Who do you send as the second U.S. ladies’ skater to Worlds?

[insecureedge]

Per the change after 2018 OWG to OWG qualification:

If the 2021 Worlds placements for the two U.S. ladies were to add up to no more than 13 (e.g., Bradie in fifth and Karen in eighth), then they would earn only *two* slots at 2022 OWG -- plus they also would earn the opportunity for a different U.S. lady (not Bradie or Karen) to compete at 2021 Nebelhorn in hopes of earning a third OWG slot there.

Where are you getting this information from? The governing document is the ISU's "Qualification Systems for the XXIV Olympic Winter Games 2022", available at their Olympics 2022 page https://www.isu.org/figure-skating/events/olympic-winter-games/fsk-beijing-2022 with the link to the file at https://www.isu.org/docman-document...tion-systems-3/22994-figure-skating-v1-0/file. That pdf makes it seem that 13 is indeed the magic number for 3 quota spots, with no need for the extra qualifying event. Was there another announcement that changed this?

 

[Blades of Passion]

Karen easily deserved to be 2nd at Nationals. With an International judging panel, she would have been, and there was barely any difference as it stands. It's too bad we now have to sit through a sea of people claiming Amber was robbed (99% of whom would have a reversed opinion, if a single judge had slightly modified their scores), instead of focusing on supporting the more talented skater who DESERVES her spot. Karen Chen has always beaten Amber, and she's showing this level after a break and intense college load, while Amber has been only trying to skate. Who is more likely to improve most in this next year, when Karen is actually completely focused on building to the Olympics?

The other irritating thing is the amount of fact twisting that's going on with regards to Amber's 3Axel. She has never done it successfully in competition (hasn't even got close to rotating it!) and in practice it's usually underrotated and literally never better than 'q' from all the times I've seen. So no, she does not really have a 3Axel, any more than other competitors like Karen, who has also been able to land underrotated attempts in practice. As we saw in the SP, it only hurt Amber's score (to be more specific, it hurt her Technical score, but people trying to hype her up because of that jump increased her PCS in the overall competition by an unfair amount).

 

[ice coverage]

Where are you getting this information from? The governing document is the ISU's "Qualification Systems for the XXIV Olympic Winter Games 2022", available at their Olympics 2022 page https://www.isu.org/figure-skating/events/olympic-winter-games/fsk-beijing-2022 with the link to the file at https://www.isu.org/docman-document...tion-systems-3/22994-figure-skating-v1-0/file. That pdf makes it seem that 13 is indeed the magic number for 3 quota spots, with no need for the extra qualifying event. Was there another announcement that changed this?

It is *your* document that says on p. 3 in Section D.1, regarding "Qualification through the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021" (emphasis added):

"NOCs, who through their ISU Members Nation, have earned the necessary points according to Rule 378, paragraph 2b) and c) will have the right for two (2) or three (3) entries, only if, in addition, they had two (2) or respectively three (3) Skaters/Pairs/Couples qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance in the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021 (ISU Rule 400, paragraph 3)."​

And then further below on the same page, Section D.2, regarding "Qualification through the Senior International Qualification Competition designated by the ISU," says (again, emphasis added):

"Quota places will be allocated to NOCs based on their highest ranked athletes in the competition in the respective discipline. Only the following NOCs may be allocated a quota place:

• NOCs which have not earned any quota places in the respective discipline in D.1;
• NOCs which have earned the necessary points for two (2) or three (3) entries but did not have two (2) or respectively three (3) Skaters qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance at the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021. This quota place will be in addition to the quota place(s)that the NOC had earned in D.1. These ISU members are entitled to enter one (1) Skater in the qualifying event who had not qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance at the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021."​

---

Thank you! Which placements get this opportunity?

I think she's asking what placement does the Nebelhorn representative need to achieve to obtain the 3rd Olympic spot.

Thx, @rollerblade.

It would not matter whether a country is trying to get its first, second, or third spot via Nebelhorn.
Placements at Nebelhorn required to earn an Olympic spot:

- Top six men
- Top six ladies
- Top three pairs
- Top four dance couples​

---

... The other irritating thing is the amount of fact twisting that's going on with regards to Amber's 3Axel. She has never done it successfully in competition (hasn't even got close to rotating it!) ...

FWIW, Amber received credit for a successful triple axel in a virtual competition in the summer.
The tweet at the link below has a photo of the protocol showing that she received credit for full rotation.

From the U.S. Ladies thread (discussion took place in October):

The screencap is here so people can interpret it for themselves: https://twitter.com/FSIgstories/status/1293338026853228544

Coming from someone who saw the video submitted and full protocol sheet, her 3 axel was fully rotated and landed on one foot, no fall or step out.

 

[insecureedge]

"NOCs, who through their ISU Members Nation, have earned the necessary points according to Rule 378, paragraph 2b) and c) will have the right for two (2) or three (3) entries, only if, in addition, they had two (2) or respectively three (3) Skaters/Pairs/Couples qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance in the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021 (ISU Rule 400, paragraph 3)."

What you're missing is that for two skaters to get a total placement of 13, the two skaters would have to had qualified for the Free Skate in the first place, making anything about the Qualifying Competition in Paragraph D.2 moot. Placements that would work for 13 would be 1 and <= 12, 2 and <= 11, 3 and <= 10, 4 and <= 9, 5 and <= 8, 6 and 7. Obviously all these would have qualified for the free skate. Any skater not qualifying for the free skate would get 18, and therefore even if the other skater won a total placement of 13 would be mathematically impossible.

 

[ice coverage]

What you're missing is that for two skaters to get a total placement of 13, the two skaters would have to had qualified for the Free Skate in the first place, making anything about the Qualifying Competition in Paragraph D.2 moot. Placements that would work for 13 would be 1 and <= 12, 2 and <= 11, 3 and <= 10, 4 and <= 9, 5 and <= 8, 6 and <= 7. Obviously all these would have qualified for the free skate. Any skater not qualifying for the free skate would get 18, and therefore even if the other skater won a total placement of 13 would be mathematically impossible.

What you are overlooking is the word "respectively:"

"NOCs, who through their ISU Members Nation, have earned the necessary points according to Rule 378, paragraph 2b) and c) will have the right for two (2) or three (3) entries, only if, in addition, they had two (2) or respectively three (3) Skaters/Pairs/Couples qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance in the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021 (ISU Rule 400, paragraph 3)."​

To earn *three* OWG spots outright at Worlds, *three* skaters must qualify for the Worlds FS ... and of course, the sum of the placement points from the federation's top two skaters overall must be thirteen or below.

*Two* ladies qualifying for the Worlds FS would mean that the maximum number of OWG spots that they could earn *outright* at Worlds is *two.*
As I explained above, if the sum of their placement points is thirteen or below, their federation *also* would earn the chance to try to earn a third spot at Nebelhorn.

 

[Blades of Passion]

FWIW, Amber received credit for a successful triple axel in a virtual competition in the summer.

Aka, not an actual competition, just a filmed practice session. There's no way to tell if the call was correct either, they didn't share the video. The couple "clean" ones she claimed to do and actually posted video of were short, and I've never seen her do it better than 'q'.

 

[insecureedge]

What you are overlooking is the word "respectively:"

"NOCs, who through their ISU Members Nation, have earned the necessary points according to Rule 378, paragraph 2b) and c) will have the right for two (2) or three (3) entries, only if, in addition, they had two (2) or respectively three (3) Skaters/Pairs/Couples qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance in the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021 (ISU Rule 400, paragraph 3)."​

*Two* ladies qualifying for the Worlds FS means that they are able to earn a maximum of only *two* spots *outright* for OWG.
As I explained above, if the sum of their placement points is thirteen or below, their federation *also* earns the chance to try to earn a third spot at Nebelhorn.

To earn *three* OWG spots outright, *three* skaters must qualify for the Worlds FS ... and of course, the sum of the placement points from the top two skaters must be thirteen or below.

You are misinterpreting what the document is saying. An example of the situation that paragraph is referring to would be if a country had 3 skaters/teams at Worlds, with the top two earning a total placement of <= 13, but the third skater/team not qualifying for the free skate. In that situation, even though the top two met the requirement of <= 13, they are only "guaranteed" 2 spots, but could "win" back the third at the Qualifying Competition. Another example would be if a country had 2 skaters/teams at worlds, with the top skater winning and the other not qualifying for 1+18=19 points, which would normally be good enough to earn 2 spots but only "guarantees" 1 spot because of the lower finisher.

Again, mathematically, for 2 skaters/teams, it is impossible to meet criteria 1) total placement <= 13 and yet for 2) both skaters/teams not qualifying for the free skate to be true.

For anyone else reading, the magic number for a 2 skater/team squad to earn 3 spots for their country is a total placement less than or equal to 13.

 

[ice coverage]

You are misinterpreting what the document is saying. An example of the situation that paragraph is referring to would be if a country had 3 skaters/teams at Worlds, with the top two earning a total placement of <= 13, but the third skater/team not qualifying for the free skate. In that situation, even though the top two met the requirement of <= 13, they are only "guaranteed" 2 spots, but could "win" back the third at the Qualifying Competition. Another example would be if a country had 2 skaters/teams at worlds, with the top skater winning and the other not qualifying for 1+18=19 points, which would normally be good enough to earn 2 spots but only "guarantees" 1 spot because of the lower finisher.

Again, mathematically, for 2 skaters/teams, it is impossible to meet criteria 1) total placement <= 13 and yet for 2) both skaters/teams not qualifying for the free skate to be true.

For anyone else reading, the magic number for a 2 skater/team squad to earn 3 spots for their country is a total placement less than or equal to 13.

I do not agree with your misinterpretation.
Others can believe whatever they want, but I believe that you are misleading them.
I hope that others will read the original ISU document.

I will not waste time on further discussion.

ETA:

From p. 109 of the Minutes of the 2018 ISU Congress (emphasis added):

"Proposal No. 211 made by Single & Pair Skating and Ice Dance Technical Committees
Rule 400, para 3 and 4 - Entries to the Olympic Winter Games
Fabio Bianchetti, Chair Single & Pair Skating Technical Committee, spoke to this proposal.
Mona Adolfsen, NOR, John Coughlin and Alper Uçar, Athletes Commission and Leanna Caron, CAN, supported the proposal.
Several clarifications were requested and comments made (Katarina Henriksson SWE, Sergey Sviridov RUS, Boris Chait ISR, Igor Lukanin AZE, Artem Kniazev UZB). Peter Lynch, AUS, was not in favour of the proposal. Alexander Lakernik and Fabio Bianchetti explained that the proposal aims at having the best skaters at the OWG. If a country achieves enough points in the previous World Championships for two or three skaters, they have direct entries only if the country had the same number of skaters qualified in the Free Skating at the previous Worlds. If the country did not have as many, it can send a skater who did not skate in the FS in the Worlds to the qualifying competition. The proposal does not affect the right of other countries to send skaters to the qualifying event.

The proposal was Accepted. (Vote: Yes 52, No 13, Abs. 1)"

https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/rules-regulations/isu-congresses/24245-full-isu-congress-2018-minutes-16042019-1/file

 

[insecureedge]

I do not agree with your misinterpretation.
Others can believe whatever they want, but I believe that you are misleading them.
I hope that others will read the original ISU document.

I will not waste time on further discussion.

Good, because you're simply wrong in this case. I challenge you or anyone else to find any other document or poster of authority that supports your position.

Back to the thread's main topic, while I don't normally agree with Blades of Passion, I like the points they make. For everyone saying that they would go by National results alone, the fact is that body of work has been the criteria for post-nationals (4CC, Worlds, and Olympics) competitions for years, and bemoaning that isn't going to change anything. For those suggesting a post-nationals skate-off, the USFSA has traditionally announced the team fairly shortly after the conclusion of nationals and has never used 4CC or another competition as a tiebreaker (plus given the current coronavirus situation, it would be impossible). For those citing Karen's lower ISU ranking, that discrepancy is explained by her absence from competing while in school. The USFSA does place some emphasis on consistency, and that definitely hurts Amber. All in all, for me, choosing either Amber or Karen would have been fair, though I do think Amber is a higher risk of melting down (remember Cup of China from a few years ago?), and the triple axel does not seem stable enough to count on it. For Karen, the under-rotations are definitely going to hurt.

 

[ice coverage]

... I challenge you or anyone else to find any other document or poster of authority that supports your position.

Challenge accepted.
Repeating what I edited into my previous post above:

From p. 109 of the Minutes of the 2018 ISU Congress (emphasis added):

"Proposal No. 211 made by Single & Pair Skating and Ice Dance Technical Committees
Rule 400, para 3 and 4 - Entries to the Olympic Winter Games
Fabio Bianchetti, Chair Single & Pair Skating Technical Committee, spoke to this proposal.
Mona Adolfsen, NOR, John Coughlin and Alper Uçar, Athletes Commission and Leanna Caron, CAN, supported the proposal.
Several clarifications were requested and comments made (Katarina Henriksson SWE, Sergey Sviridov RUS, Boris Chait ISR, Igor Lukanin AZE, Artem Kniazev UZB). Peter Lynch, AUS, was not in favour of the proposal. Alexander Lakernik and Fabio Bianchetti explained that the proposal aims at having the best skaters at the OWG. If a country achieves enough points in the previous World Championships for two or three skaters, they have direct entries only if the country had the same number of skaters qualified in the Free Skating at the previous Worlds. If the country did not have as many, it can send a skater who did not skate in the FS in the Worlds to the qualifying competition. The proposal does not affect the right of other countries to send skaters to the qualifying event.

The proposal was Accepted. (Vote: Yes 52, No 13, Abs. 1)"

https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/rule...ull-isu-congress-2018-minutes-16042019-1/file​

The sentence in bold about "direct entries" completely supports my position.
As I said above:
To earn *three* OWG spots outright at Worlds, *three* skaters must qualify for the Worlds FS ... and of course, the sum of the placement points from the federation's top two skaters overall must be thirteen or below.

 

[ManyCairns]

Good, because you're simply wrong in this case. I challenge you or anyone else to find any other document or poster of authority that supports your position.

Back to the thread's main topic, while I don't normally agree with Blades of Passion, I like the points they make. For everyone saying that they would go by National results alone, the fact is that body of work has been the criteria for post-nationals (4CC, Worlds, and Olympics) competitions for years, and bemoaning that isn't going to change anything. For those suggesting a post-nationals skate-off, the USFSA has traditionally announced the team fairly shortly after the conclusion of nationals and has never used 4CC or another competition as a tiebreaker (plus given the current coronavirus situation, it would be impossible). For those citing Karen's lower ISU ranking, that discrepancy is explained by her absence from competing while in school. The USFSA does place some emphasis on consistency, and that definitely hurts Amber. All in all, for me, choosing either Amber or Karen would have been fair, though I do think Amber is a higher risk of melting down (remember Cup of China from a few years ago?), and the triple axel does not seem stable enough to count on it. For Karen, the under-rotations are definitely going to hurt.

Honestly, I don't feel really strongly about it, even though for me the choice would be Amber, as I've said. With Karen, unless something changes re: her UR calls, and landing a 3-3, one can pretty solidly predict where she'll place. With Amber, there's just the chance she'll land the 3A, and continue getting it together with two good performances, and have a breakout placement. And you could argue that since Amber finished higher than Karen in the most recent comp, she's the one with the current momentum. The margin of victory is not terribly persuasive to me -- second is second, and third is third. But if Karen ends up placing well at the Worlds we probably won't have anyway, I'll be thrilled. And she is a lovely, lovely lyrical skater that I enjoy watching and has many incredible qualities. As a drop in Blades' sea of people -- hey, at least we have something to talk about re: skating in these COVID times!

 

[insecureedge]

Challenge accepted.
Repeating what I edited into my previous post above:

From p. 109 of the Minutes of the 2018 ISU Congress (emphasis added):​

​

"Proposal No. 211 made by Single & Pair Skating and Ice Dance Technical Committees​

Rule 400, para 3 and 4 - Entries to the Olympic Winter Games​

Fabio Bianchetti, Chair Single & Pair Skating Technical Committee, spoke to this proposal.​

Mona Adolfsen, NOR, John Coughlin and Alper Uçar, Athletes Commission and Leanna Caron, CAN, supported the proposal.​

Several clarifications were requested and comments made (Katarina Henriksson SWE, Sergey Sviridov RUS, Boris Chait ISR, Igor Lukanin AZE, Artem Kniazev UZB). Peter Lynch, AUS, was not in favour of the proposal. Alexander Lakernik and Fabio Bianchetti explained that the proposal aims at having the best skaters at the OWG. If a country achieves enough points in the previous World Championships for two or three skaters, they have direct entries only if the country had the same number of skaters qualified in the Free Skating at the previous Worlds. If the country did not have as many, it can send a skater who did not skate in the FS in the Worlds to the qualifying competition. The proposal does not affect the right of other countries to send skaters to the qualifying event.​

​

The proposal was Accepted. (Vote: Yes 52, No 13, Abs. 1)"​

​

https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/rule...ull-isu-congress-2018-minutes-16042019-1/file​

The sentence in bold about "direct entries" completely supports my position.

I thought you said, "I will not waste time on further discussion"? In any event, your bolded statement is reflected in the current document, and actually gives the reasoning of not allowing the situation I outlined with 1-2 strong skaters/teams qualifying 2-3 spots regardless of the quality of the low(er) finishers. For example, it meant that while Javier Fernandez was able to qualify 2 spots for Spain based on his 4th place finish at the 2017 Worlds despite the other (Javier Raya at 27th) not making the free skate because 4+18=22<28 for 2 spots for the 2018 Olympics, that for this Olympics they would only have the direct entry for 1 because of the low finisher. It logically doesn't apply when 2 skaters are able to meet a total placement of less than 13 because both skaters by necessity will have made the free skate.

 

[ice coverage]

I thought you said, "I will not waste time on further discussion"? ...

Could not resist your challenge.
Plus I cannot in good conscience let your misinterpretation go unchallenged ... because it is misleading to others.

Based on the two ISU documents regarding 2022 Olympics, I stand by what I already have said:

To earn *three* 2022 OWG spots outright at Worlds, *three* skaters must qualify for the Worlds FS ... and of course, the sum of the placement points from the federation's top two skaters overall must be thirteen or below.​

What is in the two ISU documents is in complete alignment with what I have said.
Nothing in the two ISU documents is out of alignment with what I have said.

Repeating what the Minutes of the 2018 Congress say re Olympic spots:

"If a country achieves enough points in the previous World Championships for two or three skaters, they have direct entries only if the country had the same number of skaters qualified in the Free Skating at the previous Worlds."​

The U.S. has only two Ladies entries at 2021 Worlds. The maximum number of "direct entries" to 2022 OWG that the two U.S. ladies can earn via 2021 Worlds therefore is *two.*
A third entry could be earned only at Nebelhorn (and only by a different U.S. lady).

The two ISU documents do not contain any basis for your misinterpretation re the Bradie/Karen scenario of a total of thirteen placement points or fewer at 2021 Worlds.
It is only in your imagination that the rules stated by the ISU do not apply to the Bradie/Karen scenario.

 

[insecureedge]

Could not resist your challenge.
Plus I cannot in good conscience let your misinterpretation go unchallenged ... because it is misleading to others.

I concede. You are correct. While a total placement of 13 is necessary to even have the possibility of 3 spots, it is not sufficient. I looked at a thread from FSU, and Marco provides the following summary (post #21), with some clarifying edits made:

OK that means if a country qualifies for 3 skaters at 2021 Worlds for next Olympics -

• with 3 skaters that all made the free skate, then nothing is changed;
• with just 2 skaters (regardless of whether 2 or 3 skaters competed), then essentially only 2 are guaranteed and the country gets to send 1 skater to Nebelhorn to fight and activate the final spot for the Olympics;
• with just 1 skater that placed top 2, then essentially only 1 is guaranteed and the country gets to send 1 skater to Nebelhorn to fight and activate the other spot for the Olympics.

If a country qualifies for 2 skaters at 2021 Worlds for next Worlds / Olympics -

• with 2 skaters that all made the free skate, then nothing is changed;
• with just 1 skater (regardless of whether 1 or 2 or 3 skaters competed), then essentially only 1 are guaranteed and the country gets to send 1 skater to Nebelhorn to fight and activate the final spot for the Olympics.

Spots are still earned for the country at either Worlds or Nebelhorn. Skaters who earned those spots can be totally different to those skaters who are ultimately sent as long as they make the required minimums. The one (1) Skater in the qualifying event must be a skater who had not qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance at the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021.

Moderators, could the posts with wrong info be deleted?

 

[alexocfp]

Are you for real? No. Russia doesn’t get a special age dispensation. If Switzerland or Italy or whoever has the best skater in say 2030 they shouldn’t get one either. And people shouldn’t be skating when seriously ill or injured. I don’t care who they are. Hanyu shouldn’t have been skating in 2014 after that crash in practice either. Apparently you think it is an admirable trait to “risk your health AND the health of everyone around you.” I 1000% disagree. No one has the right to risk the health of everyone around them. Don’t care who they are.

You may vehemently disagree, but Anna is for real, and 1000% agrees with me. So I got a good ally in this argument. And the viewers are also glad to have her on this side of the fence too.

It’s an easy decision. The gold and the glory on one hand, and criticism on the other hand.

I will take the gold and the glory please.

 

[TallyT]

You may vehemently disagree, but Anna is for real, and 1000% agrees with me. So I got a good ally in this argument. And the viewers are also glad to have her on this side of the fence too.

It’s an easy decision. The gold and the glory on one hand, and criticism on the other hand.

I will take the gold and the glory please.

For chrissake, what the hell is Shcherbakova doing being discussed here? But - since you insist on derailing - of course she went to the competition. She and her fellow used-to-be-the-3A are already looking at quite probably being passed and because of world circumstances out of her control as well as her coach's methodology, before she even has a chance for one of the big golden prizes. If she wants to risk other people's health for her own shot at small glory, so be it. Elite sports stars - as Australia can see right now too well - tend to be that way.

Oh, and she's nowhere near a legend, not even near to Zagitova or Bauil level, let alone Yuna Kim or Michelle Kwan. Now unless she chooses to apply for US citizenship, can you take her back to the threads she belongs on?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

For everyone saying that they would go by National results alone, the fact is that body of work has been the criteria for post-nationals (4CC, Worlds, and Olympics) competitions for years, and bemoaning that isn't going to change anything.

Based on Nationals placement, Amber should have the spot. Based on body of work, Mariah should have the spot. The USFSA picked a skater who wasn't the most deserving on either.

 

[DreamSkates]

I understand the choice of Chen based on her previous accomplishments. Perhaps if Glenn had landed a solid 3A in the short and long, that would be have convinced the USFSA to send her to worlds instead of Chen.
Mariah was just too unsteady in her programs, too many mistakes and not much confidence this year. Sadly. Hope she rebounds next year as she would likely be strongly considered for the Olympic team if she gets to silver medal position, or maybe bronze.

 

[NAOTMAA]

Mariah was out of the running by virtue of finishing 5th. If she was 4th she probably would have been picked. Besides she was wildly inconsistent in very event she skated in this season. Most importantly she showed no sign whatsoever of improving as the season went on (a sharp contrast to the 4 ladies who finished ahead of her who got better with every competition). Her bad performance at nationals was no fluke and that killed her worlds chances more then anything.

And yes Amber finished 2nd over Karen. But it was less then two points! It was hardly a convincing beating. She also has by far (without question!) the weakest body of work of all the top 5 finishers. She's actually really lucky the USFSA made her the 1st alternate. They could have easily given her the Ross treatment and made Mariah the 1st alternate instead despite her 5th place.

Karen for all her own issues is simply a more stable choice. Besides she did finish 2nd in the free skate at SA and showed a improvement from that at nationals. She looks like she's going up. That combined with being a former national champion and once top 4 at worlds is what made her the obvious choice.

 

[TallyT]

Based on Nationals placement, Amber should have the spot. Based on body of work, Mariah should have the spot. The USFSA picked a skater who wasn't the most deserving on either.

But does Amber have the body of work? Mariah Bell definitely didn't have the Nats results.

Or (this is sport after all) maybe it's politics in the end, and we'll never know. Anyway, I like Karen so I will cheer for her.