2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Shayuki]

Based on some training videos of her doing 2A+Eu+3S I think there is a chance that she will try and replace the +2Aseq with that. That would deffinitely be good for her BV brining it up by around 5 points

Uh, this isn't how it works. You don't just compare a 2 jump combo to a 3 jump combo, and you don't replace a 2 jump combo with a 3 jump combo. You need to compare the entire layouts to one another. So many people constantly make this mistake... It all depends on what her other elements end up being.

By removing the +SEQ she technically gains about 2.3 points in BV, but some of those points might get lost if she loses points elsewhere in the layout due to that.

Yes I realised my math was faulty. normally a +Eu+3S combo scores ca 11pts in the 2nd half but that is with a 3Lz/3F and not a 2A which I forgot to acount for.

This is irrelevant though, because 3Lutz jumps for example are allocated a predetermined amount of spots in the program and some combo having one doesn't magically add a 3rd 3Lutz to the program.

 

[chasingneverland]

Uh, this isn't how it works. You don't just compare a 2 jump combo to a 3 jump combo, and you don't replace a 2 jump combo with a 3 jump combo. You need to compare the entire layouts to one another. So many people constantly make this mistake... It all depends on what her other elements end up being.

By removing the +SEQ she technically gains about 2.3 points in BV, but some of those points might get lost if she loses points elsewhere in the layout due to that.
This is irrelevant though, because 3Lutz jumps for example are allocated a predetermined amount of spots in the program and some combo having one doesn't magically add a 3rd 3Lutz to the program.

In this case, I'm pretty sure Liza T can replace it cleanly. I'm pretty sure?? I'll go back and check but I'm pretty sure it's fine..

And we never talked about Liza doing another 3Lz or a 3F+1Eu+3S? Vilord just meant that he assumed it was worth ~11 points because backloaded combos tend to be - but failed to account for the difference in BV between a 2A and a 3F or 3Lz.

EDIT: Liza doesn't have a three jump combination anywhere in her original layout so she can change that. She's also not changing the other jumps because she doesn't do the 2A or 3S anywhere else in her program. And she doesn't add another jump combo by adding it - it's still three jumps combos. So she's fine.

 

[Vilord]

This is irrelevant though, because 3Lutz jumps for example are allocated a predetermined amount of spots in the program and some combo having one doesn't magically add a 3rd 3Lutz to the program.

I know. Thats why I admitted that my math was faulty I forgot the 1st jump was a 2A as stated in my comment.
And also Liza currenntly doesnt have a 3jump combo. She has 3A+2T and 3Lz+3T so replacing 3S+2A+seq with 2A+Eu+3S allowed without changing anything else

 

[chasingneverland]

I generally think its better to go for a layout you know and trust you can skate clean than to try something to difficult. (Sashas 5quads or Zhillinas 3A+3T for example)

Even Sasha's 4 quads (and her 3A in the SP) and Kamila's 4S, backloaded 4T extravaganza. (And actually to some extent Anna and Sasha's 3 quad programs and Rika's 4S.) The difference here is while they might not need all of this this year, there's a (not small) chance they need it next year. And Anna, Sasha, and Rika are aiming to win and they can't count on their rivals not upgrading...

So as long as it's reasonably consistent...

 

[silveruskate]

Looking at total BVs:

Rika:

SP BV:
3A 8.00
3F+3T 9.50
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz x 6.49
LSp4 2.70
StSq4 3.90
CCoSp4 3.50
37.29

FS BV:
4S 9.70
3A+2T 9.30
3F+1Eu+3S 10.10
3Lo 4.90
FCSp4 3.20
ChSq1 3.00
3A x 8.80
StSq4 3.90
3F+3T x 10.45
3Lz x 6.49
LSp4 2.70
CCoSp4 3.50
76.04

Total BV: 113.33

(Another potential layout for Rika):
4S 9.70
3A+2T 9.30
3Lz 5.90
3A 8.00
FCSp4 3.20
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3T x 11.11
StSq4 3.90
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lo x 5.39
LSp4 2.70
CCoSp4 3.50
76.81

Total BV (with two backloaded combos rather than a backloaded 3A): 114.10

Sasha:

SP BV:

(First using her SP from nationals):
2A 3.30
3F 5.30
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz+3T x 11.11
CCoSp4 3.50
StSq4 3.90
LSp4 2.70
33.01

(If she upgrades to a 3A):
3A 8.00
3F 5.30
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz+3T x 11.11
CCoSp4 3.50
StSq4 3.90
LSp4 2.70
37.71

FS BV:

(First using her 2 quad program)
4Lz+3T 15.70
4Lz 11.50
2A 3.30
2A 3.30
CCoSp4 3.50
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
FCCoSp4 3.50
80.38

Total BV (with two quads and no 3A in the SP): 113.39
Total BV (with two quads and a 3A in the SP): 118.08

(Using a three quad program - I think she tries 4Lz+3T, 4Lz, and backloaded 4T+1Eu+3S, for example):
4Lz+3T 15.70
4Lz 11.50
2A 3.30
2A 3.30
CCoSp4 3.50
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
4T+1Eu+3S x 15.73
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
FCCoSp4 3.50
85.00

Total BV (with three quads and no 3A in the SP): 118.01
Total BV (with three quads and a 3A in the SP): 122.71

Anna:

SP BV:
2A 3.30
3F 5.30
CCoSp4 3.50
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
LSp4 2.70
33.78

FS BV:

(First using her 2 quad program):
4Lz 11.50
4F 11.00
3F+3T 9.50
2A 3.30
ChSq1 3.00
FCCoSp4 3.50
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
CCoSp4 3.50
81.88

Total BV (with two quads): 115.66

(Using her three quad program from last year - although I'm not sure if she goes for two 4Lz or two 4Fs but the BV is pretty similar):
4Lz+3T 15.70
4F 11.00
ChSq1 3.00
2A 3.30
4Lz 11.50
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lz x 6.49
FCCoSp4 3.50
StSq4 3.90
CCoSp4 3.50
88.08

Total BV (with three quads): 121.86

Thanks for the effort. Just pointing out for Sasha's 3 quad program she wouldn't do 2 double axels, one of them would become a 3F, so +2 on the BV.

 

[chasingneverland]

Thanks for the effort. Just pointing out for Sasha's 3 quad program she wouldn't do 2 double axels, one of them would become a 3F, so +2 on the BV.

I did consider that. I just wasn't sure if they would because she's getting edge calls on her 3F, nationally. But it is two points....

4Lz+3T 15.70
4Lz 11.50
3F 5.30
2A 3.30
CCoSp4 3.50
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
4T+1Eu+3S x 15.73
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
FCCoSp4 3.50
87.00

Really Sasha's is the hardest to predict because she also has a 4F and a 4S and there are so many things she could do but she's never been consistent..and she has been injured..

And she doesn't have as much of a step sequence, spins, PCS buffer as Anna and Rika do. Also Anna's program is much less risky.

 

[silveruskate]

I did consider that. I just wasn't sure if they would because she's getting edge calls on her 3F, nationally. But it is two points....

4Lz+3T 15.70
4Lz 11.50
3F 5.30
2A 3.30
CCoSp4 3.50
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
4T+1Eu+3S x 15.73
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
FCCoSp4 3.50
87.00

Really Sasha's is the hardest to predict because she also has a 4F and a 4S and there are so many things she could do but she's never been consistent..and she has been injured..

And she doesn't have as much of a step sequence, spins, PCS buffer as Anna and Rika do. Also Anna's program is much less risky.

Unless she gets an e for the Flip it's always worth it to do it instead of a 2A. Even with e, she would be getting 3.98 BV. I just don't imagine Sasha ever doing 2 2As unless she has to.

 

[flanker]

Who to watch:

 

[Paulipau]

I did consider that. I just wasn't sure if they would because she's getting edge calls on her 3F, nationally. But it is two points....

4Lz+3T 15.70
4Lz 11.50
3F 5.30
2A 3.30
CCoSp4 3.50
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
4T+1Eu+3S x 15.73
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
FCCoSp4 3.50
87.00

Really Sasha's is the hardest to predict because she also has a 4F and a 4S and there are so many things she could do but she's never been consistent..and she has been injured..

And she doesn't have as much of a step sequence, spins, PCS buffer as Anna and Rika do. Also Anna's program is much less risky.

That's the best she could go for safely. I'm worried that she would get only level 3 on the stsq tho.

 

[chasingneverland]

Unless she gets an e for the Flip it's always worth it to do it instead of a 2A. Even with e, she would be getting 3.98 BV. I just don't imagine Sasha ever doing 2 2As unless she has to.

It's just an unclear edge but she's been called it on every single 3F she's done this year (except for the disastrous Rostelecom FS and there was fell and was called on everything else..and I'm pretty sure she still got an unclear edge in the SP..)

But yeah..that's true..

 

[chasingneverland]

That's the best she could go for safely. I'm worried that she would get only level 3 on the stsq tho.

Yeah but she's not the only one who might have to be careful with getting all her levels on her spins and step sequences. (Liza especially will need to watch for that.)

And all of them will have to be careful of under-rotations. Downgrades will also be something to watch for the 3A/quad girls - they've all had their "ultra-c" jumps called downgraded before..

 

[Jontor]

Looking at total BVs:

Rika:

SP BV:
3A 8.00
3F+3T 9.50
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz x 6.49
LSp4 2.70
StSq4 3.90
CCoSp4 3.50
37.29

FS BV:
4S 9.70
3A+2T 9.30
3F+1Eu+3S 10.10
3Lo 4.90
FCSp4 3.20
ChSq1 3.00
3A x 8.80
StSq4 3.90
3F+3T x 10.45
3Lz x 6.49
LSp4 2.70
CCoSp4 3.50
76.04

Total BV: 113.33

(Another potential layout for Rika):
4S 9.70
3A+2T 9.30
3Lz 5.90
3A 8.00
FCSp4 3.20
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3T x 11.11
StSq4 3.90
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lo x 5.39
LSp4 2.70
CCoSp4 3.50
76.81

Total BV (with two backloaded combos rather than a backloaded 3A): 114.10

Sasha:

SP BV:

(First using her SP from nationals):
2A 3.30
3F 5.30
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz+3T x 11.11
CCoSp4 3.50
StSq4 3.90
LSp4 2.70
33.01

(If she upgrades to a 3A):
3A 8.00
3F 5.30
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz+3T x 11.11
CCoSp4 3.50
StSq4 3.90
LSp4 2.70
37.71

FS BV:

(First using her 2 quad program)
4Lz+3T 15.70
4Lz 11.50
2A 3.30
2A 3.30
CCoSp4 3.50
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
FCCoSp4 3.50
80.38

Total BV (with two quads and no 3A in the SP): 113.39
Total BV (with two quads and a 3A in the SP): 118.08

(Using a three quad program - I think she tries 4Lz+3T, 4Lz, and backloaded 4T+1Eu+3S, for example):
4Lz+3T 15.70
4Lz 11.50
2A 3.30
2A 3.30
CCoSp4 3.50
ChSq1 3.00
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
4T+1Eu+3S x 15.73
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
FCCoSp4 3.50
85.00

Total BV (with three quads and no 3A in the SP): 118.01
Total BV (with three quads and a 3A in the SP): 122.71

Anna:

SP BV:
2A 3.30
3F 5.30
CCoSp4 3.50
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
LSp4 2.70
33.78

FS BV:

(First using her 2 quad program):
4Lz 11.50
4F 11.00
3F+3T 9.50
2A 3.30
ChSq1 3.00
FCCoSp4 3.50
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lz x 6.49
FCSp4 3.20
StSq4 3.90
CCoSp4 3.50
81.88

Total BV (with two quads): 115.66

(Using her three quad program from last year - although I'm not sure if she goes for two 4Lz or two 4Fs but the BV is pretty similar):
4Lz+3T 15.70
4F 11.00
ChSq1 3.00
2A 3.30
4Lz 11.50
FCSp4 3.20
3Lz+3Lo x 11.88
3F+1Eu+3S x 11.11
3Lz x 6.49
FCCoSp4 3.50
StSq4 3.90
CCoSp4 3.50
88.08

Total BV (with three quads): 121.86

I'm getting nervous. What if my top three won't be the top three??

 

[Novalis]

I'm getting nervous. What if my top three won't be the top three??

Well, then I suppose we're gonna have to switch to watching snooker

 

[Jontor]

I generally think its better to go for a layout you know and trust you can skate clean than to try something to difficult. (Sashas 5quads or Zhillinas 3A+3T for example)

Agreed. But Liza (and sometimes Sasha) change their layouts all the time. I think in Liza's case she goes for what feels good at the moment. I expect her to have yet another layout at Worlds than we saw at RC Final. That's the way Liza works. If that's good or not, well that is the question...

 

[Paulipau]

Agreed. But Liza (and sometimes Sasha) change their layouts all the time. I think in Liza's case she goes for what feels good at the moment. I expect her to have yet another layout at Worlds than we saw at RC Final. That's the way Liza works. If that's good or not, well that is the question...

I love Liza so much for that, she is a sneeky smart minx.

I think it comes with experience.

 

[chasingneverland]

I'm getting nervous. What if my top three won't be the top three??

Who are your top 3?

 

[Jontor]

I love Liza so much for that, she is a sneeky smart minx.

I think it comes with experience.

Agreed. But is it good though? Sometimes I wish she would stick to a layout and then train it to death... But then again, her experience might allow her to experiment a little. I can't tell which is best.

 

[Jontor]

Who are your top 3?

That's for me to know, and you to find out...soon

But let's just say it is kind of appropriate for this thread...though I haven't completely made up my mind about 3rd yet.

 

[Paulipau]

I generally think its better to go for a layout you know and trust you can skate clean than to try something to difficult. (Sashas 5quads or Zhillinas 3A+3T for example)

Well in Sasha's case, with 5 guads she has a gold in the pocket.

 

[Dawn825]

Sorry to interrupt lol, just wondering, since she's been featured on Plushenko's instagram - what level is Valeria Shluskaya on and why cant I recall seeing her skate at all this year? Also did we ever find out why Sofia Muravyeva withdrew from the final?