai.
The committee decided to go with Gracie, Polina, and Ashley. I did not and do not have a problem with the decision. But I do object to insinuations that it should/would have been unthinkable for the selection committee to give Mirai consideration in its decision-making process.

"Rationalizations"? I don't need to rationalize anything--my argument is perfectly reasonable--that the skater who placed second at Nationals was the right person to send to the Olympics and her performance there and afterwards supports that.

You are the one who seemed to be arguing that the skater who didn't perform as well should have been sent in her place because at some other competition she had a marginally better point total.

Now you seem to be doing a walk-back. No one ever said the decision-making should be a "no-brainer"--you're setting up a strawman argument here. I did point out WHY Polina was going to be sent over Mirai. There are large factors that come into play in an Olympic year that have little to do with things like under-rotations.

But since you now have no issue with the Sochi decision, I'll take that as a sign that we're done here with 2014.

 

[concorde]

"Rationalizations"? I don't need to rationalize anything--my argument is perfectly reasonable--that the skater who placed second at Nationals was the right person to send to the Olympics and her performance there and afterwards supports that.

You are the one who seemed to be arguing that the skater who didn't perform as well should have been sent in her place because at some other competition she had a marginally better point total.

Now you seem to be doing a walk-back. No one ever said the decision-making should be a "no-brainer"--you're setting up a strawman argument here. I did point out WHY Polina was going to be sent over Mirai. There are large factors that come into play in an Olympic year that have little to do with things like under-rotations.

But since you now have no issue with the Sochi decision, I'll take that as a sign that we're done here with 2014.

Why are you insisting that this be re-hashed? It happened 4 years ago and the whys are irrelevant at this point in time.

 

[Amei]

If what happened in 2014 happens this year the USFSA are making a clear statement - if you have big-time sponsors and/or have been in Olympic advertising we are sending you to the Olympics, because nothing anyone has done this year or last year is worth a 'pass' to the Olympics, the only way top 3 finishers at nationals should not go is if they are underage or someone gets hurt after nationals.

 

[ask]

Competing at the Olympics is an honor. Top 3 should have that honor regardless of how competitive they are. And this year, none of them are competitive.

 

[crazydreamer]

If what happened in 2014 happens this year the USFSA are making a clear statement - if you have big-time sponsors and/or have been in Olympic advertising we are sending you to the Olympics, because nothing anyone has done this year or last year is worth a 'pass' to the Olympics, the only way top 3 finishers at nationals should not go is if they are underage or someone gets hurt after nationals.

I disagree. I don't see why a skater should "deserve" the honor of going to the Olympics just because they have a fluke great skate at nationals. The only skater who has shown breakthrough consistency this year is Bradie. Apart from her, as long as they don't completely bomb, the spots should go to the U.S. ladies who have done the most for the sport over the past quad and have the most potential. Those, of course, are Ashley, Karen, and Mirai.

 

[ice coverage]

"Rationalizations"? I don't need to rationalize anything--my argument is perfectly reasonable--that the skater who placed second at Nationals was the right person to send to the Olympics and her performance there and afterwards supports that.

You are the one who seemed to be arguing that the skater who didn't perform as well should have been sent in her place because at some other competition she had a marginally better point total.

Now you seem to be doing a walk-back. No one ever said the decision-making should be a "no-brainer"--you're setting up a strawman argument here. I did point out WHY Polina was going to be sent over Mirai. There are large factors that come into play in an Olympic year that have little to do with things like under-rotations.

But since you now have no issue with the Sochi decision, I'll take that as a sign that we're done here with 2014.

You are too funny. "Walk-back"?? "Now have no issue with the Sochi decision"??

Evidently you have forgotten that I said from the very beginning that I did not have a problem with the Sochi decision.
And you have invented the fiction that I said that Mirai should have been sent instead of Polina.

I will respond further via PM to your comments.
This conversation has gone on way too long in the thread.

 

[Jammers]

The collapse of American’s women’s skating is especially sad because around 2016 and into early 2017 we looked like we were finally recovering from a drought. Wagner, Gold, Chen, Bell looked like (at various different times) they were either possible medal contenders or could at least achieve high placements with great skates. And then they all just collapsed. And now it looks like Bradie Tennell, a decent skater but not particularly remarkable, is our best hope? Sheesh.

I don't think Mariah Bell has ever really been a contender internationally besides her one great competition at SA to be honest. I don't think her scoring potential is all that great compared to someone like Karen if they both skate clean.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I disagree. I don't see why a skater should "deserve" the honor of going to the Olympics just because they have a fluke great skate at nationals. The only skater who has shown breakthrough consistency this year is Bradie. Apart from her, as long as they don't completely bomb, the spots should go to the U.S. ladies who have done the most for the sport over the past quad and have the most potential. Those, of course, are Ashley, Karen, and Mirai.

These are not the selection criteria. Also, Polina won 4CC this quad, and also beat Karen twice and Mirai three times in her last three appearances at Nationals. No one should be on that team without a medal at 2018 Nationals.

 

[R.D.]

Have Ashley, Bradie, Karen etc. said whether they're planning to stay another Olympic cycle? I know Mirai said that she's not going to think about that now (https://youtu.be/P4WlMw_WTIQ?t=639) but have any of the others mentioned anything?

No idea. Don't know of any interviews where they reveal that information. (Has anyone even asked them?)

My thoughts: Wagner would be 30/31(!), I doubt it. That said, I would not completely rule out her doing a farewell season post 2018 (although in all likelihood, I think she's done after Pyeongchang). Chen, Tennell, I have no idea, although both are young enough to make it work if they so wish.

 

[BackSpiral]

I thought Karen Chen said something about wanting to compete another 4 years, but I'm not positive. I assume Bradie will continue as well.

 

[frida80]

These are not the selection criteria. Also, Polina won 4CC this quad, and also beat Karen twice and Mirai three times in her last three appearances at Nationals. No one should be on that team without a medal at 2018 Nationals.

Polina beat Karen once at nationals. They’ve only competed against each other twice. The first time, Karen beat Polina.

 

[klutzy]

I think we know that regardless of Polina's post 2014 achievements that she's not going to the Olympics unless she recovers more of her jumps. She was getting there with her SP, but her LP was a long ways from being competitive. I hold out some hope, but not a lot.

I think both Karen and Mariah Bell have the possibility of turning things around at Nationals and showing up with great skates. Karen, after all, was fourth at Worlds not that long ago.

 

[R.D.]

I think we know that regardless of Polina's post 2014 achievements that she's not going to the Olympics unless she recovers more of her jumps. She was getting there with her SP, but her LP was a long ways from being competitive. I hold out some hope, but not a lot.

In 2010, S. Cohen was in a similar position. The FS is a completely different beast when you're coming back from injury/time off.

 

[skatefan17]

I think we know that regardless of Polina's post 2014 achievements that she's not going to the Olympics unless she recovers more of her jumps. She was getting there with her SP, but her LP was a long ways from being competitive. I hold out some hope, but not a lot.

I think both Karen and Mariah Bell have the possibility of turning things around at Nationals and showing up with great skates. Karen, after all, was fourth at Worlds not that long ago.

I just think in Karen's case she's had such horrible skates this season that it doesn't bode well for her to make the team. To me, Mirai and Ashley have shown more consistency are at least durability. My team would be Bradie, Ashley and Mirai.

 

[klutzy]

But the reason Karen's had such horrible skates is that she keeps changing her program. If she's solid, she has the ability to do well at Nationals. Mariah's on my list simply because, despite flawed skates, she has one of the higher scores internationally this season. If you took the three American ladies with the highest scores this season internationally it's Bradie, Mirai and Mariah

 

[pearly]

No idea. Don't know of any interviews where they reveal that information. (Has anyone even asked them?)

My thoughts: Wagner would be 30/31(!), I doubt it. That said, I would not completely rule out her doing a farewell season post 2018 (although in all likelihood, I think she's done after Pyeongchang). Chen, Tennell, I have no idea, although both are young enough to make it work if they so wish.

Kostner is 30 and will be 31 at these Olympics. She is actually a contender for a medal, I think. But I don't think Ashley will compete for another four years.

 

[crazydreamer]

These are not the selection criteria. Also, Polina won 4CC this quad, and also beat Karen twice and Mirai three times in her last three appearances at Nationals. No one should be on that team without a medal at 2018 Nationals.

You are saying you must be top 3 at nationals, period, which is definitely not the selection criteria. As for Polina, she has a very respectable history, but has not shown herself capable of being competitive this year, and has never medaled at a major international event other than FCC 2+ years ago, before her injury and growth spurt (assuming that even qualifies as a major event, as it rarely includes more than 2 of the top names). If she skates the lights out with new jumps she wasn't ready to include on the GP circuit this season, and other skaters do poorly, that would be reason to reevaluate, but if she just happens to fall in third because no skater is skating their best at nationals, I can't see how that would make her deserving of an Olympic spot.