2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[concorde]

You are saying you must be top 3 at nationals, period, which is definitely not the selection criteria. As for Polina, she has a very respectable history, but has not shown herself capable of being competitive this year, and has never medaled at a major international event other than FCC 2+ years ago, before her injury and growth spurt (assuming that even qualifies as a major event, as it rarely includes more than 2 of the top names). If she skates the lights out with new jumps she wasn't ready to include on the GP circuit this season, and other skaters do poorly, that would be reason to reevaluate, but if she just happens to fall in third because no skater is skating their best at nationals, I can't see how that would make her deserving of an Olympic spot.

I think most posters (like me) do not think that any of the ladies have met the selection criteria to allow them to bump another skater if they are outside the top three. Hence, a skater needs a top 3 finish to make the team.

The only skater who has been consistently good is Bradie.

Seriously - how often has that criteria been used? It's been on the books for 20+ years and I think only once for the ladies. Kerrigan got a medical bye years ago which different from the selection criteria being discussed here.

 

[Moxiejan]

Seriously - how often has that criteria been used? It's been on the books for 20+ years and I think only once for the ladies. Kerrigan got a medical bye years ago which different from the selection criteria being discussed here.

The relevant question: How often has the reigning U.S. Champ & only GPF medalist in the field finished 4th?
Answer: Once, in 2014.

Really, folks seem to keep claiming that selection rules were bent/changed for Ashley, when the truth is that her situation was quite rare in U.S. skating history & indeed was why the selection rules were created. In a case in which the Top 3 included an international newcomer (Polina) and a skater whose Nationals performance was far above recent results (Mirai), the selection committee wanted the option to consider the No. 4 (and No. 5) for the team.

Consider how the selection rules applied to 2010 (two spots): The reigning champion, Alissa Czisny, was widely expected to make the team, but wasn't in the top two. She could not bump someone, because she finished only 10th. On the other hand, the third-place finisher (Ashley Wagner) met SOME of the criteria to be considered for a spot ahead of Flatt and especially Nagasu (weak GP results). But unlike 2014, Wagner didn't have ENOUGH of the criteria & was left off.

The rules in 2014 and 2010 were applied in exactly the same way. For 2018, the scenario is much more like 2010, with no skater having the overwhelming "criteria lead" that Wagner had in 2014. Really, I think the only situation in which the 1-2-3 would not be followed would be a close 4th by Bradie or Ashley (GP medalists) or Karen (reigning champ) behind a 3rd by a newbie (such as Starr).

 

[R.D.]

All this discussion is making me think it is less likely Wagner will get put on the team with a 4th or under finish at Nationals this time around...the big headache, though, that I’m sure the Committee would rather not be faced with, is if someone like Courtney Hicks, Mariah Bell or even Polina Edmunds winds up 3rd ahead of her.

 

[andromache]

The rules in 2014 and 2010 were applied in exactly the same way. For 2018, the scenario is much more like 2010, with no skater having the overwhelming "criteria lead" that Wagner had in 2014. Really, I think the only situation in which the 1-2-3 would not be followed would be a close 4th by Bradie or Ashley (GP medalists) or Karen (reigning champ) behind a 3rd by a newbie (such as Starr).

Really, my worst nightmare is Karen/Ashley finishing 4th behind a newbie like Starr or Tessa Hong or another skater who was unable to deliver on the JGP this season. (Really do not understand the Starr Andrews hype, other than her old viral video. Her results have not been extremely promising internationally - not even a little bit promising.) Emmy Ma, at the very least, has a JGP bronze and did a decent LP at Zagreb.

If that situation was to happen, I think USFS would be justified in sending Karen/Ashley over the junior-level skater. But if that decision was made, there would be an incredible amount of blowback, ESPECIALLY if it happened to Ashley.

That said, there aren't any junior ladies with the rep that Polina had in 2014.

 

[FSLover17]

All this discussion is making me think it is less likely Wagner will get put on the team with a 4th or under finish at Nationals this time around...the big headache, though, that I’m sure the Committee would rather not be faced with, is if someone like Courtney Hicks, Mariah Bell or even Polina Edmunds winds up 3rd ahead of her.

If its this order:
1) Mirai
2) Bradie
3) Mariah
4) Ashley
I think in this scenario Ashley would be left behind. It does depend on the scores though. If the scores were:
1) Mirai - 200
2) Bradie - 190
3) Mariah - 180
4) Ashley - 179
Then I think a close fourth would cause Ashley to be chosen over Mariah. If the point gap between them was bigger, then the Committee would have to think hard. If we replaced Mariah there with Courtney or Polina, Ashley would be sent. With Mariah, it is hard to say as her season's best is higher than Ashley's but Ashley has a Grand Prix medal and beat Mariah on 3 occasions last year.

 

[FSLover17]

Really, my worst nightmare is Karen/Ashley finishing 4th behind a newbie like Starr or Tessa Hong or another skater who was unable to deliver on the JGP this season.
That said, there aren't any junior ladies with the rep that Polina had in 2014.

Ashley/Karen would definitely be sent in that scenario. They're VERY good skaters but I'm not sure the Committee would want to count on them to deliver at the Olympics

 

[Ares]

Really, my worst nightmare is Karen/Ashley finishing 4th behind a newbie like Starr or Tessa Hong or another skater who was unable to deliver on the JGP this season. (Really do not understand the Starr Andrews hype, other than her old viral video. Her results have not been extremely promising internationally - not even a little bit promising.) Emmy Ma, at the very least, has a JGP bronze and did a decent LP at Zagreb.

If that situation was to happen, I think USFS would be justified in sending Karen/Ashley over the junior-level skater. But if that decision was made, there would be an incredible amount of blowback, ESPECIALLY if it happened to Ashley.

That said, there aren't any junior ladies with the rep that Polina had in 2014.

I don't know why Frank Caroll still has Tessa Hong contunuing with this backloaded LP. You'd think that after her infamous Nationals LP fiasco they would change their strategy, but she still goes for that and her starts are very disappointing. I watched one of her JGP events, and that was a mess of epic proportions once again (the only difference this time was less pops but more < & << & stumbles everywhere, not just on jumps).

 

[qwerty]

Idle thoughts: I wonder if it would behoove Ashley, mathematically, to drop the 3-3s in both her programs. Seeing Kostner's success with fewer triples is making me question the strategy of planning combos that will very likely be under-rotated. Psychologically, I'm sure it would be unhelpful to water down the content, and I also know Ashley won't pull Kostner PCS. Just curious if the higher GOE for clean jumps would help.

 

[JustMe]

Just re-watched the 2016 US Nationals' ladies final, and I find it surreal that neither Gracie, nor Polina (by the looks of it) are a factor for the Olympic team.
:noshake:

 

[andromache]

Tom Z. was the one who started Tessa on the backloaded LP train. Is Frank really still having her do it? That doesn't seem like him...he's very traditional.

Also: http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2017/24265/results.html

Per this Sectionals protocol, it looks like Tessa wasn't backloading.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

All this discussion is making me think it is less likely Wagner will get put on the team with a 4th or under finish at Nationals this time around...the big headache, though, that I’m sure the Committee would rather not be faced with, is if someone like Courtney Hicks, Mariah Bell or even Polina Edmunds winds up 3rd ahead of her.

I agree with you. It would be quite controversial because putting her on the team would involve looking at her past events that aren't part of the selection of competitions to be considered. She WD from a well-skated Skate America event, where she very likely would have missed the podium because she has only surpassed the score Bradie posted once in her entire career.

 

[concorde]

Ashley/Karen would definitely be sent in that scenario. They're VERY good skaters but I'm not sure the Committee would want to count on them to deliver at the Olympics

I think the Worlds selection is more important than the Olympics since slots are on the line for the following year.

In some ways, I can see the Olympic spots being based on the actual finishes but the World selection being based on that 3 have the best chances of keeping the 3 slots.

 

[FSLover17]

Idle thoughts: I wonder if it would behoove Ashley, mathematically, to drop the 3-3s in both her programs. Seeing Kostner's success with fewer triples is making me question the strategy of planning combos that will very likely be under-rotated. Psychologically, I'm sure it would be unhelpful to water down the content, and I also know Ashley won't pull Kostner PCS. Just curious if the higher GOE for clean jumps would help.

What layout would you have her do? I would have her do:
3F-2Lo
3S
3Lo-2T-2T
---
2A-3S
3Lo
3F
3Lz
I'm aware that she doesn't train the 2A-3S or 3F-2L but she's done them in the past. That would give her a jumping base value of 45.71 points compare to her jumping base value from Skate Canada which was 37.21 and the world team trophy which was 41.48.

 

[FSLover17]

I think the Worlds selection is more important than the Olympics since slots are on the line for the following year.

In some ways, I can see the Olympic spots being based on the actual finishes but the World selection being based on that 3 have the best chances of keeping the 3 slots.

:thumbsup: The US committee have to send their best team to worlds if they want to maintain 3 spots.

 

[icellist]

If the 2014 Olympics/Worlds selection scenario occurs again (Denney/Coughlin, Max Aaron for world, no Olympics), such as Ashley didn't medal at nationals so is not chosen for Pyeongchang but USFSA still trusts her to get 3 spots next year, did y'all think Ashley will go to Worlds?

 

[Spirals for Miles]

What layout would you have her do? I would have her do:
3F-2Lo
3S
3Lo-2T-2T
---
2A-3S
3Lo
3F
3Lz
I'm aware that she doesn't train the 2A-3S or 3F-2L but she's done them in the past. That would give her a jumping base value of 45.71 points compare to her jumping base value from Skate Canada which was 37.21 and the world team trophy which was 41.48.

She can't do that because you can only have 1 three-jump combo.
So she can do 3Lo-2T or 3Lo-2Lo alongside 3F-2Lo and 2A-1Lo-3S but those are really low value combos besides the three jump one...
She just needs to get her UR issues under control, not change layouts right now at this moment in time.

 

[andromache]

If the 2014 Olympics/Worlds selection scenario occurs again (Denney/Coughlin, Max Aaron for world, no Olympics), such as Ashley didn't medal at nationals so is not chosen for Pyeongchang but USFSA still trusts her to get 3 spots next year, did y'all think Ashley will go to Worlds?

Hard to say. I can't imagine a World medalist / former Olympian wants to end their career on being passed over for the Olympics and sent to Worlds for the spots. Continuing to train and train to be ready for Worlds while everyone else is at the Olympics is probably incredibly tough, physically and emotionally.

(Max wasn't retiring - Worlds was an opportunity to set himself up for the following season, so it's a different situation.)

 

[FSLover17]

She can't do that because you can only have 1 three-jump combo.
So she can do 3Lo-2T or 3Lo-2Lo alongside 3F-2Lo and 2A-1Lo-3S but those are really low value combos besides the three jump one...[/QUOTE/]
Oh ok what about doing 3S-2A instead like in 2013?

She just needs to get her UR issues under control, not change layouts right now at this moment in time.[/QUOTE/]
I know I was just answering the question of whether it would be mathematically beneficial

 

[chuckm]

If the 2014 Olympics/Worlds selection scenario occurs again (Denney/Coughlin, Max Aaron for world, no Olympics), such as Ashley didn't medal at nationals so is not chosen for Pyeongchang but USFSA still trusts her to get 3 spots next year, did y'all think Ashley will go to Worlds?

How motivated would Ashley be to do well at Worlds if she is out of the Os, seeing as she is planning to retire at the end of the year? The same could be said for Mirai if she doesn't make the Olympic team but is named for Worlds.

It's going to be hard to keep the 3 spots with 3 very strong Russian ladies, two resurgent Japanese ladies, and at least one Canadian lady pushing for the top spots. And with Worlds in Italy, never count Kostner out.

 

[mrrice]

Hard to say. I can't imagine a World medalist / former Olympian wants to end their career on being passed over for the Olympics and sent to Worlds for the spots. Continuing to train and train to be ready for Worlds while everyone else is at the Olympics is probably incredibly tough, physically and emotionally.

(Max wasn't retiring - Worlds was an opportunity to set himself up for the following season, so it's a different situation.)

This is a tough decision for Ashley should she miss the team and be invited to go to Worlds. When Tonia Kwiatkowski missed the team in 1998, Worlds were in the US and Minnesota was not a big trip to make from Ohio. Flying to Italy is a totally different thing. The way that things ended for her at Skate America, leads me to believe that if Ashley misses the team, it may be not worth it to fly all the way to Italy for "Redemption" I think I'd save the money and do something else. There will be a ton of shows for her to skate in following the Olympics and I'm sure she'll be invited to skate in all of them like Gracie was last year.

Let's just hope her inner Diva surfaces and she skates her way onto the team without the need for the committee to hold her up!!