Caroline Zhang - Is She an Oly Contender?

[R.D.]

But they both would have excelled under ordinal judging, too.

Definitely. But in that system you controlled your own destiny in BOTH rounds. in Cop if you ace the short, you can sleep through the long and still win.

Disclaimer: I'm not asking we return to the old system. Just pointing out pros and cons here.

 

[Kimmie Fan]

Best post in the thread. ITA.

I myself made the mistake of being a vocal part of the "Give Irina the Gold already and don't even bother to hold the competition" crowd. Now, it's easy to do the same for Yu Na. Give her the gold already, she's got no competition, etc.

But there's a major difference this time around. Slutskaya wasn't getting 15-20 point leads in the SHORT program. Her strength was outperforming everyone by a mile in the FREESKATE. So, in this case, Yu Na seems extra invincible. But MM said it right...this is 2009. The Olympics happen in 2010. Completely different year. Completely different circumstances. The Skate Gods are listening to/reading every word said on the forums looking for a way to surprise the masses. Who'd have thought Mao Asada would finish OFF THE PODIUM at WORLDS??

There is always a first time...and what irony it would be if Yuna semi-bombs her SP at the olympics?
Instead of the 15 point lead, what if she only had 3 point lead?
All of sudden, she won't be so automatic

 

[Particle Man]

I think you've got the time of year wrong in your stroll down memory lane.

No, not really. I was outlining why '06 (under CoP) wasn't really a surprise in the same way that '02 and '98 were under 6.0. My point, which I probably buried as usual, was that CoP has less surprises. The point advantage Yun-a has is too hard to overcome. If people want to say it's in the "quality" of her skating that's fine, that's as good an explanation as any. But all Yun-a has to do is what she's been doing, and even if a Tara or Sarah comes out (for instance, say it's Caroline) and has the skate of her life, lands 7 triples and doesn't fall -- well then you have edge/UR calls probable, and the underlying point deficit, and I just don't see the upset happening. What if you picked apart all of the edges and URs for the finishers in '02 and '98? I can't be totally sure but I'd say neither Tara nor Sarah would have won.

Similarly, I don't see anyone else building the points to match Yun-a. Not even Mao at this point. It isn't Fall/Winter 2009 -- and? Yun-a has been steadily building, and is stratospheric at the moment. She'd have to have a major calamity for next season to even be interesting...

 

[PolymerBob]

Zhang has a lot of potential, but skating 4 minutes to Ave Maria doesn't help her, considering how slow she is.

Maybe next year she will come with a more interesting LP.

I just read Miki Ando's journal.
She said Caroline should skate faster, fix her mule kick .................

........ and get rid of that damn Ave Maria program.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

My apologies if I'm restating what has already been said - but I didn't have time to read the whole thread...

Here's my two cents:

1) based on the skating of US ladies, I am figuring on a US team that includes Caroline. She's got the talent and should have that fire to move up the ranks for 2010 nationals - I don't see her as a "what awesome potential" skater but as a "despite early set backs, she has shot up the ranks" skater.

2) I'm a Kwan fan, so I understand that when it comes to the olympics, you simply don't know what's gonna happen when the front runners hit the ice with the pressure to win & be perfect vs. some upstart teenybopper whose just having a grand ol' time - hits the ice, has the skate of their life and then wins...

I look to Worlds results to identify the best skater and the Olympics to be entertained...

 

[bekalc]

Yu-na is getting leads in the short program because she's outskating every technically/PCS wise.

BUT, if the other girls step up their game in the short program, Yu-na's 15 point lead will vanish. If Asada can skate a short like she did at WTT, if Miki can get her 3/3 ratified, and Joannie can get a 3/3, Yu-na won't have such a lead anymore.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Let's face it, the unexpected happens more than one imagines. After failing to make the GPF, failing to make the gold at US Nats, then coming from behind at the Worlds and World Team win both. That's Evan Lysacek.

Is he still unexpected to win the Olys?

Caroline is also unexpected to win the Olys? We'll see. Almost a whole year of practice to go after that Jewel of Figure Skating.

 

[Okami]

Who'd have thought Mao Asada would finish OFF THE PODIUM at WORLDS??

Anybody who have followed the news about her? It wasn't the first time she struggled - ever since she started working on fixing her jumping technique her jumps became quite unstable. She has lost to Joannie twice before Worlds, and Miki has already proved that she can challenge the top girls if she's in top form (she would probably have won the LP if it wasn't for the downgraded 3L).

Definitely. But in that system you controlled your own destiny in BOTH rounds. in Cop if you ace the short, you can sleep through the long and still win.

Not always - Worlds 2007 (ladies discipline) come to mind. There were also many cases where the skaters messed up the short and rallied the long to win or at least make the podium. I think what the CoP did was to enable the movement in the placements. You can fall all over the place in the SP - but hey, a 4-3-3 + a full set of triples in the long and you can totally make up for the points lost!

 

[antmanb]

I think people should expect the unexpected.

There seems to be less grousing about the men and i think there are two reasons for that, the first is that the men at this stage are all grouping themselves together, there isn't a single one of them who really is out in front, no-one in particular is looking super consistent and any one of about 6 skaters could find themselves in the lead after the SP and that doesn't include injured guys like Takahashi, returning guys like Pluschenko (or dare we hope Lambiel?) or even Weir depending on how his season starts next year - it's going to be great (as the mens competition generally has been!). Secondly the ladies seems to have many obsessive fans who are either upset that their favourite is not "the favourtie" going into the Olympic season, or trying to skew debates to nationality.

I think the explanations are very clear. Yuna skated a fanstastic short program (and the SP tends to be her strong point) that no-one could come close to matching. Why? Jumps, jumps and jumps again. Ando does not complete the rotations on her triple loop, Mao has struggled with her 3/3 and her lutz all season, Joannie has not landed a 3/3 in the SP. That is simply all there is to it. Yuna gets deservedly high PCS, so when the jumps don't work for the others there is no way for them to catch her up because of the PCS. What do the others need to do? Land the jumps! If Mao does go for a 3A combo strategy with solo 3F she will go a long way to closing and probably surpassing the gap. Imaghine if she gets a 3A/3T as her combo? Miki is the same - get working on the 3T on the back of the 3Lz to get credit for the 3/3.

Ant

 

[Mathman]

I just read Miki Ando's journal.
She said Caroline should skate faster, fix her mule kick ...

... and get rid of that damn Ave Maria program.

I think Caroline just wrote in her journal that she hopes Miki keeps trying the quad.

 

[gocaroline]

At this point Zhang/Flatt have to be the frontrunners for the team... At the very least both girls have to have more respect from the USFSA judges now....

:agree:

Flatt/Zhang both have not only the potential (everyone has the potential if they are already the top USA ladies at senior level), but also the good tracking record to bank on.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

...or (especially in the case of Buttle) rotate four times and fall on their butt and get credit for a quad.

Girl. Don't even get me started on Buttle's "quad"... :disapp:

 

[ks777]

I just read Miki Ando's journal.
She said Caroline should skate faster, fix her mule kick .................

........ and get rid of that damn Ave Maria program.

Oh, I didn't know you can read Miki's journal, where is it?

 

[LeCygne]

Oh, I didn't know you can read Miki's journal, where is it?

I think he was being sarcastic/funny, haha.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Uh, no. Caroline cannot do a real lutz like Yu-Na, and the idea that she's working on a 3A is a joke, because the axel is her worst jump ever. She approaches that jump almost as if she's afraid of it - as Dick Button would say, "there's no jump in that jump."

And sure, Caroline can land more jumps and do the sal and loop as compared to Yu-Na and Mao, but CoP favours quality over quantity.

There is no way Caroline could land a triple axel. I think she was working on one a few years ago, and that is what messed up the double for her. Her double axel was not that timid-looking and slow when she was a junior. Before her first senior season she was reportedly working on triple axels. my guess is that she had a really bad fall and now is scared of all axel type jumps.

 

[ks777]

Caroline and Mira have the worst 2axel at this level.

 

[Andalusia]

Her double axel was not that timid-looking and slow when she was a junior.

I've noticed. It was still small then, but at least it looked easy for her. Have you actually witnessed Caroline practicing triple axels when she was a junior? It would be a real shame if having had a bad fall when practicing them is now throwing her off the 2A. She should just put it out of her mind, forget about trying 3As, and concentrate on putting more 'jump' into her 2As.

I've wondered if Caroline's worst jump is the 2A because that's a jump that really requires you to, well, jump. You can't rely on mule-kicks or use of wild arms to do an axel; you really have to lift up into the air, jump, and cover distance.

 

[LeCygne]

I've wondered if Caroline's worst jump is the 2A because that's a jump that really requires you to, well, jump. You can't rely on mule-kicks or use of wild arms to do an axel; you really have to lift up into the air, jump, and cover distance.

That's probably a more logical explanation. I have heard her mention somewhere that she tried a few triple axels, but it was just for fun; I don't think it was anything serious. She said after last season that she was mainly concentrating on 3-3's (perhaps adding another one in her LP) and not the triple axel.

 

[fairly4]

It seems to me that , some people may be afraid the Caroline Zhang just might pull it off if she skates clean at the Olympics and the top Contenders

Mao, Yu-na, Joannie, Carolina Kostner and Miki Ando makes mistakes.

I don't doubt that if the above mention people skate basically a clean skate they will get the medal, but a fall or two /pop jumps the doors open up.
IT comes across to me people are more afraid of that.
Can she, maybe, will she-we have to wait and see if she goes first,
YEs, Alexe Gilles, fans, Mirais fans, Rachel fans , Ashley Wagner fans,
Caroline Can do it, just as well as Alex Mirai and Rachel and Ashley, but like Caroline who has to skate clean so do they because Mao and Yu-na are ahead of the pack . Joannie is Canadian and will nave natual bumped up scores becaue of it being held there.

Yes, there are other contendors like Laura Lepisto, Sarah Meier and other. Kimberly Meissner,


I

 

[PolymerBob]

Caroline and Mira have the worst 2axel at this level.

Actually, since Caroline started doing her pearl spin, I have seen other skaters trying to copy it. Would like to guess who did the second best pearl spin I have ever seen? Yu-Na? No. Mao? No. Mirai? No.

That's right .............. Mira !!!!