2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Shayuki]

Well, the Russian younger age nationals are starting today and there are younger and older categories within.

From the older category, I'd say Sofia Titova, Anastasia Marasanova, Maria Paramanova, Daria Sadkova etc. are quite interesting and there are several others like LIubov Rubtsova that I could note, even though this isn't necessarily the strongest age group ever. Although that could still change.


As for the younger category, now here there's a ton of names I recognize. Elena Kostyleva and Alena Krivonosova being some of my favorites, but there's also the CSKA girls Prineva and Sarimsakova for Moscow. For other regions, Taisia Korobitsina is the obvious one, she was considered the top skater for 2010 but I'm not sure whether that still is the case.... Might as well mention Riana Kadyrova as she's already had millions of Youtube views I'm sure, although I doubt she'll place all that high.

 

[Shayuki]

Eh, that's not quite true. If she doesn't land either she'll be in the 150-160 in the FS (probably 155 max). And she does sometimes get called for under-rotating her 3Lo.

And that will be beaten by Sasha and Rika and is catchable (with clean skates) by Kaori, Liza T, and Bradie.

Anna needs to land at least one to be 160 (and rotate the other) and be clean everywhere else.

Hm, are you not overestimating their scoring potential slightly? They've only ever hit such scores at World Team Trophy, which had massively unrealistic and hyperinflated scoring.

Shcherbakova should be at around 155 in the scenario I suggested, well clear of the scoring potential of anyone except Rika and Sasha.

 

[chasingneverland]

Hm, are you not overestimating their scoring potential slightly? They've only ever hit such scores at World Team Trophy, which had massively unrealistic and hyperinflated scoring.

Yeah, and Anna and Sasha have only landed their layouts cleanly once.

And no, Kaori got almost the same score as she got at the World Team Trophy as she got at World's. (Like virtually identically - there's less than a point difference.) Since then Kaori has upgraded to a 3Lz in the SP. Bradie also scored about the same as she got at the World Team Trophy as she got at 4CCs the next year (and she wasn't completely clean at 4CCs).

 

[chasingneverland]

I think Anna with only 2 quads has a higher BV than Rika.

It's close. Depends what Rika does. Rika has a 3A in the SP and a 3A (or two) and 4S in the FS.

Edit: also my original post was don't forget about Anna.

 

[Nogagolova]

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[Shayuki]

It's close. Depends what Rika does. Rika has a 3A in the SP and a 3A (or two) and 4S in the FS.

And the rest of the layout?

 

[chasingneverland]

And the rest of the layout?

Rika has her 3Lz back, depends on if she decides to do it.

Basically Rika's layout is: 4S, 3A, 3Lz, 3A-2T and then varies based on how that goes. She can (and has) also landed a 3F-3T-2T, a 3F-3T, 3F-eu-3S, and a 3Lo - and she varies this based on how her opening goes and what she needs to win. She pretty much always gets 7 triples in no matter how the 4S/3As go.

Her SP layout is: 3A, 3F-3T // 3Lz

 

[Shayuki]

Rika has her 3Lz back, depends on if she decides to do it.

That's not the only thing though, Shcherbakova tends to gain huge advantages since her layout's optimized, as is Trusova's of course. Valieva's for example is not, and she loses several points off that even beyond the quads or 3As. Kihira's also was not the last I checked.

 

[chasingneverland]

That's not the only thing though, Shcherbakova tends to gain huge advantages since her layout's optimized, as is Trusova's of course. Valieva's for example is not, and she loses several points off that even beyond the quads or 3As. Kihira's also was not the last I checked.

Kamila's is being improved.

And Rika's isn't yet because she tends not to do her 3Lz or her second 3A when she doesn't need them. She chose not to do them both at Nationals for instance. And that tends to be the case with her.

 

[chasingneverland]

yes I took that 3A Rika does in her SP into account. Anna with only 2 quads would still have a higher BV (SP+FS combined) than Rika with one quad and three 3As.

Can you show me their calculated BVs?

 

[chasingneverland]

Shcherbakova should be at around 155 in the scenario I suggested, well clear of the scoring potential of anyone except Rika and Sasha.

A clean Kaori is around 150-155.
A clean Liza is around 150-155 as well.
A clean Bradie is around 145-150.

So not really well clear. And I said she'd be around 155 that's why they'd be threats if she didn't land either of them cleanly. (And only did 2 quads.)

 

[Shayuki]

A clean Kaori is around 150-155.
A clean Liza is around 150-155 as well.
A clean Bradie is around 145-150.

So not really well clear.

Tuktamysheva with 2 clean 3As, perhaps.

But especially that Kaori one's completely baseless, her PB's 147

 

[chasingneverland]

Tuktamysheva with 2 clean 3As, perhaps.

But especially that Kaori one's completely baseless, her PB's 147

Yeah but Japanese judges tend to actually be pretty close to international ones (unlike Russian ones). So around 150-155 (probably 153) is actually pretty accurate for a clean Kaori. Her NHK score is actually pretty accurate looking at how she scores internationally (153-154) when clean. She got a 146 at World's with a popped 3F (into a 1F) so only 6 triples - she didn't make it up anywhere - it was her second to last jump. So you give her the backloaded 3F - 7 points - and she's at 153.

 

[silveruskate]

For Anna and Sasha especially, because of that -Lo combo, having 2 different quads really matters for optimisation in the FS.

Sasha couldn't do a 4T at RusNats, but if you think of 4Lz-3T, 4Lz, 4T for a 3 quad layout, she was replacing the 4T for a 2nd 2A at RusNats. However, if she did two different quads, she would replace that first 4Lz with a 3F. The BV reduction is practically the same, no matter which quad you remove. So for Sasha when doing only 2 quads, 4Lz and 4T is better than 2 4Lzes.

And that's the problem against Anna when she does 4Lz and 4F. Two different quads is huge. It's completely different to when Anna was doing two 4Lzes. Even when Sasha does 4Lz-3T, 4Lz and 4T, the 2 4Lzes are comparable with 4Lz/4F, and Anna does 3F while Sasha does 4T. The BV difference is just 4.2 points + 0.5 for the 4Lz Vs 4F. When you consider PCS, spins and step sequence across both programs, Anna easily makes this up.

 

[Amei]

If Bradie will somehow beat Liza I will seriously be devastated. For me all Americans belong around the 10th place xd

Clean Bradie could beat Tuktamysheva if Tuktamysheva has repeat performances like the Cup final and channel 1 cup where Tuktamysheva has all those little errors on her landings. Bradie will have the advantage of being number 1 US lady whereas Tuktamysheva is Russia number 3.

 

[chasingneverland]

For Anna and Sasha especially, because of that -Lo combo, having 2 different quads really matters for optimisation in the FS.

Sasha couldn't do a 4T at RusNats, but if you think of 4Lz-3T, 4Lz, 4T for a 3 quad layout, she was replacing the 4T for a 2nd 2A at RusNats. However, if she did two different quads, she would replace that first 4Lz with a 3F. The BV reduction is practically the same, no matter which quad you remove. So for Sasha when doing only 2 quads, 4Lz and 4T is better than 2 4Lzes.

And that's the problem against Anna when she does 4Lz and 4F. Two different quads is huge. It's completely different to when Anna was doing two 4Lzes. Even when Sasha does 4Lz-3T, 4Lz and 4T, the 2 4Lzes are comparable with 4Lz/4F, and Anna does 3F while Sasha does 4T. The BV difference is just 4.2 points + 0.5 for the 4Lz Vs 4F. When you consider PCS, spins and step sequence across both programs, Anna easily makes this up.

Yeah, being able to do 2 different quads is where Anna has a buffer (basically Anna's 4F). It basically allows Anna to get replace the second 2A with a quad as well as her PCS and spins, which is why she can beat Sasha when they do the same number of quads. (Unless Sasha can stabilize her 3A in the SP.) (Although Sasha does also have a 4F - remains to be seen if she'll do it though)

 

[chasingneverland]

Clean Bradie could beat Tuktamysheva if Tuktamysheva has repeat performances like the Cup final and channel 1 cup where Tuktamysheva has all those little errors on her landings. Bradie will have the advantage of being number 1 US lady whereas Tuktamysheva is Russia number 3.

This. A clean Bradie can definitely beat Liza T if she's not clean. Even if both are clean there is only about a 5 point difference between the two. (Plus PCS/politics)

 

[silveruskate]

Yeah, being able to do 2 different quads is where Anna has a buffer (basically Anna's 4F). It basically allows Anna to get replace the second 2A with a quad as well as her PCS and spins, which is why she can beat Sasha when they do the same number of quads. (Unless Sasha can stabilize her 3A in the SP.) (Although Sasha does also have a 4F - remains to be seen if she'll do it though)

And the problem for Sasha is I think clean Anna with 2 different quads will beat clean Sasha with 3 quads. I should have added the GOE for 4T Vs 3F so 7 points, but even that is something I think Anna makes up.

The only saving grace for her is that we've only seen Russian judging so far, we won't know the true POE/GOE difference until we actually see it. But I worry about Sasha's morale if she finds out she needs 3 quads + 3A, or 4 quads to beat 2 quads.

 

[silveruskate]

Clean Bradie could beat Tuktamysheva if Tuktamysheva has repeat performances like the Cup final and channel 1 cup where Tuktamysheva has all those little errors on her landings. Bradie will have the advantage of being number 1 US lady whereas Tuktamysheva is Russia number 3.

I'm hopeful for Liza. She's competed way more than skaters of other nationalities. But it's frustrating the way she always steps out of at least one 3A! And that worries me most, because they look like nervous step-outs that don't even need to happen. With her optimised layouts she has the potential to score more than she's ever scored before, I really hope she does.

 

[chasingneverland]

Anna's combined score: 115.66
Rika's combined score: 111.13
You can replace any jump in Rika's FS with a 3Lz , Rika's BV (SP+FS combined) would still be lower than Anna's BV

Thanks!

That's still pretty close though. That's less than a 5 point difference..which was my point. Anna would need to be clean - they both do but people were saying Anna could fall on both her quads and she really can't.

This quote: "In a sense, Anna for example shouldn't need to land a single quad, even if she only attempts two. That essentially is the beauty of these layouts. Anna will still be jumping 7 triple jumps just like all the others, so the jumps that Anna would be replacing with her quads would be one 2A and one 2T or similar. So that still earns a TES advantage, even with falls."

I'm pretty sure that's closer than Anna and Aliona's tech differences and Aliona more than made that up (I could be wrong though). If Anna falls on her quads (even if she rotates them), that TES advantage is essentially gone (3 points is nothing - I'm taking into account the -2 for falling). Rika also has the highest PCS in the World (of the skaters who are there) - Anna should be close though. But Anna very well could be 5-7 points behind Rika going into the FS. (Yes, obviously Rika needs to be clean too but acting like Anna - and I LOVE Anna - can attempt two quads and fall on both and definitely still beat Rika is..wrong.)