2021-22 Russian Women's Figure Skating

[sclloyd]

Anna's scores were from worlds not russian nationals. Your "method" in the scoring sheets you linked involves giving Kamila higher GOE than she actually got in competition and then saying "why does she get such higher GOE than Anna or Alena, they would never get such scores" ... well that's why. With my method which is using actual scores for elements you see how similar the scores are.

You can't compare the free scores so easily because the GOEs get rescaled and it's impossible to get the factored GOE Kamila gets on quads with at 3T. And Kamila's free skate with 4 Ultra-C elements have more opportunities for high GOE than Alena's with only two. Alena getting +5 on a 3F gets less GOE than Kamila getting a +3 on 4S. I can go calculate the raw GOE they got on each jumping pass and apply it to their free skates to get an accurate number but sorry for not trusting your "method."

Sasha in 2019? You really think that's the standard? Sasha fell in every single competition of 2019 except Ondrej Nepela Trophy and Junior nationals. And Sasha today is overscored too even relative to other Russians just not as much as Kamila or Anna. Do you really think she deserved to lead Usacheva after the short program at Skate America given they both have one solo jump with wrong edge and Usacheva's superiority in every other element and skating skills/transitions/performance?

I gave Kamila roughly the same non-weighted GOE for lower level elements. If she got on average a 4 from the judges for a 4T then I applied an average of 4 for the 3T. I did the same with Aliona-- if she got an average of 3 for the 3A, then the 2A likewise received an average of 3. The way that particular calculator works is to automatically consider weighting for different jump element BVs. So there is no need to calculate the raw jumping GOE after its weighted. You simply need to consider the average pre-weighted value.

No, I think that Aliona and Anna in 2019 were much better than her. BUT I also do not think that Aliona and Maia this season are near where Sasha was in 2019, and yet she scored roughly the same as them.

And no, I don't think that Daria is really superior in everything else. She is good, very lovely to watch. Emotionally more connected to her music. But her program was not near as complete for me as Frida is. She maybe gets better jump transitions and interpretation for me. Though I'm particularly not a big fan of her back spiral into the 2A, I can respect at least that many like it. But I think Frida is a better program and deserved to beat out Daria's. If the scores had been drastically different, then no I don't think it would've been deserved to be that much higher, but I thought that Skate America was actually a pretty fair competition scoring wise compared to what we've seen this season.

 

[lurkerghost1]

Judges are giving theirs opinion on the things defined by the recommendations, not by their own views. By having nine judges in the panel, and not using all the judge's mark in the final scores with devaluating the opposites, is making it quite an objective in the end. And judges are the one who give a final decision in every sport, we like it or not. Do you remember that in an 'objective sport' as you are calling them a player scored a goal with his hand and win a title for his nation?

We don't like it. It is not "objective" in the end because it is well known the judges meet together before and pre-rank the top skaters. That is why the only times you see significant judge deviation are when 1) it's super super close 2) the skater did something to piss the judges off like Plushenko 2010 comments about transitions or 3) a previously unknown skater has a sudden breakthrough and the judges don't know what to do cuz they didn't plan it out in advance (seriously go look at Olga Mikutina's scores at world, the judges have no clue what to do with her because she was not in the pre-event scoring conversation). The same thing happens in gymnastics by the way, the judges go to podium training and pre-score routines. this is well known.

After 2002 and 2014 I cannot take anyone seriously who uses the opinion of judges as a serious criteria of who is right and who is wrong. They are just as biased as fans, maybe moreso.

That being said the other poster has some anti-Kamila bias which is why I use the judges' scores to show how she gets very comparable treatment to Alena and Anna.

 

[alexocfp]

Once in a lifetime talent, and Forever

Time to bring an epic video that gives me chills every time, and to specify that not everyone discounts Sasha
Up until now I'm looking forward to the sequel(s) like mad ! Alexandra will fulfill it (and has already done so in tests).

Only a matter of time on the "space rocket reassembly", with her little touch of cruelty

Make no mistake, I want Sasha to fulfill her potential. I’ve said it a million times: more great skaters makes everyone great. Competition is good. I want every event to have as many gold medal contenders as
possible. That‘s why I said so far, it can easily change.

But, I’m a results guy. I favor gold over potential. And it’s not a good look for a lifetime talent to be placing behind someone at the end of their career with no quads at the world championships.

Especially when you see how Kamila dusted Liza at the GP’s in her first season.

 

[alexocfp]

We don't like it. It is not "objective" in the end because it is well known the judges meet together before and pre-rank the top skaters.

After 2002 and 2014 I cannot take anyone seriously who uses the opinion of judges as a serious criteria of who is right and who is wrong. They are just as biased as fans, maybe moreso.

I love the current scoring system. Favors those attempting and landing the
big jumps. The scoring system created this skating renaissance and brought skating into the 21st century.

Nothing happened in 2014. One skater won a close call over another. Nothing may have happened in 2002 as well. Everything was based on rumors and allegations and nothing was ever been proven conclusively.

And the judges meeting doesn‘t mean there is any nefarious dealings.

And you don‘t have to take me seriously, but the judges are right since it is they who provide the official results. The only results that matter. No matter how many times they get maligned or slandered. They aren‘t perfect. but they are more perfect than the people commenting on the judging.

 

[sclloyd]

I love the current scoring system. Favors those attempting and landing the n
big jumps. The scoring system created this skating renaissance and brought skating into the 21st century.

Nothing happened in 2014. One skater won a close call over another. Nothing may have happened in 2002 as well. Everything was based on rumors and allegations and nothing was ever been proven conclusively.

And the judges meeting doesn‘t mean there is any nefarious dealings.

And you don‘t have to take me seriously, but the judges are right since it is they who provide the official results. The only results that matter. No matter how many times they get maligned or slandered. They aren‘t perfect. but they are more perfect than the people commenting on the judging.

didn't you just say you don't like potential only results? now you say you favor a system because it favors potential?

if the judges are impartial then why do they need to meet to discuss scoring before the actual scoring? wouldn't the most impartial thing be to discuss nothing? why give the illusion at all if you aren't actually fixing scoring?

as for sochi, well that has been exhausted by entire YouTube channels. there were very clearly scoring issues.

 

[lurkerghost1]

I love the current scoring system. Favors those attempting and landing the n
big jumps. The scoring system created this skating renaissance and brought skating into the 21st century.

Agree.

Nothing happened in 2014. One skater won a close call over another. Nothing may have happened in 2002 as well. Everything was based on rumors and allegations and nothing was ever been proven conclusively.

"Nothing happened in 2014" I genuinely would like you to explain your take on this then. The same thing happens with Diana Davis now and everyone knows it but no one is stopping anything because Zagorski/Guerrero have a fraction of the political power.

"Nothing may have happened in 2002" it doesn't even matter if the rumors were true or not - there was an official acknowledgment that the judges' word is not final, that they can be just as biased, and the "solution" the IOC came up with just made the entire credibility of the sport even more of a joke. two gold medals...for that terrible Sale/Petilier program. EITHER you believe there was a fix by Russia OR a fix by North America to get S/P a totally unjust gold medal, so in the end no one can come away thinking the final result was fair.

And the judges meeting doesn‘t mean there is any nefarious dealings.

And you don‘t have to take me seriously, but the judges are right since it is they who provide the official results. The only results that matter. No matter how many times they get maligned or slandered. They aren‘t perfect. but they are more perfect than the people commenting on the judging.

They are "right" in that sense but that doesn't mean they are fair. That is the nature of judged sports and politics. They are not any more perfect than commenters, if that was the case gymnastics and figure skating would have never overhauled their scoring systems. Sometimes the judges' results are just so opposed to common sense that it forces an acknowledgment that something is wrong. For example see Olga Kapranova's ribbon routine at 2005 World Rhythmic Gymnastics Championships.

 

[lurkerghost1]

I gave Kamila roughly the same non-weighted GOE for lower level elements. If she got on average a 4 from the judges for a 4T then I applied an average of 4 for the 3T. I did the same with Aliona-- if she got an average of 3 for the 3A, then the 2A likewise received an average of 3. The way that particular calculator works is to automatically consider weighting for different jump element BVs. So there is no need to calculate the raw jumping GOE after its weighted. You simply need to consider the average pre-weighted value.

No, I think that Aliona and Anna in 2019 were much better than her. BUT I also do not think that Aliona and Maia this season are near where Sasha was in 2019, and yet she scored roughly the same as them.

And no, I don't think that Daria is really superior in everything else. She is good, very lovely to watch. Emotionally more connected to her music. But her program was not near as complete for me as Frida is. She maybe gets better jump transitions and interpretation for me. Though I'm particularly not a big fan of her back spiral into the 2A, I can respect at least that many like it. But I think Frida is a better program and deserved to beat out Daria's. If the scores had been drastically different, then no I don't think it would've been deserved to be that much higher, but I thought that Skate America was actually a pretty fair competition scoring wise compared to what we've seen this season.

Frida is a better program so Sasha wins composition, totally agree. Daria's program is very boring. But I think Daria is ahead in the other 4 PCS sections. She got a "new senior" deduction

Daria's 2A is on another level from Sasha: bigger, amazing landing, way more difficult transitions (Sasha has no difficult entrance because set up for 3A).
Daria's solo 3Lze is still a better jump than Sasha's solo 3Fe with the more difficult entrance and much more upright landing.
The combos - both very big with very difficult transitions, but Daria's landing once again is so much better, Sasha barely hangs on the landing (probably because of her broken foot, normally the landing is more controlled) and Daria's posture on landing is amazing.
Spins - Daria clear advantage.
Steps - We will agree to disagree here because while you highlight many nice aspect of Sasha's step sequence, I think she's only holding a deep edge on skating in between turns and during actual turns she has quite a shallow edge such as in the counterclockwise loop. She has a nice Mohawk I think but the other turns are average which to be fair is an improvement from a few years ago...she also does not engage her core as well as Kamila in several turns and ends up hunched in my opinion.

 

[alexocfp]

didn't you just say you don't like potential only results? now you say you favor a system because it favors potential?

if the judges are impartial then why do they need to meet to discuss scoring before the actual scoring? wouldn't the most impartial thing be to discuss nothing? why give the illusion at all if you aren't actually fixing scoring?

as for sochi, well that has been exhausted by entire YouTube channels. there were very clearly scoring issues.

No, I favor this scoring system because it produces Kamila skates and Anna‘s national championship skates. That’s not potential, that’s production.

 

[Globetrotter]

I'm surprised you say that Sasha's 3F is not as good as Kamila's when the F/Lz are really Kamila's weakest jumps. Are you assuming Sasha gets an edge call? I'd also rate Trusova higher in transitions than Kamila, except maybe the exit that people said she "stole" from Zhenya. I think the Cruella program has a much better layout than Bolero, and is more interesting, so I'd also give her composition. I also disagree that Sasha has worse skating skills. If I watch their two programs side by side, Sasha can hold a deeper edge with more speed for much longer than Kamila can and it takes her three to four crossovers to get more speed than Kamila does on four or five. This is most notable in Kamila's choreo sequence -- four crossovers to spread eagle to another four crossovers to like feeling herself I guess, to another four crossovers into the 4T-Eu-3S (where she put both her feet down on in the Eu at Rostelecom btw) to another four crossovers to a mostly flat edged spiral to another four crossovers to the next combo jump (with the wobbly edge thing) and then again crossovers into the step sequence. Somehow Sasha has managed to make her twizzle better than Kamila's first twizzle set, where you can tell her blade gets "stuck". In Sasha's few spirals, she has enough momentum still to go into an element or another spiral without having to take an entire loop around the ice to get back her speed. I think this is most obvious for Kamila's back edges. Viewing the step sequences side by side I also note that Sasha has generally deeper edges. I would give interpretation and then performance to Kamila.

The primary problem for Sasha is that she was NOT a high PCS skater and while she has worked extraordinarily hard to correct that in the last year or two and judges have not been receptive to her very obvious improvements in those areas. I think she should be a high PCS skater, so the issue is then her spins. Her layback is still very weak and she could easily get a level downgraded there since she almost always barely scrapes by the 2 rotation min for the Biellmann position.

There are unfortunately 5 PCS components. Sasha IMO has pretty good SS and decent TR. CO is hit and miss. Where she tends to be weakest is in the PE and especially IN. The tough thing is PCS scoring just does not quite reflect the differences and I think that really confuses skaters on what they need to work on. The old Alyona and Sasha are probably the strongest in SS. Anna, Darya are definitely weaker there but much stronger in IN and musicality. Liza Tuks has probably the best PE in my subjective mind but her SS is……a joke.

 

[starlight97]

Why is everyone so sure Liza will be on the team bearing Phoenix-like, once in a lifetime performances from Alena or Sasha? Cause she has been consistent in 2 international competitions and some commentators without any decision making power have said they would like to see an older woman on the team?

I think neither Sasha nor Alena have skated anywhere near their potential in competition this season so far, while Liza is completely maxed out and can only keep up that level (which is statistically unlikely, at some point she has to make a mistake like any human) or decline. RusFed also has never shown to favor her, they have always only sent her anywhere when there was really no other option available.
Sasha and Alena will come out fighting as if it was for their lives at Nationals (and so will Maya) and they both have the potential to outscore her comfortably if they're on. Is it so unlikely that one of them will be? I don't think so.
Doesn't hurt to be an Eteri girl either.
I see the 3rd completly open and even the 2nd spot isn't that secured either to me.

 

[Tokyo Drift]

Make no mistake, I want Sasha to fulfill her potential. I’ve said it a million times: more great skaters makes everyone great. Competition is good. I want every event to have as many gold medal contenders as
possible. That‘s why I said so far, it can easily change.

But, I’m a results guy. I favor gold over potential. And it’s not a good look for a lifetime talent to be placing behind someone at the end of their career with no quads at the world championships.

Especially when you see how Kamila dusted Liza at the GP’s in her first season.

Making no mistake ; I know well and respect your way of seeing things.
I assume mine to be totally subjective, unfairly passionate and declining any technical consideration (for real ) which allows me to have the heart beating & chills as strong for "second tier", "fallen stars" & those who will statistically never make a podium (disclaimer : not pretending you don't).

I'm not a result guy so I wouldn't go after you on the numbers, even if at that world championships our dearest Alexandra went from the 12th place in SP to a prestigious placing first in the FS with no need to specify above whom and how brilliant.

Now she has unfortunately missed her second GP I will not venture to favor anything, except she is a pioneer who won't let her chance go by.


P.-S. I wouldn't bet the end of someone's career no matter what have been said in interviews, her fire is far from being extinguished
P.-S. Just be extra careful with the betting odds

 

[Tomadeur]

Why is everyone so sure Liza will be on the team bearing Phoenix-like, once in a lifetime performances from Alena or Sasha? Cause she has been consistent in 2 international competitions and some commentators without any decision making power have said they would like to see an older woman on the team?

I think neither Sasha nor Alena have skated anywhere near their potential in competition this season so far, while Liza is completely maxed out and can only keep up that level (which is statistically unlikely, at some point she has to make a mistake like any human) or decline. RusFed also has never shown to favor her, they have always only sent her anywhere when there was really no other option available.
Sasha and Alena will come out fighting as if it was for their lives at Nationals (and so will Maya) and they both have the potential to outscore her comfortably if they're on. Is it so unlikely that one of them will be? I don't think so.
Doesn't hurt to be an Eteri girl either.
I see the 3rd completly open and even the 2nd spot isn't that secured either to me.

Most comments I read see a chance for Sasha and - to a lesser extent - for Alena to be selected to the olympic team, but they see Liza as frontrunner right now based on performance - as do I. Alena and Sasha have to show something to get ahead of Liza.

Liza hasn't only the highest score of this season out of three, but also was the most consistent and beat Alena in two direct competitions. So Alena has to get close to a score of 230 at nationals and be ahead of Liza that her nomination is even worth a discussion imho. Because of her potential Sasha has a chance to be nominated even without her beating Liza at nationals, but she must hope for the favor of the federation if she doesn't beat Liza and scores a seasons best at nationals. If Sasha wouldn't have failed to reach her potential in most big events I would be more willing to give her the benefit of doubt and would see her probably ahead even with the performances this season but that's just not the case.

Spoiler: Scores this season

Sasha's scores:

• US Classic - 216,80
• Skate America - 232.37

Alena's scores:

• Finlandia Trophy - 218.83
• Skate Canada - 214.54
• Internationaux de France - 221.85

Liza's scores:

• Finlandia Trophy - 233.30
• Skate Canada - 232,88
• Rostelcom - 229.23

 

[starlight97]

Most comments I read see a chance for Sasha and - to a lesser extent - for Alena to be selected to the olympic team, but they see Liza as frontrunner right now based on performance - as do I. Alena and Sasha have to show something to get ahead of Liza.

Liza hasn't only the highest score of this season out of three, but also was the most consistent and beat Alena in two direct competitions. So Alena has to get close to a score of 230 at nationals and be ahead of Liza that her nomination is even worth a discussion imho. Because of her potential Sasha has a chance to be nominated even without her beating Liza at nationals, but she must hope for the favor of the federation if she doesn't beat Liza and scores a seasons best at nationals. If Sasha wouldn't have failed to reach her potential in most big events I would be more willing to give her the benefit of doubt and would see her probably ahead even with the performances this season but that's just not the case.

Yes but my point is not that I think Sasha, Alena or Maya would be selected over Liza even if they place lower than her at Nationals- I do not think that. My point is that I can see any of them, tho most likely Alena or Sasha, place ahead of her, if they skate to their full potential. Even with a minor error like, say, Alena stepping out of one 3A.
Liza has the highest score out of these 3 so far this season, precisely because she is completely maxed out while Sasha and Alena have skated nowhere near their maximum.
Sasha has had 1 big international competition this season at which she was injured and only jumped one 4.
Alena has been struggling back into form since leaving Plushenko, has changed her entire programs and music in the middle of the season and just seemed not quiet ready yet at her GPs.
You can't compare these scores to Liza's best in terms of potential for the Olympics.
I can see both or either of them getting it together for Nationals.
That's why I'm saying - I don't feel like it's Liza's to lose and these two would have to show anything unheard of. They "just" need to be on and I think RusFed will be very happy to send them and give Eteri that Olympic podium sweep

 

[Artemisa]

Yes but my point is not that I think Sasha, Alena or Maya would be selected over Liza even if they place lower than her at Nationals- I do not think that. My point is that I can see any of them, tho most likely Alena or Sasha, place ahead of her, if they skate to their full potential. Even with a minor error like, say, Alena stepping out of one 3A.
Liza has the highest score out of these 3 so far this season, precisely because she is completely maxed out while Sasha and Alena have skated nowhere near their maximum.
Sasha has had 1 big international competition this season at which she was injured and only jumped one 4.
Alena has been struggling back into form since leaving Plushenko, has changed her entire programs and music in the middle of the season and just seemed not quiet ready yet at her GPs.
You can't compare these scores to Liza's best in terms of potential for the Olympics.
I can see both or either of them getting it together for Nationals.
That's why I'm saying - I don't feel like it's Liza's to lose and these two would have to show anything unheard of. They "just" need to be on and I think RusFed will be very happy to send them and give Eteri that Olympic podium sweep

I agree.. Liza is at her best and depends on 3A .. Alena and sasha score's weren't her best .. if they get to her best .. they will beat Liza

 

[Dawn825]

Why is everyone so sure Liza will be on the team bearing Phoenix-like, once in a lifetime performances from Alena or Sasha? Cause she has been consistent in 2 international competitions and some commentators without any decision making power have said they would like to see an older woman on the team?

I think neither Sasha nor Alena have skated anywhere near their potential in competition this season so far, while Liza is completely maxed out and can only keep up that level (which is statistically unlikely, at some point she has to make a mistake like any human) or decline. RusFed also has never shown to favor her, they have always only sent her anywhere when there was really no other option available.
Sasha and Alena will come out fighting as if it was for their lives at Nationals (and so will Maya) and they both have the potential to outscore her comfortably if they're on. Is it so unlikely that one of them will be? I don't think so.
Doesn't hurt to be an Eteri girl either.
I see the 3rd completly open and even the 2nd spot isn't that secured either to me.

I'm pretty sure Liza is 9/9 on int'l 3As this season, while Aliona is like 1/4. Makes more sense to assume Liza will be at her best for nationals than Aliona unfortunately. Sasha on the other hand just has to return to her SkAm condition to knock Liza out probably, unless the rumors of Liza being backed by the fed are true.

 

[sclloyd]

I'm pretty sure Liza is 9/9 on int'l 3As this season, while Aliona is like 1/4. Makes more sense to assume Liza will be at her best for nationals than Aliona unfortunately. Sasha on the other hand just has to return to her SkAm condition to knock Liza out probably, unless the rumors of Liza being backed by the fed are true.

Theoretically, Aliona should be a much better PCS skater than Liza when prepared but TT really bit their own nose off to spite Aliona by talking poorly about her in the media. They probably thought “we have five others, she doesn’t matter” and then 2 got injured and Maia didn’t get as consistent as they thought she’d be. Funny that as soon as Daria and Sasha both missed NHK that the Fed ran to the media to give Aliona good PR.

I think Aliona is better in a number of categories than Liza and her scores don’t reflect that, even if she does have a technical deficit. Winter + that dress was also a horrible strategic choice that really harmed her from the very start of the season. It made her look slower than ever.

A good learning lesson in respecting your students in public when your scoring is 90% reputation based.

 

[Draculus]

"Nothing happened in 2014" I genuinely would like you to explain your take on this then.

you don't believe in a skater progress on a 1 year scope?

The same thing happens with Diana Davis now and everyone knows it but no one is stopping anything because Zagorski/Guerrero have a fraction of the political power.

Looks like a conspiracy theory for me. Human brains are vulnerable to apophenia.

 

[skylark]

Theoretically, Aliona should be a much better PCS skater than Liza when prepared but TT really bit their own nose off to spite Aliona by talking poorly about her in the media. They probably thought “we have five others, she doesn’t matter” and then 2 got injured and Maia didn’t get as consistent as they thought she’d be. Funny that as soon as Daria and Sasha both missed NHK that the Fed ran to the media to give Aliona good PR.

I think Aliona is better in a number of categories than Liza and her scores don’t reflect that, even if she does have a technical deficit. Winter + that dress was also a horrible strategic choice that really harmed her from the very start of the season. It made her look slower than ever.

A good learning lesson in respecting your students in public when your scoring is 90% reputation based.

This is an excellent post. 100% agree.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think Aliona is better in a number of categories than Liza and her scores don’t reflect that, even if she does have a technical deficit. Winter + that dress was also a horrible strategic choice that really harmed her from the very start of the season. It made her look slower than ever.

I 100% agree. However, PCS is often a "momentum" score, in which it tends to climb when skaters put out consistently strong programs and start to be seen as serious contenders. We saw this with Miki Ando in 2011, Julia L in 2013-14, and Alina in 2018. Once Alena starts replicating her form from two years ago, I expect both of her marks will skyrocket.

 

[alexocfp]

Theoretically, Aliona should be a much better PCS skater than Liza when prepared but TT really bit their own nose off to spite Aliona by talking poorly about her in the media. They probably thought “we have five others, she doesn’t matter” and then 2 got injured and Maia didn’t get as consistent as they thought she’d be. Funny that as soon as Daria and Sasha both missed NHK that the Fed ran to the media to give Aliona good PR.

I think Aliona is better in a number of categories than Liza and her scores don’t reflect that, even if she does have a technical deficit. Winter + that dress was also a horrible strategic choice that really harmed her from the very start of the season. It made her look slower than ever.

A good learning lesson in respecting your students in public when your scoring is 90% reputation based.

I have a vivid imagination. Can I try my hand at a theoretical or 2?

Theoretically, Liza can be a 8 time world gold medalist, an Olympic gold medalist in 3 disciplines, and a 2 time Olympic gold medalist in the pole vault. Heck, let’s make her a gold medalist in luge while we are at it. Haha

Don‘t know why some Aliona fans are bitter about Liza. Be good sports and congratulate Liza for being better for a year and a half. And for being able to compete at a high level a decade into her career. Or don’t. Doesn’t change the results which is what matters the most anyway.

I know that I’ll be one of the first to congratulate Aliona if she manages to beat Liza before Liza retires or beats her for the Olympic spot.