Meissner vs Asada...

[krenseby]

Here's a question that looks to the future. Namely, what does Meissner need to add to her SP and LP to be able to beat Asada at a Grand Prix competition next year?

I think Meissner herself wants to be competitive against Asada, but her program right now just doesn't give her the chance to beat Mao's clean skates or even skates with a few mistakes.

Hopefully you won't say that she needs the triple axel to do it. Hopefully what she can do is do more complicated spins to score some points as well as add a combination of three jumps (a triple-triple-double)

 

[iloveaxel]

never

Kimmie is a solid skater, the best of all current American girls. But unfortunately, there's no way she can catch up with Mao.

Technically, it's a non-starter, plus Mao really has that 'IT' factor that Kimmie will never have.

Don't get me wrong, Kimmie can still beat Mao, but I just don't believe they are at the same level.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Kimmie is a solid skater, the best of all current American girls. But unfortunately, there's no way she can catch up with Mao.

Technically, it's a non-starter, plus Mao really has that 'IT' factor that Kimmie will never have.

Don't get me wrong, Kimmie can still beat Mao, but I just don't believe they are at the same level.

you have a point. Asada seems to just naturally "flow" across the ice... her spirals and spins are much harder. Her flexiblity allows her to achive better positions in spins and spirals.. belliman etc. that kimmie can not, or i doubt ever will achive. True, kimmie's spiral is much better thi season, and her layback is rather pretty(she dosen't hold it l ong enough though) but usually girls lose their extension with age.. and if she was natuarlly flexible, she would be using the belliman fan spiral etc long ago.

kimmie can beat asada, not she is not reallt the same type of sakter. not in that class. CArloine Zhang however.... that is an Asada threat if i ever saw one. I hope she skates as a senior next year and show the world what us american are made of!:chorus:

 

[Zuranthium]

Kimmie needs a consistent 3Axle to beat Asada and she needs to put it in her Short Program.

Then Asada would be forced to do the 3Axle in her Short Program and that would be really cool, because her base technical score for the Short Program would be higher than that of any Men's Short Program which didn't include a Quad!

~Z

 

[iloveaxel]

Kimmie needs a consistent 3Axle to beat Asada and she needs to put it in her Short Program.

Then Asada would be forced to do the 3Axle in her Short Program and that would be really cool, because her base technical score for the Short Program would be higher than that of any Men's Short Program which didn't include a Quad!

~Z

It's NOT just a 3A. Asada really has the charisma. She floats across the ice and everything seems so easy to her, especially her jumps. Kimmie is better than Emily, but still there's sth lacking in her skating. That sort of overall quality is more important than comparision of element-by-element breakdown. it's that intangible thing that she'll never have.

I do believe Mao is a very very rare talent.

Too early to predict Caroline Zhang, she has that intangible 'IT'. But her technical deficiency especially jumps is also very obvious. We'll see how she's going to address those things in the future.

 

[flying camel]

At this point in Kimmie's career her best bet is to skate clean. Mao hasn't been all that consistent this season. Anything could happen.

 

[Zuranthium]

It's NOT just a 3A. Asada really has the charisma. She floats across the ice and everything seems so easy to her, especially her jumps. Kimmie is better than Emily, but still there's sth lacking in her skating. That sort of overall quality is more important than comparision of element-by-element breakdown. it's that intangible thing that she'll never have.

I agree with you, I'm simply stating what Kimmie needs. Mao with a couple mistakes will beat Kimmie without a 3Axle. Mao with a couple mistakes will NOT beat Kimmie with a 3Axle.

~Z

 

[waxel]

I agree. Mao has something that Kimmie will never have. Natural born star quality. Can't be taught. Can't be learned. Mao is certainly not unbeatable and I expect that Kimmie will beat her more than once during the coming years.

 

[riverflows]

IMHO, Mao will have to mess up for Kimmie to beat her.

Presentation-wise, Caroline could possibly beat Mao (she can attend the Sr GP next season, yes?). Technically, she'll need a 3-3 or a 3A. We already saw Mao go head to head with a skater like Caroline (Sasha), and in the SP where they were both technically perfect, Mao had the edge and in the LP, even though Mao caught an edge on the spin, she still won by a pretty sizable margin.

 

[flying camel]

I think you need to be 15 to enter the gand prix. So, Caroline would be too young. But Flatt can have a shot at it.

 

[R.D.]

Too soon to tell about Zhang. Folks are building her up again when we don't even know what's in store for her.

As for Mao vs. Kimmie, I agree I'd give Asada the edge. But it depends on how the two skate on any given night...and I think at SA (their only face-to-face international comp...?) KM placed 2nd and Asada 3rd.

However there's no reason to think she's completely untouchable...she's slipped up in two out of four comps and thus failed to win those. I hope someone else wins worlds but I'd not think I'd get upset if she won anyway.

 

[Sylvia]

I think you need to be 15 to enter the gand prix. So, Caroline would be too young. But Flatt can have a shot at it.

14-year-old skaters can compete in Senior Grand Prix events (*IF* they meet the selection criteria to be invited), so Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu and Rachael Flatt would all be old enough in the 2007-08 season, but it's more likely that they will compete in the Junior Grand Prix this fall. Zhang has stated in a recent article that she's planning to compete in the JGP this fall, but we'll have to wait and see what happens at Jr. Worlds and beyond. Nagasu and Flatt both have yet to compete in a JGP (Flatt withdrew from the Mexico JGP last fall due to injury).

Mao Asada turned 15 in the fall of 2005 (she was still 14 as of the ISU's age deadline of July 1, 2005) when she made her Senior Grand Prix debut and won the Sr. GP Final, but was too young for the 2006 Olympics and Worlds, remember?

 

[rain]

Eh, I find Asada very overrated in the presentation department, and while a pleasant enough young skater, not at all as out of Meissner's league as some seem to believe. Her present jump layout does seem to give her an edge over a lot of skaters, however, we have seen this season that she is not invulnerable. I must say I hope to see something a little less wind-up-ballerina from her soon.

Meissner needs to throw both her triple/triple combos in there and continue to develop her artistry as she now is.

 

[Spun Silver]

Mao may be a wind-up ballerina (give her time ) but I'm not sure what Kimmie is. She hasn't found her own style yet - she always seems to be gluing on some gesture to give her an ethnic or "youth" look, whether it's Egyptian hands or switching her hips. I find it phony and irritating. I think she'd do well in a unitard and a more athletic style. Mira Leung did Catwoman, didn't she? maybe Kimmie can do Batwoman or Wonder Woman or Maria Sharapova. As long as she moves well, I don't think Presentation has to = Ballet Style.

 

[antmanb]

Here's a question that looks to the future. Namely, what does Meissner need to add to her SP and LP to be able to beat Asada at a Grand Prix competition next year?

I think Meissner herself wants to be competitive against Asada, but her program right now just doesn't give her the chance to beat Mao's clean skates or even skates with a few mistakes.

Hopefully you won't say that she needs the triple axel to do it. Hopefully what she can do is do more complicated spins to score some points as well as add a combination of three jumps (a triple-triple-double)

It doesn't make any sense to add a 3/3/2 if you already plan two 3/3s and a 2/2/2. COP doesn't recognise the difficulty in putting that double on the end of a more difficult 3/3 compared to the easier 2/2. In fact Kimmie's 2/2/2 combination is perfectly placed at the end where she receives the bonus for having it ni the second half of her program.

Jump-wise the only thing she can add to up the ante is the triple axel.

As for spins and footwork - i think its been shown time and again that the negligable increase from managaing spins of higher level aren't even worth one of the easier double jumps let alone a double axel or triple jump.

Ant

 

[antmanb]

Kimmie needs a consistent 3Axle to beat Asada and she needs to put it in her Short Program.

Then Asada would be forced to do the 3Axle in her Short Program and that would be really cool, because her base technical score for the Short Program would be higher than that of any Men's Short Program which didn't include a Quad!

~Z

Not necessarily. I don't think the ladies SP requirements have ever been changed to a double or triple axel. I think the double axel is still specified just like the combination is 3/2, 2/3 or 3/3 there's no mention of a quad for the ladies. Until the rules are changed if a lady wished to include a 3A in the SP she'd either have to do it as a combination or as a solo element with steps into it lpus a solo double axel.

Come to think of it, Mao does the steps into 3A already so she might be able to push her technical there.

Ant

 

[satorare]

Frankly, Meissner has no chance against clean Asada.
Even Kimmie plans 8 triples FS with 3A, her base value can't catch up.
Mao have better non-jump elements, GOE and PCS.
If Kimmie could win Mao with one fall, she will be able to medal at any event by her own effort.
About Caroline Zhang, it's too early to tell. She reminds me of 13 year old Bebe Liang.

 

[demarinis5]

I would have to give the edge to Asada in the SP. Kimmie is capable of putting in 2 3/3 in her long program which I think she will do. Many posters think that Asada is the better skater because of her combination of artistry and technical skills (not disputing this) and with that she should win over Kimmie. But winning a competition has do with so much more, skills like consistency, determination and mental toughness comes into play and imo Kimmie has proven she has those skills so I give Kimmie the edge in the LP . Also a little bit of luck never hurt.

 

[antmanb]

Frankly, Meissner has no chance against clean Asada.
Even Kimmie plans 8 triples FS with 3A, her base value can't catch up.
Mao have better non-jump elements, GOE and PCS.
If Kimmie could win Mao with one fall, she will be able to medal at any event by her own effort.
About Caroline Zhang, it's too early to tell. She reminds me of 13 year old Bebe Liang.

Well here's the perfect jump plan for both skaters:

Kimmie

3Lz/3T 10.0
3A 7.5
3F/3T 9.5
3S x 4.95
3Lp x 5.5
3Lz x 6.60
2A/2T/2Lp x 6.71

Total 50.76

Mao

3A 7.5
2A/3T 7.3
3F/3Lp 10.5
2A or 3A x 3.63 or 8.25
3Lz x 6.6
3F x 6.05
3Lz/2Lp/2Lp x 9.9

Total 51.48 if the program contains only 1 triple axel or
56.10 if the program contains two triple axels.


If each one lands one triple axel in the program then the point difference isn't even a point. If Mao does successfully land a second triple axel then the point difference becomes mor around 5 points.

I don't think you can count Kimmie out seeing as how she appears to be building like she did last season. Also Mao has been up and down all season in the LP and there's particular reason to think that she will definitely be having a good night. She is a great SP skater so she will likely be in the lead after the SP (given the content in there) unless she falls. Kimmie seems to do pretty well rallying back from behind....

It going to be a good competition.

Ant

 

[MKFSfan]

I agree...makes for a good competition if both come out blazing!

I agree with the majority here (maybe everyone??) that Mao has the edge. Her overall presentation of her programs are better. She has IT, and wonderful flow that makes her so appealing to watch. When she's clean, (meaning, lands 3axle) she will be very hard to top. Kimmie can be very consistent so that will work for her if Mao is not on, and she does have good elements that garner points under COP, if not as asthetically pleasing as others. Both will have pressure at Worlds-Kimmie the reigning WC and US National Champ, Mao the reigning Japanese National Champ plus the fact Worlds is in Japan. I kinda expect Mao to run away with it, she seems to thrive at home, much like Michelle did, while I think Kimmie will be safe, (well, maybe tentative is the better term since I do not see her abandoning 7 triples with 2 3/3s to be clean), aiming for a medal.

I'm thinking that with the focus being on the two of them, who will win?...Yu-Na and Miki (if both are healthy) can be huge threats to any spot on the podium.