2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[chasingneverland]

Well, I'd say Rika is pretty consistent with her 3A. She only had 5 3As with negative GOE and none of those were falls, they were just URs or very slight negative GOEs. And she attempted around 21. So she had a 76% success rate. That's pretty good. And she did have a great Japanese Nats FS so I wouldn't count her out of the discussion.

Now that we know Rika's layout, I am really wondering what Sasha, Anya and Liza will do. Will Anya do 3 quads? Will Sasha do 5? Will Sasha do 3A? Will Liza do a quad? If Rika goes clean, these three will also need to be at least close to clean to challenge her. Liza will need to be pristine clean - and she probably needs Rika to have a mistake even if, I think Sasha could still win if she fell on a quad - but that's only if she really goes for four or five and she has no URs or pops, Anya could probably still win with a step-out or UR but I'm not sure about a fall or a downgrade.

I would count Rika out at your own peril. Her BV is just so much higher than anyone who isn't Anna and Sasha and she has the PCS to match that. Also she's Japan's number 1.

- Anna's FS BV is a 81.88. (Although I think she'll add another quad - I think she'll do a 3 quad layout. For reference, her three quad program BV last year was a 88.08. She has only landed this layout cleanly once before and hasn't tried her three quad layout yet this season. Her 4Lz and 4F are pretty solid this year. I'm not sure if she'll go for a 4F+3T or a 4Lz+3T - probably whichever is more solid as the BVs are very similar. She may?? get called for her Lz edges but that's not overly likely. She might get an under-rotation call on her quads and has struggled a little bit on her +3Lo combo. She has struggled with pneumonia this year. She has good spins/step sequences and PCS. She's Russia's #1 - she'll have Fed support.)
- Sasha's FS BV is a 80.38. (Although I think she'll try to add another quad and a 3A in the SP. She hasn't landed a clean three quad layout yet this season - she also hasn't tried it yet. She does tend to struggle with consistency once she upgrades. She has yet to land her 3A in the SP cleanly. However, her 4Lz and 4T are solid this year. Predicting her layout is a little harder - I think she goes for two 4Lz's (4Lz+3T and 4Lz) and a backloaded 4T (4T+1Eu+3S) but I'm not sure haha. That would be a BV of an 85.00. She might?? get called on her F edge but that's also not overly likely (and if she does the suggested layout she won't do a F). She might get an under-rotation call on her quads and sometimes struggles on her +3Lo combo. She has been injured this year. She has decent enough spins/step sequences. Her PCS are solid (although not as good as Anna or Rika's but still very good). She's Russia's #2 - she'll have decent Fed support.)
- Rika's FS BV is a 76.04. (Although she does have a 3A (fairly solid) in the SP. She hasn't attempted this layout yet. She has landed her 4S once cleanly in competition. However, her 3A is actually really solid (for a 3A). She might get an under-rotation call on her quad or 3A. She hasn't been the most consistent in the past but is much much more consistent now. She has good spins/step sequences and PCS. She's Japan's #1 - she'll have Fed support.)
- Liza T's FS BV is a 67.57. (She does have a 3A (fairly solid but doesn't always land cleanly) in the SP. She has been training a 4T but has never landed it cleanly in competition. She's also said she won't upgrade. While she does have a three 3A's she tends to not land them cleanly, often stepping out. She also has an interesting layout..She'll struggle to get the spins/step sequences of especially Anna and Rika and won't get the PCS of any of the others. She has had COVID this year. Unlike all the others, she will not be skating in the last group in the SP. She's Russia's #3.)
- Bradie's FS BV is a 63.57. (She doesn't have the ultra-c elements of any of the prior skaters. She has been training a 3A and quads but I don't think we'll see them here. But unlike Liza, she (and the others) will be skating in the last group in the SP. She might under-rotate her 3Lo+3T combo among others but looks solid this year. She has good spins/step sequences. She's USA's #1 - she'll have Fed support.)
- Kaori's FS BV is a 62.23. (Like Bradie, she doesn't have the ultra-c elements of the others but also like Bradie she will have fed support. She has been training a 4T but has never landed it cleanly in competition and I don't think she'll try here. She might get a call on her Lz edge and doesn't always tend to be the most consistent. She has in the past popped or under-rotated her jumps despite being a powerful skater. However, she does look much better this year and brought back her 3Lz to the SP. She has good step sequences and spins. She's Japan's #2 - she'll have Fed support.)

I think Anna and Sasha both try for a three quad program. They can both win if they fall on a quad as long as they rotate everything. I also think Sasha goes for the 3A in the SP. Rika also has quite a buffer and can afford mistakes. Although, the mistakes will really matter between Anna, Sasha, and Rika for gold. (The're hard to catch even with falls for the rest of the field.) Liza's already said she won't upgrade and will instead try to get her current program more consistent - working on landings, spins, etc.

 

[flanker]

Well, I'd say Rika is pretty consistent with her 3A. She only had 5 3As with negative GOE and none of those were falls, they were just URs or very slight negative GOEs. And she attempted around 21. So she had a 76% success rate. That's pretty good. And she did have a great Japanese Nats FS so I wouldn't count her out of the discussion.

Now that we know Rika's layout, I am really wondering what Sasha, Anya and Liza will do. Will Anya do 3 quads? Will Sasha do 5? Will Sasha do 3A? Will Liza do a quad? If Rika goes clean, these three will also need to be at least close to clean to challenge her. Liza will need to be pristine clean - and she probably needs Rika to have a mistake even if, I think Sasha could still win if she fell on a quad - but that's only if she really goes for four or five and she has no URs or pops, Anya could probably still win with a step-out or UR but I'm not sure about a fall or a downgrade.

Rika's BV in free skate is still lower than Anna's and Sasha's with two quads. If we consider all elements on lvl4, the BV gets 75.71:

She has potential margin from the SP for about 4.5 point in BV (I'm too lazy to count it to tenths now as it's not so important). That would still put Rika's total BV below Anna with just two quads (BV 81.88, considering her layout from nationals). It would be slightly above Sasha with two quads (79.38), but Sasha will nearly surely add third quad so she will be above as well. Of course Anna will probably add third quad as well but she would still have a small margin even with just two quads (the magic of two different strong quads) and she can decide to play the safe note if the third quad won't be sure.

Of course those considerations work with the prequisite that all would skate clean, there is always possibility of anyone bombing the program .(which makes me nervous already ).

 

[Scott512]

Gubanova was definitely one of the first skaters in the jumping boom. I remember watching her doing 3Lz-3Lo when she was 11 or 12, which was quite unheard of at the time. I can't help but compare her to Alina in the same age group (maybe a year younger per ISU rules?), who was still jumping doubles at 11.

Unfortunately, she lost her -3Lo combos and had consistency issues by the time she was in her second junior season. Still, she definitely had grace, musicality, and skating skills, though I'd argue that Tarakanova's skating stills were even better, and she was a better jumper minus the wonky 3F. They're definitely different; Gubanova has the classic ice princess style, but Tarakanova has so much fire and passion, especially in her asylum SP which is still one of my favourites.

Definitely unheard of that Nastya was doing 3lz 3 lo at 11 or 12. Now girls are doing ultra jumps at 11 or 12.
Even know some people complain about how she was treated by the federation and in some instances the complaints are accurate Nastya G definitely had a couple years where she did not improve her technical game much and others passed her by.

And Color Nastya still has grace musicality and skating skills. But she lacks the technical prowess of the top skaters. I keep hoping she uses Liza T as a role model for figure skating. But I fear she will retire soon because on the Grand Prix level and on the challenger level there are too many girls for too few spots and Nastya was never the fed favorite like Stasya even though NG is a beautiful girl and beautiful skater with actual skating skills. Why hide her? What more proof do you need that when she had an SP to qualify for GP event the fed brushed her aside like she was nothing. Heck I don't even think she got a challenger that season as she hasn't had a challenger and skated outside of Russia since 2018. Crazy.

If Gubanova wants to compete for the next few years and since she hasn't had an international skating event since 2018 she can quickly move to another country from what I understand and I don't understand why she doesn't skate for Kazakhstan the way lilibet does. Lilbet was born in Russia and trains in
TT Russia but represents Kazakstan. That is brilliant strategically from her and her family. Nastya should do the same. Why not? She has nothing to lose accept her career. Nastya can still train in St Petersburg and represent another country. The precedent has been set by Lilbet.

 

[readernick]

Rika's BV in free skate is still lower than Anna's and Sasha's with two quads. If we consider all elements on lvl4, the BV gets 75.71:

She has potential margin from the SP for about 4.5 point in BV (I'm too lazy to count it to tenths now as it's not so important). That would still put Rika's total BV below Anna with just two quads (BV 81.88, considering her layout from nationals). It would be slightly above Sasha with two quads (79.38), but Sasha will nearly surely add third quad so she will be above as well. Of course Anna will probably add third quad as well but she would still have a small margin even with just two quads (the magic of two different strong quads) and she can decide to play the safe note if the third quad won't be sure.

Of course those considerations work with the prequisite that all would skate clean, there is always possibility of anyone bombing the program .(which makes me nervous already ).

It really isn't important, but that isn't Rika's planned content. She wouldn't choose to repeat her 3Lo when it is lower BV and far from her best jump. What she is planning according to Japanese T.V

4S
3A+2T
3FEu3S
3lo
3A
3F+3T
3Lz

Here is a post from Twitter which shows a screen capture from the show.

https://mobile.twitter.com/rikak_fans/status/1372151236254969868/photo

which makes the BV in the LP 76.04. Basically tied with Sasha and Anna in terms of BV if they do two quads each. I expect them to try at least 3 Quads. But, it comes down to who is the cleanest. Obviously Sasha, Rika, and Anna are the favorites for the podium.. the order and if they all make it will be determined by their performance on that day.

 

[chasingneverland]

Rika's BV in free skate is still lower than Anna's and Sasha's with two quads. If we consider all elements on lvl4, the BV gets 75.71:

She has potential margin from the SP for about 4.5 point in BV (I'm too lazy to count it to tenths now as it's not so important). That would still put Rika's total BV below Anna with just two quads (BV 81.88, considering her layout from nationals). It would be slightly above Sasha with two quads (79.38), but Sasha will nearly surely add third quad so she will be above as well. Of course Anna will probably add third quad as well but she would still have a small margin even with just two quads (the magic of two different strong quads) and she can decide to play the safe note if the third quad won't be sure.

Of course those considerations work with the prequisite that all would skate clean, there is always possibility of anyone bombing the program .(which makes me nervous already ).

That's actually not Rika's layout though. She's backloading her second 3A and doing a 3Lz.

4S 9.7
3A+2T 9.3
3F+1Eu+3S 10.10
3Lo 4.9
FCSp4 3.2
ChSq1 3.0
3A (x) 8.8
StSq4 3.9
3F-3T (x) 10.45
3Lz (x) 6.49
LSp4 2.7
CCoSp4 3.5
76.04 (which is what I said before)

 

[flanker]

That's actually not Rika's layout though. She's backloading her second 3A and doing a 3Lz.

4S 9.7
3A+2T 9.3
3F+1Eu+3S 10.10
3Lo 4.9
FCSp4 3.2
ChSq1 3.0
3A (x) 8.8
StSq4 3.9
3F-3T (x) 10.45
3Lz (x) 6.49
LSp4 2.7
CCoSp4 3.5
76.04 (which is what I said before)

I take it from here:

Though I made a mistake, there is a 3Lz+3T and I've written 3Lo+3T, which means the BV of this layout would be 1.1 point higher than I've written, 76.81. It is more advantageous than backloading the single 3A. But the point stays, 4Lz and 4F would still give the advantage to Anna with lower risk. Though it is probable she will go for three and the question is whether she would repeat Lz or F. As for Sasha, she pretty surely will go for three quads (if her health would not allow her to do even more).

 

[chasingneverland]

Looking at total BVs:

Rika:

SP BV:
3A 8.00
3F+3T 9.50
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz x 6.49
LSp4 2.70
StSq4 3.90
CCoSp4 3.50
37.29

FS BV:
4S 9.70
3A+2T 9.30
3F+1Eu+3S 10.10
3Lo 4.90
FCSp4 3.20
ChSq1 3.00
3A x 8.80
StSq4 3.90
3F+3T x 10.45
3Lz x 6.49
LSp4 2.70
CCoSp4 3.50
76.04

Total BV: 113.33

(Another potential layout for Rika):
4S 9.70
3A+2T 9.30
3Lz 5.90
3A 8.00
FCSp4 3.20
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3T x 11.11
StSq4 3.90
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lo x 5.39
LSp4 2.70
CCoSp4 3.50
76.81

Total BV (with two backloaded combos rather than a backloaded 3A): 114.10

Sasha:

SP BV:

(First using her SP from nationals):
2A 3.30
3F 5.30
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz+3T x 11.11
CCoSp4 3.50
StSq4 3.90
LSp4 2.70
33.01

(If she upgrades to a 3A):
3A 8.00
3F 5.30
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz+3T x 11.11
CCoSp4 3.50
StSq4 3.90
LSp4 2.70
37.71

FS BV:

(First using her 2 quad program)
4Lz+3T 15.70
4Lz 11.50
2A 3.30
2A 3.30
CCoSp4 3.50
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
FCCoSp4 3.50
80.38

Total BV (with two quads and no 3A in the SP): 113.39
Total BV (with two quads and a 3A in the SP): 118.08

(Using a three quad program - I think she tries 4Lz+3T, 4Lz, and backloaded 4T+1Eu+3S, for example):
4Lz+3T 15.70
4Lz 11.50
2A 3.30
2A 3.30
CCoSp4 3.50
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
4T+1Eu+3S x 15.73
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
FCCoSp4 3.50
85.00

Total BV (with three quads and no 3A in the SP): 118.01
Total BV (with three quads and a 3A in the SP): 122.71

Anna:

SP BV:
2A 3.30
3F 5.30
CCoSp4 3.50
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
LSp4 2.70
33.78

FS BV:

(First using her 2 quad program):
4Lz 11.50
4F 11.00
3F+3T 9.50
2A 3.30
ChSq1 3.00
FCCoSp4 3.50
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
CCoSp4 3.50
81.88

Total BV (with two quads): 115.66

(Using her three quad program from last year - although I'm not sure if she goes for two 4Lz or two 4Fs but the BV is pretty similar):
4Lz+3T 15.70
4F 11.00
ChSq1 3.00
2A 3.30
4Lz 11.50
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lz x 6.49
FCCoSp4 3.50
StSq4 3.90
CCoSp4 3.50
88.08

Total BV (with three quads): 121.86

 

[rollerblade]

Don't you guys ever get analysis paralysis?

 

[chasingneverland]

For fun let's also do Liza, Bradie, and Kaori:

Liza:

SP BV:
3A 8.00
3Lz+3T 10.10 (thank goodness she's doing a triple-triple now)
FCSp4 3.20
3F x 5.83
LSp4 2.70
StSq4 3.90
CCoSp4 3.50
37.23

FS BV:
3A+2T 9.30
3A 8.00
3Lz+3T 10.10
3F 5.30
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
3S+2A+SEQ x 6.69 (OK, so like it's bad enough that she only backloads one combo but what is this?!?! lol)
3Lz x 6.49
3Lo x 5.39
ChSp1 3.00
LSp4 2.70
CCoSp4 3.50
67.57

Total BV: 104.8

Bradie:

SP BV:
2A 3.30
3Lz+3T 10.10
LSp4 2.70
3F x 5.83
StSq4 3.90
FSSp4 3.00
CCoSp4 3.50
32.33

FS BV:
3Lz+3T 10.10
2A 3.30
3Lo 4.90
ChSq1 3.00
3S 4.30
CCSp4 3.20
3Lz+3T x 11.11
2A x 3.63
3F+2T+2Lo x 9.13
StSq4 3.90
FCCoSp4 3.50
CCoSp4 3.50
63.57

Total BV: 95.9

Kaori:

SP BV:
2A 3.30
3Lz 5.90 (She brought her 3Lz back to the SP.)
CCoSp4 3.50
3F+3T x 10.45
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
LSp4 2.70
32.95

FS BV:
2A 3.30
3F+3T 9.50
3Lz 5.90
3S 4.30
StSq4 3.90
CCoSp4 3.50
2A+3T+2T x 9.68
3F+2T x 7.26
ChSq1 3.00
3Lo x 5.39
FCCoSp4 3.50
62.23

Total BV: 95.18

 

[chasingneverland]

Don't you guys ever get analysis paralysis?

No haha.

Two reasons:
(1) I'm in engineering haha. If you think this is a lot...haha
(2) It helps to understand how someone can win with a fall, etc - It shows what huge buffers Anna, Sasha, and Rika (to an extent) have over the rest of the field - especially when you consider politics, PCS, etc. Although it also shows that Anna and Sasha will almost definitely go for a three quad layout and how much Sasha needs the 3A in the SP.

(Side note: It also shows the importance of layout - not just having the jumps.)

 

[Vilord]

3S+2A+SEQ x 6.69 (OK, so like it's bad enough that she only backloads one combo but what is this?!?! lol)

Based on some training videos of her doing 2A+Eu+3S I think there is a chance that she will try and replace the +2Aseq with that. That would deffinitely be good for her BV brining it up by around 5 points

 

[chasingneverland]

Based on some training videos of her doing 2A+Eu+3S I think there is a chance that she will try and replace the +2Aseq with that. That would deffinitely be good for her BV brining it up by around 5 points

Yeah, I think she needs to. She has said she won't upgrade though already and that would be an upgrade (kinda). I hope she changes her mind. More than any of that though, she needs to actually to land the 3As cleanly. The thing is that still only gives her one backloaded combo. And that gives her a 69.79 only bringing her BV up by 2 points, not 5. (A 2A+1Eu+3S x is 8.91.)

Having only one backloaded combo (amongst other layout decisions), is why despite Liza having 3 3A's and Bradie and Kaori having no "ultra-c" elements, they are actually not that far behind her (especially considering politics, PCS) and how much Liza needs to land those 3As cleanly. (It also shows that it's more than just the 4S that helps Rika.)

But training videos aren't everything. Rika literally just showed training videos last week of her landing a 3A+3T and a 3A+1Eu+3S - although in her case it doesn't help her BV.

 

[Amei]

Yeah, I think she needs to. She has said she won't upgrade though already and that would be an upgrade (kinda). I hope she changes her mind. More than any of that though, she needs to actually to land the 3As cleanly. The thing is that still only gives her one backloaded combo. And that gives her a 69.79 only bringing her BV up by 2 points, not 5. (A 2A+1Eu+3S x is 8.91.)

But training videos aren't everything. Rika literally just showed training videos last week of her landing a 3A+3T and a 3A+1Eu+3S - although in her case it doesn't help her BV.

I can understand not upgrading her difficulty, yes it makes her dependent on other skaters having bad skates for her to get on the podium but she has struggled to be clean with her current layout.

 

[chasingneverland]

I can understand not upgrading her difficulty, yes it makes her dependent on other skaters having bad skates for her to get on the podium but she has struggled to be clean with her current layout.

I can too. Especially because she has struggled to be consistent. I wasn't saying she needed to upgrade, I was saying she NEEDs to land the 3As cleanly. She also needs her spins and step sequences - everyone else is stronger there. She'll also have the disadvantage of not skating in the last group for the SP and will have the least Fed support (and probably the lowest PCS - if they're all reasonably clean.)

The thing is it's not just about getting on the podium. It's also about not being outscored by Bradie and Kaori.

The other thing is Anna and Sasha will both be attempting layouts they haven't tried yet this season. If Anna does the 4F+3T she'll have never attempted that in competition. She's also only landed a three quad layout program cleanly once. If Sasha does the 3A in the SP, she's never landed that cleanly. She's also only landed a three quad layout program cleanly once. Rika has never attempted her layout either. Bradie has also struggled to be clean with her layout too. Kaori brought back her 3Lz in the SP for the first time this season and has only landed her programs cleanly once.

It's not that the rest of them are consistent with their current layouts either - they're just not leaving it as much out of their hands and being dependent on others having a bad skate for their position.

Maybe it doesn't work out, but the thing is Anna and Sasha especially can afford not to be clean (and still podium) BECAUSE they've upgraded. They'll likely have a 20 point BV advantage over the rest of the field (and ~8 over Rika). Rika herself will have a 10 point advantage over Liza and 13/14 over the rest of the field.

 

[starlight97]

Hard call cause on one hand she's clearly only barely able to skate her current layout clean. I personally can't imagine her going clean at worlds.
On the other hand it's her last shot at a WC or probably any mayor international competition so maybe go all out guns blazing?
On the other, other hand with her current layout she could manage 3rd if someone else falters, if she goes for more than she's able to do it might well end in a splat fest and her being sth like 7th.. so idk.

 

[Vilord]

Yeah, I think she needs to. She has said she won't upgrade though already and that would be an upgrade (kinda). I hope she changes her mind. More than any of that though, she needs to actually to land the 3As cleanly. The thing is that still only gives her one backloaded combo. And that gives her a 69.79 only bringing her BV up by 2 points, not 5. (A 2A+1Eu+3S x is 8.91.)

Having only one backloaded combo (amongst other layout decisions), is why despite Liza having 3 3A's and Bradie and Kaori having no "ultra-c" elements, they are actually not that far behind her (especially considering politics, PCS) and how much Liza needs to land those 3As cleanly. (It also shows that it's more than just the 4S that helps Rika.)

But training videos aren't everything. Rika literally just showed training videos last week of her landing a 3A+3T and a 3A+1Eu+3S - although in her case it doesn't help her BV.

I agree training videos mean basically nothing unless you can perfom it in the program (at least at senior level). Im not sure that Liza saying she wont upgrade means she wont change the combos around. I took that more to mean that there wont be any quad attempts from her at worlds.

 

[chasingneverland]

It's also crazy to think that Alina is still the reigning World champion for one more week. That was sooo long ago.

 

[chasingneverland]

I agree training videos mean basically nothing unless you can perfom it in the program (at least at senior level). Im not sure that Liza saying she wont upgrade means she wont change the combos around. I took that more to mean that there wont be any quad attempts from her at worlds.

Oh for sure. I just more meant that it just adds 2 points to her BV and doesn't really do much for layout concerns.

 

[Vilord]

Hard call cause on one hand she's clearly only barely able to skate her current layout clean. I personally can't imagine her going clean at worlds.
On the other hand it's her last shot at a WC or probably any mayor international competition so maybe go all out guns blazing?
On the other, other hand with her current layout she could manage 3rd if someone else falters, if she goes for more than she's able to do it might well end in a splat fest and her being sth like 7th.. so idk.

I generally think its better to go for a layout you know and trust you can skate clean than to try something to difficult. (Sashas 5quads or Zhillinas 3A+3T for example)

 

[Vilord]

Oh for sure. I just more meant that it just adds 2 points to her BV and doesn't really do much for layout concerns.

Yes I realised my math was faulty. normally a +Eu+3S combo scores ca 11pts in the 2nd half but that is with a 3Lz/3F and not a 2A which I forgot to acount for.