While I'm not exactly a fan of the "body of work" argument - would your suggestion of 'limiting' the body of work scope have changed any of the recent instances of a skater getting on a Worlds team? based on what I remember the only time in the last 2 Olympic cycles that in ladies the top 2-3 skaters weren't sent to Olympics/Worlds was Sochi, while I thought it was wrong to switch out Mirai for Ashley based on your suggestion Ashley still would have qualified to both teams over Mirai.
2020-21 US Women's Figure Skating
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While I'm not exactly a fan of the "body of work" argument - would your suggestion of 'limiting' the body of work scope have changed any of the recent instances of a skater getting on a Worlds team? based on what I remember the only time in the last 2 Olympic cycles that in ladies the top 2-3 skaters weren't sent to Olympics/Worlds was Sochi, while I thought it was wrong to switch out Mirai for Ashley based on your suggestion Ashley still would have qualified to both teams over Mirai.
Talent means very little if you can't deliver in competition.
Well, whatever the current criteria are, they threw Ross Miner out of the bag for the 2018 Olympics.
I'm saying that ONLY the last season's world champs + current season's results + nationals. Nothing else at all. So nationals can get tier 1, then tier 2 for current season's results, and then tier 3 for last season's world champs. Tier 2 can be used to judge when say bronze and 4th were very close, not close to a 10 point gap. Go to tier 3 when tier 2 is a tie. Not just drop people who finished on the podium altogether, and the silver medal at that. It's silly to me to say someone wouldn't want to peak towards the end of the season in an Olympic year. And if you got nervous at Nationals, what exact faith can be put into you at a much, much bigger event than that?
Well, if they want, they can drop the tier criteria altogether, and use 4CCs as the deciding match. I'd prefer to see that over anything apart from worlds/junior worlds from the previous season.
I'd actually much prefer that so I can finally stop being told how the European Championships are more prestigious, when the fields at 4CCs are equally deep if not deeper. Since Russia using European Championships as a decider is one of the reasons to say that.
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I think that the actual procedure is closer to what you propose than you are crediting. Yes, Ross Miner won our hearts by his beautiful LP at 2018 Nationals. (Miner got 6th in the SP and 2nd in the LP, second overall, compared to Adam Rippon's 2nd in the SP and 4th in the LP.) On the other hand, at the contentious 2014 Olympic choice between Mirai and Ashley, Mirai's only advantage was 3rd versus 4th at Nationals, while Ashley had a number of "second and third tier" points as well.
The language of the current weird year:.
This is necessarily skewed toward "body of work" because of the lack of more recent competitions (essentially no information from the last part of the 2019 season and the first part of the 2020-21 season). But in a more normal year we could easily, without really changing anything, designation criterion #1 as "Tier One," the next two or three criteria as "Tier Two," and the remainder "Tier Three." In fact, IIRC this language has actually been used in some past versions.
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Yes, and that's not how it should be. Nagasu was ahead by nearly 10 points. That is decisive. They should have gone to tiers 2 and 3 *only* if it had been 2-3 points, or even lower - so tier 1 all the way, unless there's literally a couple of GOE points or a UR call in it. Nagasu and Miner both tried to peak at nationals. Chucking that out of consideration is unfair to them.
Looking at the criteria you linked, I could ask "why did they move to tiers 2 and 3, when they say Nationals has more priority, and the margin was so decisive?". What is the reason? There's a large bit of subjectivity in a lot of what they've said here "which can include performance data, placement, and competitive depth of field", too.
I'm fairly certain that Nagasu not going to worlds the season before is what hurt her, since that was a tier 1 criteria at that point. So there was a tier 1 tie, and they had to move to the lower tiers. In what I propose, there cannot be a tier 1 tie, there's only one tier 1 criteria.
ETA: But again, using 4CCs as the decider would be best. Canada already did that for their men's world spot last season.
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Karen Chen has been getting back into it and delivering quite well though? I think she deserved 4th at the past Four Continents and 2nd at Skate America. She does still need to show some more consistency, but there's reputation judging holding her back at the moment too. She only had a small underrotation on the 3Lutz+3Toe at Skate America (at Four Continents it was clean) and then one popped jump in the LP, which isn't worse than the mistakes Bradie/Mariah made, and her overall quality is better than them.
Mariah in particular is very overrated at the moment - her jumps are low and the 3Toe combo is always scratchy, she's slower across the ice, the transitions and skating skills are nothing special, and her body form and musicality and performance quality lack star quality. With that huge mistake she had on her last 3Lutz at Skate America, she could have been down in 4th overall, if the judging wanted to go that way. She's a bit nicer to watch than Bradie still, but Bradie has an edge on the transitions and jump difficulty. In terms of maximum scoring potential looking towards the Olympic season, Mariah is really only the 5th best USA lady right now (assuming Alysa Liu can get some semblance of her 3Axel back).
Karen Chen + Audrey Shin for the 2021 Worlds team, let's go!
Karen was nice in Skate America this year and it was good to see her put out 2 decent programs at 1 competition, but she struggles to consistently deliver well in a competition across 2 programs, whereas Bradie and Mariah are pretty consistent at delivering mostly clean programs. And its not like Karen is whipping out more difficult technical content than Bradie or Mariah - in reality they are doing about the same content - actually going off Skate America Bradie's BV is about 7-8 points more than Karen and Mariah - Mariah and Karen's TES BV was separated by about 1 point.
Mariah may not deliver the most stellar technical programs, but I disagree with you that she lacks star-ability in her performances (though this is a subjective aspect of figure skating), once her programs have some miles on them she's generally delivering something spectacular, because I feel you can tell she's enjoying what she's doing on the ice and that draws in people even if she's not doing triple-triple's. I have criticized that her performances are a bit one-note range in that they all rely on her smiley, bubbly personality, but she scores well with them.
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I'd have to agree with him that Karen Chen is being held down currently. I disagree with a lot the URs given to her. Her jump quality generally is higher than Tennell's and Bell's, as are the spins. That really would translate to higher TES than those two - if she's scored as she should be on those elements. The layback spin, 2A, and 3Lz are currently the best in the world. Her 3A potential is greater than either of those two as well. PCS to her without a doubt.
For Tennell, if she brings back the +3Lo combo and does a better SP, she's ahead of Bell for me too. As such I had her off the podium at Skate America. For me it was 1. Shin 2. Chen 3. Bell.
She is enjoying herself, but she's also enjoying herself doing Hallelujah. Always smiling.
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Karen URs her jumps a lot. All technical panels see it. Domestic panels, international panels. She might be your favorite, but that doesn't change reality. It terms of international scores Bradie and Mariah are far ahead of the other US ladies, whether you agree or not the US is smart to promote the two skaters who consistently score well. Karen has been given many chances to compete internationally but, her URs always keep her scores low. Perhaps that will change this year, but I think Audrey and, specifically, Amber are more likely to challenge for a top spot. Not Karen.
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Would also add her 3Lo is great and her +eu3S is a great 3-3 when attempted and landed. While the 3Lz3T is often UR (or landed on the q), we have to keep in mind she’s one of the only ladies trying to do a proper 3Lz3T. Using all of her strength in her legs, gets huge spring with counter rotation (the defining characteristic of a Lutz). Bradie and Mariah may “do” 3Lz3T but it’s not with proper technique and not nearly as difficult as what Karen is attempting to do with her 3Lz3T.
I hope to see her 3A soon. I doubt it’s ready but I’d like to see the progress, somehow.
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Agreed. Karen needs to improve her rotation and it seems some people keep consistently they disagree with UR calls simply because they are enamoured with the quality of her skating. It doesn’t do her any good to look past her URs or to hold back other skaters who are actually getting the job done.
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No, people disagree with the calls because her jumps tend to be more around than what the sheet says. Too often she gets dinged for underrotations that are within the allowed amount, because the callers are not actually looking at the rotation closely, they just see some turn on the landing and automatically think that means it was too short. It remains one of the most poorly taught and standardized aspects of judging, how many of these callers have little ability to distinguish where exactly the rotation should be considered as starting, and where exactly the landing point and 1/4 turn marker is in relation.
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I think you have answered your own question.
I think it is just human natiure that when you put someone in charge of something (like the USFSA selection committee) then that someone wants to do something, or at least consider doing something, not just sit there like a bump on a log. For one thing, the selection committee seems to be more impressed with placements thatn with CoP points. Winning the gold medal is important, how much you win by is not taken into account as strongly.
More generally, the parent committee of the selection committe is changed with "sending the strongest possible tweam to worlds." "Strongest possible" is usually interpretted as meaning, which skaters do the committee member feel will have the best changce of bringing home a medal (this is actually in the official charge to the committee). Again, I think it is human nature for a person to trust his own "feelings" than to go by mere points.
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Or a spray as Karen tends to land on her +3T.
@Mathman yes, I know that the "answer" to my question is that there is subjectivity. I wrote that paragraph like that on purpose, not as an own goal. It's why I want there to be *less* subjectivity, with clear preference given to nationals.
I do not see how they or anyone thought someone who finished 6th at worlds the season before and off the podium at nationals was a strong contender for an Olympic medal. And turns out I was right.
The team bronze would have been just as guaranteed in Sochi if they'd sent Gold for the SP, much like if they'd sent Chen for the LP in Pyeongchang, too.
This criteria will favor seniority and "stories" in the name of "experience". Experience is pointless if you're blowing a big competition before the Olympics and someone else is peaking.
I'll drop it though, I've made the point enough times. An Olympic selection committee making stupid decisions and a sports fed crying about how no one takes their sport seriously while repeatedly turning it into a tacky farce is beyond the scope of my worries.
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Ashley was definitely the right call to make for 2014. She had been clearly outskating Nagasu everywhere for 3 years in a row and was the favorite heading into Nationals. The amount of pressure on her was much more and Nagasu didn't show she could potentially score higher with her Nationals performance: the programs were too simple and her overall skating too watered down, and still having questionable jump landings.
The issue with 2014 was that I think it was the first time the US used the body of work argument vs. Nationals placement, the only other time prior to 2013-2014 season that I can think they didn't go by Nationals was in 2006 when they put in Michelle Kwan over Emily Hughes but that didn't work out for them and Michelle Kwan had a much better track record than Wagner did.
There have been numerous occasions over the years when a skater who withdrew from Nationals was assigned to that year's world or Olympic team.
Off the top of my head, regarding Olympics: Todd Eldredge in 1992, Nancy Kerrigan in 1994, Meno and Sand in 1998.
What was new in 2014 was sending someone who did compete at Nationals and finished behind another skater who could have been chosen.
Off the top of my head, regarding Olympics: Todd Eldredge in 1992, Nancy Kerrigan in 1994, Meno and Sand in 1998.
What was new in 2014 was sending someone who did compete at Nationals and finished behind another skater who could have been chosen.
Lu Chen's Butterfly Lovers at 1998 Nagano Olympics.
Karen's Butterfly Lovers at 2020 ISP Points Challenge.
Full Butterfly Lovers violin concerto by Chinese violinist Wen Wei. The outdoor concert is a beauty, the music, the musician, and the surrounding.
Hope Karen keep it for the Beijing Olympics. The music and story is known by "every" Chinese and it'll be a tribute to Lu Chen.
Karen's Butterfly Lovers at 2020 ISP Points Challenge.
Full Butterfly Lovers violin concerto by Chinese violinist Wen Wei. The outdoor concert is a beauty, the music, the musician, and the surrounding.
Hope Karen keep it for the Beijing Olympics. The music and story is known by "every" Chinese and it'll be a tribute to Lu Chen.
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