2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

[skylark]

Will we be seeing Karen before Nationals? I'd hate to think that her last event was all the prep she's going to have going in. I have to wonder how she's doing health wise. Was she injured at her last event?

She wasn't 100%. Why she withdrew, it's not clear whether she re-injured herself or just wasn't far enough along in her recovery. I tend toward the latter.

Here's her IG post:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BqysgE_nO36/

 

[bennorii]

Do you think USFS will send Ting to 4CC?

 

[Ice Dance]

Do you think USFS will send Ting to 4CC?

I think they will send her to 4CCs if she finishes top 3 among the age eligible ladies at Nationals or among the top 3 age eligible ladies who wish to go. (I would guess that the top three age eligible ladies from Nationals will all wish to go, especially as 4CCs is in the U.S. this year). USFS assigned her to a senior event in order for her to get her senior minimums after all.

 

[MarinHondas]

Actually, it's Gabriella that's likely fighting with Ting and Hanna for a JW spot. Pooja has scored lowly this year in spite of being consistent. Hanna has a bigger BV and beat her by 15 points in sectionals. Gabriella score 175 in sectionals which was not only higher than Hanna's 173, but was without a Choreographical sequence to boost her score. There is also Ashley Lin, who did Asian Open as a Junior and scored weakly. Then she skated as a senior in Nebelhorn and got one of the highest score of the season 181. However her next competition she only scored a 165. Of course there is still Audrey, but her underrotations take her out of any conversation. Emilia Murdock was assigned to Golden Bear and scored well. However she only scored a 162 at sectionals. Below everyone except Audrey and Pooja.

Based on who is competing this year, this is my Junior Worlds list.

Ting
Gabriella vs Hanna
Ashley Lin (spoiler)
Emilia (substitute)
Pooja (substitute)
Audrey Shin (substitute)

Keep in mind Nationals will change a lot of things. For the girls skating senior, it's the first time they've skated in front of a full audience. That can create some huge nerves. For the juniors, some of them have never medaled at nationals so that will cause a lot of pressure as well.

However, it's looking more like we have a good pool of skaters to not only get us 3 spots at JW but also 15 spots on the JGP.

I think sending Gabriella would be similar to sending Emmy last year... but Emmy even had a JGP medal. Gabriella is rather inconsistent and has no high scoring combos. I would rather Pooja or Hanna, who will almost definitely be top 12.

 

[princessalica]

I'm not saying that alysa will podium - someone commented "Alysa?" And so I was clarifying who Alysa was. She could be a factor if she's clean. I totally can get why they might be stingy on PCS with her because she is so young, but she could have an impact.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think there are only two spots for worlds though, and I can't see anyone overtaking Bradie and Mariah right well. Even if one of them falters at nationals there are still compelling reasons to send both to Worlds—Bradie, as the only Grand Prix medalist this season; Mariah with a new higher SB and making steady progress.

Mariah is the clear #2 right now, but she won't make the world team without a top 2 finish at Nationals (among age-eligible women). It would be controversial to knock someone off the World team in favor of a skater who has won no international medals, even at a senior B, in the last two seasons.

 

[Sugar Coated]

Mariah is the clear #2 right now, but she won't make the world team without a top 2 finish at Nationals (among age-eligible women). It would be controversial to knock someone off the World team in favor of a skater who has won no international medals, even at a senior B, in the last two seasons.

If Ting keeps improving and has a strong showing at nationals I think she should be number 2. It makes sense to start getting her more high level experience, especially since Bradie and Mariah are older and may or may not have that many competitive years left. To me it makes sense to send one seasoned skater and one younger skater as a potential investment in the future. But I get that they also need to ensure future spots at Worlds.

It will be really interesting if Bradie struggles at nationals and doesn’t skate clean and Mariah and Ting do.

 

[mrrice]

Bradie, as the reigning champion, is the only skater that I feel the judges will "Hold Up." As a former champion, I had hopes for Karen but I'm worried about her health and lack of training time. At this point, I would select the top finishers and call it a day. It's 4CC where I believe things could be interesting. Should either of the top 2 choose to skip it...Who knows.

 

[Jammers]

If Ting keeps improving and has a strong showing at nationals I think she should be number 2. It makes sense to start getting her more high level experience, especially since Bradie and Mariah are older and may or may not have that many competitive years left. To me it makes sense to send one seasoned skater and one younger skater as a potential investment in the future. But I get that they also need to ensure future spots at Worlds.

It will be really interesting if Bradie struggles at nationals and doesn’t skate clean and Mariah and Ting do.

I think the combination of s seasoned older skater and a young upcoming skater is the way the US will get that 3rd spot back. It's that combination that got the 3rd spot back in 2013 just in time for the Olympics in Sochi. Bradie could finish as high as 5th but not sure any other US ladies could finish as high as Gracie did in her Worlds debut. Gracie though new on the Senior GP had already medaled at COR and had crazy technical ability including her jumps and 3-3 combos and the judges loved her too judging by her high scores when she skated well.

 

[andromache]

I don't think we'll get three spots back until Alya Liu turns senior (assuming she stays healthy and doesn't lose her jumps).

That said, it's wayyyyyyyy harder to get three spots nowadays than it used to be, even only a few years ago. As the depth in Korean ladies increases and their promising juniors turn senior, that's going to continue to be a problem for the US ladies.

 

[princessalica]

I don't think we'll get three spots back until Alya Liu turns senior (assuming she stays healthy and doesn't lose her jumps).

That said, it's wayyyyyyyy harder to get three spots nowadays than it used to be, even only a few years ago. As the depth in Korean ladies increases and their promising juniors turn senior, that's going to continue to be a problem for the US ladies.

but at the same time, its not looking terribly promising for Canadian ladies, depending on Gaby. No one outside of Gaby and Katelyn are very competitive. Alaine could be, but she tends to not compete well. They've got three spots for this year, but its likely that some of those skaters will not make it to the long program.

Ice is slippery, anything can happen. So I think we could get te spots back sooner than we think, or we could come nowhere close. It just depends on the day and how all of the skaters are skating.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

That said, it's wayyyyyyyy harder to get three spots nowadays than it used to be, even only a few years ago. As the depth in Korean ladies increases and their promising juniors turn senior, that's going to continue to be a problem for the US ladies.

It really is. Russia and Japan have pipelines of skaters ready for top 10 world finishes. Assuming Bradie is solid, our second skater still has to beat a lot of talented women for a combined 13 placement. Worlds is always a wildcard, as we almost saw Russia lose their third spot last year, but Japan having three women now makes everything a little more difficult for the US.

 

[oatmella]

I don't see Bradie skipping 4CC - she has even filmed a promo for the event - as did Zach/Madison, Vincent, and I think Jason? I don't think Mariah will skip either if she gets 4CC - the competition is nearby for her.

Hoping Ting will be there as well. I don't see Karen being very ready for Nationals, let alone 4CC unless something drastic happens.

 

[mrrice]

It really is. Russia and Japan have pipelines of skaters ready for top 10 world finishes. Assuming Bradie is solid, our second skater still has to beat a lot of talented women for a combined 13 placement. Worlds is always a wildcard, as we almost saw Russia lose their third spot last year, but Japan having three women now makes everything a little more difficult for the US.

I don't mind us not having a 3rd spot until we're really ready. None of the US Ladies made the GPF and for the time being. I'd rather see stiff competition for the 2 spots we have than send a skater who doesn't make it out of the SP.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I don't mind us not having a 3rd spot until we're really ready. None of the US Ladies made the GPF and for the time being. I'd rather see stiff competition for the 2 spots we have than send a skater who doesn't make it out of the SP.

Good point. The US ladies field is the weakest it's been perhaps ever.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I don't see Karen being very ready for Nationals, let alone 4CC unless something drastic happens.

I'm somewhat encouraged by Karen's recent outing. She landed a fully rotated lutz, so I'd expect a few more of her easier jumps to be in decent shape. I think her biggest obstacle will be having the stamina to finish a LP with second-half triples. But I think you're right that Nationals will probably be too soon for her to deliver two solid programs, and it's hard to argue she should be on the 4CC team without a high enough placement at Nationals.

 

[sheetz]

I don't think Mariah will skip either if she gets 4CC - the competition is nearby for her.

More than that, I understand the 4CC practice rink is supposed to be Team Raf's new training facility.

 

[MarinHondas]

I don't mind us not having a 3rd spot until we're really ready. None of the US Ladies made the GPF and for the time being. I'd rather see stiff competition for the 2 spots we have than send a skater who doesn't make it out of the SP.

while I agree we don't need or deserve two spots I highly doubt our third lady wouldn't make it out of the short

 

[frida80]

I don't mind us not having a 3rd spot until we're really ready. None of the US Ladies made the GPF and for the time being. I'd rather see stiff competition for the 2 spots we have than send a skater who doesn't make it out of the SP.

If we had three spots, all three ladies would make the top 10. 204, 199, and 198 is nothing to sneeze at. All of them can score higher as well.

I’m very eager to see both Mariah and Bradie this week at Golden Spin. Bradie problem has been botching her SP. If she can nail her SP at GS, nationals, and 4CC, she should be scoring around 76 and have a good score increase to about 218 or higher. Around Kaori’s score. As for Mariah, her BV will keep her from going higher than 210. But she really needs a clean SP to achieve it. Her FS is looking strong this year. I think Ting’s BV would give her a really good senior score. Around 215 or higher. Judges really love her jumps.

I like that there is now a fight for the world’s spot. It will push Mariah to skate her SP clearly. She’s worked really hard this year to improve her consistency. I think she just needs a small horse race to get her to focus on the prize.

As for Ting, I wonder if that score from Tallinn will spook her a bit. Traditionally, when you get a massive score that you weren’t expecting, your next competition is not good. I hope she can settle her nerves. She’s made steady progress at each skate this season.

1st JGP both SP and FS bombed. SP had no combo. FS: 1st half was good, 2nd, two falls and a pop.
2. Clean SP, with massive score. (70!) bombed FS. Three falls, no second triple triple.
3. (Sectionals) Ok SP and FS. Fall on 3F in the SP. FS: skips Eu+3S and falls on final 3F.
4. (Tallinn) Ok SP much improved FS. SP: nails combo and gets high GoE, but falls on 3F. FS: falls on 1st combo, but nails everything else.

I really hope we get three spots. I think we have some solid competitors right now. But one more JW for Ting won’t hurt her. It will just make her fired up for next season.

 

[mrrice]

while I agree we don't need or deserve two spots I highly doubt our third lady wouldn't make it out of the short

Valid point. I still think Bradie and Mariah are the only "Senior" skaters who are fully prepared to go at this time. Karen and I would also include Starr are on the bubble.