2009-10 ISU Grand Prix selection guidelines

[Sylvia]

May 30th is a Saturday. I don't know if the ISU will publish the finalized full slate of GP entries right away (the same day or on Sunday) or if they will make us wait until Monday, June 1st (or later that week).

ETA: Last year the ISU published the full slate of GP entries on their site on June 14th but I can't remember if it was the same day as the selection meeting or the day after?

 

[chuckm]

How about Emily Hughes? I'm guessing she is not guaranteed a GP?

Emily is #72 on the ISU Ranking list and #82 on the Seasons Best list. She has no guarantees, and because she is not in the top 75 on the Seasons Best list, she is not even qualified to receive a GP invitation. The only way she could compete in the GP was if she got a host pick to Skate America, and I don't think that is within the realm of possibility, given that she's skipped the last two Nationals and her performance at TEB 2008 was dreadful.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Emily is #72 on the ISU Ranking list and #82 on the Seasons Best list. She has no guarantees, and because she is not in the top 75 on the Seasons Best list, she is not even qualified to receive a GP invitation. The only way she could compete in the GP was if she got a host pick to Skate America, and I don't think that is within the realm of possibility, given that she's skipped the last two Nationals and her performance at TEB 2008 was dreadful.

When one thinks of the math involved in offering GP events to skaters., one has to think about spaces available for all eligible.

of the 72 slots, the podium and 4-6 skaters will get 12 of them; the addiional skaters for the host countries will get 6 of them. Of the 54 remaining slots, how many are left at the top 75 list? and will they all make it?
Just thinking of Emile's chances.

 

[chuckm]

When one thinks of the math involved in offering GP events to skaters., one has to think about spaces available for all eligible.

of the 72 slots, the podium and 4-6 skaters will get 12 of them; the addiional skaters for the host countries will get 6 of them. Of the 54 remaining slots, how many are left at the top 75 list? and will they all make it?
Just thinking of Emile's chances.

Add also the 6 skaters who finished 7th-12th at Worlds who get two events each, which drops the remaining slots to 42.

There are certainly enough skaters in the top 75 on the SB list to fill those slots. Nearly all the skaters in the top 12 at Worlds and in the top 24 on the ISU Ranking list are also in the top 24 on the SB list. So that means there are almost 50 candidates for invitations, and the best of those will receive two invitations.

In any case, the ISU rules do not permit skaters who aren't in the top 75 on the SB list to get invitations, so Emily CANNOT receive an invitation from any of the other federations. Her only chance is to get a US host pick, and that is virtually impossible.

 

[visaliakid]

Grand Prix assignments announcement has generally come 3 to 4 days after the conclusion of the annual ISU Grand Prix Selection conference. That being the case, look for the Grand Prix event lineups to be released around June 3 or 4.

Regarding a possible Kwan invite.... today was the final day she had to accept an invitation or to let U.S.F.S. know she is interested in possibly skating in Lake Placid, but has not fully decided. In any case, U.S. Figure Skating has frequently provided their invite list of competitors with 1 or 2 TBD (To Be Determined) for U.S. skaters taking part. In reality Kwan may have several months more to make up her mind. This senario is most likely, if we do not see her name and a TBD listed instead.

I fully expect to see Cohen and one other name and a TBD listed.

 

[Mathman]

I fully expect to see Cohen and one other name and a TBD listed.

I hope not. Other skaters have earned their invitations. IMHO, they do not deserve to be shuffled off into limbo while we are waiting to see what Michelle and Sasha may or may not decide to do.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Add also the 6 skaters who finished 7th-12th at Worlds who get two events each, which drops the remaining slots to 42.

There are certainly enough skaters in the top 75 on the SB list to fill those slots. Nearly all the skaters in the top 12 at Worlds and in the top 24 on the ISU Ranking list are also in the top 24 on the SB list. So that means there are almost 50 candidates for invitations, and the best of those will receive two invitations.

In any case, the ISU rules do not permit skaters who aren't in the top 75 on the SB list to get invitations, so Emily CANNOT receive an invitation from any of the other federations. Her only chance is to get a US host pick, and that is virtually impossible.

WOW. I didn't know about the 7-12 skaters.
Is the top 75 a random number? So we can figure that there will be no more than 75 with invitations (some with 2 ; some with 1) Correct?

We then start the process of withdrawals and replacements.

 

[chuckm]

Remember also that there are guarantees given to:
Top 24 on ISU Ranking list:
12 of these were not in the top 12 at Worlds:
Zhang, Nakano, Sebestyen, Wagner, J. Helgesson, Poykio, Hecken, Suzuki, Reitmayerova, Nagasu, Meissner, Korpi

Top 24 on the Seasons Best list :
11 of these were not in the top 12 at Worlds:
Zhang, Nakano, Wagner, Poykio, Suzuki, Reitmeyerova, Phaneuf, Bereswill, Fujisawa (JGP), Maxwell (JGP), Murakami (JGP)

Medalist, JGP or JW:
5 of these were not in the top 12 at Worlds:
Zhang, Wagner, Bereswill, Gilles, Fujisawa (JGP)

Removing duplicates and the JGP skaters, these are the "guaranteed" skaters who were not in the top 12 at Worlds:
Zhang (on ISU, SB and Junior lists)
Nakano (on ISU and SB lists)
Wagner (on ISU, SB and Junior lists)
Poykio (on ISU and SB lists)
Suzuki (on ISU and SB lists)
Reitmayerova (on ISU and SB lists)
Bereswill (on SB and Junior lists)
Sebestyen
Nagasu
Meissner
Korpi
Phaneuf
Gilles
Hecken (may stay JGP)
Helgesson J. (may stay JGP)

Each host will have to select 2 or 3 skaters from the guaranteed list in addition to the host picks, 2 from the seeds, and 2 from the 7-12 list. Any remaining spots will go to the top 75 on the ISU Season's Best list (and probably many will go as second spots to "guaranteed" skaters on the list above).

 

[Mathman]

Is the top 75 a random number? So we can figure that there will be no more than 75 with invitations (some with 2 ; some with 1) Correct?

I don't know if it is random or if there is some reason why 75 was chosen (instead of 80, for instance), but the idea is that they want to make sure that all the spots are filled by skaters who have at least some sort of credential.

By the way, according to the rules, that "top 75" season best is firm. As ChuckM points out, Emily Hughes cannot be chosen for any Grand Prix event except as a host pick for Skate America.

Neither can Sasha.

It will be interesting to see if the ISU makes a mockery of its own rules and allows Sasha a second event.

To get a feel for how many skaters will actually receive invitations, at the announcement last year, in ladies, a total of 45 different skaters were listed. Of these 45, 27 had two events and 18 had one.

(Check: 27x2 + 18x1 = 72 slots in all. )

 

[chuckm]

From those statistics, it seems pretty plain that most of the skaters who aren't in the Worlds top 12 but are guaranteed one event, will probably get two.

What will be most interesting will be which ladies get the Skate America host picks. Although Alissa Czisny as the reigning US Champion would normally be offered SA, she is guaranteed two events due to her top 12 Worlds placement, so the USFS may not give her SA. One spot should go to Cohen, and one to Flatt. The third spot is the "mystery" pick.

 

[Mathman]

The skater whose assignment I am most interested in is Caroline Zhang. Several posters have put forward the view that USFS should "protect" her by not assigning her to Skate America where she will have to skate against Rachael and other U.S. ladies.

To me it seems more likely that Skate America would be an easier road for her than to take pot luck among the others, where she might face Asada plus one of the top three.

It may be true that if both Rachael and Caroline go to Skate America, this decreases the probability that both will make the finals. But by the same token it might increase the probability that one will.

 

[Particle Man]

Emily Hughes cannot be chosen for any Grand Prix event except as a host pick for Skate America. Neither can Sasha.

It will be interesting to see if the ISU makes a mockery of its own rules and allows Sasha a second event.

I don't see why it's a MOCKERY of their rules to use one's power of reason to be flexible given various situations. How many previous ladies Olympic medalists will be asking for GP slots this season?

 

[chuckm]

Because the rules AS WRITTEN seem to bar Cohen's entry into anything other than a host event:

Skaters/couples, seeded in any previous year (place 1 to 6 in the respective World Championships), and who due to injury or no fault of their own, were forced to sit out competitive season(s) could be considered for selection for up to 2 assignments, if they return to competitive skating.

One can hardly conclude that Cohen was injured, because she has skated in SOI for the past 3 seasons. She made repeated decisions to sign contracts with SOI; she chose to skate in that tour instead of in GP/World competitions. That would disqualify her from being considered for multiple events under the "forced" and "no fault of their own" wording.

BTW, the reigning Olympic champion Plushenko is said to be returning and may decide to compete at Rostelecom (formerly Cup of Russia). But he probably wouldn't want a second GP event anyway.

ETA: Anyway, even if the ISU is willing to break their own new rule, I doubt very much that Skate Canada, who is very judicious about selecting rosters to their own skaters' advantage, would select Sasha to compete against Rochette, Phaneuf and/or Lacoste. That would mean she'd have to go to one of the earlier events (TEB, CoR, CoC). If Sasha is set to begin training in June, she'd have just four months to get in shape for those earlier events, and I don't think that's nearly time enough after more than 3 years away from competitive skating.

 

[chuckm]

Caroline Zhang is pretty much certain to get two assignments, because she qualified for guarantees due to ISU Ranking (8th), SB rank (7th) and her JW silver medal. So there's no reason to choose her for Skate America; furthermore doing so might jeopardize the possibility of either Caroline or Rachael qualifying for the GPF.

I think USFS will pick Cohen and Flatt, and the third spot will be TBD. That gives USFS the flexibility to give the third spot to one of the US ladies who might not get two assignments right off the bat, or (a long shot) to Kwan who might decide to return.

 

[PolymerBob]

I think we can all agree the 2 ladies who have earned the most brownie points for the Olympic Team so far are Rachael and Caroline. If they tear a path of wanton destruction through the Grand Prix, they will have their tickets to Vancouver.

So where does that leave our come-back girls? Michelle and Sasha can't earn any points before Nationals because they only get one GP event each, and so will not make the final. Their only hope for the Olympic team is if Rachael and/or Caroline implode at the GP.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Caroline Zhang is pretty much certain to get two assignments, because she qualified for guarantees due to ISU Ranking (8th), SB rank (7th) and her JW silver medal. So there's no reason to choose her for Skate America; furthermore doing so might jeopardize the possibility of either Caroline or Rachael qualifying for the GPF.

I think USFS will pick Cohen and Flatt, and the third spot will be TBD. That gives USFS the flexibility to give the third spot to one of the US ladies who might not get two assignments right off the bat, or (a long shot) to Kwan who might decide to return.

--I think Caroline is too much the up-and-coming skater to be put into SA where Cohen and Flatt will most likely be along with whom I believe will be Kim , Nakano, and Kostner or Meier.

If the goal is to get to the Finals, placing top two is important. If it's just to get a dress rehearsal for US Nats, it's not important. I think Caroline would want to get to the Finals.

I still think the selection of a third spot should be for an up and coming skater and not a contender. However, it is a slippery sport.

 

[Mathman]

If the goal is to get to the Finals, placing top two is important.

That is my question, Joe. Why do you think it will be easier for Caroline to make the top two in, say, Cup of China or Cup of Russia, than in Skate America?

All those skaters that you mentioned -- Kim, Nakano, Kostner, Meier -- not to mention Asada -- are just as likely to show up at other events as at Skate America.

Their [Sasha's and Michelle's] only hope for the Olympic team is if Rachael and/or Caroline implode at the GP.

Sasha and Michelle's only hope to make the Olympic team is to get first or second at Nationals.

However, I do not expect either of them to be threre.

As for tearing a path of destruction through the Grand Prix, with reference to the Olympic selection process that pretty much means making the Grand Prix final and medalling. Just doing better on the Grand Prix circuit than the other American girls will not be enough to give them special consideration, IMHO.

 

[Mathman]

I don't see why it's a MOCKERY of their rules to use one's power of reason to be flexible given various situations.

Well, to me, that's the point. The reason you have rules is to give a standard that applies to all competitors. When you have a secret unpublished rule that says, "...except Sasha Cohen...," I do think that makes a mockery of the process.

How many previous ladies Olympic medalists will be asking for GP slots this season?

Only one.

 

[janetfan]

Well, to me, that's the point. The reason you have rules is to give a standard that applies to all competitors. When you have a secret unpublished rule that says, except Sasha Cohen

Yes, in theory you are right. But this is figure skating and "back room deals" have been the norm in this sport for decades.

 

[Alicja]

I really hope that Caroline and Rachael get assignments that give them a good shot at making the GPF. Rachael was so close this past season. I bet, hadn't she been chosen for SA, she would have made it. I also hope Caroline has a better start than she had last season. I'd love to see both at the GPF.