2025 NextGen Competition | July 17-20

[saine]

When considering assignments, we shouldn’t discount providing opportunities to young promising skaters / teams. Let’s not turn back any spots for sure Think “development” not just medals or top 6 placements

I think with Singles, they'll make use of Junior Internationals to provide more opportunities. Several skaters have done well at after getting one (Madeline Schizas winning bronze at Nationals in 2020, Fiona Bombardier winning bronze at Nationals 2023, Fee-Ann Landry winning Challenge and then 5th at Nationals 2024.)

Pairs though, they have enough JGP spots for the top 7 teams that they should all be used.

 

[NanaPat]

@NanaPat in any case, I just looked and there is no availability at the Holiday Inn Express in Gatineau during Nationals... sort of solves it for me

They usually book the whole place for skaters, officials, etc. But I don't think all skaters stay there; in Colorado Springs, we saw the Australian team (well, one skater and coach) walking past our hotel more than once.

 

[Skating Bobr]

@NanaPat in any case, I just looked and there is no availability at the Holiday Inn Express in Gatineau during Nationals... sort of solves it for me

Guess that is the hotel that is being used for the athletes, coaches and judges at Nationals. Probably now as well.

My data oriented impressions of the NextGen competition:
- Can't say much about ice dance cause it is very subjective, but the overall rank looked about right considering the complexity, speed and flow of the dances
- Pairs was very fair in the free program, Kemp/Elizarov just look very good right now compared to everyone else and the points reflect that. I had some questions about the short program but the free program compensated that.
- Women was a little more interesting in terms of being chaotic and unpredictable, some on here might argue the "immigrants" were underscored in the PCS, but they skated technically with no passion or soul. One might wonder if they even like skating. Those girls that have international experience (e.g. Reese Rose), did get comparable PCS here vs. international, so there was no blatant favouritism reflected in the Women's PCS.
- Men.......some of those scores in both the short and free were questionable. Take for example Grayson Long and David Bondar because they already competed this season with the same programs (with non-Canadian judges to remove domestic bias). I'll compare David's Lake Placid scores to NextGen and Grayson's Aqua Cup scores to NextGen (data can be found on skatingscores.com).
David Bondar
Short Program at Lake Placid:
Total: 75.18 (remove the 1 point bonus for triple triple combo and that's 74.18)
TES: 42.34 (41.34 without the bonus point for triple triple)
PCS: 32.84
Short Program at NextGen:
Total: 58.49
TES: 28.83
PCS: 29.66
There is video of both performances, only noticeable difference was the fall on the Lutz that should have been a combo. He got 3.54 points (factoring in the fall deduction its 2.54) at NextGen and 12.90 (11.90 deduction the 1 point bonus), so that's a difference of about 9.5 points. Spins looked similar to the ones at Lake Placid that got level 4, and so did the footwork that got level 3, so the level calls are inconsistent. PCS should be a bit lower in NextGen considering he had a major error, but lowering them by more than 3 points is interesting. My impression is that David would have gotten between 62-64 points for his short program with the Lake Placid judges.
Free Program at Lake Placid:
Total: 127.97 (125.97 removing the two points for triple triple combo)
TES: 62.53 (60.53 removing the two points for the triple triple combo)
PCS: 66.44 (comparable to JGP Wuxi PCS for a different LP)
Free Program at NextGen:
Total: 125.68
TES: 66.80
PCS: 57.88
Also video performance of both programs so you can compare yourself to see how objective I am being. Noticeable differences was in Lake Placid the 4T was << vs. < at NextGen (2.10 vs. 3.80), Lake Placid had a 1Lz+3T vs. 3Lz+3T< in NextGen (4.96 vs. 8.71) and an invalid spin in Lake Placid (0.00 vs. 3.15). So that is about 6.5 points more he should be getting at NextGen, but because the first axel combo was not as nice at NextGen and neither was the 3F+2A+2A, but 3S was better at NextGen so I'll lower it down to 5 points in TES more he should be getting at NextGen compared to Lake Placid. And that is reflected in the TES scores of both competitions. So naturally, because David has a higher TES and 2 less major errors in NextGen, one would think he would get a comparable PCS score (if not higher) at NextGen as he did in Lake Placid and YET.....he got over 8 points less at NextGen. Make it make sense. I just compared the programs and he looks more tired and had less connection with the music at Lake Placid. So shouldn't the PCS reflect that? If the Lake Placid judges gave him a score today, it would be about 9-11 points more (136 roughly). His combined score would be 196-198. I think someone mentioned David not looking happy in the Kiss and Cry with his performance, I think its more logical to say that was a reaction to his score, most probably the PCS. And from an objective standpoint he is valid for that because it doesn't feel like they gave him a score based on merit. Honestly, his free program was way above everyone else today. Only quad attempt, and 2 landed triple axels of the competition, and the rest of his triple jumps were landed too with no pops.

Now onto Grayson, there is no video of Aqua Cup so I can't compare the PCS or the levels of the spins or footwork, but I know that historically the Japanese are the least biased federation and culturally they value honour so are most likely to judge everyone based on their merit. Therefore, I believe the Japanese have more accurate scores. So without further ado....
Grayson Long
Short Program at Aqua Cup:
Total: 70.62 (71.62 with Canadian 3A bonus)
TES: 38.48 (39.48 with Canadian 3A bonus)
PCS: 32.14
Short Program at NextGen:
Total: 71.98
TES: 35.59
PCS: 35.39
Notable differences between programs is the triple triple combo. In Aqua Cup he did it and got 10.49, at NextGen he did 2Lz+3T which was worth 6.72 (about 4 points less). PCS is about 3 points higher at NextGen where the double triple combo was made, so I think the PCS score at NextGen was a tad inflated. If the Japanese judged this short program, they'd give it no higher than 68 (adding the 1 point 3A bonus).
Free Program at Aqua Cup:
Total: 125.42 (126.42 with Canadian 3A bonus)
TES: 63.24 (64.24 with Canadian 3A bonus)
PCS: 62.18
Free Program at NextGen:
Total: 123.03
TES: 56.27
PCS: 65.76
Notable differences in tech content was the 3Aq+3T at Aqua Cup vs 1A+2T at NextGen (9.27 vs. 2.40), the 3Lz+2A+2A at Aqua Cup vs the 2Lz+2A+2A at NextGen (13.95 vs. 9.82) and since he changed up his program at NextGen, he turned a what I think was supposed to be a solo 3Lz x (6.49 in the second half) into a 1Lz x (0.37) instead of a 3Lz x. That is a 17 point TES difference. As you can see, those are 3 major errors and the judging rules say that when there are 2 or more major interruptions the PCS should be lower than the PCS of a clean program. However, the opposite happened, they went up by 3.5 points. I think if the Aqua Cup judging panel saw this program they would give it no higher than 113 points. So 68 + 113 would give him a combined score of 181, which is lower than David's underscored 184.

Having done this analysis, I think an objective argument could be made that the Junior Men's event judging was biased and not done based on merit of the programs being performed yesterday or today. I would include other Junior Men for comparison, but unfortunately no one else has competed both of their current programs at non-domestic competitions.

If you made it this far, thank you for reading. I usually don't like commenting my two cents, but this time I just had to share with you all this analysis, cause this result just doesn't make any logical sense. The math just ain't mathing

 

[4everchan]

Guess that is the hotel that is being used for the athletes, coaches and judges at Nationals. Probably now as well.

My data oriented impressions of the NextGen competition:
- Can't say much about ice dance cause it is very subjective, but the overall rank looked about right considering the complexity, speed and flow of the dances
- Pairs was very fair in the free program, Kemp/Elizarov just look very good right now compared to everyone else and the points reflect that. I had some questions about the short program but the free program compensated that.
- Women was a little more interesting in terms of being chaotic and unpredictable, some on here might argue the "immigrants" were underscored in the PCS, but they skated technically with no passion or soul. One might wonder if they even like skating. Those girls that have international experience (e.g. Reese Rose), did get comparable PCS here vs. international, so there was no blatant favouritism reflected in the Women's PCS.
- Men.......some of those scores in both the short and free were questionable. Take for example Grayson Long and David Bondar because they already competed this season with the same programs (with non-Canadian judges to remove domestic bias). I'll compare David's Lake Placid scores to NextGen and Grayson's Aqua Cup scores to NextGen (data can be found on skatingscores.com).
David Bondar
Short Program at Lake Placid:
Total: 75.18 (remove the 1 point bonus for triple triple combo and that's 74.18)
TES: 42.34 (41.34 without the bonus point for triple triple)
PCS: 32.84
Short Program at NextGen:
Total: 58.49
TES: 28.83
PCS: 29.66
There is video of both performances, only noticeable difference was the fall on the Lutz that should have been a combo. He got 3.54 points (factoring in the fall deduction its 2.54) at NextGen and 12.90 (11.90 deduction the 1 point bonus), so that's a difference of about 9.5 points. Spins looked similar to the ones at Lake Placid that got level 4, and so did the footwork that got level 3, so the level calls are inconsistent. PCS should be a bit lower in NextGen considering he had a major error, but lowering them by more than 3 points is interesting. My impression is that David would have gotten between 62-64 points for his short program with the Lake Placid judges.
Free Program at Lake Placid:
Total: 127.97 (125.97 removing the two points for triple triple combo)
TES: 62.53 (60.53 removing the two points for the triple triple combo)
PCS: 66.44 (comparable to JGP Wuxi PCS for a different LP)
Free Program at NextGen:
Total: 125.68
TES: 66.80
PCS: 57.88
Also video performance of both programs so you can compare yourself to see how objective I am being. Noticeable differences was in Lake Placid the 4T was << vs. < at NextGen (2.10 vs. 3.80), Lake Placid had a 1Lz+3T vs. 3Lz+3T< in NextGen (4.96 vs. 8.71) and an invalid spin in Lake Placid (0.00 vs. 3.15). So that is about 6.5 points more he should be getting at NextGen, but because the first axel combo was not as nice at NextGen and neither was the 3F+2A+2A, but 3S was better at NextGen so I'll lower it down to 5 points in TES more he should be getting at NextGen compared to Lake Placid. And that is reflected in the TES scores of both competitions. So naturally, because David has a higher TES and 2 less major errors in NextGen, one would think he would get a comparable PCS score (if not higher) at NextGen as he did in Lake Placid and YET.....he got over 8 points less at NextGen. Make it make sense. I just compared the programs and he looks more tired and had less connection with the music at Lake Placid. So shouldn't the PCS reflect that? If the Lake Placid judges gave him a score today, it would be about 9-11 points more (136 roughly). His combined score would be 196-198. I think someone mentioned David not looking happy in the Kiss and Cry with his performance, I think its more logical to say that was a reaction to his score, most probably the PCS. And from an objective standpoint he is valid for that because it doesn't feel like they gave him a score based on merit. Honestly, his free program was way above everyone else today. Only quad attempt, and 2 landed triple axels of the competition, and the rest of his triple jumps were landed too with no pops.

Now onto Grayson, there is no video of Aqua Cup so I can't compare the PCS or the levels of the spins or footwork, but I know that historically the Japanese are the least biased federation and culturally they value honour so are most likely to judge everyone based on their merit. Therefore, I believe the Japanese have more accurate scores. So without further ado....
Grayson Long
Short Program at Aqua Cup:
Total: 70.62 (71.62 with Canadian 3A bonus)
TES: 38.48 (39.48 with Canadian 3A bonus)
PCS: 32.14
Short Program at NextGen:
Total: 71.98
TES: 35.59
PCS: 35.39
Notable differences between programs is the triple triple combo. In Aqua Cup he did it and got 10.49, at NextGen he did 2Lz+3T which was worth 6.72 (about 4 points less). PCS is about 3 points higher at NextGen where the double triple combo was made, so I think the PCS score at NextGen was a tad inflated. If the Japanese judged this short program, they'd give it no higher than 68 (adding the 1 point 3A bonus).
Free Program at Aqua Cup:
Total: 125.42 (126.42 with Canadian 3A bonus)
TES: 63.24 (64.24 with Canadian 3A bonus)
PCS: 62.18
Free Program at NextGen:
Total: 123.03
TES: 56.27
PCS: 65.76
Notable differences in tech content was the 3Aq+3T at Aqua Cup vs 1A+2T at NextGen (9.27 vs. 2.40), the 3Lz+2A+2A at Aqua Cup vs the 2Lz+2A+2A at NextGen (13.95 vs. 9.82) and since he changed up his program at NextGen, he turned a what I think was supposed to be a solo 3Lz x (6.49 in the second half) into a 1Lz x (0.37) instead of a 3Lz x. That is a 17 point TES difference. As you can see, those are 3 major errors and the judging rules say that when there are 2 or more major interruptions the PCS should be lower than the PCS of a clean program. However, the opposite happened, they went up by 3.5 points. I think if the Aqua Cup judging panel saw this program they would give it no higher than 113 points. So 68 + 113 would give him a combined score of 181, which is lower than David's underscored 184.

Having done this analysis, I think an objective argument could be made that the Junior Men's event judging was biased and not done based on merit of the programs being performed yesterday or today. I would include other Junior Men for comparison, but unfortunately no one else has competed both of their current programs at non-domestic competitions.

If you made it this far, thank you for reading. I usually don't like commenting my two cents, but this time I just had to share with you all this analysis, cause this result just doesn't make any logical sense. The math just ain't mathing

i think Grayson often gets the favour of Canadian judges.. I have no idea why.

For the low PCS of Bondar, it may have had to do with the relatively earlier starting order ? I mean, it's not supposed to happen that way, but it does.

 

[RatedPG]

Junior Girls - Next Gen (5 JGP spots)
With 155 as domestic benchmark

Thanks to our top two girls, I have hope for Canada in the next Olympic cycle
1 Lia Cho
She is ineligible to compete in JGP circuit. I hope they give her a spot at Cranberry, like last season. I love that she went for the 3A. I thought she would do it as her opening element. Love the two triple triples. Her SP is a masterpiece.
2 Victoria Barakhtina
Thank goodness for Victoria. I watched her skates again and I take it back. I think she is better than Uliana. If she can place top five at her two JGP events and score 170+, she may save Canada and place tenth at Junior Worlds if she improves a bit more. She should be given the two JGP spots without a doubt.

3 Ksenia Krouzkevitch
4 Camila Volkova
5 Reese Rose
6 Uxia Gonzalez-Abraldes
7 Hetty Shi
8 Hannah Quinn
9 Sandrine Blais
10 Mégane Vallières
11 Megan Woodley
12 Calissa Adlem
13 Lulu Lin
14 Gabrielle Jugnauth
15 Kaydee Kallay
16 Kaylee Sun
17 Aleksa Volkova
Let the rest of the girls duke it out at Cranberry. If one of them scores over 155, let them have a spot. Something tells me that Lulu and Megan might take two of these spots due to their SB scores from last season. I hope Ksenia defies the odds and is given a JGP spot, in the end.

With Lia and Victoria I’m starting to think we should be able to garner more JGP spots during next Olympic cycle.

 

[RatedPG]

Junior Dance - Next Gen (9 JGP spots)
With 130 as domestic benchmark

1 Layla Veillon / Alexander Brandys
I loved this team. Scott Moir was at the kiss n cry. I loved their free skate. Such a good team. I’m so glad I watched the dance. Hopefully, this team makes it to the JGP finals. Clearly they deserve both JGP spots.

2 Summer Homick / Nicholas Buelow
I hear they were already assigned a JGP spot. I loved the Pairs spiral element and Nicholas is cute
Clearly they get two JGP spots

3 Charlie Anderson / Cayden Dawson
I prefer the #2 team from looks. But, I actually preferred this team in term of their program, etc
Clearly deserve two JGP spots.


4 Auréa Cinçon-Debout / Earl Jesse Celestino
5 Victoria Carandiuc / Andrei Carandiuc
I think for the remaining three JGP spots, they should assign the above two teams to one JGP spot and then give the higher scorer, the second spot. I need to see heartthrob Andrei again.


6 Olympia Kalaganis / Émile Deveau
Alternatively, they could give the above two teams just one JGP spot, as well as this team

7 Emilie Proulx / Corentin Cinçon-Debout
8 Annabelle Théroux / Rafael Gossard
9 Christina Podgornei / Thierry Caron

With the top team, I feel rest assured we have one solid Junior team to place in the top ten at Junior Worlds this season.

 

[RatedPG]

Junior Pairs - Next Gen (12 JGP spots)
With domestic benchmark at 130

1 Ava Kemp / Yohnatan Elizarov
This was the best performance of the night for me!! Yes. Even better than Lia. They l went for 3Lz and 3Lo throw jumps. They go for two individual triple jumps. Just wow!! This team should make it to JGP finals. Two clearly earned JGP spots. Also, Yohnathan’s swagger makes him so hot

2 Jazmine Desrochers / Kieran Thrasher
I’m worried about this team. They seem stuck at the same level. Kieran is better than her. I think they do the no jump elements the best. They are the best looking combined pairs team ever and i do love how Kieran cares for Jazmine. Two clear JGP spots

3 Julia Quattrocchi / Etienne Lacasse
This team wowed me. Julia raised his level up. Two clear JGP spots

4 Martina Ariano Kent / Charly Laliberté Laurent
The most disappointing performance of the event was this team. They didn’t even surpass the benchmark. However, as the reigning Junior World medalists, they deserve the two JGP spots. They better pick the last two events.
I worry that Charly may leave Martina, if she can’t land harder single jumps.

5 Brianna Dion / Jacob Côté
6 Ava Cheung / Stephen Lee
7 Beau Callahan / Vladimir Furman
How do they split the remaining four spots? Hopefully, the above teams get one each with the best scorer receiving a second JGP event. Something tells me Skate Canada will just send two teams to the four Pairs events with none of the above teams getting anything. I will be mad if this is the case.

8 Jaslynn Wong / Nico Conforti
Ineligible

After this event, I’m confident with our Pairs teams. Especially, with out top Pairs team. I hope they get that Junior Worlds medal that alludes them.

 

[RatedPG]

Junior Boys - Next Gen (5 JGP spots)
With benchmark at 180

1 Grayson Long
He is Canada’s darling. I thought he deserved the win today. He earns one JGP spot.
2 Edward Vasii
Loved his passion. Also, I can’t believe his opening jump element was supposed to be a 4S. This guy has so much potential and deserves his JGP spot.

3 Anthony Paradis
He is so unique. I hate his custom though. But, boy does his ooze PCS.
The two falls were shocking to me. I would have had him in 4th place. Still, he deserves a JGP spot.

4 David Bondar
First in the free skate. He is quite talented. He deserves one of these JGP spots

I think they should give the last JGP spot, to the best scorer of the four above boys.

5 David Li
6 William Chan
There is a chance, the last JGP spot could go to William, if he lands a 3A and scores over 180, at another domestic event

7 Rui Qin
8 Ethan Luo
9 Jeffrey Chen
10 Parker Heiderich
11 David Howes
I just want to cry
12 Petro Chebotarov

Anyways, our boys are normally seen as the weakest discipline. However, this event garnered the most participants exceeding minimums with four of them. I have a feeling these four will push each other at Seniors in the next Olympic cycle. All we need is for one of Grayson, Eddie, David to master the 3A and a quad. Anthony needs to take the Jason Brown route. He really does need to learn the 3A.

 

[RatedPG]

Also, i will look for @saine post if they decide to post the Next Gen team building event, like last season. Usually takes place the day after free skate competition.

I have fun watching who interacts with who. Such a fun event and hoping they love stream this event so I can watch in detail tmrw night.

 

[Jumping_Bean]

Guess that is the hotel that is being used for the athletes, coaches and judges at Nationals. Probably now as well.

My data oriented impressions of the NextGen competition:
- Can't say much about ice dance cause it is very subjective, but the overall rank looked about right considering the complexity, speed and flow of the dances
- Pairs was very fair in the free program, Kemp/Elizarov just look very good right now compared to everyone else and the points reflect that. I had some questions about the short program but the free program compensated that.
- Women was a little more interesting in terms of being chaotic and unpredictable, some on here might argue the "immigrants" were underscored in the PCS, but they skated technically with no passion or soul. One might wonder if they even like skating. Those girls that have international experience (e.g. Reese Rose), did get comparable PCS here vs. international, so there was no blatant favouritism reflected in the Women's PCS.
- Men.......some of those scores in both the short and free were questionable. Take for example Grayson Long and David Bondar because they already competed this season with the same programs (with non-Canadian judges to remove domestic bias). I'll compare David's Lake Placid scores to NextGen and Grayson's Aqua Cup scores to NextGen (data can be found on skatingscores.com).
David Bondar
Short Program at Lake Placid:
Total: 75.18 (remove the 1 point bonus for triple triple combo and that's 74.18)
TES: 42.34 (41.34 without the bonus point for triple triple)
PCS: 32.84
Short Program at NextGen:
Total: 58.49
TES: 28.83
PCS: 29.66
There is video of both performances, only noticeable difference was the fall on the Lutz that should have been a combo. He got 3.54 points (factoring in the fall deduction its 2.54) at NextGen and 12.90 (11.90 deduction the 1 point bonus), so that's a difference of about 9.5 points. Spins looked similar to the ones at Lake Placid that got level 4, and so did the footwork that got level 3, so the level calls are inconsistent. PCS should be a bit lower in NextGen considering he had a major error, but lowering them by more than 3 points is interesting. My impression is that David would have gotten between 62-64 points for his short program with the Lake Placid judges.
Free Program at Lake Placid:
Total: 127.97 (125.97 removing the two points for triple triple combo)
TES: 62.53 (60.53 removing the two points for the triple triple combo)
PCS: 66.44 (comparable to JGP Wuxi PCS for a different LP)
Free Program at NextGen:
Total: 125.68
TES: 66.80
PCS: 57.88
Also video performance of both programs so you can compare yourself to see how objective I am being. Noticeable differences was in Lake Placid the 4T was << vs. < at NextGen (2.10 vs. 3.80), Lake Placid had a 1Lz+3T vs. 3Lz+3T< in NextGen (4.96 vs. 8.71) and an invalid spin in Lake Placid (0.00 vs. 3.15). So that is about 6.5 points more he should be getting at NextGen, but because the first axel combo was not as nice at NextGen and neither was the 3F+2A+2A, but 3S was better at NextGen so I'll lower it down to 5 points in TES more he should be getting at NextGen compared to Lake Placid. And that is reflected in the TES scores of both competitions. So naturally, because David has a higher TES and 2 less major errors in NextGen, one would think he would get a comparable PCS score (if not higher) at NextGen as he did in Lake Placid and YET.....he got over 8 points less at NextGen. Make it make sense. I just compared the programs and he looks more tired and had less connection with the music at Lake Placid. So shouldn't the PCS reflect that? If the Lake Placid judges gave him a score today, it would be about 9-11 points more (136 roughly). His combined score would be 196-198. I think someone mentioned David not looking happy in the Kiss and Cry with his performance, I think its more logical to say that was a reaction to his score, most probably the PCS. And from an objective standpoint he is valid for that because it doesn't feel like they gave him a score based on merit. Honestly, his free program was way above everyone else today. Only quad attempt, and 2 landed triple axels of the competition, and the rest of his triple jumps were landed too with no pops.

Now onto Grayson, there is no video of Aqua Cup so I can't compare the PCS or the levels of the spins or footwork, but I know that historically the Japanese are the least biased federation and culturally they value honour so are most likely to judge everyone based on their merit. Therefore, I believe the Japanese have more accurate scores. So without further ado....
Grayson Long
Short Program at Aqua Cup:
Total: 70.62 (71.62 with Canadian 3A bonus)
TES: 38.48 (39.48 with Canadian 3A bonus)
PCS: 32.14
Short Program at NextGen:
Total: 71.98
TES: 35.59
PCS: 35.39
Notable differences between programs is the triple triple combo. In Aqua Cup he did it and got 10.49, at NextGen he did 2Lz+3T which was worth 6.72 (about 4 points less). PCS is about 3 points higher at NextGen where the double triple combo was made, so I think the PCS score at NextGen was a tad inflated. If the Japanese judged this short program, they'd give it no higher than 68 (adding the 1 point 3A bonus).
Free Program at Aqua Cup:
Total: 125.42 (126.42 with Canadian 3A bonus)
TES: 63.24 (64.24 with Canadian 3A bonus)
PCS: 62.18
Free Program at NextGen:
Total: 123.03
TES: 56.27
PCS: 65.76
Notable differences in tech content was the 3Aq+3T at Aqua Cup vs 1A+2T at NextGen (9.27 vs. 2.40), the 3Lz+2A+2A at Aqua Cup vs the 2Lz+2A+2A at NextGen (13.95 vs. 9.82) and since he changed up his program at NextGen, he turned a what I think was supposed to be a solo 3Lz x (6.49 in the second half) into a 1Lz x (0.37) instead of a 3Lz x. That is a 17 point TES difference. As you can see, those are 3 major errors and the judging rules say that when there are 2 or more major interruptions the PCS should be lower than the PCS of a clean program. However, the opposite happened, they went up by 3.5 points. I think if the Aqua Cup judging panel saw this program they would give it no higher than 113 points. So 68 + 113 would give him a combined score of 181, which is lower than David's underscored 184.

Having done this analysis, I think an objective argument could be made that the Junior Men's event judging was biased and not done based on merit of the programs being performed yesterday or today. I would include other Junior Men for comparison, but unfortunately no one else has competed both of their current programs at non-domestic competitions.

If you made it this far, thank you for reading. I usually don't like commenting my two cents, but this time I just had to share with you all this analysis, cause this result just doesn't make any logical sense. The math just ain't mathing

Just as Canadian judges are not the objective authority, neither are the judges at Lake Placid Champs or Aqua Cup. Both of these competitions were judged by domestic judges raised within the Japanese and American systems, respectively. American judges are used to a variety of skaters, but tend to be quite generous, sometimes unfairly so, while Japanese judges tend to be quite strict, again, sometimes unfairly so.

David Bondar's LPFSC PCS are higher than his highest international PCS, which might be warranted in the Short but not in the Free, and his NextGen PCS are in line with his NextGen PCS from last season. On the other hand, Grayson's PCS at NextGen are on par with his highest internationally in the Short, which again, might be warranted, and on par with his 2nd highest PCS in the Free, which I think is not warranted.

Realistically, David B was probably a little overscored at LPFSC and a little underscored at NextGen, while Grayson was a little overscored at NextGen and a little underscored at Aqua Cup (especially in the Short, as he was competing against Rio).

 

[FlossieH]

When considering assignments, we shouldn’t discount providing opportunities to young promising skaters / teams. Let’s not turn back any spots for sure Think “development” not just medals or top 6 placements

Canada only has five spots for each singles discipline in the JGP. I think those need to go to the best skaters (who would all benefit from increasing their international experience in preparation for moving up to seniors) and other promising skaters should be sent out to other events. It is also important to be mindful that being sent out to a higher profile event such as a JGP before they are ready can be damaging for some skaters. Some will rise to the opportunity and gain from the experience even if they don't do particularly well compared to other competitors, but some can be crushed by it. We had a British skater a few years ago who was sent out to a JGP when she was new to juniors, had a bad skate, and then quit skating afterwards because the experience left her feeling so inadequate. Hopefully there is enough understanding of the skaters involved for Skate Canada to make wise decisions about how skaters who are not really ready might react to a JGP experience.

 

[4everchan]

Canada only has five spots for each singles discipline in the JGP. I think those need to go to the best skaters (who would all benefit from increasing their international experience in preparation for moving up to seniors) and other promising skaters should be sent out to other events. It is also important to be mindful that being sent out to a higher profile event such as a JGP before they are ready can be damaging for some skaters. Some will rise to the opportunity and gain from the experience even if they don't do particularly well compared to other competitors, but some can be crushed by it. We had a British skater a few years ago who was sent out to a JGP when she was new to juniors, had a bad skate, and then quit skating afterwards because the experience left her feeling so inadequate. Hopefully there is enough understanding of the skaters involved for Skate Canada to make wise decisions about how skaters who are not really ready might react to a JGP experience.

This is a good point. On top of that, Skate Canada does have a tendency to be quite protective of younger athletes. The biggest example of that is not sending Cynthia Phaneuf to senior worlds when, at a very young age, she won Canadian nationals. She was definitely not ready and it showed when she did participate in bigger international competitions like junior worlds. Unfortunately, she then grew and had a bunch of injuries and never reached the results she may have reached when she was younger. This is no longer a problem with the new age rules which I appreciate. A skater will never be able to think " what if they had sent me when I was a very young girl... " but yeah.... Skate Canada is very protective.

The one skater I would protect here is Beau. She's a star in the making but she perhaps wants it too much too soon. She has a brand new partner very fresh to pairs and they need more time before competing. I have seen her being upset when she skated singles last year... and now very upset after the LP at next gen. To me, that raises a flag that expectations and results cannot yet be matched so I'd be protective here. However, I would send these two to smaller junior events for sure. I believe in this team and I think they just need a bit more time.

Let's not forget that JGP season is super early but there are other junior events all year long.

Having less spots this year in all disciplines but pairs makes it perhaps simpler.

I just hope that Skate Canada will not throw away many spots and use the ones the skaters worked very very hard to gain for the country.

 

[Cutting the ice]

Wow - amazing analyses from everybody. Thank you for all your insights.

I should have added to my comment that we shouldn't turn back spots (ever).

With women, this is particularly true. I have no problem with Victoria getting the first spot and, depending on placement - (top 4 or 5?) - perhaps getting a second. I think of Sandrine (who has the goods but didn't show it in the free) should get a JGP. Not sure about Reese though. I love Reese's short and internationally she has done well with it. But I don't think I have ever seen her land a triple lutz and her flip is inconsistent - so conflicted about giving her an assignment until she shows she has a stable lutz. Ksenia - whom is one of my favourites and has so much potential IMO, doesnt yet have the triple loop but needs to be sent out internationally once she demonstrates she has that jump (although landing a double loop in the short is acceptable). Not worried about the triple-triple. I wouldn't object to her getting a JGP. Camila is another skater that didn't have a great free but appears to have the "goods" and could get a JGP placement. Uxia and Hannah both have star potential and should get international opportunities - just not JGP. Megan (coming back from injury) and Lulu (not sure her current status other than a giant switch in coaching) need to show they are back on track IMO before getting a JGP but in the past both have done well. Hetty - not sure where she is at but hope she gets her jumps back. But in all these cases, I trust the Skate Canada knows their status and what they are capable of this autumn - but let's not turn back our spots. Also - where is Kara?

WRT men, I agree with the top 4. I like the competition between David B and Grayson. They are definitely different types of cookies but both good (not sure Grayson is Canada's darling though). Anthony - please change your free skate costume, it is distracting although I recognize the homage to Paul P. But lots of opportunity to be different without being distracting. Let the skating speak for itself. I expect Edward to really improve this season. I would give David Li the 5th spot (unless one of the 4 medals and then give it to them). David has grown but did lots better yesterday than a month ago in BC and he is our national bronze medalist.

WRT dance, I agree - top three for 2 and next 3 for 1. I think some of the mess we saw in the rhythm was early season roughness. My only wish is that Alexander Brandys would get sleeves for his rhythm dance costume. Very excited about Charlie Anderson / Cayden Dawson - so much improvement in the past year. They are so watchable! And looking forward to seeing Summer and Nicholas get more positive attention from the judges. The Carundiac siblings impressed me as well in the free. They look smoother and faster than last year and deserve a spot for sure. I am worried about growth potential for Aurea and Jesse though. It maybe the similarity in size or something else.

WRT pairs, I agree - top 4 for 2. Let us hope that Martina gets better (assuming she has been injured) - her double axel was good before. They didn't get much training last year but seemed to come together when it really mattered at Junior Worlds. But not sure why they seem so distant from each other. Doesn't bode well. Jasmine and Keiran could probably medal with double throws and jumps based on the strength of the rest of their programme, but I recall an interview with them last year that implied they are landing them well in practice. Fingers crossed for them. At least one spot to the next 3 with the 4th spot determined by performance if warranted. I think the level of competition in JGP pairs isn't as intense at other disciplines. It would be good experience for those teams to see what international teams are doing. But of course have realistic expectations. Also, lots of junior international ISU events don't have a pairs category so opportunities are limited for international experience even if Skate Canada would send them.

Now, let the "games" begin. Best of luck to our juniors.

 

[saine]

David Bondar's LPFSC PCS are higher than his highest international PCS, which might be warranted in the Short but not in the Free, and his NextGen PCS are in line with his NextGen PCS from last season.

With LPFSC, his 2024 PCS from there was more in line with what he got at 2024 NextGen (26.01/58.27 at LPFSC). So last year the American judges were in line with the Canadian judges, but not this year.

I'm expecting most of the men here to compete at Cranberry Cup, so that should be an interesting point of comparison with international judges.

 

[saine]

I would give David Li the 5th spot (unless one of the 4 medals and then give it to them). David has grown but did lots better yesterday than a month ago in BC and he is our national bronze medalist.

I think with the 5th spot, they may choose William Chan over David Li if they continue to have similar scores. Li is in his last year of eligibility while Chan has more years of eligibility left, and that's a factor in how they look at the scores.

 

[SubRosa]

Grayson gives me Roman 2.0 vibes. (Can my poor old heart withstand this?)

Agree with you about Beau, @4everchan. I hope to see some of the lower ranked Canadian junior pairs get another outing at John Nicks.

 

[RatedPG]

I just went to the livestream and realized I missed the team competition

It ended with the announcement of the results and they all chanted Eddie’s birthday…. Damn it! I wish I checked the live stream an hour earlier

I wonder if they will post it as an archive

 

[saine]

Team competition for @RatedPG - https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x9n9q5o

 

[RatedPG]

Team competition for @RatedPG - https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x9n9q5o

Watching now. As I eat my lunch!!
Perfect!! I’m so happy and will be extremely happy over the next hour

 

[Violet Sky]

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Anthony Paradis, SP, Next Gen 2025