It is highely likely happen this year though,that 24 with 1+4 might still be enough for GPF,but 2+3 might be not. I'm pretty sure Alina,Satoko and Kaori are already in the GPF with 26-30 points. Which leaves us with 3 spots left and 6 ladies contenders: Medvedeva,Tuktamysheva,Yamashita,Kihira,Mihara,Samodurova.Well, Zhenya does not *need* a gold.
Historically, 24 points is the cut for the ladies - in the last years, all ladies with 24 points or more made the GPF. Which means that bronze + silver = GPF.
I mean yeah there are sceneries where this not happens, but it seems very unlikely not to happen.
UPD: Last time a lady with 24 points was out of GPF was in 2013
If Medvedeva ends up with silver making it 24 points with 2+3, and any 2 ladies out of these 6 make it to 26 points (say with 2 silvers) along with Tuktamysheva's at least 1+4, which beats 2+3, then she's easily out of GPF. That's why she does need to win.
2+3 in her case would be enough only if Tuktamysheva bombs lower than 4th and the rest of contenders have also 2+3 but with lower overall scores on second tiebreak.
I don't have high hopes for Bradie,but even she has a slight chance if she manages to win in France and get herself to GPF with 1+4.
I remember videos of Rika's practice with 3lz3lo,what if she might want to boost her TES even more putting those into programs,the scores would be high sky then,and no PCS would save nobody.

