Anyway! I think they've made the GPF, but I'm not sure?
It depends on what happens at NHK next week. They need M/G to beat M-T/M for second. That would put them in a tiebreaker with M-T/M, then T/M would need a higher overall score to win the tiebreak and make it in. M-T/M need to score 210. something, which is pretty doable for them though. If M-T/M are second again, T/M are out. Worlds are in Canada this season, and Canada is going to be pushing M-T/M for the GPF to set them up to try to get them on the podium at worlds. I'm going to be surprised if T/M make it in.
I'm a little puzzled as to why this quad would be written off?
We've not even seen GPF or nationals yet.
As I said above, I'm going to be surprised if T/M make the GPF. There's an outside shot depending on how things go at NHK, but I'm not holding my breath. I don't think GPF is going to be a thing T/M do this season.
I think they're just in too big of a hole to dig themselves out of right now, both nationally and internationally. Historically, no pairs team that competed in to GP events and failed to make the GPF has ever gone on to medal at worlds in that season in a non-Olympic. That's a lot of data points going back to when it first started as the champions series finale. So, odds are high that they're also going to fall off the world podium this season all together.
I took a look at some Russian coverage of the event, and they're saying in the press that B/K can challenge S/H for the GPF title, etc. So, it's clear who they now consider number 1 and whom they'll be backing. I can tell you right now who is going to win Russian nationals, and it's not going to be T/M.
Olympics are in China in 2022. S/H are incredible in their own right, but T/M also want to be world and Olympic champions and they have the talent for it. Momentum is important. I think if T/M wanted a chance in 2022, they needed to come in with at least one world title. I admit to partially basing this off ice dance, but it seemed like to me it needed to happen this season.
T/M have two hills to climb now--back to Russian #1, which is unlikely to happen this season. Then, back to the big podiums internationally. It's going to take a lot of time to build momentum back up. That's why I say this quad is a write off. This season is shot. Next season is the pre-Olympic season. I think maybe it's more realistic to start looking into the next quad if they still want to try to win worlds and the Olympics.
Sure I question the move to Zueva...if it was to improve components then I would have considered Lambiel or one of the ice dancing coaches in Russia.
I do agree that they have the talent to be champions! Indeed Raf seems to be the best person for jumps at the moment. We'll have to wait and see what they do next.
I think all the little mistakes are largely down to mindset and handling pressure. They're getting there.
I had wanted them to go to Marina for choreography months before they even announced the move. I just question them being coached full-time by an ice dance coach. You are very right that there were options among Russia's ice dance coaches if they wanted to work on those aspects--Zhulin, S/B's coaches, Angelika Krylova is there now.
Mozer does not want to coach full-time. Max had had no coaching experience and didn't feel like he could do it. They have to have a coach. Just watching how this season has been playing out for T/M and how it looks like it's going to go for the rest of it, it just doesn't seem to be working. The last time a favorite of mine made a coaching change, it was when Hubbell/Donohue went to Montreal. They went from barely making top 10 at worlds, barely making worlds to begin with in 2015, etc. to making the GPF in basically the first 6 months of being with D/L. I don't buy that there has to be some sort of regression in a coaching change. It's hard to watch T/M struggling so much and falling behind. Marina's camp is an ice dance camp, and I just feel like they technically need someone who coaches pairs on a full time basis.
I feel like those two were outliers, I mean pairs teams are usually older than single skaters sure, but not by that much. I still feel like 2018 was the best time for them and so many hoped they wouldn't win just because they didn't like their music.
And they didn't even make podium at all and it was so sad.
My heart broke for them in 2018. I wish they'd managed to at least hang on to bronze.
I thought this quad was going to be their quad. When they first moved up to seniors, they were the hope for 2022. It's what they were touted for. Then, things went the way they did and the ended up being Russia 1 early, before they were ready to handle that pressure. Now, I feel like everyone but a handful of us wants them out of the way, going off what other people are saying, social media, comments in the Russian press. It's like they haven't gotten their time to shine yet.
Unfortunately (or fortunately?) quads aren't valued highly enough it pairs for that to mean much unless they can do it perfectly.
It's that if the quads aren't clean, they lose so much value that it's not worth it unless the team can do it perfectly. If they could get it clean, that's a lot of base value points. Just looking at what the other teams can do, I do think that T/M are going to need to upgrade their base value. They're not going to be out there doing sbs flips or lutzes. They tried the throw flip last year and took it out. I feel like getting the quad twist cleaned up is within reach, and I think they get enough height on the throw loop and salchow that she could get the fourth rotation in there. To me, those just look like the upgrades that would be most in reach for them, and if they could get them, a lot of points there to be had that would be hard for the others to go after
Which is another thing that worried me, they didn't seem as sharp as usual in this FS. I hope that it was a one off, their technical persision is one of the best things about them.
And that is why I think they need a full-time pairs technical coach. It's not just this competition. It's been every competition they've been at this year. Ice dance is not the same as pairs and I think they clearly need someone who does pairs technique with them all the time. They have fabulous skills, but they have to maintain that.
I know I'm very down about all of this, but this is the first pairs team I've ubered since Brasseur/Eisler were competing, and it makes me so sad to see them struggling when they have all the goods to win and it feels like everything is going wrong for them this season.
, the music, the lifts (all went smoothly today!), Vovan being back in form! Zhenya was smiley in the KnC. 
