Who can defeat the Russian Women in 2021-22?

[Bluediamonds09]

Is loena too tall to do a quad? Is 5'4" really a cutoff for a lady to do a quad? Based of off loena's 2A technique I think a quad is more likely, but not if she's too tall, if it really is a hindrance.

 

[snowflake]

What she did in 2017 as a junior isn’t relevant. Some skaters don’t peak then believe it or not, and she’s had a much more successful senior career.

Worlds was bad but to be fair it was pretty bad for everyone. I mean, Sasha medaled with a 217! That’s a score that would’ve only been good enough for 6th at the previous worlds and that was with only two ladies attempting triple axels or quads as opposed to the four here. It was Rika’s worst free skate as a senior but her next lowest score at that point was 12 points better, and the vast majority of her free skates scored at least 20 points higher than she did at Worlds. She had one very weak performance but that shouldn’t count her out (as we saw with Sasha skating beautifully at Nationals after her disastrous Rostelecom performance).

I’m not saying Rika doesn’t have an uphill battle to try and podium and Beijing but she definitely shouldn’t be written off. She has the best shot of any non-Russian with her tech and artistry; she just has to be able to put it together to really fight for it (because that’s her biggest problem at this point: she struggles to skate two clean programs, but that doesn’t mean she can’t). A clean Rika is absolutely good enough to pressure the Russians.

Yes, and it's hard to predict how much each skater will improve next season with more normal training conditions. Wasn't for exampel Rika supposed to train in Canada before it wasn't possible? Like some of the US women couldn't go to their planned coaches(Bradie?)

That said I think it will be a Russian sweep at the GPF, Euros, Olympics and Worlds next season.

Indeed tough for the challenging non Russian skaters. Will be very exciting to see their strategies.

 

[Lzbee]

Is loena too tall to do a quad? Is 5'4" really a cutoff for a lady to do a quad? Based of off loena's 2A technique I think a quad is more likely, but not if she's too tall, if it really is a hindrance.

Maia's pretty tall and she has quads so it's possible.

But I think the next step for Loena is to have a couple of back-to-back clean skates, add another triple-triple combo and backload one of them. That would likely put her equal to or even above Kaori because she has no edge issues.

 

[dante]

Of course one can ask, but what if she had had to skate against Medvedeva and Zagitova, or against Shcherbakova, Kostornia and Trusova? To me, that is a moot point.

Better ask, what if she skated during a revolution in figure skating.
You will have your long careers after the technique and the training process stabilize, and it's quite possible that they already did.

 

[Skater Boy]

Yes, and it's hard to predict how much each skater will improve next season with more normal training conditions. Wasn't for exampel Rika supposed to train in Canada before it wasn't possible? Like some of the US women couldn't go to their planned coaches(Bradie?)

That said I think it will be a Russian sweep at the GPF, Euros, Olympics and Worlds next season.

Indeed tough for the challenging non Russian skaters. Will be very exciting to see their strategies.

Let's have a little faith. Sakamoto's performances at WTT and Rika has it all and maybe more pc wise they both are capable. Loena like Ms.Liu would need to do well in the GP to have a chance of winning OGM but they could still medal on the podium. Sadly Miyhara seems to being going downhill and we may not see her at the olympics. Poor Satoko - rotate and get bigger jumps.

Karen Chen, Mariah Bell and Bradie Tennel could medal as well But i the Russians are clean I can only see Rika winning at this point and she would have to do the triple axels and a quad.

 

[odinv]

When I think of longevity in the context of figure skating history I can't help thinking of Michelle Kwan. She won 5 world championships in 8 years, taking on all comers.

Of course one can ask, but what if she had had to skate against Medvedeva and Zagitova, or against Shcherbakova, Kostornia and Trusova? To me, that is a moot point. What if Kwan had competed against Katarina Witt or Sonja Henie? IMHO that question is of academic interest only. These last-named skaters dominated the sport for years, as did Kwan.

Now we appear to have entered a different era, one in which no one individual will be able to hold the lead year after year. We'll see how it plays out. To me, it seems not impossible that some day a Yuna Kim will come along and pose a threat to "the machine." The future is full of surprises.

Apologies. I don't think I conveyed what I had in mind properly. I wasn't suggesting comparing skaters from different eras like Kwan to Henie, etc. I agree that it wouldn't really work, if it could even be done reliably. The technical evolution (progression) alone will render it moot. Not to mention different scoring systems, prerequisite elements, etc.

What I was trying to ask all of you was how much historical results would change if we could eliminate all the outside factors. E.g. Eteri bonus, Federation influence, Nationality, No. of entries per country, etc. For instance:

Would Sotnikova still have prevailed at Sochi over Kim? Or would another skater who missed out of going due to reasons other than performance (injury, etc.) have won?

Another example would be at Stockholm, Trusova blundered in the SP, but did well to recover and place 1st in the FP, however some might make the case that she did get some help in the SP to keep her in contention. If that is the case, Chen would have been closer, but would it have been enough to leapfrog Trusova position wise? Would Hendrickx?

Or for that matter should Sinitsina/Katsalapov have won if Papadakis/Cizeron took part? (I know this is a Ladies Singles thread, but this is just an example of the types of scenarios I'm referring to, since I don't have many to draw upon.)

I don't know enough about scoring to comment (I just enjoy watching), hence why I've put this forth as a question instead of an opinion. Not to mention, I didn't watch FS much during the Sochi era, and can comment on that even less.

I realise that FS is at least partially subjective and we are likely to get many varied opinions (in hindsight, we probably won't get a proper conclusion), but since Russia currently leans more towards short-term success over longevity than the rest of the world, this is the closest solution I can think of to making a pseudo-empirical comparison between the two schools of thought.

 

[el henry]

Better ask, what if she skated during a revolution in figure skating.
You will have your long careers after the technique and the training process stabilize, and it's quite possible that they already did.

The definition of "revolution in figure skating" will change from era to era though.

Some may consider ladies doing an additional revolutions in the air during a jump a "revolution" in figure skating. I do not. Rather, my defiiniton of a revolution in figure skating is skaters who actually caused figure skating to eliminate an entire segment of scoring and institute new segments instead. So how would today's skaters fare against Janet Lynn?

Simply impossible to compare. Better to just take each era as it comes and see what folks 50 years from now look back on as a revolution. Could be this era, or it could be not

ETA: And I don't know if anyone can beat the Russian ladies, because I don't follow the ladies. 1-2-3 at Worlds is pretty impressive, but ice is slippery.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

Maia's pretty tall and she has quads so it's possible.

But I think the next step for Loena is to have a couple of back-to-back clean skates, add another triple-triple combo and backload one of them. That would likely put her equal to or even above Kaori because she has no edge issues.

Maiia K. is only 5 ft 2, she just has long limbs. So she isn't in the "cutoff" height to do a clean quad.

 

[Amei]

: And I don't know if anyone can beat the Russian ladies, because I don't follow the ladies. 1-2-3 at Worlds is pretty impressive, but ice is slippery.

The ice was slippery at worlds most everyone had errors, the Russian ladies just had their problems on more difficult and thus point-forgiving elements.

 

[Novalis]

Maiia K. is only 5 ft 2, she just has long limbs. So she isn't in the "cutoff" height to do a clean quad.

Maiia said in that recent interview that she is 165cm or a bit more. 165cm is 5 ft 5

 

[Bluediamonds09]

Maiia said in that recent interview that she is 165cm or a bit more. 165cm is 5 ft 5

Good for maiia for landing those quads! I'm impressed.

 

[dante]

The definition of "revolution in figure skating" will change from era to era

It doesn't make my point any less valid, though.

 

[el henry]

It doesn't make my point any less valid, though.

Of course, and the point goes both ways. Could Janet Lynn do well in today's era, if she were 16 years old today? Who knows?

Could today's skaters do well if they were 16 years old in Janet Lynn's era? Who knows?

And whichever of those eras is a "revolution" is in the eye of the beholder. But I won't be around 50 years from now to see how anyone labels our skating era today.

 

[4everchan]

Of course, and the point goes both ways. Could Janet Lynn do well in today's era, if she were 16 years old today? Who knows?

Could today's skaters do well if they were 16 years old in Janet Lynn's era? Who knows?

And whichever of those eras is a "revolution" is in the eye of the beholder. But I won't be around 50 years from now to see how anyone labels our skating era today.

see.. when i think of a revolution in ladies skating, I think of Midori Ito. Quads are getting landed now, but they were tried when i was still a kid (Bonaly for instance). I already said my bit about who I believe can beat or not beat the Russian ladies. I also agree that at this point, there is a new era in ladies skating and it is expected when things are fresh and new that longevity may not be a focus. And of course, if we are looking for young and powerful skaters with quads, and the investment is for a couple seasons only, then only Russia can achieve that... perhaps Japan. The other countries do not have depth to produce so many contenders. This being said, it doesn't mean a skater like Loena or Kaetlyn (like she did in 2017 and 2018) or Karen/Bradie cannot make it to the podium, granted that she has the skate of the event and others do not land everything.. It happens every year or just about.

 

[Mathman]

Another example would be at Stockholm, Trusova blundered in the SP, but did well to recover and place 1st in the FP, however some might make the case that she did get some help in the SP to keep her in contention.

Thank you for the thoughtful posts. Just to respond to this one question, I think it has always been the case, whatever scoring system is in place, that the title contenders are held up in the prliminary phases (now the short program). Michelle Kwan against Tara Lipinsky at 1997 Worlds, for instance. I think this is just human nature -- we know that the great skaters are great, so we don't hold uncharacteristic errors against them so much. Plus, as a sporting event, the fans have come to see the great champion slug it out with the rising star. If one of them is hopelessly far behind after the short program, the fans will have no reason to come back for the anticlimactic long.

Basketball great Wilt Chamberlain never fouled out of a game (1045 games). Why not? Because the fans paid to see Chamberlain play basketball, not to see him sit on the bench with 6 fouls.

 

[Mathman]

And whichever of those eras is a "revolution" is in the eye of the beholder.

Although ... the word "revolution" does have a well defined meaning. Here ts means turning the sport on its head. (I always thought this phenomenon should be called a half-revolution, but oh well.)

By this definition the Janet Lynn revolution (spearhended by ISU executive Sonia Bianchetti) was a true revolution. They threw out the heart and soul of fiugure skating (that is, tracing geometric figures on the ice) and replaced it with graceful artistic movement (what Jackson Haines called "fancy skating" in the 1800s). Out with the ancien regime, in with the bourgeoisie.

Passing from a sport where triple jumps are prized to one where quads are prized more -- that seems more like an evolution.

Unless the claim is that it is the Eteri teaching method that constitutes the revolution, upending all previous coaching technique. One could point out, for instance, that if any one skater deserves credit for the sudden outburst of lady's quads, it is Trusova. Yet she has never won a world or Olympic championship, and is regarded as an underdog to Valieva for next year. She is Moses, not Joshua.

 

[lesnar001]

By this definition the Janet Lynn revolution (spearhended by ISU executive Sonia Bianchetti) was a true revolution. They threw out the heart and soul of fiugure skating (that is, tracing geometric figures on the ice) and replaced it with graceful artistic movement (what Jackson Haines called "fancy skating" in the 1800s). Out with the ancien regime, in with the bourgeoisie.

I think another "revolution" would have been changing the scoring from factored placements to a numerical score.
A poor short program under the "old" system basically ended any chance to win the competition (or even medal for that matter).

A good example would be just this past Worlds with Sasha Trusova winning the Bronze medal after finishing 12th in the SP.

 

[dante]

I won't be around 50 years from now to see how anyone labels our skating era today.

However, we have a precedent. What happened in the late 18th century was labelled then "industrial revolution", but today it's seen as just another few years in the continuous exponential technological advancement.

The difference is, figure skating doesn't develop exponentially. We aren't going to see sextuple jumps anytime soon. And today we are probably witnessing the biggest technical step forward until the introduction of bionics, genetic engineering or skating in a different gravity.

 

[el henry]

However, we have a precedent. What happened in the late 18th century was labelled then "industrial revolution", but today it's seen as just another few years in the continuous exponential technological advancement.

The difference is, figure skating doesn't develop exponentially. We aren't going to see sextuple jumps anytime soon. And today we are probably witnessing the biggest technical step forward until the introduction of bionics, genetic engineering or skating in a different gravity.

I think we may be considering two different points as the "industrial revolution" however.

For me, the true "industrial revolution": changing the structure of the competition, thanks to Janet Lynn (and my OG Toller Cranston ) We do not hold school figures or measure figures today; at one point, that was the majority of a skater's score.

For me, another rotation in the air is not analogous to the industrial revolution. The first person to land a quad is not a "revolution", as admirable as that achievement may be. Eliminating school figures is.

So that is where we differ, I think, because I don't want to put words in your mouth, but it sounds as though you may think of skaters doing extra rotations as a "revolution" whereas I do not.

And that's where the judgment of history, 50 years hence, will tell.

 

[dante]

For me, the true "industrial revolution": changing the structure of the competition

I specifically said "step forward", because moving from triples to quads per se is one without any doubt, while changing the rules is rather a side step in search for a better path.

The first person to land a quad is not a "revolution"

I'm not saying a record makes a revolution. Miki Ando set the record, but the revolution happened 16 years later, when in just two years a dozen ladies learned and started performing quads.