I was talking about Konstantinova, not Gubanova's senior
2017-18 State of Russian Ladies skating
- Thread starter moriel
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I was talking about Konstantinova, not Gubanova's senior
Fair enough, especially considering 2005 year didn't bring supernovas, except more less good skater as Alena Kanysheva. Still, there are also a few good girls of 03' - Vasilieva and of 04' - Sinitsyna, Kostyuk, not to mention Shcherbakova + three JGPF medalist, which are not eligible for the seniors next season.
And now, let's take a look at seniors:
How it could be having no chances for seniors when Leonova had two spots this season? I also can't see (at least for now) the bright future for Radio and Tukt. They have time, of course, Kostner is a good example. But if we take a look at competitive skaters, then: Medvedeva, Zagitova, Sotskova, Panenkova, Konstantinova, probably Fedichkina after moving to papa Mishin, will see, can he help her with tiny axel, which is very often just 1A this season, with her URs and stamina (both problems were even during her great JGP debut), Samodurova - consistent skater, but weak PCS. Pogorilaya's status is unknown. ABBA lost already to both Kurakova and Tarusina. Sakhanovich and Nugumanova? Don't know. Gulyakova? Will be interesting, but her PCS are weak. Gubanova? Well it would be great, if she will get back her previous shape + stable jumps. Also, Tarusina already competed at ISU Challenger in junior category and won with strong 187.84 - being out from nowhere. That was her first international ISU competition, I believe. Her score is even higher than score of winner of senior category - Tursynbaeva.
Kurakova's case is another, they don't send her anywhere except local competitions, and moreover now she's busy with Averbukh's shows, but still, her potential is about 67-70 points for the short program, and 130+ points for the free program.
And finally, let's take a look at full picture:
Juniors for the next season: Trusova, Kostornaya, Tarakanova, Shcherbakova, Vasilieva, Sinitsyna, Kanysheva, Kostyuk, Rubtsova, Guseva, Moroz, Chistyakova, Emelyanova.
Seniors: Medvedeva, Zagitova, Sotskova, Panenkova, Konstantinova, Tsurskaya, Gubanova + Samodurova, Nugumanova, Fedichkina, Sakhanovich, Radionova, Tuktamysheva, Pogoroilaya, Mikhailova.
Do you believe it's better for them to steal chances from upcoming junior wave (not so talented tho, but still), than trying to beat those seniors who are going after '+'? I mean, even if they won't have chances for getting GP stages, this is not a reason to take away JGP's stages from hands of other talented skaters, as that was with Vasilieva, and could happen with Kostornaya. Sure, Tarusina and Vasilieva have the same year of birth, but unlike Tarusina, Vasilieva has no reputation even at local competitions, while Tarusina already beat Panenkova at one of the Russian Cup stages. I also believe her scores at Russian Nationals should be higher, not lower than Panenkova's.
Both Tarusina and Kurakova were victims of circumstances. Tarusina - bus crash and she's out from her first JGP. Kurakova - late star, she started to shine not so long ago. But it doesn't mean they need to stay in juniors, especailly if they will face with one of four first juniors. Remember Gulyakova's case in Australia: silver medal and she's only substitute. For one JGP stage they have to stay there? Pointless. Better to attend to three ISU Challengers and win them all, and then will defeat some of other girls, who competed at GP stages, at Nationals.
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- Aug 16, 2017
If only they could export some of their ladies to other countries... if only FS were more popular in Europe, the exporting fee alone might be enough for Russian fed to become millionaire.
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- Nov 2, 2013
I don't see all of them moving up to seniors, certainly. While there will be some upcoming talent, there are no especially great talents in the next age group. Trusova, Kostornaia, Tarakanova and Shcherbakova are the only spots locked up, obviously as it's the strongest age group Russia's ever had. After that, there's a decent amount of room in my opinion. Of course, it's too early to make such claims because the skaters can improve rapidly, but that'll likely account for just one skater(or none) having rapid improvement / enlightenment. That still would leave 2 JGP slots filled with good-but-not-great skaters if everyone that could did end up moving up to seniors.
On the other hand, seniors are currently lacking in depth as well. It's quite debatable whether they even are stronger overall than the juniors, at least after the top two or so.
There's Medvedeva, Zagitova, Sotskova and Tsurskaya, but already both Sotskova and Tsurskaya are skaters I'm not exactly sold on being significantly better than someone like Gubanova. Even Panenkova would likely be an improvement over the next tier(Which would be the likes of Tuktamysheva, Radionova, Fedichkina, Pogorilaya(?) etc.). In fact, she's probably rather comparable to how Sotskova was in her first senior season(In my opinion, Sotskova got pushed due to lack of depth - She's not that good). Both are rather boring skaters lacking in artistry but Panenkova's probably more skilled relative to age overall. Tsurskaya benefited from a weak age group - she's also in danger next season already as she's not nearly established or consistent enough and just isn't nearly as talented as Gubanova outside of jumps in my opinion. Of course, I don't think that highly of Konstantinova but it's possible she also could replace the next tier of skaters. And I guess it's also possible she could be stronger than Panenkova for next season?
The important thing to consider from the perspective of these skaters is that next season's going to be essentially impossible to get to seniors because of Trusova, Tarakanova, Kostornaia and Shcherbakova(?) all being so strong and likely getting a total of 8 GP spots amongst them. Assuming Medvedeva, Zagitova are at a decent level and perhaps even Sotskova still getting by, there really is no room for essentially anyone else barring some magical achievements. That's why everyone who possibly can do so is going to try their very best to move to seniors next season already, so that they can try and build some reputation and gain some momentum because after that season, it already is too late.
Logically, it depends on what Russia wants to do. They probably should try to overscore Gubanova as much as possible(if even necessary) and hence get her on the jr worlds team, simply because she needs it so much as it's going to be very, very difficult for her to move up to seniors a season later. It depends on how highly they view her potential. Which unfortunately doesn't seem to be very highly... So I'm worried. Now, personally I wouldn't want them to do so and would prefer seeing them just scoring the best skaters accurately. But that's what they logically should do if they want to give Gubanova the opportunity to establish herself as a senior the next season already(Panenkova, Konstantinova shouldn't have such worries).
On the other hand, seniors are currently lacking in depth as well. It's quite debatable whether they even are stronger overall than the juniors, at least after the top two or so.
There's Medvedeva, Zagitova, Sotskova and Tsurskaya, but already both Sotskova and Tsurskaya are skaters I'm not exactly sold on being significantly better than someone like Gubanova. Even Panenkova would likely be an improvement over the next tier(Which would be the likes of Tuktamysheva, Radionova, Fedichkina, Pogorilaya(?) etc.). In fact, she's probably rather comparable to how Sotskova was in her first senior season(In my opinion, Sotskova got pushed due to lack of depth - She's not that good). Both are rather boring skaters lacking in artistry but Panenkova's probably more skilled relative to age overall. Tsurskaya benefited from a weak age group - she's also in danger next season already as she's not nearly established or consistent enough and just isn't nearly as talented as Gubanova outside of jumps in my opinion. Of course, I don't think that highly of Konstantinova but it's possible she also could replace the next tier of skaters. And I guess it's also possible she could be stronger than Panenkova for next season?
The important thing to consider from the perspective of these skaters is that next season's going to be essentially impossible to get to seniors because of Trusova, Tarakanova, Kostornaia and Shcherbakova(?) all being so strong and likely getting a total of 8 GP spots amongst them. Assuming Medvedeva, Zagitova are at a decent level and perhaps even Sotskova still getting by, there really is no room for essentially anyone else barring some magical achievements. That's why everyone who possibly can do so is going to try their very best to move to seniors next season already, so that they can try and build some reputation and gain some momentum because after that season, it already is too late.
Logically, it depends on what Russia wants to do. They probably should try to overscore Gubanova as much as possible(if even necessary) and hence get her on the jr worlds team, simply because she needs it so much as it's going to be very, very difficult for her to move up to seniors a season later. It depends on how highly they view her potential. Which unfortunately doesn't seem to be very highly... So I'm worried. Now, personally I wouldn't want them to do so and would prefer seeing them just scoring the best skaters accurately. But that's what they logically should do if they want to give Gubanova the opportunity to establish herself as a senior the next season already(Panenkova, Konstantinova shouldn't have such worries).
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- Mar 8, 2013
I predict following teams
Junior Worlds: Kostornaya, Trusova, Gubanova. I think if Nastya performs well at Junior Nationals and after her good showing at Senior Nationals Fed will consider moving her to Seniors next season. Therefore, she needs SB and points.
Senior Worlds: 2 girls from Olympics team+Konstantinova. I think one of the girls might skip Worlds but they will ensure that 2 others go not to risk losing 3 spots as Konstantinova is super inconsistent and Tsurskaya can be amazing but still learning how to cope with nerves (as mentioned in her interview post-Nationals)
Junior Worlds: Kostornaya, Trusova, Gubanova. I think if Nastya performs well at Junior Nationals and after her good showing at Senior Nationals Fed will consider moving her to Seniors next season. Therefore, she needs SB and points.
Senior Worlds: 2 girls from Olympics team+Konstantinova. I think one of the girls might skip Worlds but they will ensure that 2 others go not to risk losing 3 spots as Konstantinova is super inconsistent and Tsurskaya can be amazing but still learning how to cope with nerves (as mentioned in her interview post-Nationals)
That's an idea, but still, organize NFSL will be much smarter and better.
Because, for example, if we'll start to talk about just average skaters, I mean, with average scores about 160-180 points, you can find a lot of skaters like that. And how sad is that, when you do your best, easy jump 3-3, but can't even qualify to National Cup stages. If we look in the future, this looks very scary. Only three skaters can compete internationally at Euro, WC or OG, but they're all so good. Every year there will be more and more amazing skaters. And what to do previous skaters?
Or Russia will find someone with brains and will organize NFSL (which is very doubtful, if they even have no idea that broadcasting of Juniors and organize Juniors Gala will bring them big money and big joy for viewers) or parents will see this sport as pointless for their child, especially when she has to spend a lot of time on the ice, but without any hopes to be in the top 3. And after that Russia will get again a recession period in Ladies' figure skating.
Sure, Rhythmic Gymnastic in Russia still somehow survives, but it's just Rhythmic Gymnastic which is for girls. There are no men, pairs, dance, synchro or other competitions. And yet, there are only TWO girls are allowed to compete at international level. They also can organize NRGL, considering that sport life of rhythmic gymnast is even shorter than life of figure skater. But nope, nobody cares.
Well, I'm not sure about Gubanova, you saw her scores for the free program at Russian Nationals. But if we look at Tarakanova's scores, especailly at her scores at JGPF, she lost about 4 points to Kostornaya and 6 points to Trusova in the short program. Judges somehow didn't appreciate her program components yet. So even if both are clean, I guess it would be close scores between two Nastyas. So don't even know. And still, there is Stanislava. Is there a rule for qualification for Juniors? I mean, for seniors there is: 2+1, maybe in juniors it's another way? If Konstantinova will be 1st-2nd, can federation don't send her to the JW? But I guess they will, especially if she's their next season favorite, and current too.
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- Nov 2, 2013
If everyone skates clean, I see the scores among these as:
Konstantinova
Trusova
Kostornaia
Tarakanova
Gubanova
But it's slightly more interesting than that due to some skaters having consistency issues.
Assuming Shcherbakova actually gets to participate, something I'm really interested in seeing is how well Shcherbakova actually scores if she skates completely clean. Where exactly does she stand in PCS in comparison to others after zero exposure earlier this season, I wonder? 72-73 TES FS potential she has even without a quad, that's for sure.
I really hope it will be this girl! Davydov's skater. She struggles with lutz, but if she's on, her skating and jumps are beautiful!
She should be skating with Shcherbakova this weekend, right? Her name's still grayed out, however...
Yeah, I agree with the order. But about Shcherbakova, did you see Guseva's first skating after injury? That was... She was like an average skater with horrible jumps, I didn't believe this is she. I hope Anna's in better state.
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- Nov 2, 2013
That's true, of course... We don't even need to look at Guseva for this, really. We can see how Anya herself was immediately after returning from her last injury. She made silly mistakes on spins(Fall on entry??) and even forgot a jumping pass on her FS for no reason.
On the other hand, this time while the injury was far more serious, she also has even been training jumps for a lot longer after recovering from it than she had the last time. We'll really not know where she's at without seeing her skate... But even if the technical content is not there, she will not have lost her biggest strengths.
Aah, the endless speculation is really driving me crazy. 5 days from now... I remember when it was 20 days - 3/4 of the way there.
There, there.
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- Feb 4, 2017
while you waiting, there is something to read 
https://www.sports.ru/tribuna/blogs/lovelyfigure/1533361.html
https://www.sports.ru/tribuna/blogs/lovelyfigure/1533361.html
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- Aug 25, 2017
Who I think the JWC team will be:
Konstantinova, Trusova, and Kostornaya
Konstantinova massively overscored at jr. nationals and somehow wins it all, unless she withdraws in case she is needed as a Euro alternate (at similar times) I could actually see that happening
In which case, I'd put it at Trusova, Kostornaya, and Panenkova (trying to get Panenkova a chance at a higher SB to really ensure 2 GPs next year)
I wish I could see four skaters: Trusova, Kostornaya, Tarakanova, and Panenkova
Gubanova needs a higher SB but the fed does not love her and she has a coach with no reputation. Plus she struggles with inconsistency and has wonky jump technique. Very overscored in my opinion.
Konstantinova, Trusova, and Kostornaya
Konstantinova massively overscored at jr. nationals and somehow wins it all, unless she withdraws in case she is needed as a Euro alternate (at similar times) I could actually see that happening
In which case, I'd put it at Trusova, Kostornaya, and Panenkova (trying to get Panenkova a chance at a higher SB to really ensure 2 GPs next year)
I wish I could see four skaters: Trusova, Kostornaya, Tarakanova, and Panenkova
Gubanova needs a higher SB but the fed does not love her and she has a coach with no reputation. Plus she struggles with inconsistency and has wonky jump technique. Very overscored in my opinion.
Hmm, interesting inconsistency in puberty period:
Season 2017/18
Russian Championship 2018 - 6 (206.60)
Tallinn Trophy 2017 - 1 jun. (189.31)
III stage of the Russian Cup 2017-2 (199.95)
Coupe de Nice 2017 - 1 jun. (188.30)
I stage of the Russian Cup 2017 - 2 (189.31)
JGP in Austria 2017 - 4 (160.75)
Just one failed competition this season.
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- Aug 25, 2017
But at the most important competition (besides Russian Nationals, which shouldn't be too stressful as she's not competing for senior spots) she bombed...
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- Dec 29, 2013
Gubanova only had one bad competition and then landed every jump in like three straight events including Russian Nationals. Biggest event on her season too!! Where is one event that she can be considered objectively overscored this year? It blows my mind seeing the negativity heaped upon her. I wish she’d come represent America! She’s be national champion with her performances this season!
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- Dec 29, 2013
Not too stressful?? It’s where skaters earn their fundings for the following season? Certainly it’s stressful to know your future is in the hands of someone else regardless of how well you perform. This is for everyone involved too.
I don't get it too. She is a pure talent. It's rare these days. She, Shcherbakova, Tarakanova. I guess that's all. I hope soon she will used to her new body and will fix her lutz. Such a talent should shine on the ice.
