2019-20 U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[TontoK]

A healthy Vincent should still have no problem making top 3 at Nats. His problems are usually injuries and attempting layouts that are too difficult for him. But hopefully his extended layoff has convinced him that trying to out jump Nathan is not realistic and that two clean, watered-down programs should still get him top 3 at least.

In theory, I agree. But, I'm a "show me" kind of guy.

So far, all you and I have to base our guesses on are performances from last season. A lot can happen, both good and bad, over a season. I wasn't really impressed this summer with the programs or his execution of them... and I really wanted to be.

 

[TontoK]

When comparing huge disaster potential+World bronze medal with huge disaster potential+not much, huge-disaster potential+World bronze medal is a fairly padded body of work.

I'm sad to say there is nothing I can come up with to refute this. So, I stand corrected.

These guys really did let some golden opportunities go by the wayside. The enormity of it didn't hit me until I read your post.

 

[Ice Dance]

The list includes Nicholas Hsieh, who placed fifth in Junior Men at Eastern Sectionals. (Eastern's top four junior men also are on the list.)
[/LIST]

Sylvia's theory, per FSU, is that the unanticipated numbers in the junior field may be due to byes for athletes named to the Youth Olympics. This would make sense. If Malinin, for example, received a Youth Olympics bye then there would be room for another athlete from Easterns. (Ditto for the extra dance team if one of the high-ranked teams has a bye--which they probably would since all of the age-eligible likely candidates with citizenship were at the ice dance final). Anyway, it's just a theory and she says the athletes for the Youth Olympics have not been announced. But it does sound like a plausible theory.

 

[ice coverage]

Sylvia's theory, per FSU, is that the unanticipated numbers in the junior field may be due to byes for athletes named to the Youth Olympics. This would make sense. If Malinin, for example, received a Youth Olympics bye then there would be room for another athlete from Easterns. (Ditto for the extra dance team if one of the high-ranked teams has a bye--which they probably would since all of the age-eligible likely candidates with citizenship were at the ice dance final). Anyway, it's just a theory and she says the athletes for the Youth Olympics have not been announced. But it does sound like a plausible theory.

Hmmm ... thanks for sharing Sylvia's theory.

ETA:

I just deleted a lot of now-extraneous thoughts, because it finally dawned upon me what (I think) the basis for Sylvia's theory is??

I have not seen what she wrote on FSU, but YOG would be the third major international assignment of the season for Malinin (two JGPs + YOG). He also competed at Philadelphia International, but maybe that does not count?
So assignment to YOG would result in an international bye?

I am guessing that Sylvia did not mean that USFS would give a YOG-specific bye???
(USFS published a document explaining its criteria for international byes for this season, but did not mention a YOG-specific bye.)
​

 

[Ice Dance]

Hmmm ... thanks for sharing Sylvia's theory.

ETA:

I just deleted a lot of now-extraneous thoughts, because it finally dawned upon me what (I think) the basis for Sylvia's theory is??

I have not seen what she wrote on FSU, but YOG would be the third major international assignment of the season for Malinin (two JGPs + YOG). He also competed at Philadelphia International, but maybe that does not count?
So assignment to YOG would result in an international bye?

I am guessing that Sylvia did not mean that USFS would give a YOG-specific bye???
(USFS published a document explaining its criteria for international byes for this season, but did not mention a YOG-specific bye.)
​

I don't know. But if it is a matter of three international assignments, then another event for Wolfkostin & Chen--who are the most likely team to be selected for YOG--would be a third international assignment. Ditto with the Browns who are also eligible. (No, I wouldn't think Philadelphia would count as USFSA does not name those athletes and place them on their international calendar. Ditto for Lake Placid International).

 

[ice coverage]

I don't know. But if it is a matter of three international assignments, then another event for Wolfkostin & Chen--who are the most likely team to be selected for YOG--would be a third international assignment. Ditto with the Browns who are also eligible. (No, I wouldn't think Philadelphia would count as USFSA does not name those athletes and place them on their international calendar. Ditto for Lake Placid International).

I agree that for a Nats bye based on three internationals, Lake Placid International and Philadelphia International apparently do not count toward the requirement -- at least for juniors. Otherwise, both Cesanek/Yehorov and the Browns competed at LPIDC + two JGPs, and therefore already would qualify for an international bye to Nats, regardless of YOG. Which would mean that both Flores/Bouaziz and Taylor/Vollmer, who placed thirteenth and fourteenth at the Dance Final, would have advanced to Nats. But the reality is that Flores/Bouaziz did advance but Taylor/Vollmer did not.

It occurs to me that regardless of YOG, Wolfkostin/Chen already had three international assignments -- two JGPs + Golden Spin -- before the Nats list was published. Which is another reason (in addition to their top NQS placement [among eligible couples], which USFS had announced as the basis for YOG selection) that they likely will be the YOG dancers. If the Browns were assigned to YOG, then Taylor/Vollmer also should have advanced to Nats.

(Meanwhile I am 99% sure that Philadelphia International did give Akari Nakahara [senior ladies] her international bye to sectionals.
Although Akari's NQS placement/score theoretically would have been high enough for a bye to sectionals, the thing is that if she "used up" an NQS bye, it would have been the sixth one for for Pacific Coast ... meaning that Polina Edmunds would not have received an NQS bye to sectionals.)

Returning to the topic of U.S. men , I wonder whether Team USA will use both of its men's slots.
Per ISU Communication No. 2284 (dated Oct 9): Israel already has said that it will not use its pair slot; ditto for France; and Azerbaijan has said that it will not use its men's slot. The vacated slots already have been reallocated to other federations.
There was no indication (at least as of then) that the U.S. will forfeit its second slot for men.

I wonder also how soon USFS will announce the YOG team.
The bio for junior pair Fleming/Isbell has been added (very recently, IIRC) to USFS fan zone. And I believe they likely are the YOG pair (highest NQS score among eligible pairs).

---

Unrelated to YOG, the bio for Lucas Altieri (junior men) also has been added to USFS fan zone.

In his case, presumably because of his assignment to Golden Spin. Good luck to Lucas. :yay:

 

[moonvine]

I agree that for a Nats bye based on three internationals, Lake Placid International and Philadelphia International apparently do not count toward the requirement -- at least for juniors. Otherwise, both Cesanek/Yehorov and the Browns competed at LPIDC + two JGPs, and therefore already would qualify for an international bye to Nats, regardless of YOG. Which would mean that both Flores/Bouaziz and Taylor/Vollmer, who placed thirteenth and fourteenth at the Dance Final, would have advanced to Nats. But the reality is that Flores/Bouaziz did advance but Taylor/Vollmer did not.

It occurs to me that regardless of YOG, Wolfkostin/Chen already had three international assignments -- two JGPs + Golden Spin -- before the Nats list was published. Which is another reason (in addition to their top NQS placement [among eligible couples], which USFS had announced as the basis for YOG selection) that they likely will be the YOG dancers. If the Browns were assigned to YOG, then Taylor/Vollmer also should have advanced to Nats.

(Meanwhile I am 99% sure that Philadelphia International did give Akari Nakahara [senior ladies] her international bye to sectionals.
Although Akari's NQS placement/score theoretically would have been high enough for a bye to sectionals, the thing is that if she "used up" an NQS bye, it would have been the sixth one for for Pacific Coast ... meaning that Polina Edmunds would not have received an NQS bye to sectionals.)

Returning to the topic of U.S. men , I wonder whether Team USA will use both of its men's slots.
Per ISU Communication No. 2284 (dated Oct 9): Israel already has said that it will not use its pair slot; ditto for France; and Azerbaijan has said that it will not use its men's slot. The vacated slots already have been reallocated to other federations.
There was no indication (at least as of then) that the U.S. will forfeit its second slot for men.

I wonder also how soon USFS will announce the YOG team.
The bio for junior pair Fleming/Isbell has been added (very recently, IIRC) to USFS fan zone. And I believe they likely are the YOG pair (highest NQS score among eligible pairs).

---

Unrelated to YOG, the bio for Lucas Altieri (junior men) also has been added to USFS fan zone.

In his case, presumably because of his assignment to Golden Spin. Good luck to Lucas. :yay:

Yes, good luck to Lucas. . Very nice young man.

 

[Tavi...]

Could y’all who want to discuss ladies pairs and ice dance take it to the appropriate threads please? Thank you.

 

[ice coverage]

Could y’all who want to discuss ladies pairs and ice dance take it to the appropriate threads please? Thank you.

Happy to do so when what is going on in those disciplines is completely unrelated to what is going on in the men's discipline.

But as we all know, sometimes what is going on with members of a different discipline is relevant to and/or intertwined with what is going on with one or more members of the men's discipline -- as was the case here.

 

[Tavi...]

We all have different opinions, but truthfully, I don’t really see the relevance.

 

[Ice Dance]

The relevance was an attempt to understand why there are more junior athletes on the Nationals lists than we originally anticipated. I considered which thread to post Sylvia's theory in--as ice coverage had mentioned the extra athletes in more than one and I didn't really think we needed to have the same conversation in every relevant discipline. Anyway, the men's thread was as good as the other possible options as clearly there were more junior men on the list than expected.

I believe we'd already moved on for now, though, Tavi. At least until we learn something new or a different theory is floated. (In which case, again, this seems like a perfectly relevant thread as it happens to be one of the disciplines impacted).

 

[ice coverage]

We all have different opinions, but truthfully, I don’t really see the relevance.

When I don't see the relevance of something -- even a much more prolonged discussion than the one here that was connected to YOG in relation to U.S. men -- I usually find it easy enough to quietly skip over what is not of interest to me.

Especially because there was a lot of interest/unhappiness in this thread regarding how senior men were affected by USFS rules for advancement to Nats, trying to understand the unexpected number of junior men who advanced seems relevant to me.
Sylvia's theory re YOG would mean that USFS was not making an arbitrary decision to bend the rules to add an extra slot for junior men -- and it is a relief for me to see the logic behind the extra slot.
A relief, because if there were not any logic behind the extra slot for junior men, it would be natural to wonder if there would be any possibility of USFS making an arbitrary decision to bend the rules (in a different way) to add one or more extra slots for senior men.

 

[Tavi...]

Last year at this time, the old US Men’s thread had nearly 700 posts. Two years ago, it had more than 1100, more twice as many as in the current thread. I don’t know why there’s been such a drop off in discussing the US men, but as it’s my favorite discipline, I still get excited every time I see that there are new posts in this thread. And I get disappointed when those posts turn out be tangential at best.

To your points, @ice coverage and @Ice Dance, if this were an active thread and conversation had indeed moved on to discuss the chances of our guys at Golden Spin or GPF, or if people were assessing how guys have stacked up so far in the season, what they’re doing right or wrong, or what we might see from them at Nats, etc., I would have had no problem skipping over a few posts I didn’t find particularly interesting. If you or anyone else have thoughts on those things, I would be eager to read and discuss them.

 

[ice coverage]

YOG is a competition that includes men. It comes before U.S. Nats. So discussion of YOG is not looking farther into the future than discussion of Nats.
As you said before, opinions can vary. The discussion concerned U.S. men at Nats and YOG, and was not "tangential at best" to me.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

---

Yes, good luck to Lucas. . Very nice young man.

:agree: Lucas indeed is a very pleasant and gracious young man -- plus I enjoy his skating, especially his performance quality.

Already looking forward to seeing him at Nats, as well as other junior men such as David Shapiro, Goku Endo, and Joe Klein. Sorry that Daniel Argueta did not qualify for Nats.

For anyone curious about the status of the twelve junior men from 2019 Nats:

The top three -- Ryan Dunk, Dinh Tran, and Joonsoo Kim -- all qualified as senior men for 2020 Nats.
Pewter medalist Peter Liu placed fifth at Eastern sectionals in senior men.
Returning as junior men to 2020 Nats: Lucas, Joseph Kang, David, Eric Sjoberg, and Chase Finster.
Alex Wellman will compete in junior pairs at 2020 Nats.
Max Lake withdrew from Pacific Coast sectionals in junior men.
Luke Ferrante had an NQS bye to Midwestern sectionals in junior men, but apparently did not compete there.​

So thirteen skaters will be new to Nats as junior men in 2020; Maxim Naumov will return from 2018; and five will return from 2019.

 

[sheetz]

Interesting TV interview (w/ English subtitles) Tomoki did while in Japan for NHK. He speaks Japanese very well.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bBDsqdwXlZjuTD7-dvWfv03dZbedxQou/view

 

[Tavi...]

Interesting TV interview (w/ English subtitles) Tomoki did while in Japan for NHK. He speaks Japanese very well.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bBDsqdwXlZjuTD7-dvWfv03dZbedxQou/view

Thanks for posting this - I’m excited to listen, and for those of you who (like me) don’t understand Japanese - it looks like there are English subtitles!

@ice coverage, I heard that Max Aaron was recently in a show? Any word on how he did and/or what he’s up to these days? Is he still working in finance?

 

[snowflake]

Last year at this time, the old US Men’s thread had nearly 700 posts. Two years ago, it had more than 1100, more twice as many as in the current thread. I don’t know why there’s been such a drop off in discussing the US men, but as it’s my favorite discipline, I still get excited every time I see that there are new posts in this thread. And I get disappointed when those posts turn out be tangential at best.

I think that’s because the olympic season was so exciting with many of the guys fighting for an olympic spot: Nathan, Jason, Max, Vincent, Adam, Ross, Grant….

Last year the three on top was not a question, Nathan, Vincent and Jason. This nationals again I really can’t see anyone beat these three. Jason has such quality on his elements and high PCS that he can afford a mistake or two. We haven’t seen Vincent since september and at least I haven’t heard much about how his training goes or what his goals are. But I can’t imagine that he isn’t training for a medal at nationals. And I can’t imagine him losing his skating while studying. I would love to hear more about how he’s juggled skating and studying, how he has interacted with his coaches, if he’d had enough ice time etc.

Tomoki, entertaining skater for sure and the one I thought would challenge the veterans, has looked insecure and been up and down at his events. I think I read somewhere he said he’s taking it slowly or something like that? Camden, Alexei and Andrew, also great to watch but inconsistent. For me neither looks ready for a US medal. But perhaps one of them could do a ’Roman Sadovsky’(who won bronze at NHK grand prix) at US nationals. As no one except for Nathan has shined in the autumn maybe nationals will be what counts the most for a world ticket.

We’ll see what happens at Golden spin. Very excited to see if Jason goes for the quad and if Camden and Alexei can impress me more than they have so far.

After that, and hopefully more information on all of them, we can do predictions for nationals and the world team here!

I’m also eager to open posts about the US men. Actually seeking for this thread among the first. But posts in all threads often strays from the original topic. I think it’s inevitably and mostly it doesn’t bother me

 

[oly2018]

I think that’s because the olympic season was so exciting with many of the guys fighting for an olympic spot: Nathan, Jason, Max, Vincent, Adam, Ross, Grant….

Last year the three on top was not a question, Nathan, Vincent and Jason. This nationals again I really can’t see anyone beat these three. Jason has such quality on his elements and high PCS that he can afford a mistake or two. We haven’t seen Vincent since september and at least I haven’t heard much about how his training goes or what his goals are. But I can’t imagine that he isn’t training for a medal at nationals. And I can’t imagine him losing his skating while studying. I would love to hear more about how he’s juggled skating and studying, how he has interacted with his coaches, if he’d had enough ice time etc.

Tomoki, entertaining skater for sure and the one I thought would challenge the veterans, has looked insecure and been up and down at his events. I think I read somewhere he said he’s taking it slowly or something like that? Camden, Alexei and Andrew, also great to watch but inconsistent. For me neither looks ready for a US medal. But perhaps one of them could do a ’Roman Sadovsky’(who won bronze at NHK grand prix) at US nationals. As no one except for Nathan has shined in the autumn maybe nationals will be what counts the most for a world ticket.

We’ll see what happens at Golden spin. Very excited to see if Jason goes for the quad and if Camden and Alexei can impress me more than they have so far.

After that, and hopefully more information on all of them, we can do predictions for nationals and the world team here!

I’m also eager to open posts about the US men. Actually seeking for this thread among the first. But posts in all threads often strays from the original topic. I think it’s inevitably and mostly it doesn’t bother me

I think your post is spot on. Unlike the other US disciplines, there isn't much in flux. Nathan is Nathan and Jason and Vincent don't have any serious challengers right now. Even if Tomoki or Camden skated lights out at Nationals and managed to land in 2nd or 3rd, I don't know if there would be much of an argument to take them to worlds over Jason or Vincent.

Unfortunately, the entire men's field has been horribly inconsistent this year, except for Nathan and Yuzu. I expect that to be on display at US Nats and I wouldn't be surprised if someone different lands on the podium. Vincent is a giant question mark. I know he said in an interview that he would be back at Nationals, but I think the relative silence about his training situation compared to the excess of information we got when Nathan started school is interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't in fighting form at Nationals if he does compete. With Jason, he seems to be less confident this year and it is affecting his performance. Either of them could make one or two too many mistakes and land in the pewter position. It will definitely be interesting to watch unfold.

 

[snowflake]

I think your post is spot on. Unlike the other US disciplines, there isn't much in flux. Nathan is Nathan and Jason and Vincent don't have any serious challengers right now. Even if Tomoki or Camden skated lights out at Nationals and managed to land in 2nd or 3rd, I don't know if there would be much of an argument to take them to worlds over Jason or Vincent.

Unfortunately, the entire men's field has been horribly inconsistent this year, except for Nathan and Yuzu. I expect that to be on display at US Nats and I wouldn't be surprised if someone different lands on the podium. Vincent is a giant question mark. I know he said in an interview that he would be back at Nationals, but I think the relative silence about his training situation compared to the excess of information we got when Nathan started school is interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't in fighting form at Nationals if he does compete. With Jason, he seems to be less confident this year and it is affecting his performance. Either of them could make one or two too many mistakes and land in the pewter position. It will definitely be interesting to watch unfold.

But wasn't Nathan always more on social media than Vincent? I don't follow any of them closely, but pick up information here and there from this forum. Jason doesn't tell much either of his training, right?

 

[oly2018]

But wasn't Nathan always more on social media than Vincent? I don't follow any of them closely, but pick up information here and there from this forum. Jason doesn't tell much either of his training, right?

Compared to other skaters, none of the US men are super active on social media, but the general media covered Nathan's school/skating balance a lot. Between NBC, Lynn, and Phil, there were constant updates about where he was at. Even Karen has gotten a few features about how she is balancing everything.