Split thread - Grand Prix Picks discussion

[Sylvia]

"The envelope level ... is used to determine funding levels. It is not used as a strict guideline for selections to international competitions."

The published criteria for A, B, C and Reserve (announced before the start of the 2007-08 season) were followed:
http://www.usfigureskating.org/Shell.asp?cat=2&sid=35400

There apparently is an "unwritten" rule that athletes aren't dropped more than 2 levels in consecutive seasons (Emily Hughes and Gregory/Petukhov go from A to C, for example). The Reserve team includes "those in last year's envelopes [A-C] not qualifying this year" (minus the skaters who did not compete, have since retired and/or teams that have officially split since Nationals).

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

They will all get at least one GP and the presumed weakest will have to travel the big distances.

Big Question: Who will be in Skate America, and Skate Canada - the easiest to travel.

Joe

 

[PolymerBob]

They will all get at least one GP and the presumed weakest will have to travel the big distances.

Big Question: Who will be in Skate America, and Skate Canada - the easiest to travel.

Joe

The most important thing is that USFSA doesn't force Rachael, Caroline and Mirai to eliminate each other. That would be pretty aweful. :sheesh:

 

[chuckm]

The most important thing is that USFSA doesn't force Rachael, Caroline and Mirai to eliminate each other. That would be pretty aweful. :sheesh:

I have to agree. These 3 ladies should be at 6 separate events, and never have to skate against one another. But don't be surprised if some host opts for all 3 of them. I just hope it WON'T be the US.

 

[Mathman]

The most important thing is that USFSA doesn't force Rachael, Caroline and Mirai to eliminate each other. That would be pretty aweful. :sheesh:

If the rules remain the same as last year, Skate America must choose one of Asada, Kostner and Kim, and one of Nakano, Rochette and Meier. They are allowed three U.S. skaters. Pure guess, but I think they might give the first option to Mirai as National Champion. Then I think they might go with Kimmie (I hope Alissa gets a chance at number three, but it's a crowded field!)

I would assume that Caroline and Rachael (and also Mirai, if she isn't chosen for Skate America) are sufficiently popular that they will be chosen for two other events even if this is not guarenteed. Where do Bebe and Ashley fit in?

It's hard to know what USFS will be thinking. Will they want all of their most popular U.S. ladies at Skate America, to make the event as successful as possible in the U.S.? Or will they try to play the stategic game, perhaps in consultation with the other host federations?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

If the rules remain the same as last year, Skate America must choose one of Asada, Kostner and Kim, and one of Nakano, Rochette and Meier. They are allowed three U.S. skaters. Pure guess, but I think they might give the first option to Mirai as National Champion. Then I think they might go with Kimmie (I hope Alissa gets a chance at number three, but it's a crowded field!)

I would assume that Caroline and Rachael (and also Mirai, if she isn't chosen for Skate America) are sufficiently popular that they will be chosen for two other events even if this is not guarenteed. Where do Bebe and Ashley fit in?

It's hard to know what USFS will be thinking. Will they want all of their most popular U.S. ladies at Skate America, to make the event as successful as possible in the U.S.? Or will they try to play the stategic game, perhaps in consultation with the other host federations?

Maybe you have changed about Strategy which I brought up two years ago.
For a skater to make the GPFinal he/she would have to fall into the following results of the individual GPs.

2 Gold medals.- 6 events. 3possibilites

1 Gold; 1 Silver- 6 events. 6possibilities

2 Silver medals- 6 events. 6 possibilities

l Bronze and 1 Gold.- 6 events. 6possibilites

Anything less than above has no possibilities.

How much Feds have control over who goes where I do not know. For Skate America, they pick only 1 of the top 3 and 2 others who could use the experience.

For Skate Canada - It shold be Rochette or Leung and 2 promising skaters.

For the convenience of travel, I can see;

YuNa at SA and SC
Carolina at France and Russia
Mao at China and Japan

So for strategy purposes where do you put the other contenders? The Feds should be aware of this.

Joe

 

[PolymerBob]

Maybe you have changed about Strategy which I brought up two years ago.
For a skater to make the GPFinal he/she would have to fall into the following results of the individual GPs.

2 Gold medals.- 6 events. 3possibilites

1 Gold; 1 Silver- 6 events. 6possibilities

2 Silver medals- 6 events. 6 possibilities

l Bronze and 1 Gold.- 6 events. 6possibilites

Anything less than above has no possibilities.
Joe

unless you are Caroline Zhang, ...............
who made it with a silver and a bronze.

 

[sillylionlove]

Ok maybe I am a little confused here........but isn't the envelopes just for how much funding they get...not what competitions or how many competitions they get? Or I am totally off base here???? :scratch:

 

[Mathman]

Ok maybe I am a little confused here........but isn't the envelopes just for how much funding they get...not what competitions or how many competitions they get? Or I am totally off base here???? :scratch:

Yes, I think that's right. But the thread has meandered off into the separate but somewhat related question of who will be assigned in the Grand Prix.

So for strategy purposes where do you put the other contenders? The Feds should be aware of this.

I am not sure that USFS has any say over this (?)

Does USFS "assign," say, Caroline Zhang to skate in Ttophee Eric Bompard, or does the French federation invite her? Do federations get together and say, I'll invute your skater if you invite mine?

If the organizers of the Eric Bompard event choose Caroline Zhang, can USFS say, "no, we want her to skate at Cup of China instead because there will be less competition there?

I really think that the opportunities for "strategy" are very limited. No matter what event Caroline Zhang (to pick a particular example) is selected for, she will face one of the top three skaters in last years' Worlds and one of skaters 4-6. I don't think that either she or USFS has the option of saying, no, Caroline won't skate at NHK against Mao Asada, she would rather take her chances at Cup of Russia against Carolina Kostner.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Does USFS "assign," say, Caroline Zhang to skate in Ttophee Eric Bompard, or does the French federation invite her? Do federations get together and say, I'll invute your skater if you invite mine?

Good point! I'm not sure if any Fed has any say in assignments other than their own venue. And there is the point about invitations' I presume Japan, Canada and Korea have the right to invite first in that order followed by some order of USA, China and Russia.

btw. What if Caroline Zhang refuses Eric Bompard? She wants SA and SC.
How DO the assignments work. Only fans like us MM want to know how the mix is divided up.

If the organizers of the Eric Bompard event choose Caroline Zhang, can USFS say, "no, we want her to skate at Cup of China instead because there will be less competition there?

Can they? That is my question, too. As above, can Caroline refuse? Who has the power?

I really think that the opportunities for "strategy" are very limited. No matter what event Caroline Zhang (to pick a particular example) is selected for, she will face one of the top three skaters in last years' Worlds and one of skaters 4-6. I don't think that either she or USFS has the option of saying, no, Caroline won't skate at NHK against Mao Asada, she would rather take her chances at Cup of Russia against Carolina Kostner.

There is definitely strategy with a host GP. It would be foolish to put Caroline, Mirai, and Rachael all into SA given the odds of gold and silver very limited and dependent on which of the three automatics will be at SA. I think it will be Mirai to conserve on travel. She doesn't even have to be invited. (the strategy is deeper than you think, imo, If only for a silver medal). What the strategy for USFS should be is to let 2 promising skaters, e.g., Wagner, Kimmie to SA and not Caroline or Rachael who need to get silvers elsewhere. But with Nakano (aside from Asada), one has to think of where to put Caroline and Rachael. The best bet would be to go where Kostner goes for one of them.

However, we do not know how these invites are handed out and who has control of them, can they be refused, and is there bargaining in them.

Joe

 

[McWicked]

wow, this' so confusin, my gf explained 2me that skaters apply 4 the events they want 2 & then they get accepted or rejected & they cant refuse the decisions the federation mks.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

wow, this' so confusin, my gf explained 2me that skaters apply 4 the events they want 2 & then they get accepted or rejected & they cant refuse the decisions the federation mks.

Is that gospel? We tossed this around last year and realized that the Feds do it all. However, I would prefer the skates to do it.

Joe

 

[chuckm]

Here is how skaters are chosen for the Grand Prix.

First, the host countries pick three of their own skaters/teams from each discipline. The picks can be seeds, but they do not have to meet any ISU criteria (i.e., they don't have to be on the ISU Ranking list or the Seasons Best list). The USFS could pick Gregory/Petukhov as one of their dance teams, since G/P don't meet any of the ISU criteria for an invitation by another host.

Then the hosts draw for order of selection in each of the following categories:
1. Seeds 1-3
2. Seeds 4-6
3. Top 6-12 at Worlds
4. Top 24 on ISU Ranking list
5. Top 24 on SB Ranking list
6. Remaining spots, chosen from the top 75 on the Seasons Best list.

I wish the USFS would be a savvy as Skate Canada is when it comes to selections. This year, Skate Canada has a seed in every category (and two seeds in Pairs), and they can enhance the possibilities of their lower-ranked skaters finishing on or close to the podium by being careful with their selections---depending, of course, on where they place in the draw order.

 

[ManyCairns]

Here is how skaters are chosen for the Grand Prix.
I wish the USFS would be a savvy as Skate Canada is when it comes to selections. This year, Skate Canada has a seed in every category (and two seeds in Pairs), and they can enhance the possibilities of their lower-ranked skaters finishing on or close to the podium by being careful with their selections---depending, of course, on where they place in the draw order.

Here, here! and I wish the USFS would be more savvy in proposing rule changes that benefit our skaters, etc. as Doris explained other federations are good at doing vis-a-vis dance. We need to play the game better to make the conditions for our skaters as optimal as possible -- so then it can be up to them to do it on the ice, or not.

 

[nadster]

For Skate Canada - It shold be Rochette or Leung and 2 promising skaters.


Joe

Rochette will definitely be at Skate Canada. Home countries get to pick their 3 home picks first before the seeded skaters are slotted and Rochette is by far the biggest draw of the Canadian ladies

I think the other 2 Canadian entries for Skate Canada will be Hawker and Samson since Samson is unlikely to get invites from other federations ( her world best ranking and ISU rank is too low) and Hawker is likely to get only one invite but not 2. Hawker and Samson aren't guaranteed any invites.

Leung and Phaneuf are guaranteed one invite so most likely will get the second one anyway. Pretty much anyone guaranteed one spot will always end up getting 2.

The other Canadian ladies don't even have the technical content, the presentation or the consistency to compete on the senior level as of this moment. If somehow, someone gains a lot of jumps over the summer, they may get a Nebelhorn invite ( Samson will most definitely go there) and compete with Samson for the last Skate Canada slot. I somehow doubt Samson will lose her spot this way though.

 

[Mathman]

Here is how skaters are chosen for the Grand Prix.

First, the host countries pick three of their own skaters/teams from each discipline. The picks can be seeds, but they do not have to meet any ISU criteria...

Then the hosts draw for order of selection in each of the following categories:
1. Seeds 1-3
2. Seeds 4-6
3. Top 6-12 at Worlds
4. Top 24 on ISU Ranking list
5. Top 24 on SB Ranking list
6. Remaining spots, chosen from the top 75 on the Seasons Best list.

Thank you. A very clear explanation.

I remember last year that Yu-Na Kim was disappointed that she was not selected for either Stake America or Skate Canada, her first two preferences.

Skate America went with Miki Ando instead, and Skate Canada chose Mao Asada from the top group.

I have wondered which federations won the draw and got to choose first. Did the U.S. and Canada pass over Kim, prefering Ando and Asada? Or was Kim already off the table, having been chosen by two other events first before the North American federations' turn came up?

 

[Tonichelle]

alright, I'm doing my best to split the USFSA Envelope and Grand Prix picks discussion as requested by a few members. hang tight!

 

[Wrlmy]

As for ladies, Skate Canada would definitely want Carolina Kostner. That way, Joannie would have a great chance at winning. Trophee Bompard, Cup of China, and Cup of Russia wouldn't have a clear favorite in that regard since they don't have a strong lady. NHK Trophy will choose Mao Asada and pass Yukari Nakano to give her a chance of winning somewhere else. SA has to pick two non-American seeded skaters and has to be stretegic in the pick. If the host nations can deal with each other, my guess is CoR, CoC, and TB will get "left-overs".

So, my prediction is
SA: Yu-Na Kim, Sarah Meier
SC: Carolina Kostner, Joannie Rochette
CoC: Mao Asada, Sarah Meier
TB: Carolina Kostner, YUkari Nakano
CoR: Yu-NA Kim, Yukari Nakano
NHK: Mao Asada, Joannie Rochette

 

[Tinymavy15]

The most important thing is that USFSA doesn't force Rachael, Caroline and Mirai to eliminate each other. That would be pretty aweful. :sheesh:

even if they all had the same event and placed 1,2 and 3.. the third would not be officially "eliminated". If she won a gold or even a silver at a second event she could make the GPF.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

unless you are Caroline Zhang, ...............
who made it with a silver and a bronze.

Correct, and that was a nail biter. I forget who lost out.

Joe

even if they all had the same event and placed 1,2 and 3.. the third would not be officially "eliminated". If she won a gold or even a silver at a second event she could make the GPF.

The Third placer would have to win the next GP and maybe only with a silver. She would be up against one of the top automatic podium 2008 worlds plus another top skater in the same event. Two bronze will not go to the Finals.

Think of the tie last year which Zhang squeezed in the Finals.

Joe