Junior Worlds web site is up

[PolymerBob]

Not much info as of yet, but the site is up. Some pictures flash in the gallery banner. You can see Caroline who will be in the event. You can also see Stephen Carriere, who won last year, but won't be in it this year.

http://www.juniorworlds2008.com

 

[perlla]

Entries for Junior Worlds are now in ISU site
http://www.isufs.org/events/fsevent00010324.htm

 

[Kypma]

I'm curious to see how Caroline will do -- defending Champion, and not having skated junior program this year...

Kypma

 

[chuckm]

I'm wondering if Mirai and Rachael will beat Caroline, just as they did at US Nationals.

 

[PolymerBob]

I'm wondering if Mirai and Rachael will beat Caroline, just as they did at US Nationals.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PMQV7cymBU

Now the long answer: Both girls have a chance, as well a few foreigners, if Caroline falters severely. If not, we will have a repeat champion.

 

[chuckm]

The US judges didn't ding Caroline for her flutz or URs in her FS. I'm not so sure the ISU judges will be as kind. And there's one less spin in a Junior FS, so that will cut down on her +GOE.

Meanwhile, Rachael and Mirai were well-treated in the JGP this year.

In any case, I think the US girls have an excellent chance to sweep the podium as they did last year.

 

[nadster]

Some Canadian based comments:

Too bad Lenko/Islam still won't be well for JW. That greatly reduces our chances for 3 JW spots next year although Crone/Poirier should keep our 16 JGP slots.

The ladies substitute selection is very interesting. Although Samson is the best pick for JW the substitutes don't make any sense. Both Szmiett and Tisluk got lower scores at Canadians than our junior ladies winner Kelsey McNeil. And Szmiett and Tisluk had the benefit of the points of an extra spin. Also junior scores as less inflated than the senior ones.

Szmiett does not have a triple loop ( she did not even try any loop jump in the FS at nationals). Tisluk ( even though she can land the big jumps including the loop ) has a history of just crashing and burning with multiple falls like she did in the LP at nationals this year. McNeil, while not having the big jumps is far more consistent than Szmiett and Tisluk and she can at least rotate the loop sometimes. It would have been better to go with youth and consistency ( McNeil is younger than Tisluk and Szmiett ) than someone who can land a triple lutz super inconsistently.

 

[kittyjake5]

I have not been paying to much attention to the junior ladies. I understand that Rachel, Mirai and Caroline will represent the USA even though they all competed as Seniors. So we won't have the Jr.'s National Champ at Jr. Worlds, scratches head.

 

[childfreegirl]

I have not been paying to much attention to the junior ladies. I understand that Rachel, Mirai and Caroline will represent the USA even though they all competed as Seniors. So we won't have the Jr.'s National Champ at Jr. Worlds, scratches head.

IIRC, the US junior champs don't usually go to Junior Worlds. It's usually any seniors that are age eligible.

 

[feraina]

The US judges didn't ding Caroline for her flutz or URs in her FS. I'm not so sure the ISU judges will be as kind. And there's one less spin in a Junior FS, so that will cut down on her +GOE.
Meanwhile, Rachael and Mirai were well-treated in the JGP this year.

Actually, Caroline did get 2 flutz dings in the FS, and it's true that she got no UR in the FS, but then she had no UR's in the GPF LP either except for the last 3Lz she fell on. The National's LP was certainly the best LP she skated all year, so it makes sense there were no downgrades. Also, junior int'l judges are more lenient than senior ones in general, so if she got by the senior judges (except for the draconian ones at SA) then I think she will be okay at JW with the same quality of jumps.

It is actually Rachael and Mirai who got multiple edge (Rachael) and downgrade (Mirai) deductions on the JGP, and who were treated very kindly at National's. Also, Rachael & Mirai's PCS went way up compared to JGP's, and Caroline's was on par with her GPF PCS. Obviously senior PCS tend to be higher than junior PCS, but last year Caroline got higher PCS than Mirai, and this year Mirai got way better PCS than Rachael on the JGP (a difference that was minimized at National's). So it would be very interesting to see how they all get scored together by the JW judges.

I think with totally clean SP's including ratified 3-3's, Mirai & Caroline will be really close, and Rachael would be about 3-5 points behind, mainly due to lower levels/GOEs on spins/spirals/footwork, as well as lower PCS. Also, Rachael never had her 3-3 ratified in the SP by international judges, so it will be interesting to see if she gets it at JW. Mirai, of course, never tried 3-3's before National's, and was downgraded in the LP.

As for the LP, if everyone skates totally clean, I feel like Mirai should be slightly ahead of Caroline though quite close, and Rachael should be further behind -- again because of higher levels/GOEs Mirai/Caroline get on the spins and spirals, and also higher PCS. But on the other hand, Rachael & Caroline have had a good track record of having their 3-3's ratified in the LP, whereas Mirai doesn't. On the other hand Rachael get occasional edge deductions, Caroline get frequent ones, so that evens things out a little.

I think a lot just depends on how well each girl skates on the day of the competition, as well as how strict/lenient/consistent the tech panel is.

 

[kittyjake5]

IIRC, the US junior champs don't usually go to Junior Worlds. It's usually any seniors that are age eligible.

You learn something new every day. Thanks.

 

[chuckm]

It is actually Rachael and Mirai who got multiple edge (Rachael) and downgrade (Mirai) deductions on the JGP, and who were treated very kindly at National's. Also, Rachael & Mirai's PCS went way up compared to JGP's, and Caroline's was on par with her GPF PCS. Obviously senior PCS tend to be higher than junior PCS, but last year Caroline got higher PCS than Mirai, and this year Mirai got way better PCS than Rachael on the JGP (a difference that was minimized at National's). So it would be very interesting to see how they all get scored together by the JW judges.

Rachael got ONE flutz deduction out of 9 lutzes performed in her 3 JGP appearances. So she did not get 'multiple edge deductions'.

In Austria, she got neither flutz nor downgrade deductions and got credit for the 3Z+3T in the FS. She got unexpectedly hammered at the German JGP in the FS, where she received multiple downgrades--on the loop in the SP, and her 3/3, both lutzes and one flip.

At the JGPF, she got a flutz deduction in the SP, and a ur on the second jump of her 3Z+3T (she didn't try a 3/3 in the SP at her two JGP events). But in the FS, she had no ur and no < and received full credit for her 3Z+3T.

Rachael beat Mirai in the FS at the JGP, just as she beat her at Nationals. If Rachael skates cleanly, Mirai cannot afford a single mistake---and neither can Caroline.

 

[demarinis5]

If Mirai skates her SP the way she did at Nationals do you all think she will get comparable scores from the international judges? imo If she does she will be hard to beat. We already witnessed that at Nationals.

 

[chuckm]

The girls won't get scores anywhere near what they got at Nationals.

125.82 69.38 56.44 7.00 6.82 7.18 7.14 7.14 Flatt, Nats
107.55 62.18 45.37 5.81 5.38 5.72 5.66 5.78 Flatt, JGPF


120.18 63.35 57.83 7.29 7.00 7.18 7.29 7.39 Nagasu, Nats
102.74 52.76 49.98 6.34 6.06 6.19 6.31 6.34 Nagasi, JGPF


119.67 65.84 53.83 6.54 6.43 7.04 6.82 6.82 Zhang, Nats
114.66 62.22 53.44 6.80 6.40 6.85 6.80 6.55 Zhang, GPF

Zhang's score is more realistic than Nagasu's or Flatt's.

Note that Flatt beat Nagasu in the FS at the JGPF and at Nationals.

 

[PolymerBob]

The girls won't get scores anywhere near what they got at Nationals.

125.82 69.38 56.44 7.00 6.82 7.18 7.14 7.14 Flatt, Nats
107.55 62.18 45.37 5.81 5.38 5.72 5.66 5.78 Flatt, JGPF


120.18 63.35 57.83 7.29 7.00 7.18 7.29 7.39 Nagasu, Nats
102.74 52.76 49.98 6.34 6.06 6.19 6.31 6.34 Nagasi, JGPF


119.67 65.84 53.83 6.54 6.43 7.04 6.82 6.82 Zhang, Nats
114.66 62.22 53.44 6.80 6.40 6.85 6.80 6.55 Zhang, GPF

Zhang's score is more realistic than Nagasu's or Flatt's.

Note that Flatt beat Nagasu in the FS at the JGPF and at Nationals.

I was wondering about that. I like all 3 of them, but I thought Caroline got a raw deal at nationals. There was a theory that because she was not in the last group, she got lower scores than if she was. Regardless, I doubt these antics will happen in Sofia.

 

[demarinis5]

Thanks for the breakdown. Quite a difference in the scores.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

IIRC, the US junior champs don't usually go to Junior Worlds. It's usually any seniors that are age eligible.

I think the operative word 'usually' if it applies every year, would be for Ladies only. I think the other disciplines have both senior and junior champs.

Joe

 

[chuckm]

You also have to remember that there is one less spin in a Junior program, so all of the ladies could expect a score 3-4 points lower than they got at Nationals, just on that basis.

I believe Caroline got a lower score not because she wasn't in the last group, but because she was slower than the top 3, and her ice coverage wasn't as good. She also lost 2.72 points due to edge calls on her two flutzes. Mirai got just one, and it was only -1.00 points vs. -1.29 and -1.43 for Caroline.

 

[krenseby]

You also have to remember that there is one less spin in a Junior program, so all of the ladies could expect a score 3-4 points lower than they got at Nationals, just on that basis.

I believe Caroline got a lower score not because she wasn't in the last group, but because she was slower than the top 3, and her ice coverage wasn't as good. She also lost 2.72 points due to edge calls on her two flutzes. Mirai got just one, and it was only -1.00 points vs. -1.29 and -1.43 for Caroline.

Speed is the easiest and yet the hardest thing to fix. It does not require learning anything new, it just calls for more relaxation and greater confidence. Can you practice those? Not sure!