2019-20 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Alex65]

I'm sure there is going to be a prediction game about RusNats later on, but I just can't hold myself.

This is my prediction for Russian Nationals (for now)

1. Anna Shcherbakova (!)
2. Alena Kostornaia
3. Alexandra Trusova
4. Alina Zagitova
5. Ksenia Sinitsyna
6. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
7. Evgenia Medvedeva
8. Ksenia Tsibinova
9. Viktoria Vasilieva
10. Anastasia Gubanova
11. Sofia Samodurova
12. Elizaveta Nugumanova
13. Anastasia Tarakanova
14. Serafima Sakhanovich
15. Valeria Shulskaya
16. Anna Frolova
17. Stanislava Konstantinova
18. Maria Sotskova

I have mixed logic with wishful thinking, which is probably not the best thing to do...

I can’t say anything about all the other girls, but just such a podium will not leave any room for political fraud for third place in the world team, especially if Sasha wins the GPF.

 

[Nord Stream 2]

Well, at the end of last season, Daniil did say that all of 3A would be trying to learn 3A's over the off season. My guess is that they ALL trained it, at least in a harness. Nord Stream 2 said he saw Aliona working the 3A when he visited Novogorsk. Perhaps during the summer she couldn't land it when she tried it off harness.

Aliona also said in one of her early interviews (around test skates) that they had to work on her other jumps because she had grown over the summer. She also had her knees all taped up when they performed the SP at test skates, so maybe there were some minor injuries along the way too. Perhaps they set aside the idea of the triple axel for the early part of the season, but after the test skates, when Aliona was told she might have to go to Junior Worlds, she decided she needed a high-difficulty jump ASAP.

If they had laid the groundwork over the summer, I think it's entirely possible that Aliona picked up the 3A again in a few weeks. On the NBC broadcasts, Tara had mentioned that when they talked to Eteri at Skate America, Eteri said that of the 3 girls, Aliona was the most fearful of the difficult jumps, so they have to move slowly with her. Maybe all Aliona really needed was the psychological motivation to conquer her fear, and the feedback from the test skates accomplished that.

To be fair, Aliona's 3A is still really not that consistent. Maybe 50-50%? But it does seem like it's getting better--at least it looked better at the first practice at NHK Trophy.

What I'm now wondering though, is if her sudden success with the 3A was really a surprise for Eteri & team, or whether it was part of their plan all along. I remember that before 2019 Worlds, there was something like Alina was saying "no" to whatever they said, so they kind of tricked her into wanting to go to Worlds by saying she didn't have to go...? Something like that?

So I'm wondering if they knew that Aliona could do a 3A (and that she'd need it to succeed), but because she was somewhat hesitant to try it, they needed to motivate her to do it somehow--hence the talk about having to go to Junior Worlds. I don't know; it's just a thought... I wouldn't be surprised if this were the case! :yes:

I didn’t say a single secret word until Eteri decided to post it on the Internet. Neither about Alena nor about others.
On the contrary, in the summer I talked about the fact that Alena grew up very much and gained weight. That was so.

Where did you get information about the Junior Championship for Alena? Was that true?

I do not think that anyone was seriously considering this option. Alena was 16 years old, she was already one of the best skaters in the world, already beating such monsters as Sasha, Anna, Zhenya, Alina and Rika. There were no other rivals for her in the world. Maybe Liza and Lilbet.
What is the point of competing with strong young junior girls when she can do the same thing at a higher level with more money and popularity, having good chances to win even without 3A?

 

[katymay]

Considering she may do a 4T I don’t think Liza is out of the conversation now.

No. With the 4T, (and a beautiful one at that!so easy looking) I feel she moves into 3d or 4th, ahead of Alina and Zhenya on the depth chart. She loses points in certain areas, but she gains in reputation by adapting to a changing landscape and keeping herself competitive. I wouldn't count her out at all.

 

[Sugar Coated]

I didn’t say a single secret word until Eteri decided to post it on the Internet. Neither about Alena nor about others.
On the contrary, in the summer I talked about the fact that Alena grew up very much and gained weight. That was so.

Where did you get information about the Junior Championship for Alena? Was that true?

I do not think that anyone was seriously considering this option. Alena was 16 years old, she was already one of the best skaters in the world, already beating such monsters as Sasha, Anna, Zhenya, Alina and Rika. There were no other rivals for her in the world. Maybe Liza and Lilbet.
What is the point of competing with strong young junior girls when she can do the same thing at a higher level with more money and popularity, having good chances to win even without 3A?

I have no idea if this is true or not, but I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that there was discussion prior to the start of the season about sending Alena to junior worlds. I’d assume the motivation would be to have a clear lock on earning 3 spots for the juniors. The current junior crop had not yet really been tested in international competitions and they may have wanted a safety net so they considered sending what the assumed at the time was the least competitive of the 3A. Especially after test skates when it looked like Alena would be scoring below her other 3 teammates (and possibly even Zhenya and Liza) especially given her base value without the triple axel and not knowing what kind of pcs should would earn in her firs year. If they assumed Sasha, Anna, and Alina would be going to worlds it makes sense to send Alena to junior worlds rather than not compete at all. But now Alena has shown she’s got the second highest score in the world and that all seems ridiculous.

 

[flanker]

I have no idea if this is true or not, but I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that there was discussion prior to the start of the season about sending Alena to junior worlds. I’d assume the motivation would be to have a clear lock on earning 3 spots for the juniors. The current junior crop had not yet really been tested in international competitions and they may have wanted a safety net so they considered sending what the assumed at the time was the least competitive of the 3A. Especially after test skates when it looked like Alena would be scoring below her other 3 teammates (and possibly even Zhenya and Liza) especially given her base value without the triple axel and not knowing what kind of pcs should would earn in her firs year. If they assumed Sasha, Anna, and Alina would be going to worlds it makes sense to send Alena to junior worlds rather than not compete at all. But now Alena has shown she’s got the second highest score in the world and that all seems ridiculous.

I doubt someone would seriously plan entries for worlds and junior worlds before the senior season has even started. Yes, someone could have the idea that IF Aliona (or any of the new seniors) wouldn't be able to qualify to senior Euros/Worlds, then and only then, thanks to their age, it would be possible to spare an entry to junior worlds for the one that would be affected by it, but just as a possible backup plan, not as something purposely intended from the beginning.

 

[Nord Stream 2]

I have no idea if this is true or not, but I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that there was discussion prior to the start of the season about sending Alena to junior worlds. I’d assume the motivation would be to have a clear lock on earning 3 spots for the juniors. The current junior crop had not yet really been tested in international competitions and they may have wanted a safety net so they considered sending what the assumed at the time was the least competitive of the 3A. Especially after test skates when it looked like Alena would be scoring below her other 3 teammates (and possibly even Zhenya and Liza) especially given her base value without the triple axel and not knowing what kind of pcs should would earn in her firs year. If they assumed Sasha, Anna, and Alina would be going to worlds it makes sense to send Alena to junior worlds rather than not compete at all. But now Alena has shown she’s got the second highest score in the world and that all seems ridiculous.

Firstly, I was based on the words of Daniil "we will not specifically keep anyone in juniors."

Secondly, I do not think that the team with Kamila, Dasha, Maya, youngest Alena, Ksenia, Anna, Anastasia and Vika is weak. With a successful set of circumstances, one of them could win the world championship among adults right now. Yes, the juniors skated unsuccessfully, as did the ladies. But three places in the final for such a team is a minimum.

And thirdly, I liked Alena's test skates even without 3A. She showed more quality than Zhenya, Sonya and Stasya.

Most importantly: I can’t imagine that Eteri came up to Alena and told her: “Hey, skate for a year as a junior, I order you this”
This is not in the style of Tutberidze. After such words, Alena would turn around and leave forever.

 

[dunffvanstorn]

Lilbet has just posted something. Can somebody translate it? It looks like a comeback or something, idk

 

[ruga]

Lilbet has just posted something. Can somebody translate it? It looks like a comeback or something, idk

I think she asks her fans to vote for her for best athlete award in Kazakhstan. Doesn't seem like a comeback unfortunately.

 

[Sugar Coated]

Firstly, I was based on the words of Daniil "we will not specifically keep anyone in juniors."

Secondly, I do not think that the team with Kamila, Dasha, Maya, youngest Alena, Ksenia, Anna, Anastasia and Vika is weak. With a successful set of circumstances, one of them could win the world championship among adults right now. Yes, the juniors skated unsuccessfully, as did the ladies. But three places in the final for such a team is a minimum.

And thirdly, I liked Alena's test skates even without 3A. She showed more quality than Zhenya, Sonya and Stasya.

Most importantly: I can’t imagine that Eteri came up to Alena and told her: “Hey, skate for a year as a junior, I order you this”
This is not in the style of Tutberidze. After such words, Alena would turn around and leave forever.

Of course nothing was stated definitively. I’m just saying that I could potentially see there being discussion with Alena that she may need to work on complicating her program. It could be an incentive to work on getting the 3A to discuss a possibility that after test skates she was judged to be the 5th/6th skater and may need to complicate her program. Or she could keep it the same but may run the risk of being asked to compete in juniors if her senior debut isn’t very successful. This is useful feedback and I’d expect a coach to give realistic feedback from the fed about their expectations so the skater can make decisions about their training. Do you play it safe and keeping your program as is, this is a possible consequence. Or do you want to train more competitive jumps? This also has risks.

I love Alena and really enjoyed her skate during test skates but I could definitely see the fed giving her coach feedback that she may be asked to compete at junior worlds considering how many strong seniors they already have and possible uncertainty about the ability of the current juniors to compete under pressure. I imagine they have these kind of discussions with the coaches so they can be prepared for these possibilities based on their assessments at test skates.

 

[moriel]

I have no idea if this is true or not, but I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that there was discussion prior to the start of the season about sending Alena to junior worlds. I’d assume the motivation would be to have a clear lock on earning 3 spots for the juniors. The current junior crop had not yet really been tested in international competitions and they may have wanted a safety net so they considered sending what the assumed at the time was the least competitive of the 3A. Especially after test skates when it looked like Alena would be scoring below her other 3 teammates (and possibly even Zhenya and Liza) especially given her base value without the triple axel and not knowing what kind of pcs should would earn in her firs year. If they assumed Sasha, Anna, and Alina would be going to worlds it makes sense to send Alena to junior worlds rather than not compete at all. But now Alena has shown she’s got the second highest score in the world and that all seems ridiculous.

Its out of the realm imho.
She is older of the three. There is literally no reason to keep her in juniors, 3A or no 3A.

 

[jenm]

Liza's 4T was pretty and easy on the eyes! Good job!
The seniors of senior ladies are fighting!
Wakaba also has her 3A back. Yeyy

 

[Ziotic]

If one of 3A were to falter at nationals, thus ending up off euro/world team, do you think Rusfed would send them to junior worlds? As a consolation prize?

 

[lusterfan]

If one of 3A were to falter at nationals, thus ending up off euro/world team, do you think Rusfed would send them to junior worlds? As a consolation prize?

The optics of that would just be so weird in my opinion. They've clearly moved on and made their senior debut. To get a "consolation" prize by placing them back down to juniors would send mixed signals to everyone involved, including the viewers and the judges. It's not uncommon for this to happen, but usually in countries with less depth. There are plenty of Russian ladies juniors who could use the junior worlds spot.

 

[Thrashergurl]

I don’t understand the fascination with sending one of these girls to junior worlds. They’re dominating Seniors. Logically, based on current scores, the one sent could potentially be Anna. Alena is heads and shoulders above her, and IMO she’s a better all around skater than any of the Russian ladies. That said, is there a guarantee Anna would win Juniors Worlds? I guess I don’t understand the push for any of these girls to skate at the junior level again.

 

[vesperalvioletta]

If one of 3A were to falter at nationals, thus ending up off euro/world team, do you think Rusfed would send them to junior worlds? As a consolation prize?

Kostornaya has said in interviews after test skates that she was afraid that if she didn't do something to up her technical content that she would be sent back down to compete in juniors. Not sure if that came from her or the coaches, but it seems like it could be a possibility. I just don't know why they'd want to now. I think it would really damage the perception of whichever girl got bumped back down in senior competition.

 

[theteez]

Its out of the realm imho.
She is older of the three. There is literally no reason to keep her in juniors, 3A or no 3A.

I agree. During Russian Nationals she could have won it if not for the mistake in the short. At this point being still a junior she beat all the senior skaters without a 3A and had scores very close to Anna’s and Sasha’s without a quad or 3A. No way will the federation hold her back in juniors.

 

[SkateSkates]

The only event I could see an argument to send one of the 3A to would be the Youth Olympics because of the strict 2003-2005 age limit, which excludes Kamila. Ksenia is the obvious first choice here, but IMO the 2nd spot is really up in the air. Young You will be going, Alysa is also age eligible. So with these strong competitions at the event, I can understand wanting to send one of the 3A here to ensure a gold.

That said, now that Aliona and Sasha can do a triple Axel, it really doesn’t make sense for them to be sent back to junior competition as they would have a disadvantage in the SP and need to change their layout. Anna has the 3rd highest SB as well and maybe a 3A in the works for the 2nd half of the season. So it’s hard to make an argument for her too.

 

[Nord Stream 2]

The only event I could see an argument to send one of the 3A to would be the Youth Olympics because of the strict 2003-2005 age limit, which excludes Kamila. Ksenia is the obvious first choice here, but IMO the 2nd spot is really up in the air. Young You will be going, Alysa is also age eligible. So with these strong competitions at the event, I can understand wanting to send one of the 3A here to ensure a gold.

That said, now that Aliona and Sasha can do a triple Axel, it really doesn’t make sense for them to be sent back to junior competition as they would have a disadvantage in the SP and need to change their layout. Anna has the 3rd highest SB as well and maybe a 3A in the works for the 2nd half of the season. So it’s hard to make an argument for her too.

Does ISU take into account the results of the Youth Olympics for entering the GP stages?

 

[Ice Dance]

Does ISU take into account the results of the Youth Olympics for entering the GP stages?

No.

 

[Batsuchan]

I didn’t say a single secret word until Eteri decided to post it on the Internet. Neither about Alena nor about others.
On the contrary, in the summer I talked about the fact that Alena grew up very much and gained weight. That was so.

Where did you get information about the Junior Championship for Alena? Was that true?

I do not think that anyone was seriously considering this option. Alena was 16 years old, she was already one of the best skaters in the world, already beating such monsters as Sasha, Anna, Zhenya, Alina and Rika. There were no other rivals for her in the world. Maybe Liza and Lilbet.
What is the point of competing with strong young junior girls when she can do the same thing at a higher level with more money and popularity, having good chances to win even without 3A?

Hi Nord Stream 2 - this is the post of yours from last week that I was referring to:

I was lucky to see Alena in Novogrosk. coached 3A. Puberty is in full swing. Jumping above the side. My opinion is that she is the future world champion.

Don't worry, I wasn't suggesting that you released secret info!

But clearly Aliona was working on the 3A over the summer. Maybe not successfully.

Here's the interview where she said she was told she might have to go back to juniors, which Edwin kindly translated for us in Aliona's fan fest:

Alyona Kostornaya: my triple Axels are the result of wounded pride

- How did you assess your chances for the season before its start?

A: Even before the September Test Skates, when we were discussing plans, I was very hurt internally when I heard from different angles: "Well, yes, you did well, but if you had jumped something like this ...."
How could these " if only's " piss me off! It could turn out this way, with such a set in the second half of the season I have to skate in juniors again?

- It turned out that wounded pride works wonders?

A: That's for sure.

-----
From: https://tass.ru/interviews/7076281

So you all could be correct--it's quite possible that Team Tutberidze/RusFed never seriously intended for Aliona to go to Junior Worlds; it could've all been a ruse to make her motivated to do the triple axel. If so, it worked! :yes: