Senior Ladies LP | Page 24 | Golden Skate

Senior Ladies LP

Red Dog said:
I wonder if Zhang would be a good alternative to Alyssa, but I think it's actually a toss-up. They had similar results in the GP. Zhang might be considered the "safe" choice, and Czisny might be the "reach" choice.
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Well, all three girls go in front of the international judges next week at 4CC. I've been wondering what would happen if Caroline placed better than Rachael and Alissa. Would the USFSA be embarrassed by Team USA getting whipped by a scrub? :eek:
 
PolymerBob said:
Well, all three girls go in front of the international judges next week at 4CC. I've been wondering what would happen if Caroline placed better than Rachael and Alissa. Would the USFSA be embarrassed by Team USA getting whipped by a scrub? :eek:
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Strange as it seems, no, I don;'t think they would be embarrassed at all.

If Caroline does great at Four C's I think everyone will just say, "yay, Caroline won Four C's. Too bad she didn't skate quite that well at Nationals, but anyway, go Alissa and Rachael at Worlds!"
 
why would it be an embarassment that the USFSA has such a 'deep field' in ladies that they leap frog on each other to win? ;)
 
Mathman said:
If Caroline does great at Four C's I think everyone will just say, "yay, Caroline won Four C's. Too bad she didn't skate quite that well at Nationals, but anyway, go Alissa and Rachael at Worlds!"
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And then if Alissa and Rachael don't do well at Worlds, everyone will be saying "Hmm I wonder what might have happened if Caroline had gone!" :biggrin:

The way I see it, there's no clear front runner in the US right now. This might sound ironic, but because Caroline's problems are the worst, she's in the best position to step up. Because really, give or take a little, all the US ladies are getting similar scores right now. If Caroline can get the same scores as everyone else with that mule kick, the lack of speed, weak basic skating skills, and occasional URs, think of what she might get if she fixed any one of those problems. That's not to say the other girls are perfect, but I think it can be agreed that Caroline's problems are the wost, almost like a combo of everyone else's issues.
 
Blades of Passion said:
Whoa. Back to the skating...

I've seen all the LPs now and would rank them as:

1. Wagner
2. Zhang
3. Flatt
4. Czisny
5. Nagasu
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My impression, when I saw the programs on tv, was that Rachael won the long program. She was clean and seemed to hit all her jumps (actually "only" six). I certainly didn't think Wagner should have won--she had at least one mistake as I recall, though her program was a huge improvement on her short. But I think she is lacking in artistry--the same criticism that is leveled at Rachael. So all things being equal, I think Rachael should have won. And I don't get how Czisny was only one point behind Rachael. As for the rest, I don't remember their programs well enough to rank them.
 
Wagner's a better spinner than Flat - faster and good positions. Overall, she did much better in the non-jump elements. Compare the GOE:

Wagner:
FSSp4 3.00 0.71 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 3.71
CoSp4 3.00 0.57 1 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 3.57
SpSq4 3.40 1.14 1 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 4.54
SlSt3 3.30 0.50 1 2 0 1 0 1 1 2 1 3.80
FCCoSp4 3.50 0.29 0 0 0 -1 1 1 1 1 1 3.79

Ashley had a base value of 16.2 and earned over 3 points in grade of execution. Overall, she got 19.41 for this elements.

Flatt:
FCSp4 3.20 0.07 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 3.27
SpSq4 3.40 0.29 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 3.69
CCSp4 3.20 -0.04 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3.16
SlSt3 3.30 -0.06 1 -1 -1 1 0 1 0 -1 0 3.24
CCoSp4 3.50 0.57 1 0 2 2 1 0 2 1 1 4.07

Rachel had a base value of 16.6 and wound up with 17.43 (less than 1 point in GOE). That's a significant difference. Her jumps, while landed cleanly and rotated (aside from the 3+3) don't usually have a lot of height, distance or flow, so don't garner a lot of GOE to make up a huge difference. Additionally, she got overall -GOE on all 3 of her combinations. Ashley only got -GOE on her 3Lz and the 3T+2T+2Lo.

Ashley's also faster. She might be a bit sloppy, but she brings dynamism to her performance, which can't be said about Rachael. That might be how the judges saw it.
 
Mathman said:
Strange as it seems, no, I don;'t think they would be embarrassed at all.

If Caroline does great at Four C's I think everyone will just say, "yay, Caroline won Four C's. Too bad she didn't skate quite that well at Nationals, but anyway, go Alissa and Rachael at Worlds!"
Click to expand...

in fact, Caroline Zhang is my front runner for 4CC title :biggrin: :unsure:
 
I posted this list on Sashafans and I think it's relevant: average 08/09 season ISU scores for top ladies competitors going to Worlds:

1. Yu-Na 190.52
2. Mao 182.42
3. Joannie 178.66
* Akiko 169.16
* Yukari 167.11
4. Miki 165.85
5. Carolina 163.83
6. Fumie 162.95
7. Rachael 160.90
8. Laura L. 157.36
9. Alissa 154.48
10. Sarah M. 147.64

Japan can only send 3, so Akiko and Yukari get asterisks. (If they somehow go, they're replacing someone else anyway.)

Looking at the numbers, I don't see that it's so hopeless for 3 spots. I'll give them each captions:

1. Yu-Na - Untouchable
2. Mao - Untouchable
3. Joannie - Notoriously inconsistent, but strong this season
4. Miki - Prone to error, underscoring and injury but we PROBABLY won't top her
5. Carolina - Inconsistent, though benefitting from inflated PCS
6. Fumie - Inconsistent, 28 yo, almost lucky to be there (I love Fumie but I'm only talking about her threat-level right now)
7. Rachael - Totally consistent, but also not much chance of movement in either direction
8. Laura L. - Inconsistent to the point of meltdown
9. Alissa - Inconsistent but may have found enough consistency to stand up
10. Sarah M. - Generally pretty decent but really a lot worse this season

So all we have to do is beat Laura Lepisto (pretty easy) and ONE other girl, of the 4 potentially inconsistent girls that could fall hard. Rachael is the dependable workhorse. Obviously this all rides on Alissa conquering her demons, but it seems she finally is doing it. If she does, I'd say we will get the 13 points. Only Yu-Na and Mao are out of reach. Everyone else has shown the tendency to drop like a stone on more than one occasion. Am I being naive?

Also -- think about the implications of the US not sending 3 girls to the Olympics!! Um... uh.... there aren't any. Not in terms of medals anyway. The US could send ALL 22? ladies from Nationals, along with Kimmie and Emily, and what would it matter?? Does anyone actually believe the Olympic podium WON'T be Yu-Na, Mao, and either another Japanese skater or possibly Carolina? (The only way the US will podium at the Olympics is if Sasha Cohen not only comes back, but comes back strong and defies all the odds and all of her detractors. That's another debate entirely...)

So, if we CANNOT medal at the Olympics, why does it matter whether we send our 3rd best skater there in a hopeless attempt to do so?
 
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^^^^^ Very good points. But it all assumes that no U.S. lady steps up to the plate. There is still over a year until the Olympics, and I think one of our ladies WILL step up. I have my theory as to which one, but that's another thread. :biggrin:
 
Particle Man said:
Also -- think about the implications of the US not sending 3 girls to the Olympics!! Um... uh.... there aren't any. Not in terms of medals anyway. The US could send ALL 22? ladies from Nationals, along with Kimmie and Emily, and what would it matter?? Does anyone actually believe the Olympic podium WON'T be Yu-Na, Mao, and either another Japanese skater or possibly Carolina? (The only way the US will podium at the Olympics is if Sasha Cohen not only comes back, but comes back strong and defies all the odds and all of her detractors. That's another debate entirely...)

So, if we CANNOT medal at the Olympics, why does it matter whether we send our 3rd best skater there in a hopeless attempt to do so?
Click to expand...

Actually, it's been the unexpected at the last several Olympics in ladies and the winner hasn't won a World medal until the preceeding year or two since 1988 (Yamaguchi won her first World medal in 1991, Baiul in 1993, Lipinski in 1997, Hughes in 2001, and Shizuka in 2004). So, I'd say whoever the newcomer to the podium this year is will be the ladies champ in Vancouver...
 
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