Who will be invited to 2019-20 GP series?

[Dreamer57]

Host countries’ picks are the lone exception to the traditional champion’s right to pick their assignments, so Nathan cannot take NHK over Yuzuru unless Hanyu and the JSF agree.

Ok, I wasn't sure about this, so thank you for correcting me!

I'll stick with the same predictions. If Yuzuru gets NHK then I find it unlikely that Shoma would be there too, therefore he would likely get the earlier events whilst having to avoid Boyang and Mikhail.

 

[SnowWhite]

For dance, we have:

1. Papadakis/Cizeron
2. Sinitsina/Katsalapov
3. Hubbell/Donohue
—
4. Stepanova/Bukin
5. Weaver/Poje
6. Chock/Bates

The top three is fairly easy, since they should get a host spot. I agree with Colonel Green that P/C will want NHK as their 2nd event. I think S/K will want SC over doing CoC to avoid back to back events with a 5 hour time difference, so we would have P/C with IdF and NHK, S/K with SC and CoR, and H/D with SA and CoC. If S/K do want to avoid SC like Ice Dance suggested, then doing SA and SC back to back would be fine for H/D, since they are on the same coast.

The next three are a bit harder. W/P will get SC, but I'm not sure if the other two will get their home events. The US fed doesn't need to save host spots for anyone, especially with Manta/Johnson not competing, so it's all about whether or not they want their top two to go up against each other. The Russian fed does have several teams who they might want to give host spots to (Shevchenko/Eremenko, Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov, Popova/Mozgov, Konkina/Drozd, etc.). I'm not really sure which way this will go. If I really had to guess, I'd say neither will be at home, but I'm not at all confident about that. If that is the case, it could be something like this:

SA: H/D, S/B
SC: S/K, W/P
IdF: P/C, C/B
CoC: H/D, S/B
CoR: S/K, C/B
NHK: P/C, W/P

For host picks:

SA depends on whether C/B end up here as well as H/D. If they don't, I think there's a good chance H/B are, with the 3rd spot going to one of McNamara/Carpenter or Carreira/Ponomarenko. I don't expect them to leave a spot TBD here, since there isn't really a team outside the top 5 from Nationals (who should get 2 spots either way) that I think would get it.

For SC, W/P will be here and I think G/P will not. I expect Lajoie/Lagha to get one of the other two spots. The third could be Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen. If not FB/S, then likely either Soucisse/Firus or Sales/Wamsteeker. There are a could junior teams moving up they could consider, but I don't think it's that likely. Like SA, I think this probably won't be left TBD.

For IdF, P/C will be there of course, and I think Galyavieva/Thauron will be too. For the last spot, they could either go with Lauriault/Le Gac, or save it for a team who wouldn't get any spots otherwise, like Wagret/Souquet or Lopareva/Brissaud.

For CoC, I'm expecting the three teams from 4CCs will all get a spot, so Wang/Liu, Chen/Sun and Ning/Wang.

For CoR, other than S/K I'm really not sure what they'll do. They could have S/B there, or if they aren't Z/G could be. Or neither of them. And as I mentioned earlier, there are several candidates for the host spots here. They have two JW medalists moving up to seniors, with Shevchenko/Eremenko guaranteed one spot via WS and Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov guaranteed nothing. They have the 4th place team from Nationals Popova/Mozgov guaranteed nothing. They have teams like Evdokimova/Bazin and Skoptcova Aleshin guaranteed one spot, but both near the bottom of the top 24 SB (20/22), so not sure to get two without help. They have a new team in Konkina/Drozd who looked at least somewhat promising in their debut, and will have been together for longer by then (and of course he's very talented). And there's always Morozov/Bagin . I'm not even mentioning Shpilevaya/Smirnov, because if they chose M/B over them last year, they likely won't get a spot with so many teams in the mix.

For NHK, it should be just Komatsubara/Koleto.

 

[SnowWhite]

For men, we have:

1. Nathan Chen
2. Yuzuru Hanyu
3. Vincent Zhou
—
4. Shoma Uno
5. Boyang Jin
6. Mikhail Kolyada

Here Nathan should get SA and Yuzuru should get NHK. I assume that Nathan would prefer NHK if he could have it, since it would fit his school schedule (that of course assumes he's back at Yale next year, which we don't know for sure). But host picks come first. If they did want to honour his wishes, it could be him and Shoma there, with Hanyu elsewhere, but I'm not expecting that. So then the question is, what would Nathan want for his 2nd event (working from the assumption that he's at Yale again)? He could do SC to get it over with, but since both it and SA are on the West coast, it wouldn't make sense for him to go back to school at all, so that would likely mean missing a full week of school. So, probably any of the others except for NHK.

Not knowing what Nathan would want for his 2nd makes it a bit hard to predict the rest, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Hanyu at SC. Unless Nathan picks CoC, Vincent could end up with a challenging back to back on different continents and a big time change (IdF to CoC is a 7 hour difference, and CoC to CoR is a 5 hour difference).

For the 2nd group, if Hanyu is at NHK, I wouldn't expect Shoma to be. Boyang and Mikhail should both get their home events. So then I'd expect Shoma to do either SA/SC back to back (same time zone), or SA and IdF. Boyang at NHK would make sense, since it's the same continent and skaters generally like NHK. Then Mikhail would have either SC or IdF, depending on what Shoma wanted.

For host picks:

At SA, Nathan will be there of course, and I think it's likely that Tomoki Hiwatashi will get a spot as the JW champ. The third spot could be used to get Camden Pulkinen or Alex Krasnozhon a 2nd spot (both are guaranteed one from WS). With Tim Dolensky not competing, there's no one else currently in the International Selection Pool who'd make sense, but if they leave it TBD someone could prove themselves in summer. I think Camden and Alex K will be first priority though, so it depends on whether they can get 2nd events without a host pick. I don't think Alex is that likely to, but Camden might since his SB is higher.

At SC, I expect Nam to get a spot as the national champion. They could have Keegan too, but there are several guys who could use a host pick, so it might be better not to. If he goes senior, I think that Conrad Orzel will get a spot based on his nationals result (especially since Joseph Phan seems to be staying Jr). If there is a spot left after that, or if Conrad stays junior, it would probably come down to Nicolas Nadeau or Roman Sadovsky. They could leave that TBD and decide based on summer results.

At IdF, we should see Kevin Aymoz, Romain Ponsart and Adam Him Siao Fa if he goes senior. If he stays junior, then it could go to someone else like Adrien Tesson, or they could not use the spot. Which the French fed has certainly done before.

At CoC, we'll have Boyang, probably Han Yan and maybe a third guy like He Zhang. They could also only use 2 spots.

At CoR, we'll have Mikhail, and then I'm not sure. Lazukin is guaranteed two spots already, and Aliev and Voronov have good enough SB scores to very likely get 2, so they could have one of those guys (probably Andrei or Dmitri), but none of them need it. I expect Roman Savosin will probably be there as a JW medalist with only one spot from WS guaranteed. Then if they didn't give a spot to Andrei/Dima/Sergei, there's one left and several options. I see them leaving this TBD at first. There's Konstantin Milyukov and Alexander Petrov (6/7th at Nats), Alexey Erokhov who isn't guaranteed anything, and others.

At NHK, I'm expecting Hanyu of course. Then maybe Koshiro Shimada and Sota Yamamoto, unless they want to give a spot to Keiji or Kazuki. In that case, they'd choose between Koshiro and Sota. There are other possibilities, but Koshiro was 4th at Nats and has said he'm going senior, and Sota killed it at Challenge Cup. And neither is likely to get assignments on their own, so they seem most likely to me.

 

[lariko]

Messing not being at SC will be a crushing disappointment

 

[skatenewbie]

At CoC, we'll have Boyang, probably Han Yan and maybe a third guy like He Zhang. They could also only use 2 spots.

Han Yan is already retired though? Also im sure IdF will give a spot to Adam Siao, he's unlikely getting GP by his placement only, meanwhile Romain could get 1 invite by his own because his SB is not far off top 24. He'll probably do GP + Euros but JWC since WC is for Aymoz

 

[Colonel Green]

Han Yan is already retired though?

No, he’s announced he’s coming back.

 

[SnowWhite]

Han Yan is already retired though? Also im sure IdF will give a spot to Adam Siao, he's unlikely getting GP by his placement only, meanwhile Romain could get 1 invite by his own because his SB is not far off top 24. He'll probably do GP + Euros but JWC since WC is for Aymoz

I'm guessing Adam will move up, but it is possible that he could decide to do juniors and get 2 JGPs + maybe JGPF instead of just one GP, and then also do CS events.

- - - Updated - - -

Messing not being at SC will be a crushing disappointment

They could take Keegan rather than Nam, or both as I said, but I'm guessing that National champion is most likely to get the spot.

 

[elektra blue]

for NHK host spot there's also Daisuke Murakami to consider, he said he would have done some international competitions next season, but it was unclear wich one he was talking about

 

[SnowWhite]

for NHK host spot there's also Daisuke Murakami to consider, he said he would have done some international competitions next season, but it was unclear wich one he was talking about

Do you mean Daisuke Takahashi? Because I'm pretty sure Murakami is still retired.

If you do mean Takahashi, he's made it clear that he's not interested in doing the GP series next season.

 

[Colonel Green]

At SC, I expect Nam to get a spot as the national champion. They could have Keegan too, but there are several guys who could use a host pick, so it might be better not to. If he goes senior, I think that Conrad Orzel will get a spot based on his nationals result (especially since Joseph Phan seems to be staying Jr). If there is a spot left after that, or if Conrad stays junior, it would probably come down to Nicolas Nadeau or Roman Sadovsky. They could leave that TBD and decide based on summer results.

Messing not being at SC will be a crushing disappointment

They could take Keegan rather than Nam, or both as I said, but I'm guessing that National champion is most likely to get the spot.

My guess is that Skate Canada has both Keegan and Nam at SCI and the third spot goes to whoever does best at summer competitions. Skate Canada will want to have the big-name Canadian skaters at SCI, as much as possible.

 

[SnowWhite]

My guess is that Skate Canada has both Keegan and Nam at SCI and the third spot goes to whoever does best at summer competitions. Skate Canada will want to have the big-name Canadian skaters at SCI, as much as possible.

That might mean only Nam and Keegan and one other guy end up with any GP spots though, which Skate Canada wouldn't be happy with either. Like in 2017, Kaetlyn was at SC and Gabby wasn't. So I'm not sure what SC will do.

 

[Ice Dance]

My guess is that Nam will do SC and Keegan will do SA.

 

[Colonel Green]

Like in 2017, Kaetlyn was at SC and Gabby wasn't.

But there they were in the same seeding bracket, so they couldn't attend the same event.

I'd agree that Skate Canada would ideally like both, but notwithstanding that Nam is national champion, Keegan is the most successful Canadian man internationally at the moment, and won a medal at Skate Canada last season. I think they'd rate putting their best foot forward for the home crowd ahead of a single extra Grand Prix assignment for one other guy with less profile.

 

[Koatterce]

That might mean only Nam and Keegan and one other guy end up with any GP spots though, which Skate Canada wouldn't be happy with either. Like in 2017, Kaetlyn was at SC and Gabby wasn't. So I'm not sure what SC will do.

But there they were in the same seeding bracket, so they couldn't attend the same event.

I'd agree that Skate Canada would ideally like both, but notwithstanding that Nam is national champion, Keegan is the most successful Canadian man internationally at the moment, and won a medal at Skate Canada last season. I think they'd rate putting their best foot forward for the home crowd ahead of a single extra Grand Prix assignment for one other guy with less profile.

Last year Skate Canada had both Keegan and Nam at SC, wouldn't be surprised if they did it again. Especially since other men have a good chance to get their own spots so leaving a second host pick open is probably not necessary.

Roman (SB #25) and Nicolas (SB#33) should be able to get one non-host spot, and a very good chance for a second (at least as a substitute). And Skate Canada can probably politick/make a deal for them to get a second one if they need to. But if either of them don't get a second assignment, they're strong candidates for the host spot.

Conrad, if he moves up (has he said anything about it yet?), has a small chance at a spot even if it's only as a substitute (SB #48). He'd also be a strong candidate for the host spot especially since it's a toss up whether or not he'll get a spot off the bat.

 

[SnowWhite]

Last year Skate Canada had both Keegan and Nam at SC, wouldn't be surprised if they did it again. Especially since other men have a good chance to get their own spots so leaving a second host pick open is probably not necessary.

Roman (SB #25) and Nicolas (SB#33) should be able to get one non-host spot, and a very good chance for a second (at least as a substitute). And Skate Canada can probably politick/make a deal for them to get a second one if they need to. But if either of them don't get a second assignment, they're strong candidates for the host spot.

Conrad, if he moves up (has he said anything about it yet?), has a small chance at a spot even if it's only as a substitute (SB #48). He'd also be a strong candidate for the host spot especially since it's a toss up whether or not he'll get a spot off the bat.

But last year, Nam got the TBD host pick because he only got one spot on his own, so it's not the same case this year. Nam was SB 28 last year. They did not initially pick him for Skate Canada, even though he was the 2nd ranked man left from Nationals. They took 1st (Keegan) and 3rd senior left (Roman), and a TBD.

We could get both Keegan and Nam at SC for sure. But it would be different than last year.

 

[Koatterce]

But last year, Nam got the TBD host pick because he only got one spot on his own, so it's not the same case this year. Nam was SB 28 last year. They did not initially pick him for Skate Canada, even though he was the 2nd ranked man left from Nationals. They took 1st (Keegan) and 3rd senior left (Roman), and a TBD.

We could get both Keegan and Nam at SC for sure. But it would be different than last year.

That's true, but it was also because Roman was SB 73 so had no chance to get a spot on his own, so he needed the host spot if he was going to get a GP. This year, all the guys except maybe Conrad (if he moves up) can get their own spot and are strong candidates for substitute spots (if they only get 1 from the start), so they might end up with two anyways.
So if Skate Canada wants to have both Keegan and Nam, they could definitely afford to use two host spots and save the third for whoever does well in the summer/doesn't get two GPs

 

[elektra blue]

Do you mean Daisuke Takahashi? Because I'm pretty sure Murakami is still retired.

If you do mean Takahashi, he's made it clear that he's not interested in doing the GP series next season.

of course i meant Takahashi, i'm getting old and starting cofusing names

 

[nussnacker]

I find it strange/sad that Young You isn’t guaranteed even a single Grand Prix assignment. And it doesn’t look like she’s going to get invited as a host pick either. It’s understandable, but it seemed like she is a promising junior that would get two no matter what. There was always so much hype and buzz around her since she was 11, being the Korean darling and getting called the next Yuna, all those training videos of 3A and quads... and it’s sad that her senior debut isn’t going to happen as a big break out season.
I guess she’ll have to earn it like Yelim did this year, props to Yelim, she had a great season!

 

[chuckm]

Since Korea doesn't host a GP event, of course Young You won't get a host pick! But I wouldn't assume she won't get any GP events. She could easily pick up an event as a substitute: she is 34th on the SB list, which puts her fairly high on the substitute list.

 

[Ziotic]

Since Korea doesn't host a GP event, of course Young You won't get a host pick! But I wouldn't assume she won't get any GP events. She could easily pick up an event as a substitute: she is 34th on the SB list, which puts her fairly high on the substitute list.

Are we sure she’ll go senior?

She may actually have a great shot at GPF medal this year with the strong Russians moving up.