Was 2024 GPF evidence we are in the "jumping" era?

[Karoltyna]

Louder, please, for people in the back.

And, I want in particular to underline that Malinin's Step Sequence was level 3, while Kagiyama's was level 2, with maximum attainable level being 4. Malinin, while carrying a huge jumping load versus Kagiyama still beat him on steps too.

Ummmm programs with +10 jump passes were scored totally different - there was no BV and GOE on each element. Jumps were doubles and tripples and it could be 70% 3T in the program and you could win if all your 3T were clean - see Zayak rule. There were compulsory figures (at the ime they had 60% value), so skaters didn't have to showcase certain qualities during FS and until '70 there was no SP in singles, so FS (40% of value) was the only opportunity to show your jumping abilities and it was truly "free skate", substantially longer than now and with no restrictions on elements. TBH you can't compare the impact of jumps in '70 and now.
As to stsq levels - it is uncommon for Yuma to reach level 2, he mostly gets level 3 or 4. It is common for Ilia to reach level 3. Yuma didn't have the best skate, still won the FS, with this level 2. Ilia didn't have best FS, but his SP was the best, so he won overall and overall if Yuma had even level 4, it wouldn't matter for the standings. Yuma had only one negative GOE. Ilia had 7 negative GOE. Yuma won FS only by 1.5 points. If you can win with poorly executed jumps that have higher BV than well executed jumps of your competitor (even poped 4 to 2S had positive GOE), it means we are in jumping era. It isn't the matter of how many jumps are performed but how they impact the score.

 

[lariko]

Not to mention that in the 2022 Olympics there was no sequence rule so less free points like there are now.

given how easily Ignatova jumped multiple 2A in a row, despite her legendary trouble with 3A, she would have been able to use that rule to her advantage on combos. Eh, I miss her. Wish she managed to do a come back teased this year. Perhaps, another year in training could do it.

 

[Mathman]

To return to the oeiginal thread topic, I woud say that, no, the 2024 Grand Prix Final did not tell us anything that we did not already know. In men's, Malinin's results showed #1, that skaters who present advanced jump content have a head start on the competition, and #2,that the big jumpers still have to deliver or someone else can creep up and challenge them.

In women's -- well, I guess we learned the same thing.

 

[eppen]

The quad has now fairly thoroughly penetrated all ranks of singles skating and I think you can feel the sheer rise in quantity even without quantifying it.

The numbers for quad attempts for the first part of the season before end of December nats for pre- and post-pandemic years.
2019 824
(2020 not comparable for pandemic, but 520 should you be interested)
2021 1171
2022 1066
2023 1467
2024 1613

At least 236 skaters have attempted quads in 2024, for the pre-pandemic season 2019-20 the figure was 138.

I have now systematically collected quads and women's 3As for some years and in the beginning I could easily have skipped the results for most domestic competitions as well as most novice and junior competitions. Not a possibility any more, if you really aim at seeing at least most of the results.

The jump (pun intended) upwards in numbers for the postpandemic seasons is massive and I am not surprised that the discussion about jumps vs artistry has been lively.

E

 

[eppen]

As an afterthought women's 3As for the first part of the season until about mid-December before the last nationals.
2018 69
2019 106
(2020 52)
2021 146
2022 128
2023 118
2024 170

Women's quads are attempted mostly by Russian novice and junior aged girls, and we'll have to wait and see if any one of them will be able to do quads when they reach the current senior age.

The 3A on the other hand is attempted more by non-Russian skaters and is also something senior women can do regularly. Remains to be seen if the current juniors are able to maintain their jumps when they grow up.

I have started to wonder whether this wave of ultra-cs for women is fading... The first one in the 1980s/early 1990s was fairly weak and did not really result in 3A becoming a staple for women. There is a chance that this could happen now, but am not quite convinced.

The quad revolution started in 2017-18 is now seemingly settling to quads as a skill for the Russian novice and junior girls but is not really something that senior women do (Russian or not).

Women will probably continue pretty much the same way things have been going on for the past 30 years or so when it comes to jumps.

The OPs observation that the way Malinin's jumps were all q/</<< was somehow unique is not really true eg Gumennik's 2+5 set in November this year at the Russian GP series - all 7 attempts, Ilia had one good ;-) And if you look at women's scores when the tech panel are particularly strict... Can be pretty heavy.

E

 

[Mathman]

The quad has now fairly thoroughly penetrated all ranks of singles skating and I think you can feel the sheer rise in quantity even without quantifying it.

The numbers for quad attempts for the first part of the season before end of December nats for pre- and post-pandemic years.
2019 824
(2020 not comparable for pandemic, but 520 should you be interested)
2021 1171
2022 1066
2023 1467
2024 1613

At least 236 skaters have attempted quads in 2024, for the pre-pandemic season 2019-20 the figure was 138.

Still, this is not anything new, it's just how sports develop in general. Cecilia College landed the first ladies. double jump in 1936. Then a few more did it. Then more, Then everyone was doing it. Then someone did a triple. Then more skaters did triples. then even more, until you had to have an acceptable arsenal of triples to compete. Then someone did a quad...

 

[eppen]

Still, this is not anything new, it's just how sports develop in general. Cecilia College landed the first ladies. double jump in 1936. Then a few more did it. Then more, Then everyone was doing it. Then someone did a triple. Then more skaters did triples. then even more, until you had to have an acceptable arsenal of triples to compete. Then someone did a quad...

Sooooorry for the suuuuper slow reply, but sometimes life etc.

That is certainly one way of looking at it - a simple linear evolution. However, the processes are hardly ever that straightforward and simple. There are all kinds of circumstances that inform and sometimes affect the outcome.

Rules and regulations were perhaps not limiting jumping in the free programs until the 1980s when the Zayak rule came to be, but the unwritten rule of perfection probably slowed down the jump development somewhat - you would not try anything new and daring in competition until it was pretty solid and consistent. Officially, triples started to get attempted and landed in the 1950s, but there is indication that some skaters were doing them already just before the WWII - a decade of delays? (Stevens's book Technical Merit mentions a possible 3S already in 1939.) Not to mention a generation of talented skaters lost in the war...

Officially it took 26 years to get men's triples landed, from Dick Button's 3Lo in 1952 to Vern Taylor's 3A in 1978. By 1978, multiple triples, usually 3T, 3S and 3Lo, were part of most elite men's jump repertoires and some were doing also 3Lz and attempting 3A. By the late 1980s, I think quite a few elite men had all six triples consistent enough to put them on competition ice.

We know actually quite a lot about the early history of quads before anyone tried them in competition and most of it is from North America. In a way, then Fadeev, a Soviet skater, getting the first attempt is kind of surprising.

After that and the first good one in 1988, the quad was really not a big hit until the late 1990s - it could have basically just gone away even for men. But whatever happened around 1996-97, things changed quite quicklyand the quad really became the next step in tech evolution.

Yeah, except then ISU started to rule jumps with a stern hand and the 2000s saw another slow period. If they had continued with the early IJS judging, they might even have killed the quad...

The 2010s rule and scoring changes enouraged risk-taking and movement towards increased variety in jumps and that has resulted in what we see happening now. But it took 35 years from the first successful quad to the moment when someone had all of them and probably for the time being that will be just Malinin. I am curious to see whether in about 10 years time there will be a bunch of skaters who have all six quads and will be able to jump them in competition as well as triples were jumped in the late 1980s.

And with women, I don't know what to think really. What looked for a moment like getting 3As and quads as staples also in women's jump repertoire seems to be going away. There are many young Russian girls going for it and I am really curious to see how many of them - or if any - will be able to maintain a quad when they're seniors.

So, not so simple linear evolution, but rather fairly complicated paths from the first time to becoming commonplace.

E

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I think we did see some lovely skating at the GPF.

For sure it's not just figure jumping - but I would rather see a jump fest from a clean skater win the Olympics than a nice program with much easier content or riddled with errors. There has to come a point where we start docking athletes who just aren't bringing their technical game, and give the medals and results to the skaters who show up to play.

Too many instances (and still) PCS is used as a device to "save" sloppy, popular skaters from being off the podium, while some skaters who are bringing better technical game and pushing the sport have to skates lights out just to challenge them or nudge past them. Not to add salt, but the scores for skaters like Gilles/Poirier in the RD (half the judges gave 8.75/9.00's for presentation?!), or Kagiyama (too many 9's with a fall), Aymoz SP (8.5/8.75's with no clean jumping pass - 2 falls and a botched 3-3?!) or Miura/Kihara FS (Georgians should have gotten silver) were clearly "saves" due to their popularity.

There is also no guarantee that removing these jumps will suddenly create all these appealing programs. Also great jumpers aren't synonymous with skaters who have compromised/less-than-ideal artistry or choreo. There are plenty of skaters in the middle of the good jumper good skater Venn diagram, and even though people have their faves, we should try to be fair and objective in who deserves to win if they actually earn it.

 

[Mathman]

To tell the truth, this thread is somewhat baffling to me. This particular competition (the Grand Prix Final) offered nothing particular in the way of jumping versus PCSs, or how terrible (or excellent) the judging was, or really much of anything else. In men's Malinin jumped a lot of quads but made mistakes on all of them. Ho hum. Other men did pretty well technically, while some did and some didn't excel in peromance and skating skills. Last year's Worlds brought much more grist to the "are we in the jumping era" mill than this competition did.

In ladies the jumping was average and mostly well executed. Amber Glenn did a triple Axel and that carried the day. All were lovely. My biggest takeaway -- nothing to see here, folks.

 

[skylark]

We entered the jumping era when Plushenko, Putin and a multitude created a movement that ended with ISU deciding and changing the rules so that taking risks would earn more points than skating with precision and without mistakes.

That was after 2010 olympics, when Evan Lysacek legitimately won the gold medal over Plushenko via the technical score, as it was mandated by the rules and judged in that competition: great jumping technique, grade of execution, and the rest.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

To tell the truth, this thread is somewhat baffling to me. This particular competition (the Grand Prix Final) offered nothing particular in the way of jumping versus PCSs, or how terrible (or excellent) the judging was, or really much of anything else. In men's Malinin jumped a lot of quads but made mistakes on all of them. Ho hum. Other men did pretty well technically, while some did and some didn't excel in peromance and skating skills. Last year's Worlds brought much more grist to the "are we in the jumping era" mill than this competition did.

In ladies the jumping was average and mostly well executed. Amber Glenn did a triple Axel and that carried the day. All were lovely. My biggest takeaway -- nothing to see here, folks.

This is a bit misleading. Malinin landed plenty of clean quads at the GPF. A 'q' is still considered clean (just incurs a GOE reduction). He got hammered hard by a rather strict tech panel, however a UR or q doesn't detract from a program. A major error like a pop or fall (which he had one of - on a quad lutz, at that) does. I love how 100 TES in spite of a tech call on every jumping pass is "Ho Hum".

Your standards have gotten much higher it seems, Mathman! Malinin - for the first time in history - attempted EVERY one of the 6 types of quad (and it's not like he splatted or popped or downgraded on all of them, in attempting that), 5/6 skaters tried a quad flip or harder, and Shaidorov landed the first 3A+Eu+4S and that offers nothing particular in the way of jumping?

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

We entered the jumping era when Plushenko, Putin and a multitude created a movement that ended with ISU deciding and changing the rules so that taking risks would earn more points than skating with precision and without mistakes.

That was after 2010 olympics, when Evan Lysacek legitimately won the gold medal over Plushenko via the technical score, as it was mandated by the rules and judged in that competition: great jumping technique, grade of execution, and the rest.

Why should taking risks not earn more points if the risks pay off? Otherwise we might as well have everyone just do double jumps, and not have level requirements on spins and footwork, if we want to see precision skating without the risk of any mistakes (plenty of pre-IJS programs or less risky clean IJS programs that are available to watch).

 

[Mathman]

Still, I wonder if there is anything special about this particuar event in the long run. Yes, Malinin did 7 quads and scored 100 points in TES desipite some of them being not so excellent in quality. Kagiyama did 3 quads and scored 97 in TES despite popping an intended quad into a double, and won the LP.

Is this really eveidence of a new era in figure skating scoring and judging, or about risk-reward? In the 2024 Greand Prix Final LP (men's) there were 22 quads. In 2023 it was 20. Well... OK, I guess it's a new era.

Malinin's performance at worlds, on the other hand, yes I could see why enthusiastic fans might gush about "new eras."

 

[gmyers]

Living in America it’s hard not to look at US nationals and see that if malinin didn’t exist Jason brown would be two time and defending champion!! So how can it be a jumping era is in America you don’t need a quad to be successful in any way? The top skaters all have quads. But if they left there is nothing to demand them.

 

[skatingfan4ever]

Living in America it’s hard not to look at US nationals and see that if malinin didn’t exist Jason brown would be two time and defending champion!! So how can it be a jumping era is in America you don’t need a quad to be successful in any way? The top skaters all have quads. But if they left there is nothing to demand them.

Jason is an outlier. Every other top-finishing U.S. skater attempts quads. Less variety of quads than Malinin, but they do attempt 4T or 4S. I think if Jason struggles at Nationals like this year's GP, and Andrew or Max (for instance) land their quads, I think Jason could finish behind them. He did finish behind Andrew at NHK and Andrew only did one 4T in each program (with getting a q in the LP no less). Yes, Jason gets better PCS, but if his jumps aren't successful he loses points, and if others land their jumps, including quads, he can be beaten.

If you define a "jumping era" as having multiple skaters attempting multiple quads per program and the harder ones like 4F, 4Lo, 4Lz, or 4A, then yes, Malinin is the only U.S. man in that category.

Also, the skating world is much bigger than the United States. There are many skaters around the world, particularly those lower in the standings, who only attempt one type of quad. In short, I don't see the need for such negativity toward the jumping of the U.S. men. Quads are difficult to land. They don't just get landed because skaters want to land them. It takes good technique, a lot of practice, and a strong mentality. As far as number of skaters worldwide putting quads in programs, we are certainly in a jumping era, and have been since Boyang Jin appeared with a consistent 4Lz. (Before that, it was Patrick Chan who brought back 4Ts once they were worth more points in 2011).

 

[gmyers]

Jason is an outlier. Every other top-finishing U.S. skater attempts quads. Less variety of quads than Malinin, but they do attempt 4T or 4S. I think if Jason struggles at Nationals like this year's GP, and Andrew or Max (for instance) land their quads, I think Jason could finish behind them. He did finish behind Andrew at NHK and Andrew only did one 4T in each program (with getting a q in the LP no less). Yes, Jason gets better PCS, but if his jumps aren't successful he loses points, and if others land their jumps, including quads, he can be beaten.

If you define a "jumping era" as having multiple skaters attempting multiple quads per program and the harder ones like 4F, 4Lo, 4Lz, or 4A, then yes, Malinin is the only U.S. man in that category.

Also, the skating world is much bigger than the United States. There are many skaters around the world, particularly those lower in the standings, who only attempt one type of quad. In short, I don't see the need for such negativity toward the jumping of the U.S. men. Quads are difficult to land. They don't just get landed because skaters want to land them. It takes good technique, a lot of practice, and a strong mentality. As far as number of skaters worldwide putting quads in programs, we are certainly in a jumping era, and have been since Boyang Jin appeared with a consistent 4Lz. (Before that, it was Patrick Chan who brought back 4Ts once they were worth more points in 2011).

It’s possible! To me jump era means something concrete in the system in the system itself would be making them nearly mandatory. Not just the fact that since Malinin has 6 others are trying some they never did before. Though I did just see the post where the rule changes after 2010 is a way that the system is encouraging it. But those rules nearly abolished them they were so strict. Underotate a quad toe and get negative goe your 10 point attempt becomes 1 point! No one wants that again right?!?? Because that what was happening.

I believe I was commenting on Americas judges not Americas men. lol Americas judges would happily end quads today if they could. Ironically because of Chen and Malinin they mean more quads than ever. Artunian is a big reason as well as the drive of those a skaters.

 

[Mathman]

Underotate a quad toe and get negative goe your 10 point attempt becomes 1 point!

Well, not exactly. A quad toe is worth 9.50 points. If you underrotate, the value goes down to 7.60. If you also get, say, -3 GOE, it's still worth 5.72.

This is more than a level 4 step sequence with +4 GOE (5.46)), more than a combination change-foot change-position level 4 spin with +5 GOE (5.25), more than a satisfactory triple flip (5.30).

Actually, I quite admire the big quadsters like Nathan Chen, Adam SHF, and Ilia Malinin who take the time to work on their non-jump elements as well (for far less reward), aspiring to be regarded as complete skaters.

 

[Mathman]

Before that, it was Patrick Chan who brought back 4Ts once they were worth more points in 2011).

IMHO the arc of Patrck Chan's career was quite unique. He was already outstanding in terms of skating skills, and then added quads to his arsenal later, when the rules were hanged (especially in reducing the penalties for falls) after 2010.

In fact critics complained when he started winning world championships despite jump mistakes -- they wanted their old Patrick back, the two-time world silver medalist with the magical blades.

Since this thread is nominally about the 2024 Grand Prix Final, if I counted right, the men's LP featured 20 quad attempts, 13 had negative GOE and various rotation errors . 7 were OK, but only two of the seven were "advanced" jumps (beyond the toe and Salchow).

(I don't know what conclusion these data support. )

 

[gmyers]

Well, not exactly. A quad toe is worth 9.50 points. If you underrotate, the value goes down to 7.60. If you also get, say, -3 GOE, it's still worth 5.72.

This is more than a level 4 step sequence with +4 GOE (5.46)), more than a combination change-foot change-position level 4 spin with +5 GOE (5.25), more than a satisfactory triple flip (5.30).

Actually, I quite admire the big quadsters like Nathan Chen, Adam SHF, and Ilia Malinin who take the time to work on their non-jump elements as well (for far less reward), aspiring to be regarded as complete skaters.

This wasn’t true from 2007 to 2010. Now it’s true but in that period of time that saw men largely abandon doing quads
9,8 underrotated goes down to 4 with negative 3 goe goes down to 1. And if you fell that’s minus 1. So that’s zero

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpf0910/gpf0910_Men_FS_Scores.pdf

So the system could go back to this and you will see men largely abandon quads if you wanted that to Happen

 

[Mathman]

This wasn’t true from 2007 to 2010. Now it’s true but in that period of time that saw men largely abandon doing quads
9,8 underrotated goes down to 4 with negative 3 goe goes down to 1.

That's quite true. In those days, as I recall, a < was scored as a downgrade. That is, if you did only a triple toe instead of the quad toe that you dreamed of, sorry, no cigar. After 2010 this seemed not only too draconian a penalty, but also it put a burden on the tech panels to make an either-or call.

The IJS went through the same debates about wrong edges on Lutz and filp.

Are the scoring rules that we have now better or worse than back then? All the borderline and grey area calls that we have now does seem to be more suitable to figure skating, which puts on display a continuous spread of abilities. On the other hand, this in turn introduces more subjectivity into the judging, which the IJS was intended to curtail.