The way I see it, the probability of her landing a 3A is higher than getting a consistently rotated 3Lz-3T. Her toe jumps as everyone knows are hopeless. But if she sees the axel as one jump that could make her a real gold medal contender, she can go ahead. Time will tell.
Well, she's actually rotated 3Lz-3T at least once that I've seen... that already is far more than I would hope for a potential 3A.
The only competent skater who's of comparable age(aka not some 7yo girl with tiny jumps, obviously) who I've seen with a comparably small 2A is Alisa Fedichkina. Interestingly enough, Fedichkina a few years ago said that she was training 3A and of course, a lot of skepticism was warranted there(and nothing ever came out of it). Satoko can just barely rotate even her 2A, and that's with far more pre-rotation than recommended(really hurts when going for 3A). She also jumps it forward, not up. She to me is just about the least likely skater to add a 3A.
Using Mirai as a comparison, even before 3A she actually had a very good 2A with good height - The situation is not at all comparable. Right, another thing. For many skaters you could assume they have plenty of rotation speed in reserve because they don't need to rotate as fast as possible. But Satoko? She certainly needs to rotate as fast as she can, otherwise she wouldn't be rotating any of her jumps(And even now, she barely can do that). And as we know her rotation speed is nothing special, there's not a whole lot of leeway there either.
She'd require at least as high an axel as Kostornaia on her 3A, which is the highest one I've seen in the recent years and higher than Tuktamysheva's.
When it comes to Wakaba Higuchi, I'm much more hopeful for several reasons(Potential rotation speed reserve, far greater jump power, better technique). I'm not sure if she'll have it next season already but that at least is something reasonable to hope for.
I'm just saying that I don't think it's impossible for Satoko to land one.
Mhm... And I think it's impossible for Satoko to land one. Above's my reasoning.