2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Mishaminion]

Shcherbakova seems to perform her best just when people start counting her out. I wouldn’t be surprised if she wins nationals again even if Sasha and Aliona beat her at the finals. Just a feeling I have

Then again, I had somehow convinced myself that Sasha was going to try a quad flip this weekend, which didn’t happen, so who knows.

I do not understand those who count Anna out, knowing she beat everyone at senior Nats last year. She could do it again, just as easily even. Her quad consistency is so much better now too. If Sasha does not hit all of hers and Anna nails both of hers...it is much much closer.
Alyona, if clean with her 3As could spoil the quad party too.

 

[nussnacker]

The state of Russian senior ladies before the Rusnats

1. Alexandra Trusova is one and only
2. Alena Kostornaya has to land triple axels in Japan, then she will be also above the clouds.

Those two skaters should be gold and silver at Rusnats. Injuries aside it will be the most outrageous thing if they are not in the team based both on the body of work and their scores this season.

3. - 5. Anna Scherbakova
3. - 5. Alina Zagitova
3. - 5. Evgenija Medvedeva

Here lies the key drama of the season. One out of three will be in the worlds team. If all three are clean Evgenija is surely the weakest link: Anna's quads will outweigh her lack of pcs, and Alina's TES is higher with similar pcs. However, nerves will be strained to the limit - I would argue that Rusnats this time will be the strongest competition in the history of this event. GPF with Rika could rival it. However, there are just 6 skaters there with no Zhenya and Liza.

6. Liza Tuktamysheva

International panels made a statement that she cannot expect the same scores that she received last season while #3 - 5 are still in the game. I am sure that she will be held domestically as well in order to not make a difficult choice a total nightmare. One big situation will be if she lands 3 triple axels and the rest of her stuff and 4 out of 5 above stated skaters have really bad days (like all senior ladies had at last Rusnats). If Liza wins silver that will be truly a twist in this year drama.

Everybody else

Ksenia Tsibinova is on the rise. It is interesting how she will perform vs. other more familiar names and another Ksenia: Sinitsina

Gubanova, Tarakanova, Sakhanovich, Samodurova - it is always interesting to watch them skate. May be some of them or even all of them will shine. It will change little team wise but it may make a splash with long lasting effects.

Sotskova, Konstantinova - a farewell? Or some miracle will happen?

Talking about Nationals, people (not you samkrut) keep forgetting Ksenia Sinitsyna.
My hopes are she's going to place somewhere high and really cause some stir. :yes:

 

[[email protected]]

Thanks for the analysis.

Don't you think that Shcherbakova can rise to the level of the top two? Looking past this year, I think the future belongs to whomever can bring the quads and a triple Axel.

The Fed cannot disregard the messages that she was sent. 5 edge calls to Anna in one competition, very dubious short program results, etc. She does not have 2 more different types of quads should she fall on her lutz, etc. Alyona is much safer - she "has been accepted". Once again, if Anna with the nerves of steel lands 2 quads and Russia will send the message that "we do not see wrong edges" it is possible that she will outrun Alyona score wise during the Rusnats if Alyona makes a mistake. Samarin received 21 points for his 4Lz-3T. Even without those exorbitant GOE she can receive more than 30 points on her first 2 jumping passes and more than 90 TES overall with something like 75+160=235 total score. Clean Alyona will score above 240, though.

Overall, I see 3 possible team configurations with the reducing probability:

1) 3A

2) Trusova, Kostornaya, Zagitova

3) Trusova, Kostornaya, Medvedeva

It will depend on NHK results, though. If for some reason Alyona has a meltdown there we shall either have a big "chess game" or those who make the decisions will just relax and say: "all our top girls are wonderful. Let's judge them objectively at Rusnats. Whoever manage to show 2 best performances will be in the team. And as for the third spot, we shall take the decision later."

The funniest (or most dramatic) thing will be if we had once again the last year farce with Zagitova, Medvedeva, and Scherbakova competing against one another at the Cup of Russia for that third spot.

 

[Mishaminion]

So if Anna's edges are ignored in Nationals?

 

[Good Vibes Only]

I might be wrong here but didn‘t Masha make the GPF in the Olympic season and medal there?

You are right. Masha got second at the grand prix final. I think that the situation with Zhenya is much different then it was with Lena. The season before the olympic season, Lena was struggling with her growing body and had some inconsistencies, which left her off of the world team. Lena did do well at her grand prixs, but had very hard assignments and ended up not qualifying for the grand prix final meanwhile Maria did. As much as a I love Lena (she is the reason I became a fan of skating), I do think that the Rus Fed made the right decision there. Had Lena skated clean at Nats, then it would have been a little more debatable. Zhenya on the other hand was going into last season as the Olympic silver medalist and had the potantial to skate clean programs and still earn very high scores. Due to this I do not think that Zhenya versus Lena is a good comparison.

Does anyone know how Elena is doing? Is she still coaching?

 

[Orlov]

Like this girl, Sof'ya Akat'yeva. Don't understand what she's saying, but she is the first Eteri girl to jump both 3A and 4T in one competition.

I made subtitles for you for part of the video with Sonya. Here. She talked about the show Ice Age Kids. This part was a “sweet moment” in the news block about that Sonya was afraid of an interview. Sonya spoke excitedly, in a slightly trembling voice. My favorite moment is when she finished talking and shyly/hesitatingly made a sound like "uhmmm ..." I put this in subtitles too

 

[Edwin]

I made subtitles for you for part of the video with Sonya. Here. She talked about the show Ice Age Kids. This part was a “sweet moment” in the news block about that Sonya was afraid of an interview. Sonya spoke excitedly, in a slightly trembling voice. My favorite moment is when she finished talking and shyly/hesitatingly made a sound like "uhmmm ..." I put this in subtitles too

I thought Sof'ya was about to cry for failing in her EX, but probably the interview was done before her performance. Did she say господи, так страшно when the microphone was taken off? i.e. lord, that was scary?

She'll get used to giving interviews later, but for some people being in the camera's focus, the center of attention to millions of invisible eyes will always be a frightening experience.

And repeating again, Sof'ya was very good in that first season of Ice Age, Kids, save for her finals performance, I thought in every of her stages she was the best.
Speaking of Ice Age, Kids, Channel One will most likely continue with the show/competition, riding the waves of success in current Russia's figure skating.
Which Khrustalniy girl will they invite? Adeliya Petrosyan will be 13 next year, and is KMS and JPG eligible, so probably ranked just a bit too high. They do invite returning applicants from 2SP or 1SP ranks?

 

[[email protected]]

So if Anna's edges are ignored in Nationals?

Anna's edges are not perfect but there are very few people with perfect Yuna/Liza/Boyang lutz edges. The relevant outcry starts in 2 cases: when deep inside edges are not called and when there is judging inconsistency when some calls are made and other are not. Like Zagitova/Bell case during IdF. Mariah does not have a good lutz edge. TP found no problems with her but they found them with Alina. Anna's edges are borderline. But the same is true with Satoko and Amber Glenn who competed in China - there were pictures in this thread. Then, yes, if borderline edges are ignored with some skaters they should be ignored with Anna as well and Nationals could send this message.

 

[katymay]

One more post about Eteri and Zhenya....

Zhenya has always been a 'leader' type, but her time in Canada has fueled this trait. I wouldn't be surprised to see her rise through the ranks of the Russian Federation in future years. Whatever role she takes on in the future, she will be important to the sport, and its administration. I have a feeling that in 10 years or so, she will be a very important person to have on your side. I hope that she and Eteri can get together someday very soon and hash things out, because I don't think Zhenya is going away, even after retirement. She is deeply empowered, and perhaps some of that is owing to Eteri. (Maybe not, but none of us will ever know).

As far as 3A-each girl has the tools to win, and each one can win depending upon how the other two skate. We saw that last year, and I don't think anything has changed, except for Kostornaia getting her 3A. If Kostornaia gets quads in the future, then it really is over for everyone in the world. Right now though, what makes everything so exciting, is that each girl has the capacity to win.

 

[Scott512]

The state of Russian senior ladies before the Rusnats

1. Alexandra Trusova is one and only
2. Alena Kostornaya has to land triple axels in Japan, then she will be also above the clouds.

Those two skaters should be gold and silver at Rusnats. Injuries aside it will be the most outrageous thing if they are not in the team based both on the body of work and their scores this season.

3. - 5. Anna Scherbakova
3. - 5. Alina Zagitova
3. - 5. Evgenija Medvedeva

Here lies the key drama of the season. One out of three will be in the worlds team. If all three are clean Evgenija is surely the weakest link: Anna's quads will outweigh her lack of pcs, and Alina's TES is higher with similar pcs. However, nerves will be strained to the limit - I would argue that Rusnats this time will be the strongest competition in the history of this event. GPF with Rika could rival it. However, there are just 6 skaters there with no Zhenya and Liza.

6. Liza Tuktamysheva

International panels made a statement that she cannot expect the same scores that she received last season while #3 - 5 are still in the game. I am sure that she will be held domestically as well in order to not make a difficult choice a total nightmare. One big situation will be if she lands 3 triple axels and the rest of her stuff and 4 out of 5 above stated skaters have really bad days (like all senior ladies had at last Rusnats). If Liza wins silver that will be truly a twist in this year drama.

Everybody else

Ksenia Tsibinova is on the rise. It is interesting how she will perform vs. other more familiar names and another Ksenia: Sinitsina

Gubanova, Tarakanova, Sakhanovich, Samodurova - it is always interesting to watch them skate. May be some of them or even all of them will shine. It will change little team wise but it may make a splash with long lasting effects.

Sotskova, Konstantinova - a farewell? Or some miracle will happen?

Thank you for such an interesting and in-depth post I agree with much of it. But how can any of the Anastasia is ever make a splash if they're almost never skating and events? Especially Gubanova. She has like three stages of the Russian cup and hopefully senior nationals where she skated just fine the last 2 years. That's only like four skates for an entire season. Lol.

Stasya will be okay. she will be unbelievable in the professional shows where her beauty and Glamour and long lines can really be featured. The pressure will be off in those events compared to competitions. But I am surprised how much she has struggled this season. We all know she's so up and down. But after the Aurora games she's been just down. Stasya must be hurting deeply but I hope she can remember her skating brings joy to many people. Figure skating is so beautiful but it's a brutal sport too.

I expect Maria to officially retire after this season and go to university and do some professional shows because she would be great in those too like Stasya. it's always interesting to look at a very tall lady figure skater like Maria or Stanislava or Polina. But it's very hard for the toiler ladies to survive in today's figure skating extremes. Bradie is doing it but she's an exception to the rule.

 

[Mishaminion]

Bradie is very slender though.

I'm thinking Maria will retire too, it makes me sad, she's a lovely skater, and I can see how smug certain faces will be who were clamouring for the poor girl to hang up her skates.

 

[Edwin]

As far as 3A-each girl has the tools to win, and each one can win depending upon how the other two skate. We saw that last year, and I don't think anything has changed, except for Kostornaia getting her 3A. If Kostornaia gets quads in the future, then it really is over for everyone in the world. Right now though, what makes everything so exciting, is that each girl has the capacity to win.

If each member of the Terrific Trio takes two golden wickets home from the Grand Prix stages and all three medal in the Final and in the National Championships, is there really any need for a substitution for 'political' reasons?
I cannot think of FFKSPb having the muscle or money to bend the arms of the decision makers when the results speak so clearly in favour of those three from the same rink, makes logistics even much simpler.

 

[LenaRadiFan]

I might be wrong here but didn‘t Masha make the GPF in the Olympic season and medal there?

No no, Masha did I don't remember if she medalled actually but I can imagine so. That's why I wrote arguably though, because Masha got into gpf but if I remember correctly, Lena outscored her in both events, just had the tougher field(ofc we have to consider luck and different comps here) and the one comp besides nationals, shanghai trophy Elena outscored Masha again, which is the only dorect comparison before nationals. So one can definitely take both sides here, saying Elena had the better scores but tougher fields or Masha that medalled on the gp and did well at nationals(me being a die hard Lena stan, of course I would've loved to see her being given another chance to make the olympic team)

 

[Mishaminion]

Anna's edges are not perfect but there are very few people with perfect Yuna/Liza/Boyang lutz edges. The relevant outcry starts in 2 cases: when deep inside edges are not called and when there is judging inconsistency when some calls are made and other are not. Like Zagitova/Bell case during IdF. Mariah does not have a good lutz edge. TP found no problems with her but they found them with Alina. Anna's edges are borderline. But the same is true with Satoko and Amber Glenn who competed in China - there were pictures in this thread. Then, yes, if borderline edges are ignored with some skaters they should be ignored with Anna as well and Nationals could send this message.

You and I disagree on a lot of things (I like you very much though )

Maybe this will be a factor at Nationals too, the consistency of domestic judging. Some calls made and others ignored or not noticed could make a big difference

 

[Alex65]

If each member of the Terrific Trio takes two golden wickets home from the Grand Prix stages and all three medal in the Final and in the National Championships, is there really any need for a substitution for 'political' reasons?
I cannot think of FFKSPb having the muscle or money to bend the arms of the decision makers when the results speak so clearly in favour of those three from the same rink, makes logistics even much simpler.

If the difference between 3A and everyone else is less than 20 points, for example, then the "political reasons" will undoubtedly be.IMO

 

[[email protected]]

Thank you for such an interesting and in-depth post I agree with much of it. But how can any of the Anastasia is ever make a splash if they're almost never skating and events? Especially Gubanova. She has like three stages of the Russian cup and hopefully senior nationals where she skated just fine the last 2 years. That's only like four skates for an entire season. Lol.

Nastya is a wonderful skater and she had a very good momentum. She partially lost it because of politics when certain choices were made like sending Stasya to junior worlds instead of her. But she herself fell too many times when it was essential not to fall including last year nationals. Hope that she will stay on her feet in Krasnoyarsk.

 

[LenaRadiFan]

You are right. Masha got second at the grand prix final. I think that the situation with Zhenya is much different then it was with Lena. The season before the olympic season, Lena was struggling with her growing body and had some inconsistencies, which left her off of the world team. Lena did do well at her grand prixs, but had very hard assignments and ended up not qualifying for the grand prix final meanwhile Maria did. As much as a I love Lena (she is the reason I became a fan of skating), I do think that the Rus Fed made the right decision there. Had Lena skated clean at Nats, then it would have been a little more debatable. Zhenya on the other hand was going into last season as the Olympic silver medalist and had the potantial to skate clean programs and still earn very high scores. Due to this I do not think that Zhenya versus Lena is a good comparison.

Does anyone know how Elena is doing? Is she still coaching?

Now that you put it like that, I can definitely see what you mean that the situation is different(I definitely still would have loved to see Lena at the olympics, maybe she would've done really well, but oh well we will never know what would've happened)

Regarding Elenas situation,,she does some commentary I think and she recently presented some awards, as well as receiving one(I think it was student of the year or something similar) and she performed in an ice show of Igor Cool(no idea who that is though lol) I think she is doing well, even though I still hope maybe just maybe she will compete one last time(highly unlikely but one can dream, right?)

 

[Mishaminion]

The "political reasons" thing...
I doubt that. That would be like RusFed shooting themselves in the foot.
So far, our new senior Trio have wiped the floor with the competition.

 

[Edwin]

If the difference between 3A and everyone else is less than 20 points, for example, then the "political reasons" will undoubtedly be.IMO

The "political reasons" thing...
I doubt that. That would be like RusFed shooting themselves in the foot.
So far, our new senior Trio have wiped the floor with the competition.

It will be interesting to see how the domestic judges at National Championships apply the reputation bonuses and other subjective criteria. The goal is three skaters capable of 230-250 with good reliability and low risk of 'incorrect calls'.
Wether Kogan's appeal will have any effect on the strictness of calling and judging in a domestic competition, the most important competition in the season, remains to be seen.

From the 8 skaters that took part in the Open Test Skates, 2 are already out of contention, Samodurova most likely, and Konstantinova almost certainly. Three youngsters, already with a 'reputation' against three 'oldies with another reputation', a clash of generations ....

NKH Cup next week, Kostornaya and Zagitova ....

 

[Mathman]

The Fed cannot disregard the messages that she was sent.

yes, if borderline edges are ignored with some skaters they should be ignored with Anna as well and Nationals could send this message.

That is what is so depressing about this whole discussion. The job of the judges is to judge, not to send messages. The job of National Federations and the ISU is to administer national and international skating programs, not to engage in threats, retaliation and one-upmanship.

Just relax and say: "all our top girls are wonderful. Let's judge them objectively at Rusnats. Whoever manage to show 2 best performances will be in the team.

:yes: When they go low, we go high!