2018-19 Russian Ladies' figure skating

[pearly]

I think it's great that Sofia is having the season she is having. I felt so sorry for her last year at JGP final, totally disregarded and all the focus Eteri's girls.

 

[vesperalvioletta]

I apologize if I misunderstood you.

As to Liza, I feel really bad for her, but in terms of who was the better choice for the team, there are a lot of ways to look at it, and I don’t think they all pointed strongly to Liza. She had a good early season but not a stellar one. In addition, according to the stats at SkatingScores.com, her success rate on 3A isn’t that great this year - out of 9 attempts, she got negative GOE on 6 of them. I see a lot of comments here that politics drove the decision. I have no idea if that’s true, but what is true is that in her most recent two comps, Liza still didn’t look in top form.

I understand and agree with your points. I know Liza isn't perfect either. I just wish she'd been able to go given all that she did in the fall. I suppose what I'm really upset about is that Russia can't have four spots so all of these amazing ladies have the opportunity to go. I would never want any one of them to fail or suffer so that another can take her spot. I just wish there was a way that they could all compete. Wishful thinking I suppose.

 

[[email protected]]

Evgenia scoring 220 at Worlds would be really high - considering her seasons best score internationally was 204.89 at ACI, which was like 6 months before Worlds.

She has improved a lot since then. 220 is realistic if she delivers to the plan.

 

[neusw]

Well this seems like a good way to lose 3 spots just in time for when you need it most. You have 2 unstable skaters having very up and down seasons, and one stable skater who will likely only place around ~7-10.

 

[Backload]

4th Group Adv.Novice - Jumps, Moscow Chmps 2019
(Daria Usachova, Sofia Samodelkina, Sofia Akatjeva, Kamila Valieva, Maya Khromykh, Anastasia Shabotova)
https://youtu.be/H-eNR5DgSMo

Hey, BossT, thanks for the videos! I know a lot of people here criticize you because they think you earn money with the videos, but I just checked your channel and I noticed that the videos aren't monetized. So, I wanted to thank you for your work and also appreciate your love for figure skating

 

[theharleyquinn]

Well this seems like a good way to lose 3 spots just in time for when you need it most. You have 2 unstable skaters having very up and down seasons, and one stable skater who will likely only place around ~7-10.

I'm baffled as to how you're confident Russia will lose three spots with this team. The two skaters being sent that are having up and down seasons are still unlikely to both finish below the top 6 because they will have the top 3-4 PCS of the event. By choosing both of them, this puts less pressure on Sofia, who can focus on finishing in the top 8.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

She has improved a lot since then. 220 is realistic if she delivers to the plan.

Also, she will skate her short in the final group, the only group which will be sheduled after the last ice resurfacing. Those skaters always get boost from the judges in points. And Liza would not be in that situation.

 

[theharleyquinn]

Also, she will skate her short in the final group, the only group which will be sheduled after the last ice resurfacing. Those skaters always get boost from the judges in points. And Liza would not be in that situation.

I said in the prediction thread, but I think skating order will play a huge role in how the podium plays out in the ladies event this year. This is why Rika went to Challenge Cup.

 

[neusw]

I'm baffled as to how you're confident Russia will lose three spots with this team. The two skaters being sent that are having up and down seasons are still unlikely to both finish below the top 6 because they will have the top 3-4 PCS of the event. By choosing both of them, this puts less pressure on Sofia, who can focus on finishing in the top 8.

Hmm let’s see, the two unstable skaters are about as likely to fall 2-3 times across the two programs as they are to skate clean. I can easily envision a scenario where all the Russians end up with scores in the 200-210 range. Not exactly confidence inspiring for a top 6 finish. I’m baffled by how you do not consider this within the realm of possibility.

 

[oatmella]

So the final group for ladies SP will be Alina, Evgenia, Kaori, Satoko, Bradie, and Elizabet.

Now that Evgenia will be competing, Rika no longer makes the final group.

correction: World Standings list is not updated yet, Rika should make the final group instead of Elizabet.

 

[Vandevska]

In the CR if she had not fallen on the combo she would have been totally OK. Her lutz edge in the free looked not that bad to me - she might get ! internationally but it is not a big deal. The big deal, if she is clean, is how her rotation will be judged. There has been an outcry of her URs but outside the combo I did not see big issues there as well. Yes, her GOE was atrocious and pcs inflated. With the clean combo she would have received about 230. I would discount it by 10-12 points. Hence, I believe that if she is on the upward trend and can skate 2 clean programs she will have 218-220 in Japan. It will be, may be, even enough to podium.

Thanks for the analysis!

 

[theharleyquinn]

Hmm let’s see, the two unstable skaters are about as likely to fall 2-3 times across the two programs as they are to skate clean. I can easily envision a scenario where all the Russians end up with scores in the 200-215 range. Not exactly confidence inspiring for a top 6 finish. I’m baffled by how you do not consider this within the realm of possibility.

You're saying this as if similar uncertainties don't apply to Bradie, Rika in the short, Elizabet, Satoko of there's a tough tech panel, and others who have also not been clean all season. We're not looking at Alina and Zhenya in a vacuum.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

I said in the prediction thread, but I think skating order will play a huge role in how the podium plays out in the ladies event this year. This is why Rika went to Challenge Cup.

Yes, it has been like that in every other sports competition and it will be here again. If those top 6 ranked skaters (Zagitova, Medvedeva, Sakamoto, Myahara, Tennel, Kihira) skate 'clean' their short they will finish in top 6 before the free. I have no doubt in that

 

[neusw]

You're saying this as if similar uncertainties don't apply to Bradie, Rika in the short, Elizabet, Satoko of there's a tough tech panel, and others who have also not been clean all season. We're not looking at Alina and Zhenya in a vacuum.

I’m saying that it’s a realistic possibility, not that it is guaranteed to happen. Of course I don’t know how others will do. The fact that you do not even consider this a possibility is being overly optimistic.

 

[sx98423]

So the final group for ladies SP will be Alina, Evgenia, Kaori, Satoko, Bradie, and Elizabet.

Now that Evgenia will be competing, Rika no longer makes the final group.

this makes the decision to leave liza off the team more understandable. i'm sure rusfed wants a win even if their highest scorers have been inconsistent they'll want to do everything they can to keep rika's PCs down

 

[theharleyquinn]

I’m saying that it’s a realistic possibility, not that it is guaranteed to happen. Of course I don’t know how others will do. The fact that you do not even consider this a possibility is being overly optimistic.

Of course it's a possibility. It could happen regardless of the team configuration with Liza or Zhenya. The fact that you were confident that it will happen is what I commented on.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

So the final group for ladies SP will be Alina, Evgenia, Kaori, Satoko, Bradie, and Elizabet.

Now that Evgenia will be competing, Rika no longer makes the final group.

Rika will surpas Elizabet by getting points from last weekend i think (if not, then decision of Russsian Fed to chose Zhenya is even more logical )

 

[hippomoomin]

Just realized Liza is off the team and Evgenia is chosen instead. It is a really bad decision because I don't really see Evgenia as a better skater than Liza at this moment, not jumps, not spins, not ss, not even performance, interpretation or transition. I would actually be happen to see Evgenia going if her problem is just jumps. Now if even she does not fall, her other marks should not score high and certainly not much GOE on her jumps.

 

[skylark]

So until yesterday the narrative was "Sofia and Alina are enough to keep the 3 spots" and today it's "Zhenya will make them lose the 3 spots11!!!11!!!!"??? I fail to believe most of you who say that you're concerned for her well-being if she doesn't do well. But thankfully she was shown love during the last 2 national competitions which obviously gave her confidence, and I hope she'll cling to it and not let anyone else get to her.
.

I agree with you that Zhenya will be able to take that love with her as she skates for Russia at Worlds.

Zhenya is an upward trend, but the important thing to me is how one interprets those results. What I see is a skater who's successfully incorporating so many changes in her skating. That took time. Some of those changes, like the style change represented by the Orange-Colored Sky SP, have been dropped. Thankfully! Also, her mental strength is what allowed her incredible rise in 2015-17. I don't think her mental strength has gone away. I'm sorry for Liza, of course; it's a tough sport. But I'm really happy for Zhenya and wish her, Sofia and Alina good skating at Worlds!

 

[Arbitrary]

I see the idea was to have two slots next WC.
To have a much better catfight between Tutberidze's girls.

As a positive moment for Tuktamisheva she will not be responsible for the total loss.