2018-19 Japanese Ladies' figure skating

[yume]

Wakaba doesn't need 3A. She just need to skate clean in key events, and an accurate judging for Satoko's jumps.

 

[Colonel Green]

Wakaba doesn't need 3A. She just need to skate clean in key events, and an accurate judging for Satoko's jumps.

But there's no reason to think that Satoko's jumps are going to suddenly be judged differently than they have been thus far (i.e., mostly like everybody else's), barring the underrotation change that I already mentioned, and we don't know enough about how her Olympics/Worlds jumps were assessed to know how that would affect her.

 

[chopinskate]

It's true that the 3A will increase Wakaba's "standing" in the JSF's eyes, and have them push her more, I guess.

 

[yume]

But there's no reason to think that Satoko's jumps are going to suddenly be judged differently than they have been thus far.

That's what i said at the start of the page. New rules won't affect her if judging don't change. And i'm 99% sure that judging won't change. The girl will still receive the same GOEs than those who have better jumps than her.

 

[yume]

It's true that the 3A will increase Wakaba's "standing" in the JSF's eyes, and have them push her more, I guess.

Hmmmm possible but i don't think so.

 

[Colonel Green]

Hmmmm possible but i don't think so.

It wouldn’t especially matter what the J-Fed does in that case, I don’t think. Consistent delivery of high-value tech boosts your PCS, as we’ve seen many times. And even if it didn’t, Wakaba’s Worlds score was just a point shy of Satoko’s personal best. Add a 3A in each program and you’re easily over 150 if executed properly.

 

[chopinskate]

Haha, I just wanted to talk about overall "qualities" initially, instead of what they would be scored as in competitions. In that vein, I do think Wakaba has every chance to overtake Satoko, as she is only a little behind overall. She showed herself to be better at Worlds, TBH, so if she can build on that and maintain it until JNats this season, she will have surpassed Satoko. Whether the JSF recognises it or not by then, we'll see.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

But there's no reason to think that Satoko's jumps are going to suddenly be judged differently than they have been thus far (i.e., mostly like everybody else's), barring the underrotation change that I already mentioned, and we don't know enough about how her Olympics/Worlds jumps were assessed to know how that would affect her.

Depends on how clear take off is defined by the judges. Whether that will include her often PR take offs is to be seen. I think what will hurt her the most is that maybe she will see the same GOE scores (0,1,2) she has while the rest of the field gets a boost (3,4,5). I’m not sure how they’ll look at her with words like good air position and clear takeoff. In theory...those are things she doesn’t really excel at.

Not that I support these new guidelines where I think the rich get rich and the poor get poorer.

 

[mikeko666]

But there's no reason to think that Satoko's jumps are going to suddenly be judged differently than they have been thus far (i.e., mostly like everybody else's), barring the underrotation change that I already mentioned, and we don't know enough about how her Olympics/Worlds jumps were assessed to know how that would affect her.

I agree. As long as the tech panels are happy to turn blind eyes to her URs, she will receive generous GOEs, even comparable to Kaori as she has been. What the figure skating judges dislike most is unpredictability. They love to stick to their scenario, and that is what the corridor judging is for.

 

[yume]

Haha, I just wanted to talk about overall "qualities" initially, instead of what they would be scored as in competitions. In that vein, I do think Wakaba has every chance to overtake Satoko, as she is only a little behind overall. She showed herself to be better at Worlds, TBH, so if she can build on that and maintain it until JNats this season, she will have surpassed Satoko. Whether the JSF recognises it or not by then, we'll see.

Yes it's 75 vs 73 in SP, 146 vs 145 in FS.

 

[cohen-esque]

I agree. As long as the tech panels are happy to turn blind eyes to her URs, she will receive generous GOEs, even comparable to Kaori as she has been. What the figure skating judges dislike most is unpredictability. They love to stick to their scenario, and that is what the corridor judging is for.

Satoko got three “<“ at NHK, then none at Skate America, then three more at the GPF, three again at 4CC, none at the Olympics, and two “<“ at Worlds.

It’s just slightly unpredictable, ironically, whether she’ll get URs at all, but when she does there’s a fairly consistently trend of her getting called on her 3Lz (and others jumps in 3Lz combinations) this season.

Wakaba rarely gets serious calls when she skates well, even on borderline jumps, and she’s even getting her flips called clean sometimes. Her PCS was only two points below Satoko’s at Worlds despite skating in an early group. If she skates well next season I wouldn’t be surprised if she overtakes Satoko even without a 3A.

 

[chopinskate]

Wakaba rarely gets serious calls when she skates well, even on borderline jumps, and she’s even getting her flips called clean sometimes. Her PCS was only two points below Satoko’s at Worlds despite skating in an early group. If she skates well next season I wouldn’t be surprised if she overtakes Satoko even without a 3A.

This is what we need to be talking about!

But really, her Flip is fine now. I know the ISU has its own very specific way of defining a Flip, but doesn't she do a flat edge now?

 

[cohen-esque]

This is what we need to be talking about!

But really, her Flip is fine now. I know the ISU has its own very specific way of defining a Flip, but doesn't she do a flat edge now?

It's tricky to tell because of the video quality but I think this flip from Worlds was fine, edge-wise (but borderline UR.) She was definitely on the inside edge when she reached her pick back to tap the ice but right after that it's too blurry for me to tell if maybe she lipped a little bit as she was taking off. She didn't get called on it. And usually she does a pretty flat takeoff, I think. But then there's also this, for instance, which looked like a pretty obvious lip going in to it and she got "! which I thought was generous. (But she did flatten the edge at takeoff considerably on rewatch, actually, so it's better.) So it's improving but it's not totally there yet.

My worry with Wakaba is that, in the process of trying to fix her lip, she could end up with unclear edges on both jumps like Lipnitskaia did for a while when she worked on her flutz. I mention it because Wakaba's actually done a few lutzes this season that I might possibly on a bad day have called "!"

Interestingly, Satoko used to lip, as well, but either it's gone or she never gets called for it anymore. I don't think it was ever as bad as Wakaba's was, though.

 

[chopinskate]

Oh, yes, I've noticed her sometimes (!) lutz. It's the same with Daleman when she's working on her lip, though it's annoying when people keep saying they're flutzers. That's... not what a flutz is.

But the way ISU calls the flips (e) or (!) is dumb. Like that Yuna Kim 13W SP, or that one random time Boyang Jin got called (!), because... why not.

 

[Ares]

Oh, yes, I've noticed her sometimes (!) lutz. It's the same with Daleman when she's working on her lip, though it's annoying when people keep saying they're flutzers. That's... not what a flutz is.

But the way ISU calls the flips (e) or (!) is dumb. Like that Yuna Kim 13W SP, or that one random time Boyang Jin got called (!), because... why not.

Yes it's annoying, they're inconsequential and often oblivious to what flip really is like (or should be like). They should probably do away with that ! designation for flips, often textbook jumps are punished with that. That inside edge is actually supposed to shallow and I don't trust their eyes to tell apart that from whatever is flat edge so they should ignore this issue unless they find out blatant violaton. Obviously most Yuna Kim flips were fine (even more than fine, more like wonderful!), I always found it ludicrous when some people labelled her as a ''lipper'', as for real lip ... the first name that springs to my mind is Shizuka Arakawa.

 

[skatenewbie]

Yeah flip is iffy jump because even in ISU video its slight inside edge not obvious one like Osmond/Medvedeva/Mao. Also lippers often have inside edge/flat edge going into take off but right before take off it change into outside and not as noticeable as flutz. One of lippers that quite obvious are Karen Chen, Anna P. Sometimes Yuna does get a bit on outside though later in her career, even though not as bad as her haters claim it to be. For Wakaba she have iffy edge on both lutz and flip, she does have nice outside edge going on to lutz take off but she change edge to shallow outside/flat edge right before going into the air. But most people only see that she was in outside edge going into the jump. Alina also have that as well in her lutz, slightly change into flat/shallow edge. Its not e but !

 

[yume]

Satoko got three “<“ at NHK, then none at Skate America, then three more at the GPF, three again at 4CC, none at the Olympics, and two “<“ at Worlds.

And we see that when she's called she's vulnerable, as she lost to Wakaba, Kaori and Mai.

 

[lanceupper1114]

And we see that when she's called she's vulnerable, as she lost to Wakaba, Kaori and Mai.

I think she only lost to those three when she's had a fall. She probably would have still beat them if it was just the under-rotations

 

[yume]

I think she only lost to those three when she's had a fall. She probably would have still beat them if it was just the under-rotations

Without the fall she still would have lost to Kaori at 4CC. Without the fall she would have beat Wakaba at Worlds, but without her fall in SP Wakaba would have beat her too

 

[lanceupper1114]

Without the fall she still would have lost to Kaori at 4CC. Without the fall she would have beat Wakaba at Worlds, but without her fall in SP Wakaba would have beat her too

True with Kaori

At worlds, Satoko doubled a triple as well, so she would have beat Wakaba if we're just talking about unders.