2018-19 Japanese Ladies' figure skating

[Spirals for Miles]

Ugh, I don't think Rika should do the JGP again this year. She was lucky to qualify to the final this year and performed well there, yes, but this could be her year in seniors and if she waits a year she'll be overshadowed by Trusova/Kostornaya and company...Maybe she'll end up like Sima or Courtney Hicks who were invited to GPs to replace others in addition to her guaranteed assignment, therefore gaining 2.

 

[SamuraiKike]

I cannot see Yamashita not getting 2 events. She's the current Junior Worlds bronze medalist and is in the top 25 for SB, higher than Rika and Yuna. I'm not a fan, but I would be pretty miffed for her if she got 1 while Rika for 2. I think Rika Kihira will get 1 of her own merit and NHK will give her the host spot as she was bronze at nationals.

2 spots: Miyahara, Sakamoto, Mihara, Honda, Higuchi, Yamashita, Kihira.
1 spot: Matsuda, Shiraiwa.

16 spots. I feel like either Matsuda or Hongo will end up with no spots, but Hongo seems more likely as she's lower on the SB list despite Matsuda's SB coming from the
Lombardia Trophy.

Matsuda is in the SB 24 list and Hongo will remain in the top 24 WS so they will both be guaranteed at least 1 event. that's why Im including them both. Same for Yamashita who's #24 on the SB list .

It will come down to Mako and Kihira to who JPN prefers for the 3rd NHK spot and I guess it will be Kihira getting her 2nd event as she's actually the senior medallist. JW medallists used to be guaranteed of spots in the past but not anymore.

If anyone gets dropped from the circuit it will more likely be Shiraiwa who just missed the Season Best list by 2 spots and has no top World standing

 

[lovaticcanada]

I think its more likely that Rika Kihara and Yuna Shiraiwa to both get 1 spot than Rika to get 2 spots by her self.

The problem with Rika is that she missed out on both SB24 or WS24. I think its more likely a second spot goes to a skater on at least one of the two lists.

 

[SamuraiKike]

I think its more likely that Rika Kihara and Yuna Shiraiwa to both get 1 spot than Rika to get 2 spots by her self.

The problem with Rika is that she missed out on both SB24 or WS24. I think its more likely a second spot goes to a skater on at least one of the two lists.

Oops you're right. I misread Rika Hongo for Rika Kihira on the WS list. Then I agree, its going to be hard for Kihira to get 2 with no SB or WS.

Updated Prediction

2 Spots: Miyahara - Higuchi - Sakamoto - Mihara - Honda
1 Spot , Maybe 2 if lucky : Yamashita - Kihira (host spot)
1 Spot : Hongo - Matsuda
0 Spots, Maybe 1 if lucky: Shiraiwa

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I think it would be great if it happpened like this:
2 spots: Miyahara, Higuchi, Sakamoto, Mihara, Honda (I don't think she's done enough to earn 2 but she's got the SB from US classic and the WS so...)
1 spot initially: Kihira --> then given the NHK spot
1 spot: Matsuda, Hongo, Shiraiwa, Yamashita (she's the JWC medallist, yes, but Rika I think will get the host spot because of the senior nationals medal)

so we could have:
GP 1: Miyahara, Honda, Hongo
GP 2: Higuchi, Kihira, Mihara
GP 3: Sakamoto, Honda
GP 4: Miyahara, Kihira, Shiraiwa
GP 5: Sakamoto, Mihara
GP 6: Higuchi, Yamashita

and then if there was an extra spot (I'm pushing it, I know ) then it would go to Yamashita

also I bet Sakamoto and Mihara would love to be at the same event, considering their friendship!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

This isn't about Kaetlyn or others there in the past. It's that Skate Canada is so blindingly obvious in their blatant underscoring of any non-Canadian skaters. Heck, they'd probably give 2016-Gracie 4 URs or something crazy like that. And so it's not good to send anyone there because of this unfair treatment, but there's no other option.

Is that why there have been SO many Canadian ladies medalists in the past Skate Canadas? Let's look at placements of Canadian ladies the past 5 years at Skate Canada:

2017: 1st, 11th, 12
2016: 2nd, 5th
2015: 5th, 10th, 11th
2014: 7th, 10th, 12th
2013: 5th, 8th

If there was such unfair treatment, wouldn't the results be better?

Yes, it happens to some extent (overscoring of Canadians, and underscoring of non-Canadians), but this is in pretty much every GP where a home skater is a podium favourite. There's underscoring of visiting athletes in USA, Japan (though not the worst by any means), and of course Russia (which is the worst when it comes to doling out personal bests for home athletes - even with huge errors, and holding back other athletes).

e.g. Rostelecom: Sakamoto had a clean SP - and one of her worst SP scores of the season - at Rostelecom this year. Meanwhile, Radionova had an obvious error and got a PCS personal best. Kostner went clean and had less PCS than Medvedeva in every category. http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/gprus2017/gprus2017_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf

Look at Kostner's PCS vs. Medvedeva's PCS (gotta love 10's with a fall!!!) in the FS too: http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/gprus2017/gprus2017_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf :sarcasm:

 

[yume]

Note for the future: Do not talk about Canada or Osmond if you want this thread to say in topic.

 

[lovaticcanada]

I may be wrong but I would think Rika K gets 1 (host spot) because she doesn't auto qualify for one at all.

My Predictions: (Satoko/Wakaba will not go to CAN/FRA for obvious reasons). They are also skating the same events as last year, since I don't think they would want back-to-back if possible.

16 spots*
USA: Satoko, Marin, Yuna
CAN: Kaori, Rika H,
CHN: Wakaba, Mai, Mako
JPN: Satoko, Kaori, Rika K
FRA: Mai, Marin, Mako
RUS: Wakaba, Yura

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Note for the future: Do not talk about Canada or Osmond if you want this thread to say in topic.

Goes for pretty much any other topic too, sadly.


Regarding Rika Kihira, most of all I hope she does turn senior, for many of the arguments already made. It's difficult regarding the GP spots, but I'm surprised if people think she doesn't deserve them - she had a stronger season then Marin for example IMO. Marin has a higher SB, but Rika made the JGPF and medaled at senior nationals. It was sad how she struggled at JWC and she needs to get her nerves together, but she had successes too least season. And she *is* attempting among the hardest technical content ever.

 

[Miller]

If Japan has 16 spots (fairly guaranteed, NHK = 3, Rostelecom = 3 (you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours between Russia and Japan, they both want as many entries as possible, and are very close to the limit of 18), CoC and IDF = 3, no axe to grind, they just want as many good skaters as possible, SA + SC = 2 each), then I would expect the following

Satoko Miyahara - 2 spots (guaranteed 2)
Wakaba Higuchi - 2 spots (guaranteed 2)
Kaori Sakamoto - 2 spots (guaranteed 1 + invite based on very high Seasons Best)
Mai Mihara - 2 spots (guaranteed 1 + invite based on very high Seasons Best)
Marin Honda - 2 spots (guaranteed 1 + invite based on high Seasons Best/big name)
Mako Yamashita - 2 spots (guaranteed 1 via Seasons Best + invite based on high Seasons Best/World Junior medal, no need for NHK Host Pick)
Yura Matsuda - 1 spot (so far) - guaranteed 1 via Seasons Best
Rika Hongo - 1 spot (so far) - guaranteed 1 via World Standing

Running total 14

NHK Host Pick - Rika Kihira (most likely)

That leaves 1 invite between the 2 Rika's, Yuna Shiraiwa and Yura Matusda, but I imagine it would most likely be either Rika H based on her big/well known name, or Rika K based on her potential/3As.

If Japan has 17 spots (Russia had 17 last year) then it'll be 2 invites between the 4, and if 18 (it would mean 3 Japanese, and I'm sure 3 Russians, at each GP), then it would be 3. I would imagine the ‘batting order’ would be Rika H/K, then either Yura or Yuna if there happens to be 18 spots.

I also wouldn't rule out 3 at each GP. If you don’t get this it would mean bypassing skaters with Seasons Bests in the high 180s/low 190s in favour of those with SBs of 175 or lower - that's the cut-off point if you take guaranteed spots, Host Picks, and assume all invites are in Seasons Best order.

Hence it'll be interesting to see what happens this year, and in future ones. The Japanese and Russians are getting stronger all the time - there's 18 out of the top 24, and 24 out of the top 32 Seasons Bests this year that are either Russian or Japanese, and it doesn't look as if it's going to change any time soon. Hence it’ll be interesting to see what the ISU’s and other GPs attitude to this will be. Will they accept it, or will they be looking to still get as even a split as possible, with other countries, often little ones, getting representation.

 

[hanyuyuzuru1207]

If Japan has 16 spots (fairly guaranteed, NHK = 3, Rostelecom = 3 (you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours between Russia and Japan, they both want as many entries as possible, and are very close to the limit of 18), CoC and IDF = 3, no axe to grind, they just want as many good skaters as possible, SA + SC = 2 each), then I would expect the following

Satoko Miyahara - 2 spots (guaranteed 2)
Wakaba Higuchi - 2 spots (guaranteed 2)
Kaori Sakamoto - 2 spots (guaranteed 1 + invite based on very high Seasons Best)
Mai Mihara - 2 spots (guaranteed 1 + invite based on very high Seasons Best)
Marin Honda - 2 spots (guaranteed 1 + invite based on high Seasons Best/big name)
Mako Yamashita - 2 spots (guaranteed 1 via Seasons Best + invite based on high Seasons Best/World Junior medal, no need for NHK Host Pick)
Yura Matsuda - 1 spot (so far) - guaranteed 1 via Seasons Best
Rika Hongo - 1 spot (so far) - guaranteed 1 via World Standing

Running total 14

NHK Host Pick - Rika Kihira (most likely)

That leaves 1 invite between the 2 Rika's, Yuna Shiraiwa and Yura Matusda, but I imagine it would most likely be either Rika H based on her big/well known name, or Rika K based on her potential/3As.

If Japan has 17 spots (Russia had 17 last year) then it'll be 2 invites between the 4, and if 18 (it would mean 3 Japanese, and I'm sure 3 Russians, at each GP), then it would be 3. I would imagine the ‘batting order’ would be Rika H/K, then either Yura or Yuna if there happens to be 18 spots.

I also wouldn't rule out 3 at each GP. If you don’t get this it would mean bypassing skaters with Seasons Bests in the high 180s/low 190s in favour of those with SBs of 175 or lower - that's the cut-off point if you take guaranteed spots, Host Picks, and assume all invites are in Seasons Best order.

Hence it'll be interesting to see what happens this year, and in future ones. The Japanese and Russians are getting stronger all the time - there's 18 out of the top 24, and 24 out of the top 32 Seasons Bests this year that are either Russian or Japanese, and it doesn't look as if it's going to change any time soon. Hence it’ll be interesting to see what the ISU’s and other GPs attitude to this will be. Will they accept it, or will they be looking to still get as even a split as possible, with other countries, often little ones, getting representation.

I thght Marin was 7th in nationals and couldn't fo to Worlds and other major events but she still gets 2 spots?

 

[Miller]

I thght Marin was 7th in nationals and couldn't fo to Worlds and other major events but she still gets 2 spots?

It's all based on International scores and standings - Marin is the top 24 of both Seasons Bests and World Standings, and with the number of spots to fill (72) there should be no problem her getting 2 spots, though it will be interesting with Yura Matsuda, she's in the top 24 of Seasons Bests which guarantees her 1 spot, but as above there's no guarantee she'll get a 2nd, it could be the first time AFAIK that a singles skater in the top 24 Seasons Best doesn't get 2 spots.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

It's just a little disappointing, imo, because Marin didn't live up to her potential AT ALL this season and was lucky to get such a high SB at a very overscored comp, and WS is still a mystery to me -- Marin had a pretty awful season and is STILL in the top, ahead of people who are doing a lot better than her overall... :disapp:

 

[yume]

Goes for pretty much any other topic too, sadly.


Regarding Rika Kihira, most of all I hope she does turn senior, for many of the arguments already made. It's difficult regarding the GP spots, but I'm surprised if people think she doesn't deserve them - she had a stronger season then Marin for example IMO. Marin has a higher SB, but Rika made the JGPF and medaled at senior nationals. It was sad how she struggled at JWC and she needs to get her nerves together, but she had successes too least season. And she *is* attempting among the hardest technical content ever.

Personally, i think that she deserve a GP spot but not two GP spot by the sacrifice of another girl. Sure she deserve the NHK host spot by her national comps results. But given her international results, i would find it a bit unfair to give her another spot and not Yamashita for example.
Marin is one of the last who should be sacrified for Rika K. I know that expectations were high and that's surely why her season seems catastrophic to many people. But that still a better season than Yuna Shiraiwa, Yura Matsuda, Rika Hongo.
Sure, we can think that Yuna Shiraiwa or Yura Matsuda don't deserve a spot more than Rika by their seasons but season best and world standings should matter a bit.
The thing is that it seems that Rika K. will get 2 spots mostly on her potential than her achievments (and it's understable).

 

[tinnychan]

It's just a little disappointing, imo, because Marin didn't live up to her potential AT ALL this season and was lucky to get such a high SB at a very overscored comp, and WS is still a mystery to me -- Marin had a pretty awful season and is STILL in the top, ahead of people who are doing a lot better than her overall... :disapp:

It is true that Marin don't have a very good season. Also, I don't think US Int'l Classic was a very overscored event and she did pretty good there. However, she should be the same position (season best) if you take consider with her COC score.

Rika deserve turn senior but I don't think she deserve to earn 2 GP spots if anyone need sacrifice. Is it worth tuning to senior if she only invite to one grand prix(NHK)?

It is fun to think that Honda, Yamashita and Matsuda should only deserve one spot only. :noshake:

 

[yume]

It's just a little disappointing, imo, because Marin didn't live up to her potential AT ALL this season and was lucky to get such a high SB at a very overscored comp

What? Lombardia was hugely overscored. US classic was close to japanese nats scoring in comparison. Look at Marin's scores for a perfect SP and an clean perfect FS. Do you think that Yura Matsuda scores are more close to reality than Marin?

-- Marin had a pretty awful season and is STILL in the top, ahead of people who are doing a lot better than her overall... :disapp:

Who? who did better and is behind her?

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I think Rika had a better overall season than Marin with the exception of JWC, but then again, Marin didn't make worlds or 4CC at all...
her scores would've probably been higher than Marin's if she had the same level of senior PCS level scoring

 

[yume]

Worlds and 4CC don't qualify for GPs and not only who make them deserve to have GP spots. Otherwise, there would be only 3-4 girls each season in GPs. I agree that at some extent Rika K. had a better season, because of nationals. Difficult to compare a junior season to a senior season. And we have to remember that it's the two previous seasons who determine the assignements, not just the current past season.
But seriously, would it be totally fair and justified to give two spots to Rika K. who didn't even prove herself with big medals as junior and give Marin only one spot because she didn't qualify for worlds/4CC?

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I think Rika had a better overall season than Marin with the exception of JWC, but then again, Marin didn't make worlds or 4CC at all...
her scores would've probably been higher than Marin's if she had the same level of senior PCS level scoring

Yes, SB includes a build in disadvantage for the junior girls as they get lower PCS in general. They also lack the ChSq in the LP - an element that got Marin 3.2 points in US classic and makes up a bit more then half the difference between her and Rika Ks SBs already.
Even more pronounced in Yuras case btw. If we take out the ChSq from her LP (it got her 3.12), her SB goes from 195.56 to 192.44. And that's a whopping 0.01 behind Rikas SB, actually.

And sure, Marin still had better seasons then Rika H or Yura, but so had Rika, so

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Worlds and 4CC don't qualify for GPs and not only who make them deserve to have GP spots. Otherwise, there would be only 3-4 girls each season in GPs. I agree that at some extent Rika K. had a better season, because of nationals. Difficult to compare a junior season to a senior season. And we have to remember that it's the two previous seasons who determine the assignements, not just the current past season.
But seriously, would it be totally fair and justified to give two spots to Rika K. who didn't even prove herself with big medals as junior and give Marin only one spot because she didn't qualify for worlds/4CC?

Oh no, I don't think Rika has really earned 2 either. I think both have them have really earned 1, but I guess Marin is guaranteed 2, so...