2022-23 Russian Women's Figure Skating

[AlexBreeze]

She could not beat Anna without a 3-3 ever in the free as Anna’s free is a stronger program even if Ultra-c is removed while Liza’s is not.

She lost 15 points to Anna. Fall on a 3A in SP (~7 points loss), doubled combo in SP (~3 points loss), layback spin (0,3 points loss), ur on a 3A in FS (~4,5 points loss), messed up combo spin in FS (~2 points loss).

A “2A+3S” is not a 3-3 combo and is actually a very low base value combo in comparison to most high level 3-3 jumps. I am talking about 3-3 combos advantage not 2-3 combos or 3-2 combos which have the same low points result and is a great issue with international female skaters. At worlds this year without Russians not a single international skater (other than a Russian lady Gubanova) had a clean 3-3 which was a shame and shows you the clear advantage Liza had internationally. Domestically in Russia 3-2 is not enough anymore.

The difference between a solo 2A in the first half + a 3Lz-Eu-3S in the second half and a solo 3Lz in the first half + 2A-Eu-3S in the second half is only 0.26 points. In the first case, the GOE is calculated from the base values of 2A and 3Lz, and in the second case from the base values of 3Lz and 3S.
For example, we have two skaters. The first skater did a 2A in the first half and a 3Lz-Eu-3S in the second half, she received +3 GOE for both, her score for these elements is 17.83. The second one did a 3Lz in the first half and a 2A-Eu-3S in the second half, she also received +3 GOE for both, her score for these lements is 17.87. This is the reason why Trusova does 2A-3T.
3-3 in a free doesn't give an advantage, 2-3 is good as well. The main thing is to do 8 triples if a skater has a 3A (or 7 triples if not).

When Aliona had her 3A she STILL did 3-3 combos along with it and she did not hide behind it.

Alena's BV of FS jumps in 2019/20 season is 53.55, Liza's BV of FS jumps with 3Lz-3T is 53.49. BV of Liza's layout with 3Lz-2A is 50.9 which is of course is considerably less. But in all cases she lost by her own mistakes, not because of the loss of 2.59 in her base value.

 

[Alex Fedorov]

It's not someone else keeping her down or that she can't truly catch a break. It is literally herself who is bombing for some type of reason SPECIFICALLY when it counts at RusNationals.

I used to feel very sad that she never got a chance UNTIL I reviewed ALL of her RUSnats programs and realized this was not the case.

Here is a breakdown of her own self sabotage at RusNats below (even if she was doing great in GPs, and worlds for some reason she always breaks down at Russian Nationals. It is a pattern over and over and over):

I don't understand Liza's motivation in your theory. Do you think that she was so afraid of losing at international competitions that she deliberately failed the selection? But Sakamoto, for example, was only able to surpass Lisa's maximum score at the last World Championship (and I would say that this was a controversial score).

Also, from today's perspective, we understand that Liza at Olympics would have to fight Kaori Sakamoto and Wakaba Higuchi for third place. But if you mentally return to December 2021 and cross Kamila out of the team, it turns out that in this team left Shcherbakova, who does not look strong this season, and Trusova, who recently had an injury, and in general she is not very stable. Even at that time it was possible to predict that she would not succeed in 3A in the short program, and five quads is always a risk.

In fact, it was reminiscent of the 2021 World Championship, when Tuktamysheva received silver (plus, together with Anna, she received gold in the team tournament in Japan). Well, what's wrong with competing for at least bronze, and with luck, for silver?

 

[Amei]

I don't understand Liza's motivation in your theory. Do you think that she was so afraid of losing at international competitions that she deliberately failed the selection? But Sakamoto, for example, was only able to surpass Lisa's maximum score at the last World Championship (and I would say that this was a controversial score).

Also, from today's perspective, we understand that Liza at Olympics would have to fight Kaori Sakamoto and Wakaba Higuchi for third place. But if you mentally return to December 2021 and cross Kamila out of the team, it turns out that in this team left Shcherbakova, who does not look strong this season, and Trusova, who recently had an injury, and in general she is not very stable. Even at that time it was possible to predict that she would not succeed in 3A in the short program, and five quads is always a risk.

In fact, it was reminiscent of the 2021 World Championship, when Tuktamysheva received silver (plus, together with Anna, she received gold in the team tournament in Japan). Well, what's wrong with competing for at least bronze, and with luck, for silver?

I don't particularly agree with the thought that Tuktamysheva gave up after the SP mistake at Nationals....Tuktamysheva has typically not done well at Nationals, looking at her Nationals results since she moved to only skating internationally as a senior which was the 2012-2013 season, that's 9 nationals appearances (1 WD or it would be 10), she's only placed in the top 5 three times - 12/13 season (1st place), 14/15 season (2nd),19/20 (4th) all the other years its been 7th or worse. The 3 Olympic seasons her nationals results have been 10th, and 2 7th place finishes. So maybe the point is more of that she's not a 'clutch' skater that when the moment matters most can't do what's needed?

Overall for her career I think Tuktamysheva's issue is that she/her coach aren't forward thinking, Crystal skaters are trained on the system to gain the most points, it started with Medvedeva doing arms over the head on almost (if not all) her jumps to get extra GOE, then it was back-loading everything, back-loading 2 of their combinations after the ISU limited the bonus for back-loading, then it was Trusova and Shcherbakova doing quads. The latter of which, Trusova/Shcherbakova quads, they weren't quiet about that, everyone not just Tuktamysheva, seemed to ignore that they were doing quads and were clearly going to be at the very least attempting them as seniors and instead seemed to gamble that they would lose them as they started to go through puberty. Tuktamysheva in the 2019-2020 season pretty quickly jumped up to matching Kostornaia on doing 3 triple axels across both segments, she seemed to gain quads in practice within a few months after talking about starting to train them and that's great but its always made me wonder - why didn't they push for doing 1-2 triple axels in the FS? Her World championship season (based on Worlds protocols) she did the triple axel in the SP only.

All in all Nationals this past year was worst case scenario for Tuktamysheva, she wasn't flawless, which she needs to be given her BV disadvantage to the other top Russians. And then the skater that under-performed of the top 3 was the 3-time defending Sr. national champion and defending world champ.

 

[uwoawuwoa]

Worlds 2022, Women's Short Program:

1. Kaori Sakamoto: 3F+3T, GOE: 2.12
2. Loena Hendrickx: 3Lz+3T, GOE: 0.76
5. Alysa Liu: 3Lz+3T, GOE: 1.18
6. Nicole Schott: 3F+3T, GOE: 0.98
7. Wakaba Higuchi: 3Lz+3T, GOE: 1.35
9. Ekaterina Ryabova: 3Lz+3T, GOE: 0.51
14. Anastasiia Gubanova: 3Lz+3T, GOE: 0.17
15. Olga Mikutina: 3F+3T, GOE: 1.21
19. Julia Sauter: 3T+3T, GOE: 0.72
23. Dasa Grm: 3T+3T, GOE: 0.96
30. Marilena Kitromilis: 3Lz+3T, GOE: 0.75

Note that I only counted those jumps without !, q or UR signs and with positive GOE. Even 30th place had a clean 3-3 in the Short, and a 3Lz+3T no less. Maybe check if the claims you make are actually true before you make them?

I guess, if we want to be stingy, we could be taking the FS as an example, where there where indeed less 3-3 attempted and cleanly landed. But even then you have Sakamoto (3F+3T), Liu (3Lz+Eu+3S), Gubanova (3F+3T, 3Lz+3T), You (3Lz+Eu+3S), Kurakova (3Lz+Eu+3F), Ryabova (3Lz+3T), Mikutina (3Lz+3T) and Petrokiina (3Lz+Eu+3S), who all did triple triples with positive GOE.

So, really, I know y'all want to argue how terribly weak the field is without Russia but at least present the facts. Thanks.

As for the other arguments you're making - it makes no difference if you jump 2A+3T or 2A+Eu+3S vs. 3Lz+3T and 3Lz+Eu+3S because the GOE factors differently. For example, a layout of 3Lz+2T, 3F, 3Lo, 3F+3T, 3Lz+Eu+3S, 2A, 2A (bonus not included) has the same BV of 43.70 as 3Lz+2T, 3F, 3Lo, 2A+3T, 2A+Eu+3S, 3F, 3Lz.

That's how Miyahara used to be able to keep up in BV a few years ago, despite not doing a single 3-3. That's also why many skaters attempt a 3-3 in the short but don't do it in the free - they don't have to because they're not punished score wise if they don't. What matters is more which jumps you repeat outside of the combinations, when you do the combinations (for example, all at the beginning or in the second half) and whether you gain all the levels on spins/steps.

I agree that layout strategy used to be a problem of Tuktamysheva‘s in the past but the ISU changed the rules for the coming season so her 3Lz+2A+SEQ combination won't even be a disadvantage anymore. It will now get full BV.

The main reason Shcherbakova's BV is so well constructed is that she can do a +3Lo combo and thus include three 3-3 in the first place. It's the optimal layout really. Tuktamysheva doesn't have that.

In conclusion, the only place where Tuktamysheva's lack of a consistent 3-3 will really hurt her, is the SP. In the FS, she can build her layout around it, especially with the new rules. What she can't build around is her lack of speed/skating skills and being 10 years the senior of the kids jumping multiple quads and 3A.

In my comment am referring to the controversial backlash a while back on social during the worlds event where former olympic figure skaters and fans were going back and forth. Olympic skater Polina Edmunds (you can hate or love her but yes she talks a lot of trash about Russians so I had to check and see if she lost her mind for that day when she tweeted this) revealed that to her the calls at worlds were not accurate and most of the women did not have clean 3-3s. I thought this was exaggerated and this was the only reason I watched the slowed down footage of worlds at all (originally I abandoned it with what happened) but had to confirm this exaggeration and then I agreed that many of the calls were generous and that it happened this way given the recent events that occurred. Even though other skaters agreed this caused controversy with some American skaters like Adam Rippon who basically said it was better than having Russia there doing...."you know what." I am not strictly going by the calls on the sheet, but also what I and many other skaters saw was off with the calls. You can disagree with me, and skaters who also saw this issue the calls. It is fine.

However if we are to ignore the very generous calls brought on by the recent events that was not existent for some of the same skaters before, and strictly go by the call sheet then yes everyone at worlds did well on jumps. So well in fact that Kaori could beat Trusova in a GP event in the FS with the exact same jump layout as USA GP even though she could not before.

#2: The example you gave is a case in which both skaters jump at least one 3-2 combo along with the 2A which is not the case I was comparing in Anna vs Liza. Anna only jumped all 3-3s for combos. Your example is not relevant to Anna vs Elizaveta in the free for this past Olympics spot. If a skater is only jumping 3-3s (not a single 3-2) they will be harder to beat (usually these skaters have quads or in Liza's case the 3 axel is enough to not Zayak and do three 3-3s). The only double jump Anna had was two 2As as she does not have Liza's 3A advantage.

#3 The +SEQ was only allowed at full base value this year yes, and I also brought it up in my previous post so I am not sure why this is re-told...but...uh...yes I agree it is now starting this season at full base.

#4 In reply to "it makes no difference if you jump 2A+3T or 2A+Eu+3S vs. 3Lz+3T and 3Lz+Eu+3S because the GOE factors differently"

GOE is a matter of the judges opinion I did not include this when factoring the jump BVs of Anna vs Liza in my prior examples (though I did mention Liza had greater GOE than Anna but that mainly due to her -5.50 punishment).

However Let's break your example down:

2A+3T= 7.5 (no bonus) vs 3Lz +3T= 10.10 (no bonus) that is not the same and a max average GOE of 5 from judges for both would yield:
2.10 max GOE total for 2A +3T = 9.60
2.95 max GOE total for 3Lz +3T = 13.05

2A + Eu + 3S = 8.10 (no bonus) vs 3Lz+Eu+3S= 10.20 (no bonus) that is not the same and a max average GOE of 5 from judges for both would yield:
2.15 max GOE total for 2A + Eu + 3S = 10.25
2.95 max GOE total for 3Lz + Eu + 3S = 13.65

The max GOE for 2A will never beat max GOE for 3Lz

Overall no they are not the same BV before GOE to begin with. Average GOE factors against BV of each jump in the combo. The highest BV in the combo averages the highest GOE. 3A > 3F and will result at higher GOE total average regardless of the total BV for 3F+3T being higher than 3A+2T. The 3A + 2T will yield higher 4 GOE total at max of 5 GOE average from the judges due to the high value of 3A. However look at the case below:

3A + 2T at maximum 5 GOE across the board averaged from all judges resulting in 4 GOE total mainly due to the 3A would yield at max 13 points
vs
3A + 3T at a lower 3 GOE mark averaged from all judges resulting in 2.40 total GOE at 14.60 points.

Despite lower GOE than the 3A + 2T the 3A + 3T is greater or equal to the BV for each jump type in the combo and still results in higher points. 3A is equal to 3A. 2T less than 3T so more BV leading to a higher total overall despite lower total GOE.


However 3A + 3T at 5 GOE mark average from judges yields the same 4 GOE and results in 16 points total with the 3T over a 13 point max with a 2T.
The 2T will never beat 3T at the max GOE calculation and 3T will always give an advantage over 2T if the first jump is equal. This is assuming the GOE is not negative and the skater is clean all the time.

So with GOE a skater with a 3-2 would have to gamble that the other skater fails their higher level jumps and goes negative....which is not a good plan and the judges are fickle with GOE.


In reply to your calculation of : 3Lz+2T, 3F, 3Lo, 3F+3T, 3Lz+Eu+3S, 2A, 2A (bonus not included) has the same BV of 43.70 as 3Lz+2T, 3F, 3Lo, 2A+3T, 2A+Eu+3S, 3F, 3Lz. No this is not the case.

I see what you are saying or are trying to say, however this is not how it works here because jumping two solo 3F's will result in a +REP with 70% reduction in base value. No skater will do this unless they severely messed up before and risk it anyways (like Maiia K did with her repeated solo triple jump and Alena K in Finlandia trophy as well and both were bad ideas). The skater will lose points in BV and this is not equal. They will have to swap that 3F with a 3S or 3T resulting in less points as well. This is why most skaters jump the hardest combo first (example 4Lz + 3T) and then do the solo jump (4Lz) to not risk a +REP like Adelia with 4lo +REP when she stepped out on the first 4lo, then fell on the second.


#5 Alena was the best example I can give of a skater with almost the same past 3A layout as Liza (3A+2T then 3A) who succeeds later on internationally while bombing her one and only 3A multiple times in international comp and is saved due to her two 3-3 combos giving padding. Liza without a clean 3A lost multiple times internationally as the other ladies can match her doubles if she makes errors.

Example is Alena's Disaster FS in Finlandia 49.91 in jumps vs. Loena 50.37 in jumps (both with GOE factored in because this is an important factor with jumps). Alena bombed her 3A with a 3A<, had +Rep on 3Lz with reduced BV, and messed up her first 3Lz. Many errors yet could still reach a very clean almost perfect 50.37 jump Loena. If she swapped her 3-3 for Loena's 3Lz+2T and 3F+2T+2Lo and kept the mistakes (3A fail, Bad 3Lz landing, and +rep on a 3Lz or any triple jump really) she would have completely lost in Finlandia had Loena not bombed the SP since a clean Loena can break 70+ in SP. Alena had almost about a 10 point lead with a clean short. Without GOE calculated a perfectly clean 3-2 Loena was at 43.78 (time bonus in second half included) while a terrible disaster skate 3-3 Aliona was at 47.90 (time bonus in second half included) with so many mistakes and errors. GOE punishment brought the score down (as it should here). Not her best skate at all. Not even near but the 3-3 cushion worked in her favor. That is the edge I am speaking of internationally when these skaters bomb an ultra-c. The two 3-3 combo cushion. Had Loena skated her SP clean, and Alena still bombed the FS but with a 3Lz + 2T, and 3F+2T+2Lo in tow there is a good chance Loena would win due to a larger gap than 3 points in the disaster FS despite Alena's lead in SP (this is only if Loena is clean at over 70+ since Alena was overall at 78 in her clean SP. If Loena still bombs the SP there was no way to win that spot at all).

Liza has no choice but to push two clean 3As to make up for the lack of 3-3s as the other international skaters can match her double combos. She has no cushion or padding for any error. So when she under rotates the 3A or if she bombs even one it really hurts her.

GOE is included in example below for deductions as full jump BV was not awarded:

In the case of Satoko vs Liza in 2018. She beat Liza in PCS by 5 pts not in tech. 76 (Liza) vs 71 (Satoko) in tech.
55.60 (Liza) in jumps only vs 49.30 (Satoko) in jumps. PCS is very important but Satoko's overall 71 tech (jumps and spins) did not beat Liza there. Satoko has lots of edge and under rotations issues so trying to go through her history entirely and analyzing her videos on jumps is very tough. Also Satoko did pretty much the same jump passes as Liza so they were toe to toe (3Lz+3T, 2A+3T, but Satoko's combo 3F+2T+2Lo did have higher BV > over Liza's 2A+2T+2Lo BV because her 3F is greater than Liza's 2A....however Liza still had 3A advantage ). 44.85 (Sat) vs 48.55 (Liza) without GOE for jumps and almost equal layouts.

Satoko before improving her main 3-3 (the 3Lz + 3T) in the FS averaged 37 - 38pts with the double Jumps (and sometimes even with 3Lz+3T due to < and <<) usually though which isn't very good as a disaster 3-3 skater with decent PCS at Finlandia could potential still outscore it without being clean. Satoko surpassed this cap before as yes she did push 2A+3T but she had to do so twice in the FS for 43 total with GOE. She often struggled to even get full points for them due to constant < and << and even on double jumps til this day it was always a struggle for her until she retired. Maybe an example with a skater credited full BV on most jumps would be better to analyze without calculating too many > and >> errors reducing base value without GOE calculation? Her PCS gave her a nice 5 point advantage though to beat Liza by 0.51 points overall. It was not her overall tech in jumps. PCs even with its guidelines are very subjective and Satoko has very nice PCS so she beat her there with PCS understandably.

In reply to: "But in all cases she lost by her own mistakes, not because of the loss of 2.59 in her base value."

In relation to this case if Liza had done a clean 3F+3T instead of 2A +3T that 0.51 point overall advantage of Satoko's PCS would not have overtaken her. She would have padding by at least 2 extra points from a 3-3 padding herself that loss to Satoko. But she still got on the podium which is fine.

#6 in reply to "The main reason Shcherbakova's BV is so well constructed is that she can do a +3Lo combo"

Yes and no. No because she could have done 3Lz+3T and not Zayak herself either and the results would not be much different.

Yes because Anna excels in various types of 3-3s while Tuk struggles with less difficult ones (yes all these jumps are hard work but even the lower level ones can be a struggle which could be due to her past ankle injury) which is why she would not excel in the free without perfection and a fall from Anna. Anna would need to fall on an additional jump or pop a jump which she did not do. One can't solely rely on the failure of other skaters to win. One of the international skaters could overtake her by less than even 1 point overall through PCS (like 2018 Satoko) if not perfect (which she wasn't with the 3< at RusNats not counting the bombed SP). If she still did a 3A, and had a similar Layout to Anna's she could have beat her in the FS but not overall due to bombing the SP. Unfortunately she struggles with 3-3's. She needs the 3-3s there at Nats to keep up with Anna and the other quadsters. Yes, that was my point I hope that is clear or clearer.

A clean 3A Liza in the SP historically scores in the 73's - 75's in Russia except once in her GP this year at 80 pts max. A clean Anna without 3A historically scored 80 - 82 points in Russia and scored 81 points there so overall Anna would still beat Liza by about 4 pts or so even with the bombed 4F in the FS due to overall FS advantage if Liza got her usual 73 - 80 for a 3A in her SP. Liza was NOT getting Kami's scores in tech or PCS for the 3A in the SP and never has so she would not have SP advantage over a clean Anna, but maybe this year she might. Who knows....

#7 Yes, I agree that she lost by mainly her own mistakes which was my main point when I showcased the falls/errors through that breakdown of Liza's history of self-sabotage through her own errors at RusNats in that post. It's not that no one is giving her a chance she is just shooting it down through her own mistakes. She gets the chance but melts down.

 

[uwoawuwoa]

She lost 15 points to Anna. Fall on a 3A in SP (~7 points loss), doubled combo in SP (~3 points loss), layback spin (0,3 points loss), ur on a 3A in FS (~4,5 points loss), messed up combo spin in FS (~2 points loss).

The difference between a solo 2A in the first half + a 3Lz-Eu-3S in the second half and a solo 3Lz in the first half + 2A-Eu-3S in the second half is only 0.26 points. In the first case, the GOE is calculated from the base values of 2A and 3Lz, and in the second case from the base values of 3Lz and 3S.
For example, we have two skaters. The first skater did a 2A in the first half and a 3Lz-Eu-3S in the second half, she received +3 GOE for both, her score for these elements is 17.83. The second one did a 3Lz in the first half and a 2A-Eu-3S in the second half, she also received +3 GOE for both, her score for these lements is 17.87. This is the reason why Trusova does 2A-3T.
3-3 in a free doesn't give an advantage, 2-3 is good as well. The main thing is to do 8 triples if a skater has a 3A (or 7 triples if not).

Alena's BV of FS jumps in 2019/20 season is 53.55, Liza's BV of FS jumps with 3Lz-3T is 53.49. BV of Liza's layout with 3Lz-2A is 50.9 which is of course is considerably less. But in all cases she lost by her own mistakes, not because of the loss of 2.59 in her base value.

#1 Yes agreed Liza lost and secured her position through the SP and cannot beat Anna in the FS clean or not.

#2 In the case of two skaters completing very similar jump passes as your example above yes. However in the case of the following:


First Skater 2A ( first half ) 3Lz +eu+3S and another 3F + 3T at 3 GOE = 29.03

Second Skater 3Lz ( first half ) 2A +eu+ 3S and another 2A + 3T at 3 GOE = 27.41

The skaters usually do more than just one combo in the second half which puts the skater with the least 3-3s at risk.


In this case above the second skater does not have the ability to do a 3-3 so they repeat the 2A which in this scenario puts them in a disadvantage. Worse if the first skater's only double jump was the 2A and they upgrade to jumping 3A only the second skater still doing the 2A in their combos despite having also having two 3A's and still using the 2A and even a 2T as the second jump will be in deep water:

To clarify:

Let's say two skaters have the same layout all level 4 with the following all at 3 GOE:

1st skater 3A+3T, 3Lz+Eu+3S, and 3F+3T vs 2nd Skater with 3A+2T, 2A+Eu+3S ,and 3lz +2ASEQ (but with full BV awarded in this scenario).

They both have another 3A, 3Lz, 3F, 3Lo as solo jumps in the same order with 3Lo being the only solo in the 2nd half (basically Liza's layout), and the exact same spins variations at Level 4s and Stsq4 with same GOE on Choreo sequence as well.

Overall Skater 1 will overtake skater 2 by over 6+ points in technical lead due to 3-3 advantage DESPITE the exact same layout and solo jumps. The use of double jumps in the long run is a disadvantage. Total of 93.79 vs 87.40

In the long run the 3-3s do matter. Skater 1 does not have a single double jump in their program giving them a clear tech advantage.


This example is assuming both are perfect. PCS will then decide the overall winner.


For your scenario to work the skaters would absolutely need to have the same exact type of jump passes which usually isn't the case with most ultra-c skaters.

Liza and Anna did not complete the same jump two passes for them to be switched and calculated this way.

3Lz then 2A + eu+ 3S = 17.87 but 2A then 3Lz + 3Lo= 17.94 if combined this way against each other.

Then further in that second half:
3Lz+2A+SEQ then 3Lo = 16.73 vs 3F+eu+3S then 3Lz= 20.96

#3 In all honesty I believe Trusova does 2A-3T because she cannot land a 3A let alone push a 3A-3T if she could land a 3A she'd jump at the attempt of the combo but sadly it does not come for her. She tried SOOOO hard for that 3A. Manifesting a 3A for Trusova this season. Hope she achieves this goal!

Also hopefully Liza will overcome herself at RusNats this year with clean skates in both SP and FS.

EDIT: I had to edit a typo

 

[uwoawuwoa]

I don't understand Liza's motivation in your theory. Do you think that she was so afraid of losing at international competitions that she deliberately failed the selection? But Sakamoto, for example, was only able to surpass Lisa's maximum score at the last World Championship (and I would say that this was a controversial score).

Also, from today's perspective, we understand that Liza at Olympics would have to fight Kaori Sakamoto and Wakaba Higuchi for third place. But if you mentally return to December 2021 and cross Kamila out of the team, it turns out that in this team left Shcherbakova, who does not look strong this season, and Trusova, who recently had an injury, and in general she is not very stable. Even at that time it was possible to predict that she would not succeed in 3A in the short program, and five quads is always a risk.

In fact, it was reminiscent of the 2021 World Championship, when Tuktamysheva received silver (plus, together with Anna, she received gold in the team tournament in Japan). Well, what's wrong with competing for at least bronze, and with luck, for silver?

In the theory I gave many people made it seem like Liza was the underdog who was never given a fair shot to go to the olympics so I felt for her, but if you review her body of work at nationals instead she did have a fair shot just like everybody else. It is Liza who loses her own chances with her own errors year after year in the olympic season and even non-olympic seasons at RUSNATS. I do not know why she is this way. Maybe nerves she cannot overcome? Maybe she wants it too much which causes panic and errors in her performance? I do not know truly why this keeps happening to her. It is a pattern that is strange and no one did it to her but herself most of the times bombing the performances. She must overcome herself.

Yes, I agree with your second analysis. Everything was originally up in the air at first with the injuries of Anna and later of Trusova yet everything worked out in the end.

There's nothing wrong with bronze or silver at all, but Liza mainly misses the podiums at Rusnats and does better internationally. Mainly it is her own doing through errors. In 2021 yes Liza lost to Kaori in WTT despite her three 3A's total and lead in the SP which could have easily happened again at Olys with Liza off podium but Liza potentially losing to Kaori at the Olys would have been better to handle than what actually occurred.

 

[Jontor]

I absolutely agree with you

Except for Liza's lack of being on the main olympic team and not catching a break...there is a pattern of her bombing at Nationals which keeps her there.

It's not someone else keeping her down or that she can't truly catch a break. It is literally herself who is bombing for some type of reason SPECIFICALLY when it counts at RusNationals.

I used to feel very sad that she never got a chance UNTIL I reviewed ALL of her RUSnats programs and realized this was not the case.

Here is a breakdown of her own self sabotage at RusNats below (even if she was doing great in GPs, and worlds for some reason she always breaks down at Russian Nationals. It is a pattern over and over and over):

In 2011 - 2012 Season at Rusnats she was 6th place (bombed the short with 3Lz fall with a low level 2 spin and then bombs the free with a 3F and 3S fall)

In 2013 - 2014 Olympic Season Rusnats she was 10th place (She bombed the short. Fell on the 3Lz + 3T jump combo with under rotations. Then in the free bombed again with a 3F fall and messed up her combo with a very low level 2S +2T + 1Lo combo jump for 3 points then she messed up her spin)

In 2015-2016 Season at Rusnats she was 8th place (Attempted her 3A Yes! But severely bombed with a 3A fall in the short and a very bad combo. It was a popped 2T going into an under rotated struggled 3T for a 2T+3T<< combo which was bad to see her struggle here, and then she severely bombed the free with a poor 3A landing, a popped 3F turning to 1F, under rotations on her 3T + 3T, messed up her 3S +2A SEQ jump with a step out on her 3S).

In 2016 - 2017 Season at Rusnats she was 8th place (Kept the 3T+3T placing her lower than girls doing 3F, 3Lz, and 3Lo (Alina) as their second combo in their 3-3s at the time and had rough landings on her 3Lz and 2A. Bombed the free when she fell on 3F<, and 3Lz<<. She did do a 3T+3T but again it is a lower level 3-3 combo compared to those who outscored her)

In 2017 - 2018 Olympic Season at Rusnats she was 7th place (her combo was still a low level 3T+3T in her short with level 3 spins but it was a clean short. Her free was unfortunately weak as her best jumps were a series of only 3-2-2 (which had errors) and 3-2 combos and absolutely no 3-3s at all which was/is on current American Mariah Bell level with the +SEQ 2A for reduced based value and the top three Russian ladies of that event were not doing this).

In 2019 - 2020 Season at Rusnats she was 4th place (She finally leveled up---I was so proud---and ditched the 3T+3T for a 3F+3T and restored her 3A finally!!!! But it was too late Anna, Aliona, and Sasha already arrived with triple axels and quads. Worse! Liza severely bombed the free after a pretty good short and STILL did not have the staple two 3-3 combos that Anna, Aliona, Sasha and most of the top Russian ladies have. Fell on 4T<, stepped out on 3A<, touched the ice to keep from falling on 3F<, and the final nail in the coffin was the two footed landing on 3lo. I think she has an issue with 3-3 combos generally as it is not consistent with her, but she never truly rectified it maybe due to her past ankle injury. So it forever remains her weakness if she gets a quad she may jump a 4T+2T but not 4T + 3T or +eu 3S or +eu 3F as a second combo which sadly will always place someone with a 4-3 or 3-3 combo above her even with a huge PCS boost---like at this years Nationals against juniors).

In 2020 - 2021 Season at Rusnats she was 7th place ( she bombed the free with a +Rep on her 3Aq fall which was meant to be a 3A+2T combo. Kept doing the +SEQ 2A jump which again was not good at the time since it reduced the base value up until now where the ISU will now give full points this season in 2022/20223 I believe, and her best high value combo was only 2-3-2 at 9 points with the bonus so the improvement was minuscule in terms of gaining clean 3-3 combos to secure any podium at Nationals even if clean. So she bombed the free skate again...and jumped a solo 2Lo instead of 3Lo)

Finally In 2021 - 2022 Olympic Season at Rusnats she was 7th place (she bombed the short with a fall on her 3A and did a 3-2 combo instead of 3-3 like everyone else which was 100% crucial for this crop of top skaters. That secured her 7th place position because every single girl above her executed their 3-3 combos in the short. Then in her FS she messed up with a 3A < resulting in lost points and she did not do a single 3-3 combo at all which is crucial for the olympics as most of the Korean/Japanese non-Russian podium ladies have at least/most one 3-3 and Wakaba + Young You had 3A as well so it was risky for Liza to mess up and not even have a single 3-3 to go to the Olys. while everyone else even the juniors had 3-3 combos. It still remains a big weakness and can push most elite Russian skaters with ultra-c above her. International skaters still do many 3-2s so Liza never had to really worry THAT much internationally as long as she landed a clean 3A (also Daria and Aliona easily won internationally without utlra-c due to this international weakness among female skaters...this is the lack of two good 3-3 combos to maximize points when no ultra-c is present) but in terms of Russian skaters it is an ignored issue Liza must overcome this season if she wants to win a higher placement in RusNats and stop this yearly bombing at RusNats and I hope she does). Also the fact that she was the only senior without a quad may have hurt her, but Anna fell on her one and only quad that day and that was Liza's only opportunity that season. With Anna's fall if Liza had the ability to pull three triple-triple combos like Anna she could have potentially secured a spot. She had a massive 14 point GOE lead compared to Anna even with the lower tech program, but it could not save Liza as 3-3 combos were/still is her ultimate weakness while 3-3 combos are Anna's (and all the Eteri skaters really) ultimate true advantage whether or not Anna falls on a single quad which is how she successfully secured her 3rd spot for the Olys over Liza despite a quad fall to give her an edge over Liza's RusNats program this olympic season.

That being said, Liza unfortunately has this pattern of bombing specifically at Russian nationals even if she was doing well in events prior (In the GP she was on fire). This season she did well, but still ended up bombing the short at Nationals while most above her secured a leading position with a short program advantage over Liza.

The only times she performed somewhat well at Russian Nationals was in 2012 - 2013 season where she placed 1st against weaker skaters who messed up just as badly despite messing up herself in the free with a popped 1F jump and step-out on the 3S. She still won. She also had a 3Lz +3T combo there and her free program was not clean but she won against a cleaner Elena Radionova through PCS. Also in the 2014 - 2015 season of Rusnats she won 2nd beating junior Evgenia M from Eteri's camp in PCS but her programs there were cleaner than in 2012-2013 and she was on absolute fire that year winning 1st in almost all her competitions. Her PCS ever since then could not mask the real issue when she had errors as the gap in tech between her and the other quadsters were more than 7 points. Out of 10 RusNats she only succeeded in 2 which was ultimately her own doing in terms of inconsistency, and lower level jumps that resembles the current elite American female skater state of 3-2 combos and +SEQ at the 2022 Olys and 2022 worlds.

Hopefully this season she will crush it at Nationals or power through it like Trusova did in the free at the Olys with not a single fall, but looking at her patterns of bombing at Nationals I will keep my personal expectations realistic. I don't know if its nerves...I am not sure, but she has a bad yearly track records at RusNats. At least this year that +SEQ won't hurt her total base value.

It just goes to show how crucial and important Nationals is. Liza always had the potential but never lived up to it at Nationals.

Interestingly, you can compare Liza with Maria Butyrskaya who was is the same situation all her career. Maria was older than the others and had to fight hard at nationals all the time. But unlike Liza, Maria managed to fight through Nationals and has an unbeaten record of 11 consecutive National medals. Sure, the competition might not have been as strong back then, but it was tough enough and Maria's main rival Irina Slutskaya missed the podium in a couple of Nationals, which meant that she also missed being selected to the National Team in '99.

 

[AlexBreeze]

First Skater 2A ( first half ) 3Lz +eu+3S and another 3F + 3T at 3 GOE = 29.03

Second Skater 3Lz ( first half ) 2A +eu+ 3S and another 2A + 3T at 3 GOE = 27.41

The skaters usually do more than just one combo in the second half which puts the skater with the least 3-3s at risk.

In this case, the second skater loses a lot in base value as she won't be able to repeat 3Lo, 3F, or 3Lz because two combos were done with a 2A. A program should have one 3-3, but two 3-3s are not necessary and three 3-3s won't work if a skater doesn't have a quad. (Under the old rules)

1st skater 3A+3T, 3Lz+Eu+3S, and 3F+3T vs 2nd Skater with 3A+2T, 2A+Eu+3S ,and 3lz +2ASEQ (but with full BV awarded in this scenario).

They both have another 3A, 3Lz, 3F, 3Lo as solo jumps in the same order with 3Lo being the only solo in the 2nd half (basically Liza's layout), and the exact same spins variations at Level 4s and Stsq4 with same GOE on Choreo sequence as well.

In your example, the first skater repeats four triple jumps, this layout is impossible.

In the long run the 3-3s do matter. Skater 1 does not have a single double jump in their program giving them a clear tech advantage.

The only way to avoid double jumps is to have both a quad and a 3A.

 

[uwoawuwoa]

In this case, the second skater loses a lot in base value as she won't be able to repeat 3Lo, 3F, or 3Lz because two combos were done with a 2A. A program should have one 3-3, but two 3-3s are not necessary and three 3-3s won't work if a skater doesn't have a quad. (Under the old rules)

Yes, two 3-3s are not a requirement but most of the top Russian Ladies jump two 3-3s while implementing an ultra-c with Liza as the main exception. However in her case it works for her, because jumping a clean 2-3 is better than her falling on a 3-3 you know you can't land clean. But it still does not remedy the situation.

In your example, the first skater repeats four triple jumps, this layout is impossible.

Yes, following the rules this would not be attempted for skater 1 since they could only jump the same jump type twice for both triples (and quads). In my previous example I wanted Skater 1 to mimic Liza's layout as much as possible without too many changes so I had to Zayak Skater 1. However, let's test the quad and 3A scenario for both skaters which in this example will better follow the rules with no Zayaking here for skater 1 and still being as equal as possible with skater 2. Implementing both:

"1st skater 3A+3T, 3Lz+Eu+3S, and 3F+3T vs 2nd Skater with 3A+2T, 2A+Eu+3S ,and 3lz +2A SEQ (but with full BV awarded in this scenario).

They both have another 3A, 4Lz, 4F, 4Lo as solo jumps in the same order with 4Lo being the only solo in the 2nd half (so still similar to Liza's layout somewhat but with the quad upgrade and this example stays better within the rules for both skaters this time so skater 1 will avoid Zayak), and the exact same spins variations at Level 4s and Stsq4 with same GOE on Choreo sequence as well. So these skaters are equals in almost everything except their combos yet again.

In this scenario with skater 1 is staying within the rules to only repeat 3A, and 3T while still closely mimicking skater 2 in jump passes. Both skaters have very similar jump passes except with the combos as skater 2 is capped as they are still relying on 2A in their combo specifically due to being unable to do an actual 3-3:
Results: Skater 1 at 114 in tech and Skater 2 at 108 in tech. Skater's 2 inability to push a 3-3 in this case is being exploited by Skater 1 despite having mainly the same ultra-c difficulty in terms of jump passes and doing the exact same spin times.

Let's say skater 1 also does a 2A+Eu+3S instead of the 3Lz+Eu+3S that still gives them advantage by 3+ points lead over skater 2 with only 3-2s.

 

[uwoawuwoa]

It just goes to show how crucial and important Nationals is. Liza always had the potential but never lived up to it at Nationals.

Interestingly, you can compare Liza with Maria Butyrskaya who was is the same situation all her career. Maria was older than the others and had to fight hard at nationals all the time. But unlike Liza, Maria managed to fight through Nationals and has an unbeaten record of 11 consecutive National medals. Sure, the competition might not have been as strong back then, but it was tough enough and Maria's main rival Irina Slutskaya missed the podium in a couple of Nationals, which meant that she also missed being selected to the National Team in '99.

Agreed Nationals is one of the most important events

Thank you for the comparison. I will have to take a look Maria Butyrskaya.

 

[halulupu]

Who is russian women GOAT? Is it Zagitova because she won everything or Trusuova for her 5quad achievment or still Slutskaja? On paper probably Zagitova, but I found her always quite uninspiring..

 

[Idiote]

Who is russian women GOAT? Is it Zagitova because she won everything or Trusuova for her 5quad achievment or still Slutskaja? On paper probably Zagitova, but I found her always quite uninspiring..

Wow, that's a big question. I guess you will never get an universal answer for this one, because it all depends on what criterias you base your definition of a GOAT upon, and there have already been a few threads on this issue in the forum and nobody ever managed to agree x')

For some it will be about the length of the career and/or the total medal counts, and/or the "difficulty" of those medals (I'm referring to the argument I've seen around here that Anna's three-peat at RusNats is more "valuable" than the medals and titles of someone like Slutskaya who skated in a less cut-throat field as today) and/or the grand slam, and/or the historical records/overall impact on the sport... All of these are valid points imo, but I'm not familiar enough with the history of Russian women skaters to see if there is yet one person who ticks every single box. I don't really think there is anyone who does, yet, but in the meantime I don't see why there has to be only one GOAT, it's like trying to determine the Best Ever Movie Of All Ever Time, that's just impossible.

Personally, if I had to choose a single one GOAT, I think I'd go with Sasha ; because much like Midori Ito, she has truly pushed the boundaries of the sport with an amazing track of historic records - she did not create the quad revolution single-handedly of course, but she basically made it her mission to live up to being the anointed Quad Queen. She may never have all the gold medals that other great Russian skaters have gathered, but she made history quite a few times before even turning 18, paved and lead the way to a new era in women's skating, and I think she will always be a legend of the sport.

But again, that's my opinion, and I completely agree with anyone who'd give the GOAT title to Alina for the grand slam, Irina S. for the medal count and lengthy career, Anna for her iron-cast character and amazing comeback story, or any other past retired great or exciting upcoming junior I'm excited to know who everyone thinks about, and I hope I'll discover skaters I haven't heard about yet in the process !

Spoiler

Spoiler because it's a bit personal, but I just have to admit that my "emotional" GOAT will always be Yulia Lipnitskaya ; she's the one who captured me and ignited my passion for the sport, kinda saving my life doing so because I was in a very dark place at the time. I'll always be grateful to her for this, and I firmly believe that it's really something that a 15-year-old girl managed to touch so many souls just with her skating, that even years after Sochi there is still so much magic in the YouTube videos of this program. I know it's completely subjective, but she really is the artistic GOAT for me.

 

[Amei]

Who is russian women GOAT? Is it Zagitova because she won everything or Trusuova for her 5quad achievment or still Slutskaja? On paper probably Zagitova, but I found her always quite uninspiring..

I think trying to declare a "GOAT" is extremely difficult: Irina Slutskaya competed in a completely different era. Zagitova on paper considering she won all major international titles she might have an argument in the modern era but less than a year after she won her last international title she was competitively irrelevant in Russia with Kostornaia, Trusova and Shcherbakova becoming senior where getting international assignments was going to be relying on 1 of those 3 having meltdown skates...Can you really be the "GOAT" when that becomes the case so quickly? Trusova sure she has some supreme athletic ability but she's had 1 competition where she managed to not splatfest attempting her 5 quads and she completely ignores the artistic performance aspect when attempting the 5 quad program (which performance is a big aspect of figure skating) and should she really be the GOAT when she has 0 major titles as a senior skater? Shcherbakova seems to have an argument given that she managed to win 3 consecutive senior national titles in the toughest domestic field and for her mental strength in how she handles big competitions, but the argument against her is that she's largely regarded as being clean or having less mistakes and capitalizing on the screw-ups of other "stronger" skaters, for instance: Worlds 2021, Trusova doesn't screw up her combination in the SP or maybe has less quad errors she might've been World champ.

 

[halulupu]

I think trying to declare a "GOAT" is extremely difficult: Irina Slutskaya competed in a completely different era. Zagitova on paper considering she won all major international titles she might have an argument in the modern era but less than a year after she won her last international title she was competitively irrelevant in Russia with Kostornaia, Trusova and Shcherbakova becoming senior where getting international assignments was going to be relying on 1 of those 3 having meltdown skates...Can you really be the "GOAT" when that becomes the case so quickly? Trusova sure she has some supreme athletic ability but she's had 1 competition where she managed to not splatfest attempting her 5 quads and she completely ignores the artistic performance aspect when attempting the 5 quad program (which performance is a big aspect of figure skating) and should she really be the GOAT when she has 0 major titles as a senior skater? Shcherbakova seems to have an argument given that she managed to win 3 consecutive senior national titles in the toughest domestic field and for her mental strength in how she handles big competitions, but the argument against her is that she's largely regarded as being clean or having less mistakes and capitalizing on the screw-ups of other "stronger" skaters, for instance: Worlds 2021, Trusova doesn't screw up her combination in the SP or maybe has less quad errors she might've been World champ.

Indeed Anna three consecutive national titel should count a lot. However, even after winning the Olympics the media is not really picking up on her, its all about valieva and trusuva..

 

[halulupu]

Wow, that's a big question. I guess you will never get an universal answer for this one, because it all depends on what criterias you base your definition of a GOAT upon, and there have already been a few threads on this issue in the forum and nobody ever managed to agree x')

For some it will be about the length of the career and/or the total medal counts, and/or the "difficulty" of those medals (I'm referring to the argument I've seen around here that Anna's three-peat at RusNats is more "valuable" than the medals and titles of someone like Slutskaya who skated in a less cut-throat field as today) and/or the grand slam, and/or the historical records/overall impact on the sport... All of these are valid points imo, but I'm not familiar enough with the history of Russian women skaters to see if there is yet one person who ticks every single box. I don't really think there is anyone who does, yet, but in the meantime I don't see why there has to be only one GOAT, it's like trying to determine the Best Ever Movie Of All Ever Time, that's just impossible.

Personally, if I had to choose a single one GOAT, I think I'd go with Sasha ; because much like Midori Ito, she has truly pushed the boundaries of the sport with an amazing track of historic records - she did not create the quad revolution single-handedly of course, but she basically made it her mission to live up to being the anointed Quad Queen. She may never have all the gold medals that other great Russian skaters have gathered, but she made history quite a few times before even turning 18, paved and lead the way to a new era in women's skating, and I think she will always be a legend of the sport.

But again, that's my opinion, and I completely agree with anyone who'd give the GOAT title to Alina for the grand slam, Irina S. for the medal count and lengthy career, Anna for her iron-cast character and amazing comeback story, or any other past retired great or exciting upcoming junior I'm excited to know who everyone thinks about, and I hope I'll discover skaters I haven't heard about yet in the process !

Spoiler

Spoiler because it's a bit personal, but I just have to admit that my "emotional" GOAT will always be Yulia Lipnitskaya ; she's the one who captured me and ignited my passion for the sport, kinda saving my life doing so because I was in a very dark place at the time. I'll always be grateful to her for this, and I firmly believe that it's really something that a 15-year-old girl managed to touch so many souls just with her skating, that even years after Sochi there is still so much magic in the YouTube videos of this program. I know it's completely subjective, but she really is the artistic GOAT for me.

Great thoughts! I know there will never be a universal answer, but interesting opinions;-)

 

[Arbitrary]

IMHO, the Russian GOAT among ladies is Helena Vodorezova. Her achievements/health ratio is likely the highest.

 

[halulupu]

IMHO, the Russian GOAT among ladies is Helena Vodorezova. Her achievements/health ratio is likely the highest.

We are not allowed to talk about coaches if you consider her olymic gold medal as coach too, she might be a good choice indeed

 

[Lurker11]

Kamila is the best it will be decades before someone achieves what she did over the past 12 months.

If she some how can never compete again, she will be the best for decades to come.

 

[Amei]

Indeed Anna three consecutive national titel should count a lot. However, even after winning the Olympics the media is not really picking up on her, its all about valieva and trusuva..

Media attention isn't exactly an indicator of whether or not someone is a/the GOAT. The media was certainly going to follow the 2 skaters having emotional meltdowns rather than the winner that was sitting quietly. They've all 3 been in the press a decent amount of times for various activities in the offseason.

 

[Amei]

IMHO, the Russian GOAT among ladies is Helena Vodorezova. Her achievements/health ratio is likely the highest.

Please someone tell me they had to Google this as well to find out Helena Vodorezova is Elena Buyanova