The problem with any very talented young skater in this era is the age limits. If Lipinski would have been subject to these current rules she would have been age ineligibile for Nagano
Actually, Lipinski's birthday is in June, so she would have been 15 in time to be eligible for the 1998 Olympics (and Worlds; 4 Continents didn't exist yet).
If the current rules had been in effect with no exceptions, she would have been eligible for the Grand Prix (Chamions Series) in 1996-97, so she could still have had the same results that year and been in the same position Mao Asada was last year, having beaten most of the top skaters at the series final but too young to go to the big event.
Since she wouldn't have been eligible for 1996 or 1997 Worlds, we can imagine that if she had taken bronze at 96 Nationals that she would have gone back to Junior Worlds in the 97 season (it was still held in December at that time) and maybe finally won a medal there. And then maybe still won 97 Nationals. (Or not, if she hadn't pushed the 3loop-3loop into her repertoire, and/or if she made mistakes. In which case Bobek might have won the freeskate in Nashville and Kwan might have held onto the title despite a bad freeskate.)
But with no Jr. World medal exception, Lipinski's season would have ended with the series final, assuming she had qualified.
Would her 1998 season have been more or less successful without two Worlds appearances, including a win, behind her?
and had nothing about her training changed her hip would have gone and she would not have that OGM, questionable whether she would have made any effect in the senior ranks because her injury could have left her out of inetnational championships before she was age eligible.
As I say, she would have been eligible for everything in the 98 season, so if nothing had changed in her training she could still have been doing everything in 98 that she actually did, and at the same competitions. Whether she *would* have skated that well, and whether the judges would have scored her better or worse if she were as new a face on the senior scene as Asada and Kim this year instead of the reigning world champion, we can only speculate.
I haven't seen much of Flatt except for the youtube clips and by all accounts they do not do her justice so i will wait and see. Zhang is another who i would probably compare to Tara. If zhang were able to skate at senior worlds i have no doubt she could equal or do better than Tara's 15th (was it 15) in her debut.
Yes, it was 15th. Part of that was because she fell on two jumps in her SP, placing 23rd in that phase but skated a strong LP to pull up to 13th (I think) in that phase and 15th overall. (For the record, Kwan also made her Worlds debut at 13 and fell on one jump in the short, placing 11th, and skated well in the LP to pull up to 8th. S. Hughes was 7th in her first Worlds at 13; I don't remember any major mistakes but she did have some technique and presentation issues that improved but weren't fully solved by the time of her big win.)
We're not going to be sending any more 13- or 14-year-olds to Worlds, or younger 15-year-olds (e.g., Cohen in 2000 or Meissner in 2005). If any of the new young skaters medal at Nationals before they're old enough, we'll probably see them at Junior Worlds that year and on the Grand Prix the following season(s), so if they qualify to debut at Worlds at 15 3/4 or 16, they'll have that experience but will still be facing the biggest event of their careers so far. Is it easier to handle pressure at 13 or at 16? Are the expectations higher for the 16-year-old who has already made a name for herself?
Did Meissner benefit from having already competed at the Olympics, where most of the expectations were on Cohen, before debuting at Worlds and skating better there?
Anyway, "we" as fans can't rush any of these skaters to the (US) podium. If they get there before they're eligible for Worlds, it'll be because they skate better than older skaters at Nationals. If they don't, it will be because they don't skate their best, or older skaters do, or older skaters' power and/or presentation prevails in the judges' minds over number of jumps landed. And what they do with the achievement will not be up to us either. Let's just not jump from acknowledging that a young skater could (or did, after the fact) medal at Nationals or achieve good international results to being disappointed and blaming them if they don't go on to shoot directly to the top immediately afterward.
Thanks for putting it into good/rational perspective.
but then again I wasn't following olympic elligble skating at the time.
