2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Mathman]

According to Jackie, Adam is replacing the 4Z with a 2A (3.3) AND upgrading his 3F3L to 3Z3L (+.07)= total 4.0.

Since a 4Z < with a fall is 4.5, he’s only sacrificing 0.5 in BV, which he will likely more than make up for in +GOE.

As to Raf, the only thing I’m a bit surprised about is that he revealed the substitution publicly. The whole point of the secrecy is to keep your opponents guessing as to strategy. We now no longer have that advantage.

Thanks for the details. I totally agree with the strategy. Skate beautifully. Help your team in the team event. Aim for top 6 in individuals. Don't open your program with a << and a fall. Go Adam!

As to keeping your opponents guessing, frankly I think that the other skaters are concentrating on their own programs at this point.

 

[Mrs. P]

According to Jackie Wong, the "nomination" of skaters for the Team Men/Pairs will be in about 40 minutes (10 a.m. Korea time)

Here's the results page to bookmark
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/owg2018/

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I thought Jackie said they were doing it at 8 Korea time?

 

[mrrice]

Correct, the Men's Team Event begins at 8 PM Eastern in the US, but I can't find what time any of the individual competitors perform.

The Men's individual event is scheduled to begin on the 16th. That's a week later than the team event. Now I know why skaters think they can do both.

 

[Mrs. P]

I thought Jackie said they were doing it at 8 Korea time?

10 a.m. per this: https://twitter.com/rockerskating/status/961295121881812992

 

[el henry]

Thanks for the details. I totally agree with the strategy. Skate beautifully. Help your team in the team event. Aim for top 6 in individuals. Don't open your program with a << and a fall. Go Adam!

As to keeping your opponents guessing, frankly I think that the other skaters are concentrating on their own programs at this point.

The other skaters may be concentrating on their own skates (I would hope so!), but "ye olde team officials" may not be.

Let's posit that Team USA by some miracle is within shooting distance of a team gold after the SPs. What do they do? Do they hold open the option to ask Nathan to skate instead of Adam (assuming that is the choice?) And what does Nathan do? "Save" himself for the individual event and the hope of individual gold? Or skate the FP and assure a Team USA gold? But if USA *knows* that Keegan is skating the FP instead of PChiddy, what does USA do?

Or posit the other scenario: Team USA flops tremendously in the SPs and only a high scoring men's FP gives them a chance of contention for the bronze. Do ye olde team officials ask Nathan? Do they decide differently if they know ahead of time that Keegan and/or Pchiddy is skating? Aliev or Kolyada?

If taken seriously, there could indeed be strategy. But maybe Raf doesn't, and maybe ye olde team officials don't, and that's why he spilled the beans

 

[skylark]

Thanks for the details. I totally agree with the strategy. Skate beautifully. Help your team in the team event. Aim for top 6 in individuals. Don't open your program with a << and a fall. Go Adam!

Me too! Go Adam! And since it'll be tomorrow, Go Nathan!

As to Raf, the only thing I’m a bit surprised about is that he revealed the substitution publicly. The whole point of the secrecy is to keep your opponents guessing as to strategy. We now no longer have that advantage.

As to keeping your opponents guessing, frankly I think that the other skaters are concentrating on their own programs at this point.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the strategy a bit of a no-brainer? Nathan's the only USA team member with a pretty good chance of winning his segment. So starting us out with a possible 10 points (or 9) is the best route to a high placement.

And, the possibility exists that Raf and Nathan gave the information via the Hersh interview with USFSA's blessing. Even if I might entertain the idea that Raf would go rogue, I don't really think Nathan would.

 

[Tavi...]

Thanks for the details. I totally agree with the strategy. Skate beautifully. Help your team in the team event. Aim for top 6 in individuals. Don't open your program with a << and a fall. Go Adam!

As to keeping your opponents guessing, frankly I think that the other skaters are concentrating on their own programs at this point.

It’s the federations who are strategizing, i.e., if US uses Adam rather than Nathan in FS, maybe Japan doesn’t use Shoma. Or whatever. Possibly a moot point by now.

ETA: @Skylark, it may or may not be a no brainer, but that’s kind of beside the point. What if Vincent hadn’t been told yet? And as to whether it was disclosed with USFS blessing, I guess none of us really know, but I tend to think that if USFS wanted it disclosed, they would already have announced it officially. If you recall, Bradie apparently posted on her social media and the post was taken down.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

10 a.m. per this: https://twitter.com/rockerskating/status/961295121881812992

So do we know who it is yet? considering it's 10:04 there?

 

[el henry]

It’s the federations who are strategizing, i.e., if US uses Adam rather than Nathan in FS, maybe Japan doesn’t use Shoma. Or whatever. Possibly a moot point by now.

ETA: @Skylark, it may or may not be a no brainer, but that’s kind of beside the point. What if Vincent hadn’t been told yet? And as to whether it was disclosed with USFS blessing, I guess none of us really know, but I tend to think that if USFS wanted it disclosed, they would already have announced it officially. If you recall, Bradie apparently posted on her social media and the post was taken down.

That is exactly what I thought: I sure hope someone told Vincent before that tweet that his most realistic hope of a medal at these games was gone

And again, it makes no difference whether I, 500 fans on 500 Boards, and the drunk on 4th Street see Nathan and Adam as the “obvious” choices, and so of course Vincent “must” have known. Vincent would deserve to hear it from someone official, and not Raf talking to Phil Hersh. And maybe he did. I’m hardly Vincent’s biggest fan, but I sure hope so.

 

[Nathan13]

So do we know who it is yet? considering it's 10:04 there?

Nothing on twitter or the results page.

Why is there so much secrecy?!

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The Men's individual event is scheduled to begin on the 16th. That's a week later than the team event. Now I know why skaters think they can do both.

The team event ends on the 12th. These are the best athletes in the sport, so I don't question that they can be ready physically in a few days. However, I think mental fatigue and competitive stress could put some athletes at a disadvantage if they compete in both portions of the team competition.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Nothing on twitter or the results page.

Why is there so much secrecy?!

I've been stalking both Jackie's twitter and the ISU page!!

 

[ice coverage]

I share the hope that USFS was/is keeping Vincent in the loop.

FWIW:

AFAIK, Vincent has not attended any official practices yet.

And I do not recall anything on social media that even would indicate that he has gone through USOC team processing in Korea.

So ... I would like to believe that Vincent already had the official word at least that he would not be skating the team SP.

(All other Team USA figure skaters in all disciplines have been seen going through team processing.)​

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Why do we still not know?!

 

[el henry]

Nathan is officially skating the SP, to absolutely no one’s surprise

ETA: on iPad, cannot link, I’m sure someone else can do the trick.

 

[skylark]

It’s the federations who are strategizing, i.e., if US uses Adam rather than Nathan in FS, maybe Japan doesn’t use Shoma. Or whatever. Possibly a moot point by now.

ETA: @Skylark, it may or may not be a no brainer, but that’s kind of beside the point. What if Vincent hadn’t been told yet? And as to whether it was disclosed with USFS blessing, I guess none of us really know, but I tend to think that if USFS wanted it disclosed, they would already have announced it officially. If you recall, Bradie apparently posted on her social media and the post was taken down.

Yes, but the beans had been spilled at that point.

I would assume that Vincent had been part of the conversation earlier. As someone said, these conversations with the athletes are days old. I do understand your hypothetical about Team Japan not choosing to use Shoma, or whatever Team not using another skater. I don't necessarily think USFS would have announced it already. But I'll bow out for now, as I have very little inclination to speculate more. And maybe there will be a big blow-up and we'll all find out eventually!:eeking:

 

[MRani]

I think one reason we got the news from Raf early may be that USFS is no longer so interested in maintaining secrecy because it’s already been revealed that Japan is splitting men and ladies and Sui/Han and Boyang aren’t skating the team event at all. That makes the picture a lot clearer for how the team event will go down and maybe strategizing became a little less crucial. Raf didn’t spill the beans until those beans spilled first. Just speculating though.

 

[concorde]

I just posted this in the Team Event thread and am copying it here.

Look what USFS just posted on their website
http://www.usfsa.org/story?id=91279&type=media

Entries to the team events will be announced at the following times:
Men’s and pairs short program – Feb. 8, 10 a.m.
Ladies short program and short dance – Feb. 10 10 a.m.
Pairs free skate – Feb. 11, 1:15 p.m.
Men’s and ladies free skate, free dance – Feb. 11, 3:30 p.m.

Either they want to create some hype OR they want to see who will give them the best chances of earning a medal. I have heard in the news lots of reports of the norovirus.

 

[skylark]

I think one reason we got the news from Raf early may be that USFS is no longer so interested in maintaining secrecy because it’s already been revealed that Japan is splitting men and ladies and Sui/Han and Boyang aren’t skating the team event at all. That makes the picture a lot clearer for how the team event will go down and maybe strategizing became a little less crucial. Raf didn’t spill the beans until those beans spilled first. Just speculating though.

Yes! Thank you! That's the stuff that was buzzing around at the back of my mind! I don't remember where I read it though.