French Fed. imploding: where will Papadakis/Cizeron finish at worlds?

[rain]

I've been mulling this question over since the Four Continents ice dance event. With the French Federation imploding, and thus presumably their political power ebbing for the moment, and P/C already losing Europeans to Sinitsina/Katsalapov, P/C are more vulnerable than they've ever been since they won their first world championship. And yes, I think that may include when they were losing to Virtue and Moir.

The Russians have lined up behind S/K and pushed them to a win at Europeans, in spite of one of the most bland and dull free dances of the season. The Americans have finally lined up behind one team: Chock and Bates, who have been on the rise all season. I think P/C, whose material has not been universally beloved this season, and they've been making visible errors, are vulnerable to these two teams at least. I think it's actually very possible they may finish third at worlds, something I would have thought inconceivable at the beginning of the season. And I think there's an outside chance they finish off the podium, as Skate Canada is lobbying for Gilles/Poirier, and worlds is in Canada.

On the other hand, the judges love P/C's skating. Their quality is undeniable. I personally think their free dance is beautiful and very moving. It remains to be seen how much pull the various ice dance schools have: Gadbois (on home turf in Montreal) vs. Zhulin. For the first time in years, I think all three podium places are up for grabs and the landscape is murky.

I think the most likely outcome is P/C, S/K and C/B on the podium in some order, though I confess in my fantasies Piper and Paul (my personal favourites, who I think have the best pair of programs of the season) sneak through to snatch a medal.

What does everyone else think? Are there others who can play spoiler? It's entirely possible Hubbell and Donohue will be in the top three after the rhythm dance, if season's results count for anything. Will they be a factor?

 

[ancientpeas]

I understand this is ID and all but P/C would have won if not for the two big mistakes they made.

The panel will be very different at Worlds. I don't expect S/K to beat them again this season.

I can tell you what is wrong with P/C's material: Skating to Audiobooks. Please skating Gods do not allow this to become a trend.

 

[dancelion21]

Ice dance is an interesting world where the political power comes just as much from the coaching team, if not moreso, than the federation. The political battle is a larger game between Gadbois and Zhulin than between French fed, US fed, and Rus fed. Of course, the fed is still a major part of the battle, but the strength of the politics of Gadbois, as well as the strength of their skating should mean that P/C are just fine. I certainly don't see a world where P/C finish third overall at Worlds. For the first time in a while, it's a legitimate possibility that they may be in silver, but they are still the favorites heading into Worlds. S/K have a better chance than C/B of finishing second and possibly winning the title, but Euros was also an interesting event where the panel was very favorable for the Russians and P/C made many mistakes. The Worlds panel is more leaning towards Gadbois, and I expect P/C and C/B to benefit from that.

It's entirely possible that H/D finish in the top three after the rhythm dance, but I'm not sure. C/B and H/D both skated very strongly in the rhythm dance at 4CC, and it ended in a virtual tie, where C/B had slightly higher PCS markings while H/D had slightly higher TES markings. However, I feel it's most likely P/C, S/K, and C/B in the top three after the rhythm dance with P/C and S/K very close while C/B are slightly behind. I think that C/B can win the free dance if P/C make even minor mistakes. S/K have a really boring program that hasn't been as well-received by the judges, so third or maybe fourth, behind G/P is where I think they will finish in the free.

I was misunderstood, I meant S/K finish behind G/P.

 

[Jammers]

In what world does P/C finish behind G/P?

 

[ancientpeas]

In what world does P/C finish behind G/P?

Fantasy space camp!

No.. I love Piper and Paul but there is no way they are beating P/C. I'd be thrilled if they could medal at worlds but it's a long shot. Top 5 would be a huge success.

 

[fzztsimmons]

In what world does P/C finish behind G/P?

In my fantasy world lmao

 

[Edwin]

Do they train at this Florida rink with Cipres? When the temporary FFSG board doesn't want or can finance foreign training conditions anymore?

 

[ancientpeas]

Do they train at this Florida rink with Cipres? When the temporary FFSG board doesn't want or can finance foreign training conditions anymore?

They train in Montreal with Marie France and Romain. At Gabois.

 

[heartyxo]

I think they'll still win, barring error. I hope they do. They may not be my favourites but I do think they're the best in the world.

Silver and bronze is a fight between S/K and C/B- I think it'll take mistakes for others to get on the podium. I think S/K is the safer bet for silver, but I vastly prefer C/B and I'm rooting for them to get it. They'll need to keep it close in the RD, though, because they definitely can be ahead in the FD. Politics could also be on C/B's side in that battle because Gadbois has more NA and Asian teams than European teams, so the panel will probably be better for the whole school than it was at Euros. I suspect it could be close between them.

I have a feeling H/D will beat G/P and get fourth IF they're clean. G/P wouldn't have got 4CC silver if it wasn't for their errors. S/B could get bumped down to sixth. But I think it could be a battle between the 3.

 

[noskates]

They will win Worlds!

 

[TontoK]

<snip>

I think P/C, whose material has not been universally beloved this season, and they've been making visible errors, are vulnerable...

<snip>

I get the general idea of your post about the political nature of ice dance, but when a team has rather bland material and are making visible errors, why would we think they'd NOT be vulnerable?

I admire P/C's qualities, but the World Championship is not their birthright.

I don't want them to lose because of politics, and I don't want them to win because of that, either.

 

[Silvia451]

I'm also curious how things go at WC. Usually I try not to blame politics before it actually happens, but I'm not sure what to say about Euros. It seemed unfair to me regardless their mistakes.

I'd also like to see P/C challenged, but I don't think there is any team right now capable of that without some help from the judges. So for my good opinion about figure skating, I hope they win the WC.

 

[Arbitrary]

Russian proverb:
It's a good time to share the pelt of a bear to be killed...

 

[yuna13]

I'm not worried about the politics, i'm worried about Gabriella mental health.
I don't think what happened at the EC helped her. You can clearly see that she was about to break in the kiss and cry.
And now all eyes in France will be on them because of the recent scandal. Nelson Monfort even said that they have to win to restore figure skating image.

The good thing is if they win this time people won't be able to say it's because of Didier.

 

[Arbitrary]

I'm not worried about the politics, i'm worried about Gabriella mental health.
I don't think what happened at the EC helped her. You can clearly see that she was about to break in the kiss and cry.
And now all eyes in France will be on them because of the recent scandal. Nelson Monfort even said that they have to win to restore figure skating image.

The good thing is if they win this time people won't be able to say it's because of Didier.

Loosing a 3rd grade tournament may present a challenge to Gabrielle's mental health?
Unlikely....

 

[noskates]

I think if I had just broken a long streak of wins I would probably be ready to break in the kiss and cry - and would most likely be in tears. And I assure you it wouldn't' be from a mental condition but from a major disappointment. These are seasoned veterans in competition who will no doubt be able to put all concerns out of their minds and lose themselves in their performances - like they always do.

 

[yuna13]

This is what i'm worried about :

GP:" We knew we weren't at 100% of what we normally can be. Given that fact, we did however we could. Since a year, I'm going through some difficult stuff in my life. I have been pushing myself, forcing myself (to overcome them). There came a moment when I got into mental and emotional overload. January was difficult. There's been a moment when I wasn't able to train anymore. I couldn't go on anymore. I wanted to, it wasn't a problem of motivation, but my body didn't respond anymore. I felt like crying all the time, I had anxieties, I felt exhausted. It was the first time that this happened to me so strongly, and it's rather hard to accept. But once I had accepted that this was happening, things calmed down a lot. And I had the blessing to have Guillaume and the coaches who were super understanding and who told me "You don't háve to train, you don't háve to go to the European Championships, nobody is forcing you". Just to have that conversation already helped me a lot. That's why the championships were really important emotionally, because we clearly almost didn't come."(thanks to Gotlev for the translation)

When you feel this way there is no magical button.
Also they worked with Beyer he was in charge of the 2011 JWC, imagine what she must be thinking right now.
Good thing is they took a break after Euros.

 

[DSQ]

Do they train at this Florida rink with Cipres? When the temporary FFSG board doesn't want or can finance foreign training conditions anymore?

AFAIK it isn’t solely the French Fed who pays for their training in Canada.

 

[theharleyquinn]

Papadakis/Cizeron have maintained a healthy amount of distance from Didier and their federation over the past few years. I think they'll be fine if they skate well. The problem at Europeans, whether people agree with the result or not, was that they didn't skate well.

 

[Step Sequence4]

If they skate their best, or near it, they should win by a lot. No matter the politics with the French fed. I hope they do.