2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[LiamV426]

I'm just going to throw it out there. Here's how it will go. You read it here first:

GP 1 and GP 4. Skate America and NHK Trophy
Sasha, Dasha and Maiia

GP 2 and GP 5. Skate Canada and Internationaux da France
Liza, Kamila and Zhenya

GP 3 and GP 6. Cup of China and Rostelecom Cup
Anna, Alyona and extra girl

Yes, Dasha and Maiia will both be paired with Sasha (possibly Eteri's influence). D and M have very little to lose and the other "2nd round" picks Alyona and Kamila will not be put up against Sasha.

Kamila will skate with the age 20+ girls. It's a nice enviroment for her: to compete at GP for the first time and travel with these two very experienced lovely ladies, who I don't think can be that intimitating to her. Kamila will sweep the gold medals in Canada and France!

Anna will have to go to China again. But I think that she's the one who's turn is to do the Rostelecom. She even missed out this season. She will be paired with Alyona. And I don't see that as a fierce rivalry at this point. Eteri just wants the girls to bring home gold and silver.
the "extra girl" will be two different girls getting one go. Nugumanova I'm guessing and idk. We'll see.

My prediction also includes Alina not being interested in the GP series.

I'm a bit clueless when it comes to GP assignments but doesn't Anna get a say in where she goes? Would she really want to do Cup of China again having already won it? It's generally seen as a less "prestigious" assignment (not sure why but I always get that vibe) and I can't recall any reigning World Champions going to it.

 

[chasingneverland]

I expect the same pairing as @LiamForeman for the same reasons. Anna won everything this season and has shown the nerves of steel and Kamila is taken as the most promising, so those two will probably be the biggest favourites by the FFKKR. Similarly Sasha is still another favourite with her tech content. So the first three will be Anna, Kamila, Sasha and Maiia, Liza and Daria will be assigned to them in this order. Don't know about Aliona yet, also not sure who the other two girls will be but I guess Liza Nugumanova and Sofia Samodurova (or maybe Zhenya, but I still don't see that).

As for the assignments, Anna was traditionally assigned to the earliest competitions (first JGP in 2018/19, first GP in 2019/20, first RC stage in 2020/21, I would expect similar logic. After all her level of english directly calls for being assigned to a competition in an english speaking country But the question is whether they will want her at Rostelecom or they will send her to Japan. I again think that the japanese audience is tuned positively for Anna (she was invited for the shows there before she even started to compete internationally in juniors). I also don't think they wil send Aliona into the direct competition with Sasha yet (unless Aliona completely restore her stellar form from the 2019/20 during the short time before the assignments), so I think she will have to deal with Kamila and Liza T. (the fight of triple Axels). The other version would be swithichg her with Maiia or Liza N., but I again don't think they will want Aliona to compete with Anna yet.

So, my guess would be:
GP 1 (SA) and GP 4 (NHK): Anna+Maiia+Liza N.
GP 2 (SC) and GP 5 (IdF): Sasha+Daria+Sofia
GP 3 (CoC) and GP 6 (Rost): Kamila+Liza T.+Aliona

I usually was very unsuccesful with predictions, but it seems that the recent success with the WTT encouraged me

I think this seems reasonable haha.

I do think if Evgenia comes back they give her NHK. She won't make the GPF (likely) so the presence of Rika won't be a concern to her. And Japanese audiences love her. I do wonder about them sending Anna to meet the Japanese girls so early (Rika, Kaori, Wakaba?)..but it's definitely possible.

I think they also leave the Rostelecom host spot open until essentially the very end depending on results from skaters like Maiia and Daria, returners like Evgenia, or even potential surprises that they want to reward (if they don't think someone will make the GPF with a poor result at an earlier GP) and give the spot to someone like Ksenia, etc.

They'll likely have 3 main parings - some combination of Anna, Sasha, Liza with one of Kamila, Daria, Maiia/Aliona and leave the third spot rotating, so that third person at each comp won't be "paired with a pairing" and will probably determine somewhat are results. They also won't give all of them 2 spots. Some will only get 1.

 

[el henry]

I'm a bit clueless when it comes to GP assignments but doesn't Anna get a say in where she goes? Would she really want to do Cup of China again having already won it? It's generally seen as a less "prestigious" assignment (not sure why but I always get that vibe) and I can't recall any reigning World Champions going to it.

Are you talking about the ladies when it comes to the prestige of CoC? Javier Fernandez skated there as World Champ, and of course Sui/Cong skated there as world champs. I don't know if Papadakis/Cizeron were the world champs when they skated there.

The host feds choose the skaters, but the world champs have input. In North America, a skater who has won a world championship can indicate to their fed which GP they would like to do, and the fed will try to accommodate them in their negotiations with the host fed and other feds about who goes where. I do not know how the RusFed arranges matters.

 

[chasingneverland]

I don't know if Papadakis/Cizeron were the world champs when they skated there.

They've gone twice, so the second time were two-time World champs.

Mao's also gone after being a two-time World champion.

Although I guess neither were reigning at the time - but definitely distinguished.

 

[LiamV426]

Are you talking about the ladies when it comes to the prestige of CoC? Javier Fernandez skated there as World Champ, and of course Sui/Cong skated there as world champs. I don't know if Papadakis/Cizeron were the world champs when they skated there.

The host feds choose the skaters, but the world champs have input. In North America, a skater who has won a world championship can indicate to their fed which GP they would like to do, and the fed will try to accommodate them in their negotiations with the host fed and other feds about who goes where. I do not know how the RusFed arranges matters.

I was just thinking of ladies which seems very short-sighted in retrospect lol. I just remembered Yuzuru also skated there after becoming World Champ.

That's really interesting about the process, I always assumed the Top 3 skaters at Worlds could pick their assignments (Like 1st picks, then 2nd must choose a different one, then 3rd goes, then back to first to make sure the top 3 don't compete against each other). But not sure where I got this idea from.

 

[el henry]

I was just thinking of ladies which seems very short-sighted in retrospect lol. I just remembered Yuzuru also skated there after becoming World Champ.

That's really interesting about the process, I always assumed the Top 3 skaters at Worlds could pick their assignments (Like 1st picks, then 2nd must choose a different one, then 3rd goes, then back to first to make sure the top 3 don't compete against each other). But not sure where I got this idea from.

Well, technically the Feds select. But that is technically. I hate to bring her name up here because I hope to heavens it does not cause some off topic rants, but Meagan Duhamel said when she and Eric were World Champs, Skate Canada asked them which GPs they wanted. And then Skate Canada wheeled and dealed to get those GPs.

The feds act as the skaters' agents

 

[Minz]

The host feds choose the skaters, but the world champs have input. In North America, a skater who has won a world championship can indicate to their fed which GP they would like to do, and the fed will try to accommodate them in their negotiations with the host fed and other feds about who goes where. I do not know how the RusFed arranges matters.

The feds do not have that much of a say in who comes to them. It’s all a jumble. Again, the World Champion gets first pick. They choose/input 2 GP’s. The silver medalist chooses from the remaining 4, and the bronze medalist gets the last two. Now the entire ladies podium was Russia at these World Championships, so FSR might be able to pick and choose. However say Anna won gold, Rika won silver and Karen won bronze, FSR would put Anna’s choices in, then JSF, tells Rika her choices, puts those in and then USFS/Karen get notified of the remaining 2. Something like this

The top three need to be separated, but it doesn’t matter who goes where as long as they are separated. That’s just personal preference of the skaters. It doesn’t matter to the feds because they are going to be separated, so it doesn’t affect anything.

 

[LiamForeman]

Well, technically the Feds select. But that is technically. I hate to bring her name up here because I hope to heavens it does not cause some off topic rants, but Meagan Duhamel said when she and Eric were World Champs, Skate Canada asked them which GPs they wanted. And then Skate Canada wheeled and dealed to get those GPs.

The feds act as the skaters' agents

That's what I remembered. Now, I do think that probably every host country except for Japan would be dying to get Kamila. She is the new star. And nothing against Liza, but those host countries who Liza ends up choosing probably want a bigger star than her from Russia. I can't wait to see how this turns out!

 

[el henry]

The feds do not have that much of a say in who comes to them. It’s all a jumble. Again, the World Champion gets first pick. They choose/input 2 GP’s. The silver medalist chooses from the remaining 4, and the bronze medalist gets the last two. Now the entire ladies podium was Russia at these World Championships, so they might be able to pick and choose. However say Anna won gold, Rika won silver and Karen won bronze, FSR would put Anna’s choices in, then JSF, tells Rika her choices, puts those in and then USFS/Karen get notified of the remaining 2. Something like this

The skaters have some control, the feds have control, but the WC does get first pick/input (normally)

I agree those are the rules for the top three, and the host feds, although they can negotiate, should accept the champ's picks.

But because the feds broker the selections, there is always a chance for wheeling and dealing. From what I can tell of the RusFed, and I know very little, so others can correct me, they will go in order, as they seem to be sticklers (and good for them, that's not a criticism).

However, I would argue that is not set in stone. Yuzuru Hanyu will get NHK, if he wants it. The Japanese Fed, as the "broker", will convince Yuma that he really wants another GP and not NHK. And if I were the Japanese Fed, and I had a choice between the uber popular GOAT and an up and comer with presumably many years ahead of him, I'd do the same. I predict the Fed will broker the result it wants.

That's what I remembered. Now, I do think that probably every host country except for Japan would be dying to get Kamila. She is the new star. And nothing against Liza, but those host countries who Liza ends up choosing probably want a bigger star than her from Russia. I can't wait to see how this turns out!

"Bigger star" is in the eye of the beholder. You presumably follow the ladies and have a favorite. I do not. Yet, I can identify Liza and I know who she is. I could not pick Kamila out of a line-up, and I'm not saying that to be mean, I just couldn't. I know she has a Picasso routine that is admired. But if I were headed to Vegas, I'd rather see the Empress, and I consider her a plenty big star.

 

[chasingneverland]

That's what I remembered. Now, I do think that probably every host country except for Japan would be dying to get Kamila. She is the new star. And nothing against Liza, but those host countries who Liza ends up choosing probably want a bigger star than her from Russia. I can't wait to see how this turns out!

The thing it's actually usually the opposite. They DON'T want the stars because they want their own skaters to do better.

For example, China (CoC) probably doesn't care at all in ladies because they have no main contenders. Canada (SC) and France (IdF) also won't care and will welcome the ladies stars. On the other hand Japan (NHK) and even US (SA) will care because they'll want their top skaters to make GPF and their chances will be diminished if Anna or Kamila, for example, beats them here. (Especially as their skaters already have star power at least domestically). Now, Anna as champion has quite a bit of say in this, but the RusFed also won't want Anna or Kamila to get beaten by Rika or a young Alysa Liu for example. (They'll want them all to make the GPF before that clash happens.)

So some of the "wheeling and dealing" isn't to get skaters to the locations they want as much as it is to ensure top skaters avoid each other.

And then it's important to realize that ladies isn't an isolated discipline. For example, SC will welcome stars in the ladies event. But they won't want the stars in especially ice dance and pairs. All all of that will also play a role. It'll be like we'll do this but you do this.

 

[Jontor]

Question: Two seasons ago, for the SGP, the top 3 were paired with the next 3. (Anna/Liza, Sasha/Med, and Alena/Zag). Who do you think they will pair up next season? The top 3 seeds are Anna/Liza/Sasha for next season. And then you have Valieva/Usacheva/Khromykh. If I were RusFed, I think the priority should be Valieva to win everything leading up to the Olympics. So I would pair Liza/Valieva since Liza is much less competition for Valieva. Anna is world champion and also a fave for the OGM, so I would pair Anna/Maiia because Maiia is the least competition of the lower 3 (for now, things can change I know). That leaves Sasha paired with Daria.

So for the SGP we'd see together Anna/Maiia, Liza/Kamila, and Sasha/Daria.

Of course this is leaving out Alyona. I'm not sure which pairing I would put her with though. Since she also could be OGM material, she needs to be in the weakest pairing to possibly win her events and make GPF. Which do you think is the weakest of the pairings? I'm thinking Anna/Maiia. I hope Anna selects Skate America, since that would possibly mean we'd see Anna, Maiia, and Alyona there. That would be amazing!

When do assignments come out?

I'm just going to throw it out there. Here's how it will go. You read it here first:

GP 1 and GP 4. Skate America and NHK Trophy
Sasha, Dasha and Maiia

GP 2 and GP 5. Skate Canada and Internationaux da France
Liza, Kamila and Zhenya

GP 3 and GP 6. Cup of China and Rostelecom Cup
Anna, Alyona and extra girl

7
My prediction also includes Alina not being interested in the GP series.

So, my guess would be:
GP 1 (SA) and GP 4 (NHK): Anna+Maiia+Liza N.
GP 2 (SC) and GP 5 (IdF): Sasha+Daria+Sofia
GP 3 (CoC) and GP 6 (Rost): Kamila+Liza T.+Aliona

I am loving these predictions. Me too totally go with @LiamForeman pairings.

IF I could choose, I would only give Medvedeva one GP spot, but that won't happen, she will probably get two.
And I am not so sure that Alina is out of the picture just yet...and if she's not, she will probably get two GPs as well.
So that would then complete the nine ladies.

But if Alina won't be there, I think it is Samodurova, or maybe Samodurova one, Sinitsyna one?
I still have a hard time seeing that Nugumanova will get any GPs unfortunately.

But we'll see. Can't wait to see what happens. But most of all, I SOO hope that things will not go south with this bloody pandemic, and we won't get any GP events next season either. That would be devastating.

Still, first up though is who makes the National Team. It might give us a clue about GPs, but I still haven't forgotten about Gubanova being on the reserve team two seasons ago, and then got NOTHING. No GPs, no Challengers, nada.

 

[Jontor]

I agree those are the rules for the top three, and the host feds, although they can negotiate, should accept the champ's picks.

But because the feds broker the selections, there is always a chance for wheeling and dealing. From what I can tell of the RusFed, and I know very little, so others can correct me, they will go in order, as they seem to be sticklers (and good for them, that's not a criticism).

However, I would argue that is not set in stone. Yuzuru Hanyu will get NHK, if he wants it. The Japanese Fed, as the "broker", will convince Yuma that he really wants another GP and not NHK. And if I were the Japanese Fed, and I had a choice between the uber popular GOAT and an up and comer with presumably many years ahead of him, I'd do the same. I predict the Fed will broker the result it wants.


"Bigger star" is in the eye of the beholder. You presumably follow the ladies and have a favorite. I do not. Yet, I can identify Liza and I know who she is. I could not pick Kamila out of a line-up, and I'm not saying that to be mean, I just couldn't. I know she has a Picasso routine that is admired. But if I were headed to Vegas, I'd rather see the Empress, and I consider her a plenty big star.

Americans and their star fixation...

 

[el henry]

Americans and their star fixation...

I truly am missing the point.

did I say anything about the US Fed? Trust me, for the disciplines I follow, gold gold gold and stars stars stars mean very little to me. I do think Liza has star power and she would be fun to see at a comp.

but I am just one American fan

 

[Jontor]

I truly am missing the point.

did I say anything about the US Fed? Trust me, for the disciplines I follow, gold gold gold and stars stars stars mean very little to me. I do think Liza has star power and she would be fun to see at a comp.

but I am just one American fan

And that was my point...

But just to be clear, I see no wrong in that. This sport is fixated around its stars. This sport needs its stars.

However, when we speak and speculate about the Russian girls and where they want to go, I think it is a very different mindset from a Russian Ladies point of view than us western Europeans/Americans. They are already stars in their own country, that comes first, and I think they tend to shift to Asia when it comes to secondary stardom. So if I were a Russian Ladies skater, I would prioritise Rostelecom, NHK, China. And won't be so interested in SA, SC and IdF. OK, SA might be interesting, but that would be for long term planning and coaching in the future, it is Asia where the Russian girls can do their shows.

 

[Minz]

And that was my point...

But just to be clear, I see no wrong in that. This sport is fixated around its stars. This sport needs its stars.

However, when we speak and speculate about the Russian girls and where they want to go, I think it is a very different mindset from a Russian Ladies point of view than us western Europeans/Americans. They are already stars in their own country, that comes first, and I think they tend to shift to Asia when it comes to secondary stardom. So if I were a Russian Ladies skater, I would prioritise Rostelecom, NHK, China. And won't be so interested in SA, SC and IdF. OK, SA might be interesting, but that would be for long term planning and coaching in the future, it is Asia where the Russian girls can do their shows.

Also remember the time changes/travel. It can be a pain and you can loose several days of solid training.

 

[el henry]

And that was my point...

But just to be clear, I see no wrong in that. This sport is fixated around its stars. This sport needs its stars.

However, when we speak and speculate about the Russian girls and where they want to go, I think it is a very different mindset from a Russian Ladies point of view than us western Europeans/Americans. They are already stars in their own country, that comes first, and I think they tend to shift to Asia when it comes to secondary stardom. So if I were a Russian Ladies skater, I would prioritise Rostelecom, NHK, China. And won't be so interested in SA, SC and IdF. OK, SA might be interesting, but that would be for long term planning and coaching in the future, it is Asia where the Russian girls can do their shows.

I understand what you are saying now, and I agree. I just used SA as the one GP whose location I knew off the top of my head.

if the world is close to normal, and all GPs are held, I feel bad for the second and third place Russian ladies from Worlds, of course they would all prefer to be at Rostelecom. I feel bad for Yuma, who I am convinced will be “persuaded” to put in for a GP other than NHK if Yuzu skates the GP series. Yuma I am sure would prefer to build his brand there.

So I wasn’t saying the skaters should prefer to go SA at all

 

[Skuratov]

I'm a bit clueless when it comes to GP assignments but doesn't Anna get a say in where she goes? Would she really want to do Cup of China again having already won it? It's generally seen as a less "prestigious" assignment (not sure why but I always get that vibe) and I can't recall any reigning World Champions going to it.

Yes, she does.

The ISU (not the Feds) takes her World Standing list and ask to the #1 ranked skater (through her Federation) Where she wants to compete (six possible places)? Skater choices two spots; The ISU decides whether to give her both spots or not, so on with the next 5 in the ranking. There is a restriction: the top six skaters in the World ranking can only meet once in those six GP events.
For instance: Suppose Ana chooses Rostelecom and NHK, Liza T. also chooses Rostelecom and NHK. The ISU is going to reject Liza's choices and will be reassigned to two other spots.

 

[DougDorsey]

Really, no one has posted yet about Sasha leaving Angels of Plushenko and returning to Team Tut?

Welp, here to get things started...

 

[nussnacker]

This year there won't be insane coaching changes to gossip during the off season either. At least not by the prominent girls that are going for the OG. So let's see just how dry and peaceful the coming months will be xD

Yeah... about that...

 

[Novalis]

Really, no one has posted yet about Sasha leaving Angels of Plushenko and returning to Team Tut?

Welp, here to get things started...

Wow! I honestly didn't think this would happen