Will Carolina Kostner grab the gold medal at Euros?

[iloveaxel]

What are you basing that on? I mean, I read what you said about tiny compact body type, but she looked gorgeous in 2006. Have you seen her more recently? And isn't Irina another tiny compact type? I think she did okay after puberty.

I remember somebody mentioned she has changed quite a bit. Anyway, it's not substantiated yet, so take a grain of salt. But her body built is vastly different from Irina. I don't believe Irina is 'tiny compact type', she's more on the powerful side, puberty would only make her jumps and overall skating stronger.

I would put Elena, Katy Talor into the same category. They are very small but compact. Puberty is going to impact this type of skaters harder in my opinion.

 

[iloveaxel]

Carolina Kostner

Another recent video of Carolina Kostner:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBO2Nboltpc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kxIXSGFzqU&mode=related&search=

I never paid much attention to her since her speed was so wild in the past. But this season, she's really growing on me. She is so musical and her jumps look really strong although still not quite consistent.

I will put my money on her for Euro title. She may be the only 'old' lady who can play spoiler at 2010 Olys just as Arakawa did. Technically, she's capable of doing difficult 3-3, artistically she's also strong.

 

[Spun Silver]

Maybe I get it, maybe not. It's hard for me to judge from photos and TV alone and I haven't seen these athletes live or side by side.

But here are excerpts from the recent interview with Elene's coach until recently (Elena Vodorezova in Russia) posted here in November:

"When I came to European or World championships with, say, Gedevanishvili, it wasn't to make it into the final and rest. Though Georgian figure skating association didn't hide that it would have been happy just to have Lena in the top 24 at those competitions.

"We didn't expect to come first, but I prepared Gedevanishvili for the best result she was capable of. I well understood that if a Georgian girl comes to European championships, and skates like everyone else, she can't hope to rise beyond 15 - 20 places. In order to surpass others and attract attention, one needs something more than knowing how to perform required elements....

"Zhuk always taught us that you have to be head and shoulders above competition. How else can you do it? Average is just that - mediocrity. In Moscow alone, junior competitions have 25 competitors. It's not easy to distinguish yourself from this mass. If you're like everyone else, nobody will notice you. There has to be brightness, an explosion.... [Presumably Elene made such an "explosion."]

"Lena skated with me from the age of six or seven. Getting a Georgian skater to this level is quite different from getting a Russian one there. This year we made very beautiful programs, the process was going very well - at the end, Lena looked great. We planned to compete at two "Grand Prix" events, but we had to decline after everything. [Elene and her mom getting deported]

"Up until the end of last season, nobody paid me for my work with Gedevanishvili. So it's ridiculous to talk about my supposed financial gains....

"Of course, no coach will deny themselves the joy of working with such a talented child. It's so rare to encounter a talent of this magnitude."

It was an impressive interview and Vodorezova doesn't sound like someone who would waste 10 years of her life working with a foreign skater for free if she did not expect her to accomplish great things. And my understanding is that Russians weed out kids for body type as ruthlessly as anyone.

 

[iloveaxel]

It was an impressive interview and Vodorezova doesn't sound like someone who would waste 10 years of her life working with a foreign skater for free if she did not expect her to accomplish great things. And my understanding is that Russians weed out kids for body type as ruthlessly as anyone.

:chorus:

This is the most funny thing I've ever heard of.
I don't think it's so easy to predict your body type at age of 5.

Maybe Russians made a mistake this time?? Russia has not really produced a lot of world-class female skaters anyway.

 

[Spun Silver]

They've been doing it with gymnasts and ballet dancers for generations and I assume skaters as well.

 

[iloveaxel]

They've been doing it with gymnasts and ballet dancers for generations and I assume skaters as well.

Yes, and I have no doubt they do. But most female gymnasts' career end in the early 20s anyway.


In terms of selection, maybe Bin Yao made a mistake on Dan Zhang? She is just too tall for pairs skating so has to control her weight relentlessly.

 

[JonnyCoop]

Here's how I see it:

Carolina probably has as good a shot, if not a slightly better one, than anyone.
Sebestyen has gone back to being her wildly erratic self; for some reason I just can't see Sarah Meier as European champion (tho I said the same thing about Sebestyen at one point); I love Poykio but she isn't giving me any indication she's on the verge of a breakthrough that big; Sokolova is going to have to step up her game and FAST; and with Gedevanishvili's problems who knows for sure if she'll even be there, plus she has a bit of a disparity between what she can do in a short and what she can do in a long. So, yeah, I can see Carolina winning it. It certainly helps that the judges love her.

 

[MKFSfan]

Caro has a good shot. If she reels off a triple-triple in short program, Caro will be in excellent position going into long. Everybody is saying how consistent Sarah is this season, I don't buy it. Remember she still popped two jumps at GPF. She has not skated a totally clean long program. With triple-triples, Caro can afford to make 2 jump mistakes and still beat Sarah.

I wouldn't hold my hope high for Elene. Puberty monster is strucking her hard.

Looking at the #'s: Caro, at her Nationals where sometimes their own country likes to bloat scores, got a 60.54 for her SP and a 106.19 for her LP (166.73). Whereas, at GPF, Sarah got a 59.46 for her SP and a 110.82 for her LP (170.28). Having a 3/3 would certainly boost Caro's SP score-I presume she will include that at Euros-by 2.7 points.

It's true with Caro you just never know what you're getting with her. Her 3/3s, when done, are very big and effortless. Is she planning on putting the 3flip/3toe in her SP? And has she replaced a 3loop with a 3 lutz as her solo triple? I haven't seen her SP from Italian Nationals. Although she has a history of meltdowns when competing in Italy, so maybe that's why her LP wasn't so great. I have always liked Caro, she's very pretty and musical, with great speed and big jumps. This could very well be her year to win big at Euros.

 

[Kasey]

No need to go on lengthy explanations for it or anything, I'll just answer the question asked. No, probably not.

 

[anything_for_skating]

who said Caro is slow?!?!?!?!
She is one of the fastest skaters I've ever seen!

 

[mskater93]

According to people who saw Italian Nationals, she has slowed down from the bull in a china shop mode and has used that to get her jumps more under control. Not S-L-O-W but slower than she was.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

According to people who saw Italian Nationals, she has slowed down from the bull in a china shop mode and has used that to get her jumps more under control. Not S-L-O-W but slower than she was.

Now, if we can just get Bebe to slow it down a bit we might have a huge upset at US Nationals.

Joe

 

[iloveaxel]

Now, if we can just get Bebe to slow it down a bit we might have a huge upset at US Nationals.

Joe

Bebe' problem is not only her speed but also her jump height. She just can't get the height these days to cram in three reliable rotations. I predict she will bomb again at nationals.

 

[Sk8swan]

Just to point out there is a video of Carolina's LP from Nationals which plays really slow that might be why you had the impression she was slower. I saw her skating quite a few times recently and well my feeling was that she didn't slow down, at least not that much. You can watch both her sp and lp here: www.carolina-kostner.it/videos.htm She's going for 3flip-3toe and 3lutz in the SP. In the lp: 3flip-3toe, 3lutz (possibly in combination), 3loop, 3flip, 3loop-2loop, 3sal, 2axel. All jumps but lutz and flip are out of steps. She's still not 100% because of the injury but Nationals (compared to the past seasons) was very good. She looks much more confortable out there and much more into the music. The best for me it's her exhibition program to music specially composed for her. That's smth really really special and it just shows she loves skating to it You can watch it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mxOrRm7uzI.

 

[iloveaxel]

Yes

I predicted Caro Kostner would win gold on Jan 11, 2006, and YES, she nailed it with a program with world-class difficulty, flow and speed.


I now predict she will certainly medal at worlds in Tokyo. Caro has THE most difficult combo jump in the world - 3lutz+3toe+2loop. Her speed into jumps slows down quite a bit which makes her jumps much more consistent.

I always laugh the idea how consistent Sarah is. She IS NOT that consistent. Has she ever skated a long program with more than 5 triples this entire season?
She popped two jumps at GPF but still managed to medal simply because all the top Japanese women bombed terribly. I don't think Sarah belongs to the same elite group as Caro is firmly in.

There are five skaters that have a real shot at medals in Tokyo, all of them have triple+triple. They are Caro, Kimmie, Kim, Mao and Miki.

Sarah, Roachette will battle to get into the last flight.

Mira Leung is almost a shoo-in for top 10, I predict she will rank 7th by beating Joannie.

Those are my predictions.

 

[iloveaxel]

I am laughing while reading all the past predicitons.

She'll be lucky if she gets a medal. I can see the Suisse and the Finnish woman beating her, and add the Georgian and the #3 Russian.

Blue dog is terribly wrong!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Spun Silver
"The Georgian" - that would be the marvelous Elene Gedevanishvili? She's had such a hard year - it's great to have her back and I hope she makes the podium.

I don't believe she can keep it up by looking at her body built. She's a compact but tiny type, I am afraid to say puberty monster is going to destroy her.

iloveaxle nailed Elene as well, I am so proud of 'iloveaxel'!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by MKFSfan
My dream podium would be Sarah and Elene for sure! I think Sarah is the biggest threat for Gold, but Caro could cause an upset. Not sure how Elene has been with all the troubles she's had this season. Caro and Susanna are threats as well. Are there any other ladies competing that could be considered true threats, or just upsets?

Caro has a good shot. If she reels off a triple-triple in short program, Caro will be in excellent position going into long. Everybody is saying how consistent Sarah is this season, I don't buy it. Remember she still popped two jumps at GPF. She has not skated a totally clean long program. With triple-triples, Caro can afford to make 2 jump mistakes and still beat Sarah.

I wouldn't hold my hope high for Elene. Puberty monster is strucking her hard.

'iloveaxel' again predicted Sarah's fate very accurately!!!!

No need to go on lengthy explanations for it or anything, I'll just answer the question asked. No, probably not.

Kasey, you are also wrong!

 

[R.D.]

Umm, I don't understand? What's the meaning of this? At least when I like to say I was right, I do it tongue in cheek- but to go to this extent, even in my taste is over-the-top. You might want to delete the post or trim it down, IMO.

 

[amateur]

Do you have multiple personality disorder?

(directed at person above the last post)

 

[SeaniBu]

I think if "ipeople " were nicer to begin with they wouldn't have to go around "tooting their own horn."

 

[iloveaxel]

Umm, I don't understand? What's the meaning of this? At least when I like to say I was right, I do it tongue in cheek- but to go to this extent, even in my taste is over-the-top. You might want to delete the post or trim it down, IMO.

Calm down, let's just have a bit fun.