A lot is riding on one very simple question: Was there an anti-doping violation or not?
If the answer is No, then everything else goes away, Russia (or the ROC, whatever) is off the hook, everybody keeps their medals and the athlete involved gets to compete. I expect that Russia has been using every possible excuse and loophole to make this happen. In lock step, the Russia apologists in media, on this forum, and elsewhere are predictably bending over backwards to offer up supportive options (such as the test was a lie, it was in December, migraines, not a performance enhancing drug, it was just a small amount, etc. etc ad nauseum). IMO, most of these all rank on the Irrelevant to Laughable scale....and yet with the IOC (and to some extent, ISU) showing evidence the last decade of being very pliable to Russian pressure, it's still possible we will get a No Violation decision. I'm sure the IOC realizes it has boxed itself into a corner, as a decision letting the Russians off the hook entirely will shred their credibility even further.
If the answer is Yes, then it becomes a matter of degrees of Yes. In some ways, Russia has boxed itself into that same corner, because a Protected Athlete (due to age) is essentially automatically deemed to be not 100% responsible for whatever violation happened, meaning that some adult(s) have to pick up some percentage--probably a great percentage--of the responsibility for the violation. Furthermore, the entire training situation of said Protected Athlete has to be scrutinized closely. This means that the hunt will be on for a scapegoat or two. Parents? Coaches? Doctor? Which adults will end up tainted/sacrificed? Will someone fall on their sword for the good of Mother Russia? Will there be some sort of suspension of the athlete, including or not including further Olympic competition? A removal of Europeans medal? Close examination/more testing of other skaters in that training environment? To maintain credibility with the rest of the world, it would seem the IOC will need to make some ruling that will not be beneficial to somebody in Russian skating circles.
I believe the IOC delay in getting this resolved is due to their frantic search for a compromise that will make everyone happy, and there probably isn't one. But the longer the lack of decision goes on, the more untenable their position will be.