2018-19 Ladies' power ranking

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Satoko's main issue are her jumps currently. Yep, they may not call them UR
but the GOE cap is obvious - there is no way she should get +4 or +5 on any of her jumps under the current system.
Meanwhile, skaters like Alina or Kaori can get +4/+5.

While bullet 1) is usually missing from her jumps (height, namely), preventing Satoko from deserving a +4 or +5, in some cases, I think she does have good distance/height - for her size.

For example her 2A+3T and 3L were high quality elements that deserve a +3. But a +4 wouldn't be outrageous (IMO) either:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q0crzu0lfk#t=3m25s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q0crzu0lfk#t=2m

At any rate, it does look like her jumps have improved - especially her 3T in combo.

 

[Elucidus]

Yeah, even NBC commentators saw writing on the wall already - introducing Trusova's advertisement during seniors GP event broadcasting. And at Skate America, no less! Where presumably they should advertised Tennel as the next american star or something - considering the event would be seen by large amount of american audience - not praising russian junior from "empire of evil". It was something.. unusual and unexpected, tbh 0_0 But I like it ))

 

[VenusHalley]

Yeah, even NBC commentators saw writing on the wall already - introducing Trusova's advertisement during seniors GP event broadcasting. And at Skate America, no less! Where presumably they should advertised Tennel as the next american star or something - considering the event would be seen by large amount of american audience - not praising russian junior from "empire of evil". It was something.. unusual and unexpected, tbh 0_0 But I like it ))

to be honest, I was not impressed about such a big deal made about skater who was not skating at the competition. Each of the ladies deserved to be there and had their achievements. Trusova had her moment at JGP and will probably have her moment next year... would you want that at first grand prix there is yak yak about some other skater?

(yak yak about OTHER SKATERS during somebody else's performance and KC is my pet peeve. Just show some respect and be in the moment).

 

[moriel]

While bullet 1) is usually missing from her jumps (height, namely), preventing Satoko from deserving a +4 or +5, in some cases, I think she does have good distance/height - for her size.

For example her 2A+3T and 3L were high quality elements that deserve a +3. But a +4 wouldn't be outrageous (IMO) either:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q0crzu0lfk#t=3m25s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q0crzu0lfk#t=2m

At any rate, it does look like her jumps have improved - especially her 3T in combo.

I kind of disagree her jumps should be anything above +3, and overall find it weird the way she is scored.
Imho, she deserves higher PCs, at least 2 points more in SP, and 5 points more in FS, but max +3 GOE on jumps and possibly UR calls.

 

[BillNeal]

to be honest, I was not impressed about such a big deal made about skater who was not skating at the competition. Each of the ladies deserved to be there and had their achievements. Trusova had her moment at JGP and will probably have her moment next year... would you want that at first grand prix there is yak yak about some other skater?

(yak yak about OTHER SKATERS during somebody else's performance and KC is my pet peeve. Just show some respect and be in the moment).

Ya, I think talking during a skater's performance should be kept to a minimum period whether it'd be about the skater skating, other skaters not skating, or the commentators' life stories. A few quick notable comments about what is happening during the performance is fine but leave the backstories, verbal essays, fluff for before/after the performance.

With that said, their habit of overhyping skaters is annoying as well (eg. Nathan Chen at the Olympics) and sometimes backfires. Now they are advanced hyping a skater that is currently skating in another division altogether :disapp:. Just like for this thread, there were so many quality senior ladies to talk about.

 

[IndiaP12]

Yes, it really irritated me how in the middle of Sofia’s SP, Tara and Johnny yakked on about how she might as well make her mark this season before the wave of quads come next year, or something. Totally disrespectful. It’s too early to make such assumptions. The season only just started, who’s thinking about next season? Them, of course * Johnny wasn’t too bad but Tara and the other guy really got on my nerves. And tbh is much rather watch Sofia’s skating over Trusova’s quads any day.

 

[Roast Toast]

Johnny was just as bad. He talked about Nathan throughout Laurine's program.

 

[BillNeal]

Yes, it really irritated me how in the middle of Sofia’s SP, Tara and Johnny yakked on about how she might as well make her mark this season before the wave of quads come next year, or something. Totally disrespectful. It’s too early to make such assumptions. The season only just started, who’s thinking about next season? Them, of course * Johnny wasn’t too bad but Tara and the other guy really got on my nerves. And tbh is much rather watch Sofia’s skating over Trusova’s quads any day.

Sofia was a pleasant surprise for me. She's a real performer. Music from Burlesque is kinda meh but she was so committed and enjoyed skating to it so much that I couldn't help but smile during her performance. Similar with her gala. From Liza T's twitter, good to see Sofia have a supportive training mate who, imo, is like a big sister to her.

 

[Miller]

I kind of disagree her jumps should be anything above +3, and overall find it weird the way she is scored.
Imho, she deserves higher PCs, at least 2 points more in SP, and 5 points more in FS, but max +3 GOE on jumps and possibly UR calls.

She had 4 +4 GOE element scores out of 90 total (3 jump passes in SP + 7 in long, times 9 judges), 3 from the French judge. If you look at her old protocols from +3/-3 you'll find she never used to get +3 on jumps, so her TES should still be the same if she's not getting +4/+5 under +/-5.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

Satoko's main issue are her jumps currently. Yep, they may not call them UR
but the GOE cap is obvious - there is no way she should get +4 or +5 on any of her jumps under the current system.
Meanwhile, skaters like Alina or Kaori can get +4/+5.

For her jumps at SA i would give her mostly +3 cause i think she fulfilled with them all the GOE features except bullet 1)very good height/lenght and sometimes bullet 2)good take off (when they 'looked' prerotated). For some +2 when it looked there is no some entry into the jump. If some of prerotations are distracting in real time i will deduct for poor take off and give her +1, if some jumps have fair height and leight and good take off +4 is possible. But in SA i would give her +2 and +3 for jumps... I would give Kaori at SA mostly +3 too. What she was lacking (sometimes) at SA are bullets 4)entry and especially 5)good body position - for some of the jump she visibly didn't keep the good axis in the air, which also can make her jumps not looking so 3)efforthless as Satoko's. So even Kaori better fulfilled core bullets than Satoko their jumps are judged almost equally there (according to the recommendations it can be the same score when you have all the core bullets and none of them!).

 

[Ice Dance]

We are just saying all those power rankings will be useless in less than a year.
Doom doom doom

They are useless now. We all know that. We just like re-evaluating the landscape after every competition weekend. Trusova could move up and slay next season, or she could grow and get hammered for URs just like Vincent did at this competition. Thrive like Sakamoto or struggle like Marin. We have no way of knowing.

Just as we had no idea that Bradie would pop her lutz here after slaying at Autumn Classic. Or that Kaori would become so solid only a few weeks after bombing at her opening Challenger.

So we head into Skate Canada with some expectations based on what we have seen long-term and some expectations based on what we have seen recently. Then we wait & see how the athletes perform in the competition. We predict. Our predictions are either confirmed or blown apart at the next competition. And then we predict again. All season long.

 

[moriel]

For her jumps at SA i would give her mostly +3 cause i think she fulfilled with them all the GOE features except bullet 1)very good height/lenght and sometimes bullet 2)good take off (when they 'looked' prerotated). For some +2 when it looked there is no some entry into the jump. If some of prerotations are distracting in real time i will deduct for poor take off and give her +1, if some jumps have fair height and leight and good take off +4 is possible. But in SA i would give her +2 and +3 for jumps... I would give Kaori at SA mostly +3 too. What she was lacking (sometimes) at SA are bullets 4)entry and especially 5)good body position - for some of the jump she visibly didn't keep the good axis in the air, which also can make her jumps not looking so 3)efforthless as Satoko's. So even Kaori better fulfilled core bullets than Satoko their jumps are judged almost equally there (according to the recommendations it can be the same score when you have all the core bullets and none of them!).

Oh, my point here that most Satoko's jumps deserve +3, but then they cannot hit the bullet points enough for a +4/+5. There is nothing to be done about that.
Meanwhile someone like Kaori, potentially, could get +4/+5 at some point of her career.

 

[Globetrotter]

While bullet 1) is usually missing from her jumps (height, namely), preventing Satoko from deserving a +4 or +5, in some cases, I think she does have good distance/height - for her size.

For example her 2A+3T and 3L were high quality elements that deserve a +3. But a +4 wouldn't be outrageous (IMO) either:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q0crzu0lfk#t=3m25s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q0crzu0lfk#t=2m

At any rate, it does look like her jumps have improved - especially her 3T in combo.

Hmm, I have to politely disagree to certain extent. I do agree that in the off season, she has done lots of work and her jumps have visibly improved to have more lift, less prerotation, better flow. I don't think they will ever become the explosive type or will not IMO hit the great height/distance and good take off bullets. In the past, I would say they are at most +1 but in the new GOE scoring, I can find some justifications to give +2 or even +3. But I am still struggling mentally to see how they can be +4 or more. Where Satoko is being lowballed though is in PCS. I think she deserves higher IN and SS components - and yes, I do think she is even stronger and deserves higher scores than either Zhenya or Alina in these two components. It will be more acceptable for me to see lss jump GOEs and higher PCS to reflect what she really put on the ice.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

After Skate Canada:

1. Zagitova (no change)
2. Kihira (no news)
3. Tuktamysheva
4. Medvedeva
5. Miyahara
6. Sakamoto
7. Yamashita
8. Samodurova
9. Tennell
10. Tursynbaeva

 

[Elucidus]

After Skate Canada:

1. Zagitova (no change)
2. Kihira (no news)
3. Tuktamysheva
4. Medvedeva
5. Miyahara
6. Sakamoto
7. Yamashita
8. Samodurova
9. Tennell
10. Tursynbaeva

You underestimate Sakomoto and Miyahara too much - while overestimating Tuktamysheva. Liza has too weak tech content (she lost in TES even to Panenkova!) and poor PCS while her 3A is unstable. Japanese girls are strong and stable with good PCS rising potential while Medvedeva began to get wrong edge for her flutz at last - which is a sign that judges will not be inclined to forgive her for it from now on. I would exchange those two japanese girls places with Med and Tukt in your list - all others there are more or less accurate :thumbsup:
Also, I think we already can make pretty much close predictions about possible GPF participants. IMO they will be:
Zagitova
Kihira
Miyahara
Sakomoto
Medvedeva
Mihara or Yamashita

At NHK there will be full japanese podium sweep - so Tuktamysheva won't make it (and Sotskova in bad form right now and too prone to UR her jumps which isn't good for modern judging as we can see). So two russians and 4 japanese (or 1 and 5 - if Medvedeva would bomb in France) in GPF and 5 russians and one korean in JGPF So only two countries in each ladies event - which will be pretty much symptomatic for horrible state of ladies skating in other countries except these three

 

[Joekaz]

You underestimate Sakomoto and Miyahara too much - while overestimating Tuktamysheva. Liza has too weak tech content (she lost in TES even to Panenkova!) and poor PCS while her 3A is unstable. Japanese girls are strong and stable with good PCS rising potential while Medvedeva began to get wrong edge for her flutz at last - which is a sign that judges will not be inclined to forgive her for it from now on. I would exchange those two japanese girls places with Med and Tukt in your list - all others there are more or less accurate [emoji106]
Also, I think we already can make pretty much close predictions about possible GPF participants. IMO they will be:
Zagitova
Kihira
Miyahara
Sakomoto
Medvedeva
Mihara or Yamashita

At NHK there will be full japanese podium sweep - so Tuktamysheva won't make it (and Sotskova in bad form right now and too prone to UR her jumps which isn't good for modern judging as we can see). So two russians and 4 japanese (or 1 and 5 - if Medvedeva would bomb in France) in GPF and 5 russians and one korean in JGPF [emoji3] So only two countries in each ladies event - which will be pretty much symptomatic for horrible state of ladies skating in other countries except these three

And none of those can touch Zagitova off the scoring so far.

 

[[email protected]]

My update:

#1 Alina Zagitova No news Big lead over everyone else

#2 Satoko Miyahara +2 No news

#3 Rika Kihira No news. I am waiting for her first GP event.

#4 Evgenija Medvedeva -2 She would have won SC if she had not messed her SP combo but her scores are way down.

#5 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva Liza keeps winning everything but she depends heavily on her 3A which is hit and miss so far.

#6 Kaori Sakamoto No news

#7 Bradie Tennell Two shaky performances in Japan and USA. Bradie has to return her consistency that was with her during most of the last season. She has good programs - just need to deliver on potential.

#8 Mai Mihara No news

#9 Mako Yamashita New Not the most exciting skater but very consistent to be a contender for the Japanese team.

#10 Elizabet Tursynbaeva -1 She could not build the momentum on her "home" Canadian ice butthe potential is there.


Sofia left Top-10 but she is near. Bell is also not very far. Wakaba did not convince at all. The wild card is Gulyakova without international exposure so far.

 

[yume]

The only thing that is clear so far is that none can touch Zagitova's scores.

 

[FS101]

1. Alina Zagitova (obvious, and has very good jumps and a huge scoring capacity)
2. Rika Kihira (if she goes cleans, she has a good chance of beating Zagitova)
3 Satoko Miyahara, beautifully skates and gets a bit underscored on the PCs. But her technical difficulty in her jumps isn’t enough to beat Kihira or Zagitiva if they goes clean.
4. Evgenia Medvedeva (will struggle a bit this season, but it in long run she’ll improve)
5. Kaori Sakamoto (has good jumps, but her best when clean is only around 210-220 range
6. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva lacks consistency generally (well SP, bad FS and opposite) and also with the triple axel, but when she lands it she’ll score high, and she needs higher technical difficulty on the rest of her jumps.
7. Sofia Samodurova (good consistency, but has low PCs because it’s her 1st Senior Year. But if she continues to be cleanish, then her PCs will rise.
8. Mai Mihara, Ok jumps, gives a decent performers, ok scoring capacity in 205-220 range. But doesn’t have anything big that will her ahead of other skaters.
9. Bradie Tennel, Has a Lutz-Loop combo that isn’t consistent like the rest of her jumps. Also she does have good jumps and good scoring capacity but not enough to be at the top.
10. Carolina Kostner, She hasn’t competed yet but she always gives an amazing performance and gets fairly high PCs always. Also last season she scored in the 205-215 range often. The only thing is that she doesn’t have the technical difficulty which put her behind.
(11th, 12th, 13th, and 14th would be Loena Hendriccx, Mariah Bell, Mako Yamshita and Wakaba Higuichi)

 

[Alex65]

You should definitely not underestimate the stability and quality of Mako Yamashita's jumps, as well as her stability in competition ( JWC18 and SC18 is very impressive). Yes, it is the former junior, but it can grow quickly, especially since there is a good start to the senior career.