- Joined
- Mar 3, 2007
I agree. Losing three spots was rough when we had deserving skaters. At the moment we really don’t.
2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating
- Thread starter Spirals for Miles
- Start date
I agree. Losing three spots was rough when we had deserving skaters. At the moment we really don’t.
I think you are being a little too ambitious about these girls scoring abilities. Bradie at 218, Ting at 215? Are you talking about at Nationals?
76 for Bradie is just not realistic in an international field. The 3Lz-3Lo combo is being judged very harshly this year across the board and her probability of landing one clean is not high. Even if she does and skates cleanly, I think her PCS will be capped around 33, giving her a max score of around ~73. Her free skate will be even more under the microscope UR wise, and I don't see her PCS going above 70. I think realistically two clean skates from Bradie, with of courses a couple of things that may be deemed UR (even though they appear clean), will score ~210.
Ting did score 132 at a senior B but at something like Worlds it is hard to believe those scores will hold up. She is rather inconsistent on a number of levels. She hasn't even been doing that well on the Junior circuit and wasn't even close to qualifying for the Junior Grand Prix Final, so to suggest that she is going to get ~215, a score most of the ladies in the Senior GPF will have a hard time getting, is not understandable. Evgenia Medvedeva won't even get to 215 if she skates clean.
I'm not being ambitious. im simply saying if they were clean, that's what they would score. With Ting, that's absolutely what she would score if she could skate clean. Her TES is actually not inflated. Those are the same GoE she got on the JGP. Her PCS scores were nugged a little. For example her PCS for her clean SP at her 2nd JGP was 29. At her CS it was 31. And deservedly so, she really worked on her components since September.
I estimate max scores based on what a skater would score based on how individual elements scored that season clean. The PCS score for a clean program averages 5-6 total points more than an unclean program. In other words, judges love to add in a "clean" bonus. So with Ting I add 4 points to her SP for the points she lost on her flip. Five points for what she lost on her combo. Two points for the fall deductions and another 4 for being clean. All together that's 15 points. Or around 215.
As for Bradie, yes it will be harder for her to get a ratified 3Lz+3Lo. However, she has the perfect opportunity here. Harder combos are more often ratified at CS and at domestic competitions! So she's more likely to get her combo ratified this weekend, nationals and at 4CC! What's important about that is that once there is precident for ratification, judges will simply ratify from then on. In order words, she she lands it well and consistently for the next three competitions, at Worlds the follow through unless Shin Amano is on the tech panel.
How to you think all these skaters have gotten away with all these lips and flutzes for so long? The only reason Bradie is getting calls is because she has no reputation. She just needs someone at Zagreb to call her combos clean and it will snowball from there.
So, if Bradie score a clean program she should have around 76. Her score at AC was 69 with just a F<. Her FS is around 136 with 3 <'s. Eliminate those and her score will jump 8 points. So that's a 222. But I still think she has a stamina problem with her 3T. So I'm rounding down to 218.
Both Ting and Bradie are having late starts. Ting moved to a new area with a new coach, learned new technique on her jumps and also started doing a new 3Lz+3T combo with Rippons over both jumps. She's slowly adjusting and improving over the season. I honestly don't care about her JGP results, since last year she peaked at JW with a 180. A difference of 30 points from her JGP score.
Same thing with Bradie. She's adjusting to including a new combo, greater difficulty, and being US #1 lady. I strongly feel they both just need to hit their stride and coming closer to doing it.
Keep in mind, when it comes to score I'm a super pragmatist. I don't buy into hype. I just go with pure facts when I predict. These are the best scores I expect either lady can get clean.
1. Scoring at these events (ACI, Zagreb, etc.) is inflated and not particularly representative of what you will see at GPs/Worlds/Senior As
2. You are calculating ABSOLUTE best case scenario results, as you acknowledge...they mean nothing if they are not followed through. As we know, Ting is not very consistent and Bradie, while more consistent, has been getting lots of URs lately (and there is no guarantee they go away after she attends some senior Bs...after all ACI, which is a senior B, is where she got those 4 calls). If we were to calculate best case scenarios for all the other girls, Ting's 215 and Bradie's 218 would not look so good. Rika and Alina would be well above 240, as would Trusova and Scherbakova. Miyahara, Tuk, Sakamoto, Kostornaia, Medvedeva, and more would be well above 220 as well. Wakaba too, along with probably more Russian girls. Carolina Kostner, let's not forget.
3. With all that being said, I still fail to see how your numbers add up. With Bradie, yes, at ACI she got 69 in her short with a F<, so she could have gotten 2.5-3 points more. The F appeared clean so there is no way it hurt her PCS by much. Also 69 + 136 = 205, and 205 + 8 = 213, not 222. Where did the 222 come from? And just to be clear Bradie was effectively clean at ACI and her PCS basically maxed out because when they marked her PCS likely the URs has not yet registered.
Bradie's still not that experienced a skater--this is really her only second season at the international seniors level. She was out with injuries and then made a big jump into the upper ranks. I think she's actually still figuring out competitive strategies, adapting to the criticisms of her style, incorporating new things. At her best, however, she can bang out a hell of a free skate--she won her bronze at the harder GP.
The Russians and Japanese are so dominant that they account for all of the top 9 GP placements. Bradie at no. 10 is the highest-ranked skater who's neither. Mariah's a couple of spots behind her.
It is vaguely possible that the two of them could, with clean skates and some luck, combine to get three spots back.
The Russians and Japanese are so dominant that they account for all of the top 9 GP placements. Bradie at no. 10 is the highest-ranked skater who's neither. Mariah's a couple of spots behind her.
It is vaguely possible that the two of them could, with clean skates and some luck, combine to get three spots back.
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2014
Yes, it’s again with some luck. Just based on potential, neither of them are close to the Russian and a Japanese ladies. Also to be honest, neither Bradie nor Mariah has that star quality X factor that makes the media go Gaga and puts judges in a generous mood (aka Zhenya, Sasha Cohen, Yuna). Bradie’s Lutz edge is also shallow and potentially prone to ! Calls if you get an edge Uber tech caller like Shin Amano. For me, the two top US ladies are solid but just not special - primarily as I am an Uber fan of SS and US ladies.....let’s just say basic edges and bladework are not their strength at all. They will improve and win back the spots for US but I don’t think it is this year.
I’m not just looking at ACI or Tallinn, I’m looking at skatingscores.com. What I am actually doing is looking at how each element was best scored, then I add them all together. There’s always an inflation at worlds, so I take that into account too.
Except at a few events like Lombardia, CS scores are not really inflated. Like I said before, Ting’s score wasn’t inflated. Her PCS score was slightly higher than her JGP scores. 29-31. But her GOE are pretty much the same.
PCS scores rise as the season goes on, especially if the skater starts winning medals. So Bradie’s score will be much higher later in the season than at her very first competition. It’s why Alina beat Zhenia. Her PCS scores spiked the more she won. Same thing happened with Nathan and Shoma.
I’m calculating things based on the trajectory of the skater. No skater stays the same throughout the season. Some skaters have a “W” pattern where they triump at one competitions s fizzle the next. Others start strong and fizzle out as the season goes on. And then there are the late bloomers. The start modestly or weak and improve slowly over the course of the season. This seems to be the case with Ting and both Bradie. The reason for the bad results early in the season was because of all the changes they’ve both had. They just needed time to adjust to them.
I honestly don’t care how Alina scores because I have her in first or second. So that’s irrelevant in regards to Bradie. What I care about are Bradie’s scores in relation to the third Japanese Lady, most likely Kaori and how the third Russian is scoring. (Wakaba hasn’t been out with an injury, which tends to end your season regardless. I don’t see her making the world team unless miraculously, she is one of the few skaters that can come back from a injury mid-season and have it not mess with her jump consistency.) If Bradie can beat both of them, she’ll be in fourth. But I think fifth is a pretty good goal. It’s not about medals for me, but three spots. As for the second spot, I would need either Mariah or Ting to be in eighth or ninth. Doable consisting how everyone else is scoring.
To get her “best scores” I’m adding in both the TES points lost with < and the GOE they would get with clean jumps. Also any levels they should’ve gotten. Bradie got two level three on spins when she normally gets her levels. Last year Bradie’s highest score was 68.94 with a 3Lz+3T combo and a Loop. Her BV has actually increased by a full point. Her PCS score has risen by 2. This new scoring system works to her favor as well. Her TES for her SP should be around 43. Her PCS should still be modest, 33. That makes 76. 74, if the judges are being stingy. That won’t happen at 4CC. A home crowd cheering will boost her scores as expected. 74-76 is a score she should expect when clean.
Also this is what happened to Bradie’s SP score from each competition last year. The first was 64 points, clean. The second 67 points clean. The third was nearly 69 points. A difference of five points from the start of the season. So no points are never maxed at the beginning of the season. As the skater improves his or her presentation, the judges will always score it higher unless they did their best ever performance and the judges liked it better then, like Yuzuru at worlds 2016. The just thought he was better at the GPF.
It’s the just the flow of the season, Bradie’s scores will rise even more because she has some good luck coming. Nationals, always has a good effect on score. 4CC is in the US. I personally though Ashley was way better at 2015 GPF with her FS. But she still scored higher at worlds. (Still cried after the end of her skate though.) That home crowd will do it everytime. A 4CC medal will boost her PCS score at worlds. (Yes, they increase your PCS based on if you medal at events and how consistent you are. It is not a reflection of your skating skills. PCS is just a repution scoring system. It really needs to be reformed.)
Trust me, Bradie will be fine. 218-222 clean. Ting would most likely fizzle at worlds because it would be too much for a kid to take all at once. However, she did have a moment where when she though two spots were in jeopardy at JW and nailed two strong programs. If she could lock into that mind set, she would be formidable. But she’s most likely going to JW. Her score there would be around 200, because they have a cap on PCS scores for juniors. No medal unless Russia feds does something stupid like not send all three of their top scoring juniors and and a third girl that didn’t even make the JGPF like last year. Then that spot would be open. But no way they could be that stupid... I hope.
Mariah would be around 210 if she could get her SP clean. That’s been her nemesis for three seasons now. She scored a 70 at nebelhorn. I can see that score peaking at 73 at 4CC, if she gets all her levels and her PCS score goes up to 32. The hometown effect should be good. Just keep it together, Mariah.
Yuck. This has such a word vomit on how I make my predictions as the season goes on. You should ignore it as it probably looks like incoherent ramblings of a mad woman. But eventually I will make a blog about all the phenomenon that happen in figure skating that effect scores and predicting skating behavior. From a marketing and analytical background, it’s super fascinating. As for now, I’m off to watch Golden Spin.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
Seeing how these skaters perform at Nationals is a really good indicator of how they handle serious pressure. Skating great at a senior B in front of a couple of hundred people is a lot different than performing at a nationally televised event in a packed arena. This is why I think the USFSA weighs the Nationals result so heavily when assigning skaters to other events.
Russians and Japanese alone can't take the top 9 placements at Worlds. At most they can take the top 6.
Still, even if Americans are 7 and 8, that wouldn't be enough for 3 spots. For that, at least one American would need to place in the top 6, and the other not far out.
- Joined
- Sep 21, 2016
True. Hoping Mariah can place in the top 5. Bradie has been dinged with URs this season.
- Joined
- Jul 9, 2014
Has Bradie been dinged for jumps other than her Lutz/Loop? Maybe she can double the loop and she'll still have great tech content. I love Mariah but, I still see Bradie as the top US Lady.
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2014
No more URs than any other lady. And she improved on them from Skate America to France. (That 3Lz-3Lo in the LP was CLEAN, darn it!)
Will be intriguing to see how judges at Golden Spin award PCS between Bradie and Mariah, if both skate relatively well.
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2016
She gets more points for 3ltz-3lo< than 3ltz-2lo.
I guess we just have different approaches to "predictions". I do agree with your trajectories/thoughts on PCS but they are only realistic if Bradie/Ting skate clean for every single skate up until Worlds, that is when their PCS and GOEs will go up. Personally I find past results and consistency more accurate in making predictions than a best case scenario for particular skaters, since we do not know if their reputations will improve by skating cleanly each time.
More realistically (non best case scenario) Bradie finishing 4th at worlds is not likely (this would mean she would have to beat Miyahara or Tukt, in addition to the third Russian AND third Japanese). There is Alina and Rika, plus Tuk, Sakamoto, and at least one of additional Russian, additional Japanese. If we just use "best case scenario" logic Kostner would beat her too. So I think 6th is a good goal, her likely finish position is 7th or 8th. Mariah needs a triple triple, then I would say she can finish right behind Bradie, in 8th or 9th. Ting will have a hard time making the top 10 for obvious reasons.
"It’s the just the flow of the season, Bradie’s scores will rise even more because she has some good luck coming. " LOL are you a psychic or something?
Bradie's "luck" is that she has a Major ISU event in the US. Skaters in the home country always have a big boost in scores and placement when this happens. Just because of that I think she's highly likely to medal. If she does, her scores will increase as well.
Carolina I doubt will going to be at Worlds. She has a hip injury. Even if she were, her scores would drop like Zhenia's. She's not a factor at all here. Fourth is completely doable if Zhenia fails to make the Worlds team. If Bradie simply nails her combo in the SP her scores will be on par with Kaori.
I always avoid using the beginning of the season scores for later predictions. By custom, most CS competition score more modestly than later competitions. Skaters who seem weak at first can improve as the season goes along. And it's easy to see the signs if you look at each competitons and see where they've improved. That's what happened to Kaori last year, Karen two seasons ago, Nathan in 2016-2017 the list goes on. What is happening with Bradieia she's has upgrading her combo and difficulty. It takes months for some consistency. With Ting, more difficultly, new combo, new coaches and a new city. That's a lot of change! As the season goes on, they're both improving.
As for the JGPF. I always consider that a colossal joke. Completely stupid. It's so overrated. Vincent didn't make the final either. And then won JW that March. Marin got a bronze and then won JW the next season. It favors the ones that peak early. Juniors are always in a learning mode, upgrading and changing. It takes several months to master a new jump combo. So it's no surprise that Marin, who botched her combo during the JGP would final master it at JW. Or Ting, who bombed her FS last year at the JGP would nail it at JW. It's why I never take fall competitions seriously. I look at the trajectory. What's new? What's upgraded? What's changed? Once I see a pattern, I can judge from there.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
The problem is that it prevents her from doing another triple that she could rotate. For example, a 2A-3T plus a 3Lz-2Lo would be better than a 2A-2Lo plus a 3Lz-3Lo<. Personally I think her rotation is generally better than the tech panels have been giving her credit for lately, but she has to plan her elements on how she's getting marked (and not based on what I think). It seems like the combo is a good risk for the LP as long as she's getting everything else rotated. If she continues to get a few < in her programs, she probably needs to change to an easier layout.
BTW, Bradie is skating third at Golden Spin. The ladies SP starts at 2am EST, just about an hour and 15 minutes after the Senior Ladies GPF SP finishes up. For any nightowls who want to see it, the link to the stream is http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6yf4yz
I don't think Bradie should "plan her elements on how she's getting marked" or dumb her programs down. That's a sure way for her to slide down the rankings.
At Worlds 2018, with the dreaded Shin Amano as TS, Bradie still managed to place 4th in the FS despite a few <. And she was pretty much a newbie at that point.
Bradie is an intelligent person, and she is a tough competitor. Let her do it her way.
At Worlds 2018, with the dreaded Shin Amano as TS, Bradie still managed to place 4th in the FS despite a few <. And she was pretty much a newbie at that point.
Bradie is an intelligent person, and she is a tough competitor. Let her do it her way.
I'm with Frida80 in that I don't think Kostner's a factor this season. So, it's really a question of whether Bradie (and it will be Bradie), our no. 1 US Lady, can beat out the third ladies of Japan and Russia and get fifth and then whether Mariah or Ting can pull in a strong enough skate to pull in just behind them--so, say, Bradie fifth, Mariah eighth.
Bradie was sixth last year at Worlds, though she was helped by Japan getting only two spots. On the other hand, Kostner's not a major contender and the Canadians seem to be on a sort of break. The Russians are going to be Zags and possibly two fairly inexperienced younger skaters. Japan will probably be strong, but it's possible one skater will have a weak skate.
Bradie has decent nerves--she's had fumbles, but her skates don't fall apart--and she's already been under a ton of pressure at this point. (Mariah, alas, makes me nervous--so beautiful when it's all working, but consistency has been a bugabear.)
So, I'm not saying I'd bet on this, just that it's not impossible.
Bradie was sixth last year at Worlds, though she was helped by Japan getting only two spots. On the other hand, Kostner's not a major contender and the Canadians seem to be on a sort of break. The Russians are going to be Zags and possibly two fairly inexperienced younger skaters. Japan will probably be strong, but it's possible one skater will have a weak skate.
Bradie has decent nerves--she's had fumbles, but her skates don't fall apart--and she's already been under a ton of pressure at this point. (Mariah, alas, makes me nervous--so beautiful when it's all working, but consistency has been a bugabear.)
So, I'm not saying I'd bet on this, just that it's not impossible.
- Joined
- Oct 21, 2013
Girl changed her music and program again. How is she going to be ready with two new programs by Nationals?
Music Short Program / Short Dance as of season 2018/2019
Malaguena by Ernesto Lecuona
Asturias by Isaac Albeniz
Music Free Skating / Free Dance as of season 2018/2019
Trio Elegiaque No. 3 by Sergei Rachmaninov
http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00034366.htm
Music Short Program / Short Dance as of season 2018/2019
Malaguena by Ernesto Lecuona
Asturias by Isaac Albeniz
Music Free Skating / Free Dance as of season 2018/2019
Trio Elegiaque No. 3 by Sergei Rachmaninov
http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00034366.htm
