Who will be invited to 2019-20 GP series?

NaVi · Apr 9, 2019

Osmond and Kostner are doing a show tour during the Grand Prix season so you can mark them out.

http://rocktherink.com/

Andrea82 · Apr 13, 2019

Some new SBs earned at World Team Trophy (Zhou, Rizzo, Tanaka, Nguyen, Lazukin, Tuktamysheva, Tennell, Sakamato, Piredda, James/Cipres, Papadakis/Cizeron, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, Guignard/Fabbri, Komatsubara/Koleto).
However, the only one that can have an impact on GP assignments is Marina Piredda getting in at #39 of SB list. She should put her in contention for one of the last invites

Jammers · Apr 13, 2019

Kostner is done i would think. She's 32 and we know as a person ages the injuries start to pile up and no way can she keep up with these jumping beans even with the outrageous PCS she gets no matter how she skates. As for Osmond i think she has at least a couple of more years left in her. Sure she has nothing more to prove but she really hasn't been around that long when you look at all the time she missed with injuries and i'd like to see her come back at least for one more season.

chuckm · Apr 13, 2019

Doesn't look as if Osmond is coming back. Skate Canada recently issued a rule that if a skater wants to be on the World Team (i.e. go to Worlds), that skater must skate the entire season. Since Osmond is doing the V/M tour, she obviously won't be at 2020 Worlds in Montreal. Sure, she could wait for a return in 2020-2021 to prepare for Beijing, but that seems unlikely. It's hard to get back in competition shape at 25 after a two-year absence, especially when the technical bar has been raised much higher in those intervening years.

DSQ · Apr 13, 2019

Jammers said:
Kostner is done i would think. She's 32 and we know as a person ages the injuries start to pile up and no way can she keep up with these jumping beans even with the outrageous PCS she gets no matter how she skates. As for Osmond i think she has at least a couple of more years left in her. Sure she has nothing more to prove but she really hasn't been around that long when you look at all the time she missed with injuries and i'd like to see her come back at least for one more season.

People have been saying that about Kostner for ages though. Until she says she’s retired I’ll assume she’ll be skating next season. I admire her for showing the younger skaters that you can keep going if you want to and be successful.

yume · Apr 13, 2019

Not just if you want to in some countries but yes it's a good thing to be able to skate at this age.

Nirti · Apr 16, 2019

Could Hanna Abrazhevich & Martin Bidar be eligible under the "Return of a Split Couple - “Returning Split Couple” " rule?

"Pairs or Dance Couples, who were previously in the top 7 to 12 of an ISU World Figure Skating
Championships in the past two seasons but who split and now have a new partner,
may always be chosen as an Organizing ISU Member Skater [...]"

Martin Bidar ranked #11 with Duskova at 2018 Worlds, but finished #18 with Abrazhevich at 2019 Worlds.

Miller · Apr 16, 2019

Andrea82 said:
Some new SBs earned at World Team Trophy (Zhou, Rizzo, Tanaka, Nguyen, Lazukin, Tuktamysheva, Tennell, Sakamato, Piredda, James/Cipres, Papadakis/Cizeron, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, Guignard/Fabbri, Komatsubara/Koleto).
However, the only one that can have an impact on GP assignments is Marina Piredda getting in at #39 of SB list. She should put her in contention for one of the last invites

I’ve got Marina in with 2 or 3 spots to spare – cut-off is Yi Christy Leung with Seasons Best 177 assuming invites are in Seasons Best order after taking account of guaranteed picks etc. etc.

With Kaetlyn Osmond/Carolina Kostner doing shows later in the year there’s 3 spots up for grabs by my calculations and I’ve got them going to Marina, Courtney Hicks, though she’s been bypassed this last couple of years despite having a Seasons Best high enough, and Yi Christy.

Also I don’t know what’s going on with Ashley Lin. Her SB is plenty high enough for an invite, but she’s not on the USFS’s International Selection List, and withdrew from US Nationals with no reason being given, AFAIK, and I’ve even seen speculation she might switch to skating for China. I’ll leave her in for the time being but there’s plenty of scope for invitations to be extended to Hanna Harrell and Starr Andrews rather than her/Courtney Hicks, plus also scope for ‘you scratch my back, and I’ll scratch yours’ for Canadian and US skaters who are only just missing out with Seasons Bests in the low to mid 170s.

Updated prediction after WTT/end of season.

Russia (18 spots) - Zagitova, Medvedeva, Samodurova all guaranteed 2. I then guess Tuktamysheva, Trusova, Shcherbakova and Kostornaia 2 each, with the 4 remaining spots split between the other 5 ‘guaranteed’ skaters i.e. Sakhanovich, Tarusina, Gubanova, Konstantinova and Sotskova.

Elena Radionova would also qualify for ‘priority consideration’ for 2 spots under the Comeback skater rule, but it looks as if Anna Pogorilaya may be forced to retire/already has done so because of her back problems - she would also qualify as a Comeback skater if she was capable of doing so.

Japan (17 spots) - Kihira, Sakamoto, Miyahara, Mihara, Yamashita, Shiraiwa and Higuchi all 2, Honda and Yokoi 1 spot each, 1 Host Pick.

USA (10 spots) – Tennell, Bell, Cui 2, Lin, Hicks 1, Host Picks 2. Karen Chen won’t qualify as a Comeback skater AFAIK because of her aborted outing at a late season Challenger (she withdrew after the SP), but if so she would qualify for 2 spots.

Korea (6 spots) - Lim, Kim 2, You, Choi (as Return skater) 1.

Canada (4 spots) – Daleman 2, Host Picks 2. Could be 3 Host Picks if Gabby skates both her events abroad, and they want to maximise the opportunities for up and coming skaters like Aurora Cotop and Alison Schumacher.

France (5 spots) – Lecavalier, Meite 2, Host Pick 1 (Anna Kuzmenko? Lea Serna?)

Kazakhstan (2 spots) – Tursynbaeva 2

Belgium (2 spots) – Hendrickx 2

Finland (2 spots) – Lindfors 2

Switzerland (2 spots) – Paganini 2

China (1 spot) – Host Pick 1 (Hongyi Chen)

Italy (1 spot) – Piredda 1

Azerbaijan (1 spot) – Ryabova 1

Hong Kong (1 spot) – Leung 1 (last one in)

Just missing out, but next in line if non-returning skaters, injuries etc. – Harrell, Araki (18th Japanese spot), (Yoshioka, Sumiyoshi), Andrews, (Kawabata), Chartrand, Peltonen, Mallet, Schott, Arkhipova, Wessenberg, Rajicova, Craine.

Miller · Apr 16, 2019

Nirti said:
Could Hanna Abrazhevich & Martin Bidar be eligible under the "Return of a Split Couple - “Returning Split Couple” " rule?

"Pairs or Dance Couples, who were previously in the top 7 to 12 of an ISU World Figure Skating
Championships in the past two seasons but who split and now have a new partner,
may always be chosen as an Organizing ISU Member Skater [...]"

Martin Bidar ranked #11 with Duskova at 2018 Worlds, but finished #18 with Abrazhevich at 2019 Worlds.

Good question. I would have thought the Return Split rule would only tend to apply when a couple is ready to skate internationally rather than when they’ve already competed for a year. Also their Seasons Best of 140 is very low for an invite, the next lowest would be 157 for Audrey Lu/Misha Mitrofanov and that would be for a couple guaranteed a spot via their World Standing, so I would have thought it unlikely they’d get an invite, but you never know.

Re other couples there’s been a number of splits/retirements since the World Championships, and taking account of these and juniors where it looks as if they’re not moving up, my updated predictions are -

Russia (12 spots) – Tarasova/Morozov, Zabiako/Enbert, Boikova/Kozlovskii, Mishina/Galliamov, Pavliuchenko/Khodykin 2, Efimova/Korovin 1, Host Pick 1. Assume Kostiukovich/Ialin, Panfilova/Rylov and Akhanteva/Kolesov all stay in juniors.

USA (11 spots) – Cain/LeDuc, Kayne/O’Shea, Scimeca-Knierim/Knierim, Denney/Frazier 2, Calalang/Johnson, Lu Mitrofanov 1, Host Picks 1

China (7 spots) – Sui/Han, Peng/Jin, Yu/Zhang 2, Host Picks 1 (Tang/Yang?)

Canada (5 spots) – Moore-Towers/Marinaro 2, Walsh/Michaud 1, Host Picks 2, including Ilyushechkina/Bilodeau

France (3 spots) – James/Cipres 2, Host Pick 1 (Hamon/Strekalin?)

Italy (2 spots) – Della Monica/Guarise 2

Austria (2 spots) – Ziegler/Kiefer 2

North Korea (2 spots) – Ryom/Kim 2

Germany (1 spots) – Hase/Seegert 1

Japan (1 spot) – Host Pick 1 (Miura/Ichihashi)

Australia (1 spot) – Alexandrovskaya/Windsor 1

Spain (1 spot) – Barquero/Maestu 1

Next in line if non-returning skaters, further splits etc. – Efimova/Korovin, Hase/Seegert, Walsh/Michaud, Calalang/Johnson, Tang/Yang, Alexandrovskaya/Windsor, Ruest/Wolfe.

Miller · Apr 16, 2019

Updated prediction for Ice Dance following everyone’s comments, other recent news re retirements etc. N.B. Men’s on page 2 is still the same.

Russia (15 spots) – Sinitsina/Katsalapov, Stepanova/Bukin, Zagorski/Guerreiro, Skoptcova/Aleshin, Evdokimova/Bazin, Shevchenko/Eremenko 2, Khubaiberdieva/Nazarov, Popova/Mozgov 1, Host Pick 1.

USA (11 spots) – Hubbell/Donohoe, Chock/Bates, Hawayek/Baker, McNamara/Carpenter, Carreira/Ponamarenko 2, Host Pick 1

Canada (11 spots) – Weaver/Poje, Gilles/Poirier, Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen, Lajoie/Lagha, Soucisse/Firus 2, Host Pick 1

France (5 spots) – Papadakis/Cizeron, Lauriault/Le Gac 2, Host Pick 1 (Galyavieva/Thauron), may be 2 – 3 other couples in 140's Seasons Best-wise.

Spain (4 spots) – Hurtado/Khaliavin, Smart/Diaz 2

China (4 spots) – Wang/Liu 2, Host Picks 2 (Chen/Sun, Ning/Wang)

Italy (2 spots) – Guignard/Fabbri 2

Poland (2 spots) – Kaliszek/Spodyriev 2

Great Britain (2 spots) – Fear/Gibson 2

Japan (2 spots) – Komatsubara/Koleto 2 (1 via Host Pick, other via W/S)

Finland (1 spot) – Turkkila/Versluis 1

Lithuania (1 spot) - Reed/Ambrulevicius 1

Next in line – Galyavieva/Thauron, Shpilevaya/Smirnov, Koch/Nuechtern, Tessari/Fioretti, Tweedale/Buckland, Yanovskaya/Lukacs, Mueller/Dieck, Chen/Sun

lichi · Apr 16, 2019

Miller said:
China (7 spots) – Sui/Han, Peng/Jin, Yu/Zhang 2, Host Picks 1 (Tang/Yang?)

Who knows what's happening to Yu/Zhang? There's a possibility for Wang/Wang over Tang/Yang. They haven't been in the international circuit for a while, but they did compete at Nationals, and got silver over Tang/Yang.

Colonel Green · Apr 16, 2019

Miller said:
Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov remain as juniors.

They (well, he) aged out of juniors.

Miller · Apr 16, 2019

Colonel Green said:
They (well, he) aged out of juniors.

Thanks. Completely missed that, plus 2 people said it also. They should be fine for an invite, at least as SB#26, with Galyavieva/Thauron (SB#31) moving to next in line - though as said they have certain political advantages. Also Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov could end up with 2 anyway because of being World Junior runners-up. Will have to see. Will edit Ice Dance prediction to give 1 spot and see what happens with the second.

markovai · Apr 16, 2019

alinaharry said:
Does anyone know when they will drop the 2016/2017 WS points? I’d be interested to see if and how it changes WS.

Obviously it will change significantly the standings. All the lists published here are based on current standings, but once the 2016-17 season results are deleted and the 17-18 are changed to 70%, many of your predictions will have to be changed.

Ziotic · Apr 16, 2019

For Canada I/B quality for spots as Lubov and Dylan were top 6 at their last worlds showing.

Canada may choose to invite them but they will qualify otherwise and likely for 2 spots.

Miller · Apr 17, 2019

markovai said:
Obviously it will change significantly the standings. All the lists published here are based on current standings, but once the 2016-17 season results are deleted and the 17-18 are changed to 70%, many of your predictions will have to be changed.

All predictions are based on the projected world standings after the 2016-17 results are dropped. A number of people here and elsewhere have already worked them out.

Ziotic said:
For Canada I/B quality for spots as Lubov and Dylan were top 6 at their last worlds showing.

Canada may choose to invite them but they will qualify otherwise and likely for 2 spots.

I'm not sure Liubov and Charlie qualify for 2 spots. I get them to be a year too late to qualify as Return Split skaters, plus Comeback skaters seem to be all about the same couple returning e.g. Aljona Savchenko and Bruno Massot didn't do GPs the first year they skated together. It is possible there is an entirely equivalent example out there in which case they'll get 2 spots, but I think they may be limited to just the Host Pick, which should be OK - get the TES minimums early next season and everything else is 'should's' rather than 'musts' when it comes to things like Seasons Bests.

chuckm · Apr 17, 2019

I've put together lists of skaters with guarantees based on the World Standings list after the purge. Note that although JW medalists sometimes receive GP invitations, the GP document no longer includes them as guaranteed an event. So I haven't included them unless they fall into the guaranteed category because of World Standing or SB.

The first column is World Standing; the second is position on the SB list. (*) indicates skaters/teams finishing top 10/12 at Worlds. I've also included names on the top 24 lists of those who are no longer competing or who will remain junior, along with a note of status. The juniors will remain on the list, but the retired skaters or split couples could possibly be removed from the list if the federation requests it.

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[TD="width: 151"] Nathan CHEN*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Shoma UNO*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Mikhail KOLYADA*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Yuzuru HANYU*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Jason BROWN*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Vincent ZHOU*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Alexander SAMARIN*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Matteo RIZZO*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Keegan MESSING[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Michal BREZINA*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Boyang JIN*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Deniss VASILJEVS[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Morisi KVETLASHVILI[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Junhwan CHA[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Sergei VORONOV[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Javier FERNANDEZ (retired)[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Dmitri ALIEV[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Daniel GRASSL[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Keiji TANAKA[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Kazuki TOMONO[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Alexei KRASNOZHON[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Alexei BYCHENKO[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Roman SAVOSIN[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Camden PULKINEN[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Nam NGUYEN[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Tomoki HIWATASHI[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Andrei LAZUKIN*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Kevin AYMOZ*[/TD]
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[TD="width: 151"] Maxim KOVTUN[/TD]
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LADIES
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