2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[chopinskate]

Consistency? Yes.
But look at this swing-y technique: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UfI--hJ0_Q especially at 1:43 going into the 3F-3T. Just... the way she has to swing her arms so much just to be able to do the jump would seem like she doesn't have either rotation speed or height alone. And that is definitely not a good thing.

She has a terrible habit of not opening her arms widely enough or even at all before the jumps, which would help her conserve angular momentum. Instead she closes her upper body up, and then muscles into rotation. I think this is the reason she swings so much.

When did it get wonkier exactly? She had her best season in terms of jump consistency last year and I haven’t seen any footage from this season. Plus she has Tat and all that CSKA backing now. You’re painting a picture like she is constantly getting worse with every day. It doesn’t add up really.

I'd assume as she grew.

 

[russianfan]

At this point I am wondering whether Gubanova would be better off competing in the JGP and getting two assignments, possibly winning one or both, then making the JGPF and contending for bronze rather than competing as a senior and only getting the host spot with a long shot at the podium.

Do you really think that this year's JGP will be less competitive than previous one? I doubt. Also in order to get two assignments she should've progressed under Buyanova, which is usually not the case with her skaters.. And TAT's influence doesn't apply to international judges as we've seen with Konstantinova already.

Jumping in a program is very different from jumping a solo jump pass in practice. She would need a lot of conditioning in order to put a quad into her programme without compromising the quality of other elements. Look at Trusova's FS in Jr Worlds. The two quads there were undoubtedly amazing, but the rest of the programme were less impressive than what she demonstrated earlier in the season.

What are you talking about? She performed everything nice, every jump was spot on, only last spins were noticeably bad.

Overall, I still think it's easier to compete among russian senior ladies now than among junior ones.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

And TAT's influence doesn't apply to international judges as we've seen with Konstantinova

Yes these things are always uncertain but I will note Anastasiia’s had a harder time at home than with international judges. She has a tough path in front of her. If I got to chose her path it would be for her to get the host pick and make a point there. A big enough score there would probably be the most beneficial regardless of the final standings. This girl has had a bit of misfortune that people focus on but also a lot of really quality efforts. I’m keeping the faith for now

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Yes, I definitely think getting the host spot would be better for her. And I think she's likely to get it.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Yes, I definitely think getting the host spot would be better for her. And I think she's likely to get it.

They can force her to do JGP and then take the host pick though...right?

 

[Tulipstar]

Yes, I definitely think getting the host spot would be better for her. And I think she's likely to get it.

I'm not sure. It could go to Sofia Samodurova if she does well in her first assignment and has a chance of making GPF.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I'm not sure. It could go to Sofia Samodurova if she does well in her first assignment and has a chance of making GPF.

I expect that test skates will have an added impact on how things will play out. Guess we’ll just have to wait and rely on the RusFed to make the best decisions.

 

[moriel]

Overall, i wouldnt put much trust on TAT and Buianova here.
I am pretty sure that, with everything else on same level, Buianova will chose to support Sotskova, as we have seen her totally ignoring Radionova last year. I see her propping any other of her skaters only if they are MUCH better than Sotskova, which is not the case with Gubanova so far.

 

[Lightstar]

They can force her to do JGP and then take the host pick though...right?

I think it‘s not possible because there is a rule that you can‘t take part in the jgp and gp series in the same season!

 

[Spirals for Miles]

They can force her to do JGP and then take the host pick though...right?

Well, they could, but I doubt they would. Because Buyanova's so influential, if she chooses to, she can fight for Gubanova to have the host spot because she's going to have a much better chance of success there than on the JGP where she will probably face Eteri-stan at least once, if not twice. This would also mean that Buyanova has one less competition to travel to, since Tsurskaya will already be there. Gubanova would probably also place no worse than fifth, or fourth depending on if Gracie's in good form. She could reasonably expect to be behind a clean Alina or clean Wakaba, but could beat a Wakaba with mistakes, and could conceivably beat Tsurskaya because they are currently around the same level. I don't think Eunsoo is a huge threat to Gubanova, nor is Mako Yamashita or Yura Matsuda. On the GP, she can afford to place 4th/5th with a good score, but on the JGP, she cannot. Plus doing Rostelecom this year gives her senior PCS, which increases her chances of making the SB list, and establishes her as a senior skater before Trusova, Kostornaya, Tarakanova, and Shcherbakova become eligible to move up and conceivably push her out of contention for world slots. And the Russian Fed would probably be more likely to give her a Worlds / Europeans slot or spot at WTT if she had competed at least once on the GP this season.

 

[cohen-esque]

@Spirals Where do you foresee Gubanova placing 5th on the JGP? The lowest I can see is 3rd, and honestly, the lowest I would expect is second. (Russia had two girls per event, right?) She could make the final if she gets two events, but there I don’t think she would be likely to medal.

I don’t really agree that Mako Yamashita wouldn’t be a threat to her in seniors; Eunsoo I do agree. Gracie is a wild card, but I wouldn’t expect Gubanova to podium anyway and she couldn’t make the final, regardless, in seniors.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I don't see her placing 5th at all, but she did place 4th last year (to be fair, it was her worst event of the season). But she has to win her first event in order to get a second one, as we've seen this season, and I just don't think she's likely to do that unless they place her with someone like Kanysheva rather than Tarakanova, Shcherbakova, Kostornaya, or Trusova.

 

[Dmitryfromsiberia]

I think in the new season, the Russian Junior women will compete only among themselves. All the strongest juniors of the Japanese and Korean passed to seniors.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

Do you really think that this year's JGP will be less competitive than previous one? I doubt. Also in order to get two assignments she should've progressed under Buyanova, which is usually not the case with her skaters.. And TAT's influence doesn't apply to international judges as we've seen with Konstantinova already.

Actually it will only be more competitive in terms of the Russian girls. The rest of the field may even be less competitive, and there are only 2 spots for Russia per event.

I haven't see Gubanova since junior nationals so I cannot predict based on how she may or may not be progressing. What I do know is she finished 4th at junior nationals and 6th at seniors. She has consistently beaten Trusina, Sinitsyna, Kanysheva, and beat Shcherbakova by more than a few places at nationals. You can note my full predictions on page 256 of this thread. I believe she will get one spot if she wants it(and a chance at a second) as long as she doesn't bomb test skates. IF she skates well she has a great chance to go 1-2 with the other Russian girl, may even win against Trusina, Sinitsyna, Kanysheva or a flawed Tarakanova and Shcherbakova. This is this basis for my prediction.

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

Really? Her jump technique has gotten wonkier so we don't know what will happen with them this year. I think Tarusina should have the upper hand due to her better, more consistent jumps, and faster skating (she also has good skating skills). If clean, I would think that Tarakanova would come out on top as well, plus Shcherbakova if she's clean.

I agree clean Shcherbakova and Tarakanova both come out on top. But they may not be clean. Tarakanova is a huge wild card right now and who knows if Shcherbakova's issues at Nationals or Elders were from her injury or what.

Tarusina was 12th at nationals to Gubanova's 6th, and I believe she skated both segments clean. She was definitely underscored and now that she won Elders they'll hopefully give her a little love. I agree it will be close between the two of them if both are clean but I'd give Gubanova the edge....for now. She may have some problems with her technique that I am overlooking but I prefer her PCS to Tarusina from what I've seen. Of course this could all change this year.

I am not saying Gubanova "will" win. What I'm saying is I see a chance.

 

[Mawwerg]

I believe Tarusina will have some advantage here because she had already earned JGP spot once but was not able to compete due to misfortune.

 

[Shayuki]

Overall, i wouldnt put much trust on TAT and Buianova here.
I am pretty sure that, with everything else on same level, Buianova will chose to support Sotskova, as we have seen her totally ignoring Radionova last year. I see her propping any other of her skaters only if they are MUCH better than Sotskova, which is not the case with Gubanova so far.

Would she still continue to do so after worlds? Sotskova was a total train wreck and had significant UR issues last season. My read was that one of the reasons she brought so many new skaters in is because she was losing faith in Sotskova. And really, if she continues URing half her jumps, the amount she's pushed doesn't really matter all that much.

The reason some of us think Gubanova should be in seniors is because Russia's #3 spot is wide open right now and there are serious worlds participation possibilities. On the other hand, the road at juniors is almost certainly blocked.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Would she still continue to do so after worlds? Sotskova was a total train wreck and had significant UR issues last season. My read was that one of the reasons she brought so many new skaters in is because she was losing faith in Sotskova. And really, if she continues URing half her jumps, the amount she's pushed doesn't really matter all that much.

The reason some of us think Gubanova should be in seniors is because Russia's #3 spot is wide open right now and there are serious worlds participation possibilities. On the other hand, the road at juniors is almost certainly blocked.

Uh, she earned two GP silvers, and came 2nd at the 2018 Grand Prix Final, where she got personal bests in the SP and FS, and beat Osmond/Higuchi/Miyahara/Kostner - who ended up being the top 4 skaters at 2018 Worlds. Not bad for a 'total train wreck'! :sarcasm:

 

[Shayuki]

Uh, she earned two GP silvers, and came 2nd at the 2018 Grand Prix Final, where she got personal bests in the SP and FS, and beat Osmond/Higuchi/Miyahara/Kostner - who ended up being the top 4 skaters at 2018 Worlds. Not bad for a 'total train wreck'! :sarcasm:

Well, for some reason she got no UR calls there. In any case, she just beat non-Russian skaters there and would have been third if Medvedeva had been healthy. We're considering the #3 Russian spot in any case.

 

[russianfan]

So, who are the strongest non-russian competitors in the upcoming JGP? From what i read Eunsoo Lim, Rika Kihira, Mako Yamashita all moving to seniors? What's the point of this year's JGP then? Russians will 1-2 every single event then? Or there are some other decent non-russians in contention?