Who will try a quad and land it?

[Bennett]

My predictions!

Dai - Will try regardless of the success rate on that day and 15% chances of landing it cleanly.
Nobu - 50% chances of trying depending on the success rate on that day and 35% chances of landing it cleanly.
Plushy - Will try and land them.
Lambiel - No idea.
Joubert - Will try and land them.
Koz - 60% chances of trying somewhat depending on the success rate on that day. But may go for it regardless. 20% chances of landing it cleanly.
Chan - No try.
Johnny - No try.
Evan - 15% chances of trying it and 20% chances of landing it.

 

[museksk8r]

Any reason you left out Jeremy and Tomas?

 

[Bennett]

Any reason you left out Jeremy and Tomas?

No reasons. Just forgot.

Jeremy - Will try and 70% chance of landing it cleanly.
Tomas - Will try them and 95% chance of landing at least one of them cleanly.

 

[Trewyn]

I think Lambiel will also very likely try one; especially if he still doesn't have his triple axel back; he needs the quad to be anywhere near the podium!

 

[nolwenn]

Amodio will certainly try a quad salchow (30% chances of landing it cleanly, 60% chances of a 2 footed one)

 

[Bennett]

Regarding dai, his a couple of the recent practice reports after nationals do not sound very promising. He also did not suceed in it at any of the comps this season. I feel that he'd be better off without it if he wants to medal. But if he wants to win over plushy, he needs it. Yet, this may end up no medal for Dai.
Nobu expresses strong wish to try the quad, but I hope that Morosov could stop him when it is neither likely nor necessary.

 

[blue_idealist]

I think Plushenko's guaranteed to try it and also land it, maybe more than one. Stephane will also probably try one, because he doesn't have the triple axel.. but I think any of the others depends on how things go.. a lot may try in the LP depending on how their SP went

 

[cristina]

Lambiel can try as well 2 and land them, like he did in his LP in European Championships.

 

[miki88]

So Plushenko seems like the only one who can land quad consistently? I heard Chan not only won't try a quad but also has problems with his axels. It seems like the technical difficulty of the men's field are almost on the same level as the ladies!

 

[Hurdler4eva]

I think both Jeremy and Evan will try the quad and I really think both will land clean ones!

 

[jennylovskt]

So Plushenko seems like the only one who can land quad consistently? I heard Chan not only won't try a quad but also has problems with his axels. It seems like the technical difficulty of the men's field are almost on the same level as the ladies!

Do you ever watch men's skating?!:sheesh:

Besides Plushenko, Brian Joubert and Tomas Verner were pretty consistant on quad landings. Jeremy's quad is getting more and more consistant. I think Lambiel's quad will be fine by the Olympics. How many ladies have ever tried 3A?!

 

[miki88]

Do you ever watch men's skating?!:sheesh:

Besides Plushenko, Brian Joubert and Tomas Verner were pretty consistant on quad landings. Jeremy's quad is getting more and more consistant. I think Lambiel's quad will be fine by the Olympics. How many ladies have ever tried 3A?!

Thanks for letting me know there are more men who can do the quad. Sorry, I don't follow the men's event as much as the ladies. I just thought the quad should be a stable jump of the men by now, so I was kind of surprised to hear so many of the competitors not landing it consistently or not even attempting it. I was little exaggerating when I said they were almost at same level as the ladies . I meant in relative terms. Many of the top female contenders are doing the hardest jumps that are required of ladies (3-3, 3axel). (Although the technical difficulty hasn't matched 1992 Olympics where two women attempted triple axels in one competition). So naturally, I feel that the male contenders should also at least try the quad.

 

[seniorita]

Daisuke, Kozuka,Oda and Abott will try and land it.
Maybe also Brezina and Amodio try their 4S and Fernandez his 4t.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Thanks for letting me know there are more men who can do the quad. Sorry, I don't follow the men's event as much as the ladies. I just thought the quad should be a stable jump of the men by now, so I was kind of surprised to hear so many of the competitors not landing it consistently or not even attempting it. I was little exaggerating when I said they were almost at same level as the ladies . I meant in relative terms. Many of the top female contenders are doing the hardest jumps that are required of ladies (3-3, 3axel). (Although the technical difficulty hasn't matched 1992 Olympics where two women attempted triple axels in one competition). So naturally, I feel that the male contenders should also at least try the quad.

Who of the top ladies are doing triple-triples and triple axels?

 

[Hsuhs]

Mine:

With Daisuke it's not so much about going for one (he will), but fully rotating it. 2f/ step out will prob leave Dai with a 4T< and -GOE, a fall on top of that will mean he'd done it for nothing

Jeremy hasn't skated a clean lp with 2 3As and a quad so far this season yet iirc

Tomas is capable of landing a beautiful 4T+3T on a good day (and bombing the rest of the program)

Brian could do a 4+2 instead of planned 4+3 again

Stephane hasn't come back to be in the top 10, sure he'll quad

I have no idea how safe Evan's going to play.. I think it will depend on the starting order in the lp

Zhenya 2 quads? No problemo. 3? He might. Will double some other jump, but it won't matter.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Good thread!

Evan won't try them, after he fell hard at nationals and got the worst scores he got all season and knowing he won he GP Finals and Worlds quadles he won't risk it.

Plushy will do one in each program and land them.

Verner will go for them in both programs ans I preict he will land them both.

Lambiel has to land them in both programs to have shot, so he will be trying them. As to weather or not he will land them, no idea.

Jeremey will stick to the nationals layout, no quad in the SP, solo quad in the free. I predict he lands it.

I think all three Japanese men will try the quad in the free (and only in the free). I don't think Kozuka will land it, Nobu will, Dai (?) right now I am leaning towards the affirmative.

Johnny won't try one.

Joubert will land one in each program and pop the salchow into a double or a triple.

Patrick won't try one. If he is he is crazy or else crazy confident.

 

[dlgpffps]

Who of the top ladies are doing triple-triples and triple axels?

No one. The only female skater who could've qualified is Mao, but she's lost her triple-triple (regardless of what her fans say). If she had it, she would've done it in competition. Yu-na tried to master the 3A after losing to Mao at Junior Worlds, but Orser told her to drop it (probably because it was proving too taxing and difficult). She does, however, have the most reliable 3-3 in business. Yukari had a 3A. I'm not sure where it went. Miki does a 3-2 (but she will probably go for a 3-3 at the Olympics), and Rochette has a 3-2. Those are the top contenders. My point (and probably ImaginaryPorgue's) is that the ladies are technically underwhelming (few reliable 3-3s, no reliable 3As - Mao's are often URed - and very few 7-triple programs). Heck, the OGM favorite Kim can't do the 3loop (but apparently that's fine in the CoP system). I think this current crop of men is one of the strongest yet, while the ladies... well, let's see what happens at the Olympics. Maybe Lady Technical Luck will grace all of them (and that's my little wish).

As for the quad, I hope everyone succeeds, but my money's on Plushenko, Joubert, Verner, Lambiel and Abbott. The men's division will be the most exciting this Feb

 

[miki88]

No one. The only female skater who could've qualified is Mao, but she's lost her triple-triple (regardless of what her fans say). If she had it, she would've done it in competition. Yu-na tried to master the 3A after losing to Mao at Junior Worlds, but Orser told her to drop it (probably because it was proving too taxing and difficult). She does, however, have the most reliable 3-3 in business. Yukari had a 3A. I'm not sure where it went. Miki does a 3-2 (but she will probably go for a 3-3 at the Olympics), and Rochette has a 3-2. Those are the top contenders. My point (and probably ImaginaryPorgue's) is that the ladies are technically underwhelming (few reliable 3-3s, no reliable 3As - Mao's are often URed - and very few 7-triple programs). Heck, the OGM favorite Kim can't do the 3loop (but apparently that's fine in the CoP system). I think this current crop of men is one of the strongest yet, while the ladies... well, let's see what happens at the Olympics. Maybe Lady Technical Luck will grace all of them (and that's my little wish).

As for the quad, I hope everyone succeeds, but my money's on Plushenko, Joubert, Verner, Lambiel and Abbott. The men's division will be the most exciting this Feb

Okay. I just felt the men's field a few years back was more technically advanced but maybe my perceptions are not right . About the ladies not having a 7 triple program, I think it's because there are a lot of transitions and the programs seem busier under th CoP, so I guess it's more taxing. And the jumps usually come in combinations. Let's see if Mao still leaves out her 3-3 in future seasons before making the judgment that she lost it.

 

[Ximena]

Mine:
Zhenya 2 quads? No problemo. 3? He might. Will double some other jump, but it won't matter.

It's so annoying when that happens to him, quads? Not a problem, 3ax? Can do them even in exhibition, 3sal? Not so much.

Stephane is going to do the quad no matter what. With no 3ax, a quad is the only thing that will keep in contention after the SP.

Brian will forget the 4s and try two 4t

 

[dlgpffps]

Let's see if Mao still leaves out her 3-3 in future seasons before making the judgment that she lost it.

You're right. I should've included the qualifying statement "for the time being." I actually think Mao will get her 3-3 back, but just not this season. I do, however, have faith that her 3-3 will return in time for Sochi. I'm actually hoping for another Yu-na vs. Mao faceoff in Sochi, with Mao staying in the game for all four years (in the meanwhile improving artistry and every technical department) and Yu-na returning the year right before the games after a long, rejuvenating rest. But then again there are the Russian jumping beans, Murakami, Nagasu and others... Sochi will be interesting