The Quad question

[Ximena]

Joesitz made a question in the Men FS thread about wether is a quad necesary to win Worlds and I've been thinking about it (and yes, I'm pro-quad) but I think it is and this is why.

Jeff Buttle did a perfect SP and a perfect FS. So his scores are the best an skater can achieve without a quad right? I

In the SP (jump-wise) he did a 3a, 3f, 3z, 3t so the only way jump wise that can get any extra points is by changing the 3t for a loop and even then it wouldn't be too much, so base value the best an skater can do without a quad (I'm using Jeff as an example because he gets I think the best spin and footwork levels) is 38 points.

In the FS, he maxed out the jumps with two 3ax and two 3z, so his base value was 74.93 (so let's say 75)

He got 16 points in GOE and we all pretty much have agreed he didn't make a single mistake so like I said in the beggining, Jeff SP and FS marks are probablyt he best marks an skater can make without a quad and he got 245, best case scenario he gets 250.

Just by looking at the ISU stadistics, you can see that at least Daisuke had beat that score before (sorry I mentioned Lambiel and Joubert because I thought they had as well)

But looking at the quad in particular
As it was mentioned in the Men FS thread, while Jeff did everything he could and more, he got lucky that the rest fell apart.

A guy with a quad in the SP, has a base mark doing the best program that can be done a 3.5 advantage over the non-quads one (if such quad is a 4t, if it is a quad sal it's 4 points)

A guy with one quad in the FS, and two axels (again using Jeff program in reference) does not have to do a 2ax so that means that instead of getting a 2.5 for a 2ax (that the non-quad guys do in order to make 8 jumping passes) he gets 9 points for a quad, giving him a 6.5 advantage in TES.

A guye with two quads in the FS and two axels, can leave out the next easy jump (easy as marked as CoP) which is a 3t and get instead of 4 points (3t), 9 points (4t) giving him an extra 5 points to the 6.5 before, giving him a 11.5 points advantage in TES.

So the way I see it, a non quad guy can win Worlds as long as the quad guys makes mistakes.

Yes there is also the PCS discussion but the way we just saw Worlds, in the SP all of them got pretty much the same and in the FS the difference was a little bigger but as much as to make up for either 6.5 or 11.5 points.

(then again this just my opinion, but while I'm a pro-quad person, I think I tried my best in make it neutral)

 

[indicatoto101]

I think that it's almost a known fact that a quad program will beat a quadless program with everything else being the same (i.e., two triple axels, combinations are maxed, levels of spins and footwork are the same). But out of the men who have quads at the moment, the only skater who's really consistent with it is Joubert, who, IMO, has the best chances of winning competitions next year if others don't gain consistency.

 

[Ximena]

I would say that Daisuke and Stephane are consistent with their quads. And I think Tomas is getting there.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

quote from Ximena

So the way I see it, a non quad guy can win Worlds as long as the quad guys makes mistakes

But Joubert did not make any mistake!!! Buttle won it because his routine was better. It all adds up with a quad giving a score its highest points but the QuadMan has to do other things besides. Joubert has improved in many ways due to Kurt and the entire audience was tense as much a Joubert was.

I haven't seen the protocols but I am sure this was a close result.

Joe

 

[Mafke]

I haven't seen the protocols but I am sure this was a close result.

Nope, basically Buttle ran away with it.

I think quads are counteractive to skating a good program and almost every good program I've seen with one or more would have been better without it.

Maybe there can be a separate jump-only competition like the extreme-sports, no music, each skater has two minutes on the ice to hit the biggest highest scoring jumps they can. Maybe that would satisfy the jump queens who only care about quads and 3-3's and allow skaters to do better programs.

 

[Ximena]

quote from Ximena

So the way I see it, a non quad guy can win Worlds as long as the quad guys makes mistakes

But Joubert did not make any mistake!!! Buttle won it because his routine was better. It all adds up with a quad giving a score its highest points but the QuadMan has to do other things besides. Joubert has improved in many ways due to Kurt and the entire audience was tense as much a Joubert was.

I haven't seen the protocols but I am sure this was a close result.

Joe

No, Joubert lost a bunch of points in his last combo that ended up being a 2ax-1t, from the protocols it seemed he wanted to do a 3ax-3t (which I think was insane at the very end of his program), also he got 2 edge calls that made him lost points on his 3f-3t combo and his 3f alone. Also he only did two combo instead of three.

A 3ax-3t would have given him 12.65 instead he got 4.29 so he lost there 8.35 The edge call made him lost half a point so he would at least got 0.5 more and the other edge call cost him 1 point. And a third combo anywhere would have get at least 3 points

So he would have gotten in a celan program 12 more points without adding any GOE to those and he would have won the FS.

 

[Bennett]

At this competition, I was amazed to see how risky a quad could be. Johnny received so little on his quad attempt because of the downgrade and double foot. Tomas and Takahashi messed up with their performances after a failed quad. Many other guys also failed.

I think it totally true that a guy with a quad will win if everything else equal. But it's difficult for many of them to make "everything else equal" when they had a quad because they were so much more worried and distressed with a quad. If Takahashi decided to come here with just one quad, he might have done so much better. Johnny might have been so much more relaxed. Tomas might have been so much less upset etc etc.

I think that Jeff being so relaxed here was partly because he decided early enough to let go of a quad from his program this time. So perhaps he didn't need to be consumed by quad practices and emotional ups and downs. Yes, he DID need to work on consistency on his 3As and lutzs which were not all easy and I completely acknowledge and respect that. Having said that, however, putting a quad on top of 3As and lutzs would have certainly consumed him even more. At the last Worlds, Jeff went for a quad and had a dissapointing performance after that. So I think it really a wise choice for him this time.

Although Takahashi scored 20 points over 245 with two quads recently, it was the world record. This was the very best for him just as it was for Jeff this time and would not be easily repeated by him or others. Takahashi is not known for his quad but more for other things like steps, skating skills, and artistry that are really at the very top levels. He also tends to be pretty consistent in his other jumps. Not many guys could match these qualities.

So I think that Jeff made a strong statement that one jump doesn't define the sport as Johnny said and that men might have other areas to work on than focusing on a quad.

 

[silver.blades]

Joesitz made a question in the Men FS thread about wether is a quad necesary to win Worlds and I've been thinking about it (and yes, I'm pro-quad) but I think it is and this is why.

Sorry, but I find this a bit of an odd time to bring this up after Jeff won the wold title without a quad. This obviously proves that it is possible to win a world title without a quad.
Yes a skater who does a quad 2 3A and 2 3Lz who maxes out their non jump elements and skates clean will score higher than a skater who skates the same without a quad, but that dosn't make it impossible to win without one. Half the battle is doing it when it counts, so a quadless skater has less control over their destiny than a skater with a quad, but they don't compeatly rely on others to get the win, if that makes sense. Jeff won because he skated clean and that's more important than doing a quad. The if's don't matter, those are always there. If competitions were based on talent Emauel Snadu would be a multiple world chamipon and you can't discredate a win because other skater would have won if they'd skated their best. So after that long winded speech, the quand is not nessisary to win a world title, and it probably won't be for a long time. It helps and the majority of the world champions in the future will probably have one but it's not essencial and there will probably be another quadless world champ in a decade or so just to prove my point.

 

[Bennett]

I agree. I think that a skater with a quad doesn't often have the control over his destiny because they bomb so often! Having a greater risk actually gives you less control over his destiny. I would say that only skaters with a truly consistent, reliable quad has control over their destiny.

 

[PolymerBob]

I don't have the hard data in front of me, but I think this is the first Worlds in many years that a man won without Quad Almighty.

 

[Mathman]

I don't have the hard data in front of me, but I think this is the first Worlds in many years that a man won without Quad Almighty.

Was the last time Todd Eldredge in 1996?

Of course for 7 of the intervening years we had Yagudin or Plushenko. The quadsters in the current mix -- well, they are not Yagudin or Plushenko, so they can be beaten by lesser mortals.

Edited to add: By the way, for the top ten men in the LP, the average value of a quad was 6.38 (8 attempts.)

The average value of a triple Axel was 6.81 (18 attempts.)

For the ladies, the average value of a triple Axel was 0.12 points. (There were 2 attempts. Asada got a total of -1.00, counting the fall deduction, and Nakano netted 1.24.)

 

[Bennett]

Edited to add: By the way, for the top ten men in the LP, the average value of a quad was 6.38 (8 attempts.)

The average value of a triple Axel was 6.81 (18 attempts.)

For the ladies, the average value of a triple Axel was 0.12 points. (There were 2 attempts. Asada got a total of -1.00, counting the fall deduction, and Nakano netted 1.24.)

That's really interesting.

I am also questioning 3A for ladies for the same reason. Mao has landed it cleanly only once a season during the last two seasons. This season, she landed it only twice, with one of them being double-footed resulting in a lower point than Yuna's 3lz with plus GOE. Thanks goodness that she doesn't give up any longer after a failed attemp though. But still, it's not only risky point-wise but also mentally and physically demanding.

I would really wish that Takahashi hadn't sticked to the two quads plan here despite the low success rate in the final practices. He would have been so much more relaxed. I think it a myth that they were forced to believe in and that he might have been too much concerned about other guys who had that weapon.

 

[sebj]

theres sooo much discussion like EVERYWHERE on this topic but like really this is a debate that is on going. sure the quad racks up MANY points, especially if you have 3 quads in your program. but imo the point of skating isn't jump after jump after jump, and jef proved that well; theres also the spins and footwork etc. and i agree with silver.blades, if it was based on talent then emmanuel sandhu would be multiple world champ. he is very very talented but just can't seem to pull it together when its needed.

the past while, the quaders have been crowned because, realise that they also had other elements and other jumps too. also with the number of top skaters being able to (or possible attempt) do a 4, the chances would be that a quader will get crowned. also note that its not like jeff has NEVER done a 4 before. he HAS landed them in practice and attemped it at the olympics.

and quote-ish from johnny weir, how many times have we seen skaters at the bottom, do the quad, but still stay at the bottom. not imply anything since he is an absolutely amazing skater, but point example kevin reynolds. he can do a 4-3-3 but yet at nationals he came in 6th, and in 9th at JWC

 

[chuckm]

Joubert lost to Buttle because Brian had only two combination in his FS, and one was a 2A+1T. Buttle had three, including a 3/2/2, a 3/3 and a 3/2; he also had two 3As, two 3Zs, a 3F, a 3L and a 3S, thus maxing out his jumps.

Brian had the quad, a 3F/3T and a solo 3F, the 2A+1T combo, and one each of 3A, 3Z, 3L and 3F. He left a lot of points on the table, and got dinged for two edge calls on his flips (Brian has admitted that he doesn't do a proper flip, so it makes no sense that the one jump he repeated was a flip). I think he omitted a lot of the combos because after his serious illness, he just didn't have the stamina to do them, and/or he was afraid that if he attempted them, he wouldn't skate clean. He probably thought that doing a clean quad and a FS with no mistakes was enough for him to beat Buttle, who had been skating pretty sloppily all season, never turning in a clean FS.

I hope Johnny has learned a good lesson from this as well. He cannot afford to leave combinations on the table, and he has to make sure that his footwork is never lower than L3, and his spins must be all L4.

 

[antmanb]

Was the last time Todd Eldredge in 1996?

Of course for 7 of the intervening years we had Yagudin or Plushenko. The quadsters in the current mix -- well, they are not Yagudin or Plushenko, so they can be beaten by lesser mortals.

Edited to add: By the way, for the top ten men in the LP, the average value of a quad was 6.38 (8 attempts.)

The average value of a triple Axel was 6.81 (18 attempts.)

For the ladies, the average value of a triple Axel was 0.12 points. (There were 2 attempts. Asada got a total of -1.00, counting the fall deduction, and Nakano netted 1.24.)

I think MM raises a really intersting point about the quad and Yagudin and Pluschenko. They were so consistent with the quad that it was taken for granted that the 4/3 would be their combo jump in the SP. With that in mind (maybe not so mch when Yags was around under 6.0) certainly for Pluschenko - if you wanted your points to even come clsoe you would have to risk a quad in the SP. Since Pluschenko has been absent very few skaters skaters risked a quad in the SP. Even skaters for whom it has been pretty consistent - Takahashi, even Van de Perren. In fact only four skaters risked the quad in the SP : Lambiel, Joubert, Voronov and Abbot.

Unless a skater from the current crop, or another one comes along (or back!) who can nail the quad as consistently as his other jumps then a skater who can land a triple axel and can confortably lay down an 8 triple program, will always be in the mix for a medal including the gold, on the basis that the ones with inconsistent quads and/or triple axels can be relied upon to be inconsistent.

Ant

 

[elye]

I think the right question is:
Just a Quad to cover any shortfall?

If jeff need a Quad to win in future the others need don't make mistakes it!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Can we safely say that a man must land a perfect quad or two, and a lady must show ballet-like arms and 3x3s?

All this chatter about must-dos, goes against the principles of the CoP. If the judges are intelligent enough to score the elements without bias, then the result of the tally lies within the computer.

If quads are required jumps then all men must practice them or get out of figure skating. Ladies unable to do 3x3s and have ballet-like arms should also get out of figure skating. What is the point of competition if we are driving athletes out of the mix?

Joe

 

[jennylovskt]

Maybe some of you have forgotten that besides the inconsistency of the quad guys, the none-quad guys were inconsistent too. Buttle was not consistent in his jumps for a long time. The men's event at this World was his moment to shine. He rose and skated probably the skate of his life, while others faltered or did not estimate enough of his abilities. That does not change the fact that quad would give one an edge.

So theoretically (I say" theoretically" because no one has consistent quad and has complete package like Yagudin or Plushenko yet.) I totally agree with Ximena's first post that quad is necessory to win a World. You have to prepare with it/them to insure your position even before the competition, even before you know how everyone else skates. Although we might see down to the road 10 years from now that some one might still win a World without a quad, it still is a luck, not a sure thing.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

^^

In that case could we just have a jump contest and forget about the figure skating since only the men who land the quad will be considered to win.? We really don't need music.

Joe

 

[jennylovskt]

Joe, please! This thread from the very beginning was based on the assumption that a skater skates like how Buttle skated at this World, which means that assum that a skater has maximized everything, including artistry, then the quad would give the edge. At least, that is what I meant and how I comprehended. Quad it alone, like two 3axels alone, can not win anything. Can you win anything with 8 triples, 3 combos, just jumps with no quad but without the quality of the spins and footworks and everything else?

One example, compare Daisuke Takahashi's this season 4CC FS (which I believe that he had maximized everything.) with Jeffrey Buttle's this year's World FS (which I also believed that he had maximized everything.), who do you think would win?