2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[Bluediamonds09]

No one, literally. The most likely podium finisher at this point, Bradie, has placed no higher than 6th in any previous Nationals.

But there are ways to manipulate PCS, so I still believe that Ashley and Karen will be shoo-ins for the podium. I know nothing of how they’re training is going, but still.
And since it doesn’t look like any young upstarts will come through breaking down doors, that makes it more likely in favor of Ashley and Karen.

 

[macy]

The thing is, URs continue to be a persistent problem for US ladies who were born when 6.0 was in the process of being dismantled. Karen Chen has UR problems. Our junior ladies have UR problems. Tech panels are letting URs slide domestically, and that's enabling these bad habits at an age when it would be much easier to fix them early on.

why is this a problem domestically though? why are our judges lenient like this? it doesn't make sense to me when these girls are obviously getting dinged internationally and not winning medals.

 

[Skater Boy]

I am not totally sold on Bradie. Yes she has potential to win and she did win a GPF and imho she has been on the radar. But one GP medal doesn't make you a shoo in or clear favorite. She could be like many bronze medallists - poor Gabby Daleman may be headed in that direction - kind of one shot wonders who sneak on to the podium - I think of that Israeli dance team, German dance team, Bobek, Sawchenko, Gachinski, maybe even Boyang, Dube and Davison,

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

But there are ways to manipulate PCS, so I still believe that Ashley and Karen will be shoo-ins for the podium.

The judges can manipulate scores by ignoring wrong edges and under rotations. If the women are falling or popping jumps, there isn't much the judges can do to save them. I think Ashley can probably stay on her feet and secure a spot, but Karen I am less confident about. I don't think the USFSA is especially committed to sending Karen given her results this season. Right now, I'd guess:
Probably on the podium: Bradie, Ashley
Might be on the podium: Mirai, Karen
Probably not on the podium, but stranger things have happened: Mariah, Polina, Courtney, Angela

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I would agree except for I think that is more like:
Probably on the podium: Bradie, Mirai
Might be on the podium: Ashley
Chances at podium: Karen, Mariah, Courtney, Angela, and Polina

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

But one GP medal doesn't make you a shoo in or clear favorite.

It isn't only the Skate America bronze that would make Bradie the favorite.

1) She has the highest SP, LP, and Total scores of the season.
2) She also has the second highest LP and Total scores of the season.
3) She was the strongest of the second tier skaters gunning for the Skate America spot over the summer.
4) I think she is the only skater who has won a senior international event this season.
5) She is one of two skaters to win a GP medal this season, and would have beaten the other at Skate America had Ashley completed her LP.

Of course, all bets are off at Nationals, but if there is a favorite, it is Bradie.

EDIT: One other thing that might help Bradie is that most people still don't know who she is. Despite her successes this season, Braide might be overshadowed by Ashley, Karen, and Mirai when it comes to attention from the media. It's probably a good thing.

 

[R.D.]

Favorite? No...but that said, I will say she’s nothing to lose and that alone could make her dangerous. OTOH, you’ve got Wagner, Nagasu, Chen and (to a lesser degree) Bell who are directly dealing with the Olympic hype (and in some cases sponsors) and that will translate to more pressure on them when the moment comes.

 

[apgold]

If Bradie skates at Nationals like she did at SA (2 clean programs), she is a threat for the podium and possibly the title. But no guarantees, either. Her PCS may be held back in favor of another skater, who knows?

Interestingly, I got an email from USFS saying to get tickets to the FS since they are going fast. Bradie is nowhere to be seen on the email, but they highlight Ashley, Karen, Mirai and Mariah.

 

[andromache]

If Bradie skates at Nationals like she did at SA (2 clean programs), she is a threat for the podium and possibly the title. But no guarantees, either. Her PCS may be held back in favor of another skater, who knows?

If Bradie skates like she did at SA, she will 100% be on the podium, unless Ashley/Karen/Mirai all also skate clean, which isn't going to happen.

 

[skylark]

if compatriot Wagner departs as expected,

Who expects Wagner to depart? Who is a better authority on her current plans than Ashley herself?

Artsciboy posted the following three days ago, post #4351 on p. 291 of this thread:

For the record, Ashley has never said that she was retiring at the end of this year. If anything, I recall her stating very clearly that she wasn't going to put that added pressure on top of an already stressful Olympic season.

That's exactly what I remember Ashley saying, the only time she addressed the subject.

 

[andromache]

Who expects Wagner to depart? Who is a better authority on her current plans than Ashley herself?

Artsciboy posted the following three days ago, post #4351 on p. 291 of this thread:



That's exactly what I remember Ashley saying, the only time she addressed the subject.

Even if she hasn't said it, I think assuming that she plans to retire isn't the most unreasonable assumption to make. From her perspective, it's completely reasonable to keep any intentions to yourself (or even to convince yourself that you have no intentions at all) so as to avoid all the pressure and buzz that comes along with someone's ~final season~. It's easier to go about your skating season as normal, from a mental perspective.

But we as fans can still think that it's more likely than not that Ashley will probably retire after this season.

 

[icybear]

I am not totally sold on Bradie. Yes she has potential to win and she did win a GPF and imho she has been on the radar. But one GP medal doesn't make you a shoo in or clear favorite. She could be like many bronze medallists - poor Gabby Daleman may be headed in that direction - kind of one shot wonders who sneak on to the podium - I think of that Israeli dance team, German dance team, Bobek, Sawchenko, Gachinski, maybe even Boyang, Dube and Davison,

But Boyang has 2 bronze medal. So he's a two shot wonder. And he's probably going to win more Worlds medals too

 

[LiamForeman]

Even if she hasn't said it, I think assuming that she plans to retire isn't the most unreasonable assumption to make. From her perspective, it's completely reasonable to keep any intentions to yourself (or even to convince yourself that you have no intentions at all) so as to avoid all the pressure and buzz that comes along with someone's ~final season~. It's easier to go about your skating season as normal, from a mental perspective.

But we as fans can still think that it's more likely than not that Ashley will probably retire after this season.

Especially since Ashley made a comment that she only stayed in because she thought she was competitive for an individual Olympic medal. Seems the Olympics are the end of the road for her. If she even makes the team I predict she won't be competing at Worlds. Her skills are not only NOT keeping up with the sonograms but have been deteriorating. The writing is on the wall.

 

[klutzy]

The thing is, URs continue to be a persistent problem for US ladies who were born when 6.0 was in the process of being dismantled. Karen Chen has UR problems. Our junior ladies have UR problems. Tech panels are letting URs slide domestically, and that's enabling these bad habits at an age when it would be much easier to fix them early on.

Yes, I think it's less about the skaters learning under the 6.0 system than the coaches and tech controllers all coming from the 6.0 system. The U.S. turned out skater after skater who thrived under the 6.0 system. It's hard for people to change their habits, particularly when they've had success with them and our ideas, in the U.S., of what makes a beautiful skater are still formed by skaters, such as Michelle Kwan, from the 6.0 era.

We're doing better in disciplines (ice dance and mens) where we weren't dominant in the same way.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Especially since Ashley made a comment that she only stayed in because she thought she was competitive for an individual Olympic medal. Seems the Olympics are the end of the road for her. If she even makes the team I predict she won't be competing at Worlds. Her skills are not only NOT keeping up with the sonograms but have been deteriorating. The writing is on the wall.

I agree with you and andromache. In addition to the technical problems she's been having, she is increasingly having to deal with various injuries and issues related to her concussions. With the Olympics around the corner, it's probably worth it for her to tough it out for another few months, but I don't think she would want to continue the grueling training regimen if she isn't going to be competitive internationally.

 

[NAOTMAA]

But there are ways to manipulate PCS, so I still believe that Ashley and Karen will be shoo-ins for the podium. I know nothing of how they’re training is going, but still.
And since it doesn’t look like any young upstarts will come through breaking down doors, that makes it more likely in favor of Ashley and Karen.

Its funny you put Karen in the same category as Ashley. Ashley, at 26, is 8 years older then Karen. That's two full Olympic cycles! In skating two Olympic cycles is like two decades.

Ashley is clearly a 6.0 child who had the unfortunate luck of making her competitive debut just as 6.0 was dying. But Karen, who is only 18, was born a mere 6 years before the invention of COP is not. She should be COP with every fiber of her body. When Ashley was taking about those sonograms she was taking about girls Karen's age group!

In Russia and Japan its Karen's generation that's currently center stage and dominating. Medvedeva and Satoko (ages 18 and 19 respectively) already had big success and are now fighting to hold their positions against the as you put it "young upstarts" in Alina (15), Tsurskaya (16), Wakaba (16) and Kaori (17). Meanwhile the Ashley generation is either long gone retired or complete none factors (grandma Alena Leonova, 27).

The fact that we put Karen and Ashley in the same group together just shows how bad the situation in the US is. And there are no Alina's or Wakaba's to pick things up. Bradie (age 19) is still a question mark and Gracie's departure left a huge hole that put things back to 2010 nightmares

 

[charlotte14]

The fact that we put Karen and Ashley in the same group together just shows how bad the situation in the US is. And there are no Alina's or Wakaba's to pick things up. Bradie (age 19) is still a question mark and Gracie's departure left a huge hole that put things back to 2010 nightmares

At least Mirai came 4th at the Olympic 2010? That girl can be relied when it comes to the olympics.

 

[chuckm]

At least Mirai came 4th at the Olympic 2010? That girl can be relied when it comes to the olympics.

That was EIGHT YEARS AGO! Mirai was 16 then, and a completely different skater---she actually showed expression when she competed! Now she is 24 and when she competes, her focus is completely on the technical aspects of her skating.

As for being reliable, who knows which Mirai will show up at a competition: the one at CoR this year who finished 9th, or the one at NHK who finished 4th. And the more important the competition, the more pressure she puts on herself. At Nationals, she almost always turns in a great SP, but the FS has been her nemesis more often than not.

 

[charlotte14]

That was EIGHT YEARS AGO! Mirai was 16 then, and a completely different skater---she actually showed expression when she competed! Now she is 24 and when she competes, her focus is completely on the technical aspects of her skating.

As for being reliable, who knows which Mirai will show up at a competition: the one at CoR this year who finished 9th, or the one at NHK who finished 4th. And the more important the competition, the more pressure she puts on herself. At Nationals, she almost always turns in a great SP, but the FS has been her nemesis more often than not.

I would say Nationals is her nemesis, not the other competitions. She put too much stress at Nationals.

 

[Jammers]

Its funny you put Karen in the same category as Ashley. Ashley, at 26, is 8 years older then Karen. That's two full Olympic cycles! In skating two Olympic cycles is like two decades.

Ashley is clearly a 6.0 child who had the unfortunate luck of making her competitive debut just as 6.0 was dying. But Karen, who is only 18, was born a mere 6 years before the invention of COP is not. She should be COP with every fiber of her body. When Ashley was taking about those sonograms she was taking about girls Karen's age group!

In Russia and Japan its Karen's generation that's currently center stage and dominating. Medvedeva and Satoko (ages 18 and 19 respectively) already had big success and are now fighting to hold their positions against the as you put it "young upstarts" in Alina (15), Tsurskaya (16), Wakaba (16) and Kaori (17). Meanwhile the Ashley generation is either long gone retired or complete none factors (grandma Alena Leonova, 27).

The fact that we put Karen and Ashley in the same group together just shows how bad the situation in the US is. And there are no Alina's or Wakaba's to pick things up. Bradie (age 19) is still a question mark and Gracie's departure left a huge hole that put things back to 2010 nightmares

I agree. if the US had ladies the age of the top Japanese and Russian girls who were just as good as them then older skaters like Ashley and Mirai would most likely have retired by now for not being able to keep up or stick around and be a non contender like Leonova.