Would Plush have won if the new rules had been applied?

[janetfan]

I seriously doubt if Plushy now or even when he was young could duplicate Evan's program. Plushy has been frontloading programs going back to when he was 15.

Maybe it is Mishin's belief that it is necessary to get the big tricks over with at the start - but that has become an outdated strategy in recent years.

Evan actually skates better and looks to get stronger in the second half of his LP and Plushy looks the opposite.

Interesting to see if the Russians will show programs with better pacing in the future - and take advantage of the 2nd half jump bonus.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

You mean no quad skaters dont suffer anywhere? Lysacek suffers in no area cause he is not quad jumper? I dont buy the whole Cop packet. Verner Vs Lambiel Vs Plush Vs Joub Vs Kvdp etc are completely different skaters each. A. Dimitriev said "Plushenko could have done Lysacek 's program with no sweat ", I m rephrasing here,but I m sure Plush could not have done a cop program like Taka's program or Abott 's. For Lysacek's I m not sure, maybe he could have , with triples and all and more efficient flapping, it could work. But he didnt anyway so there 's no point to speculate. And it is not like Abott suffers from the quad he tries. He can blow the program even without a quad. Or he can be perfect like nationals.

Of course I don't mean that. That's not the argument I'm making and I don't see how you can read that. People are specifically saying that COP hurts quad jumpers. I'm arguing otherwise. The weaknesses that other skaters have affect them differently. Maybe not enough, maybe too much.

When you say you don't "buy the whole COP packet?" can you explain what you mean? I'm not confident Plushenko could do the program that Lysacek did, with the more evenly laid out jumps etc, but I do think he's the stronger skater. He just didn't have the stronger skate.

 

[vlaurend]

Using all the marks and the new SoV, but all other rules from 2009/10 I come up with

Plushenko 258.58 (1, 2)
Lysacek 257.43 (3,1)
Takahashi 254.37 (2,4)
Lambiel 249.92 (4,3)
Chan 245.04 (7,5)
Weir 240.91 (6,6)

Assuming they didn't change their jumps to take advantage of the new rules, that puts Plushenko a little over 1.15 points above Lysacek. So what if they knew about the new rules and changed their programs accordingly? Could Lysacek have added 1.16 points between the SP and FS?

(1) Lysacek might have gone for an underrotated quad, landed it and gotten 70% of its value.

(2) Lysacek might have done a better camel or flying camel spin. . . then again, maybe he wouldn't.
Under the new rules, the single position spin cannot be in the same position as the flying spin, and of course both men did sitspins for both (as did most of the other men), so they would have had to do a camel spin for one of those instead. Neither did any difficult variations on the camel except for the reverse entry, so it's hard to say which would be able to get higher levels/GOE on a camel or flying camel.

Having just looked at the features they used to get levels in their sitspins and CCoSp's, both men would have lost the same number of points/levels on those two spins due to the new spin feature rules, so it would really come down to who could master more features on a camel or flying camel.

As for the 2nd step sequence, with the new base value for each at just 2 points and no levels given, it would have come down to their GOE's, which were tied at 1.6 combined for SP & FS. So no difference there.

 

[seniorita]

I seriously doubt if Plushy now or even when he was young could duplicate Evan's program. Plushy has been frontloading programs going back to when he was 15.

Plushy was frontloading his programs I guess since 15 but since 15 he had quad combos and also there was no CoP there. Any other comparison of Plush in the past vs Lysacek fails me right now. There is a whole database in youtube from american commentators about what plush did or did not do since he was 15. Browning in 2006 said he is not his cup of tea presentationwise but apart from huge jumper he has great feet. I saw this here, in the archives of GS articles. Peter G And Terry G were gushing for years, and take a look of their last commentary they did for him in Euros 2006 about his edges and control plus anything else. Button when he was on good mood also. They are more wise than me. Try it. Cause as much objective as I can be your comments sound desillusional, on the other hand, I can repeat I m like Naomi Campel for the next 4000 posts, but I m not.

When you say you don't "buy the whole COP packet?" can you explain what you mean?

Oh, i think I read opposite and I meant probably what you said but i said it wrong. I thought that u said that non quad skaters have everything else. I just wanted to say that the skater who has not the quad and is using his triples etc is not necessary the CoP whole packet

 

[gmyers]

I am sure if Plushenko did not start off his programs with a quad triple every time he could have more energy for jumps in the second half of the programs. Someone who does three or four triple jumps has a whole different division of energy than someone who starts out with a quad triple. Plushenko hadn't done that in more than a decade so who knows how many triple jumps he could do after the halfway point for bonuses if he didn't spend so much energy and stregnth on the quad triple. As far as I know he is still the only skater in the world who can do that and not fall or double or single multiple jumps. This is why COP punishes quads. You have more energy for everything without doing a quad not to even mention a quad triple. Spin levels step levels all that-and Plushenko still got level 3's and 4's on some spins and steps though GOE was always in the base value to 1 range (sometimes 2 but rarely ever +3).

 

[museksk8r]

I seriously doubt if Plushy now or even when he was young could duplicate Evan's program. Plushy has been frontloading programs going back to when he was 15.

Maybe it is Mishin's belief that it is necessary to get the big tricks over with at the start - but that has become an outdated strategy in recent years.

Evan actually skates better and looks to get stronger in the second half of his LP and Plushy looks the opposite.

Interesting to see if the Russians will show programs with better pacing in the future - and take advantage of the 2nd half jump bonus.

Likewise, I seriously doubt Evan could duplicate Evgeny's program in the jump aspect. After all, he did fall hard on his *** trying to attempt a 4toe at Nationals, a 4toe attempt that was downgraded to a triple and with a fall.

 

[janetfan]

Likewise, I seriously doubt Evan could duplicate Evgeny's program in the jump aspect. After all, he did fall hard on his *** trying to attempt a 4toe at Nationals, a 4toe attempt that was downgraded to a triple and with a fall.

No doubt about that but it is not Evan going around making such comments. This silly talk came out of Russia.
There is also no doubt the second half of Evan's program kicked Plushy's x x x.
What's your point? Plushy did this , Evan did that.

Whining and poor sportsmanship doesn't change that Evan is the Olympic champion and Plushy is a bad loser.

 

[museksk8r]

No doubt about that but it is not Evan going around making such comments. This silly talk came out of Russia.
There is also no doubt the second half of Evan's program kicked Plushy's x x x.
What's your point? Plushy did this , Evan did that.

Whining and poor sportsmanship doesn't change that Evan is the Olympic champion and Plushy is a bad loser.

My point is it's not very fair to focus on the shortcomings of one skater while completely ignoring those of the other skater for the sake of what - national pride? Every sporting event has whiners and complainers about results; it's just people expressing their own personal opinions. Evgeny felt he deserved the gold and expressed that - so what? It's his opinion, nothing else, and he has every right to express it if he wants. It was the American media painting Evan as a gracious champion and Evgeny as a sore loser. That's their opinion. Neither viewpoints are facts. Freedom of speech, anyone? How is it hurting you if Evgeny claims he should have won Olympic gold and jokingly steps momentarily on the top spot of the Olympic podium? Aren't there bigger, more important things in this world to focus our worries on?

 

[gmyers]

Well Plushenkos gold winning performance was far superior to Lysaceks- He had a quad triple. The first half of Lysackes free skate was much much easier than Plushenkos which is why he did more in the second half. Why is it that only the second half matters now? "Well this person did a quad triple in the first half" "well this person did a 3 triple jumps in the second so that is much better!" What kind of weirdness is going on in skating now??? LOL !!! I guess some people just want jumps to be backloaded no matter what even if it means the end of quads or possibly triples going by Lepisto's world medal.

 

[janetfan]

My point is it's not very fair to focus on the shortcomings of one skater while completely ignoring those of the other skater for the sake of what - national pride? Every sporting event has whiners and complainers about results; it's just people expressing their own personal opinions. Evgeny felt he deserved the gold and expressed that - so what? It's his opinion, nothing else, and he has every right to express it if he wants. It was the American media painting Evan as a gracious champion and Evgeny as a sore loser. That's their opinion. Neither viewpoints are facts. Freedom of speech, anyone?

National pride? Did Obama even know or care that Evan won?
I recall Putin called Plush, gave a nationalistic peptalk and told him he was the winner....or whatever.

Geez, this is the Putin who has shut down much of the free press and media in Russia.

What are you thinking about here? Plushy and his friends can whine and insult Evan all they want - and posters can point out his poor sportsmanship. That is freedom of speech.

Plushy has every right to keep complaining, in N. America atleast.



Where is freedom of speech part of this :think:

 

[gmyers]

All American olympians were invited to the white house-it's not like no on cares about the olympics in the white house. they are represerntiaves of the US

 

[gsrossano]

Assuming they didn't change their jumps to take advantage of the new rules, that puts Plushenko a little over 1.15 points above Lysacek. So what if they knew about the new rules and changed their programs accordingly? Could Lysacek have added 1.16 points between the SP and FS?

....

Rule what if's, assuming all the proposer content rules pass (and they probably will).

If you eleminate the second step sequence from the short programs and score the second step sequence in the FS as the soon to be ChSt element, Plushenko again wins. In addition, if he has a 4S Pluchenko adds a second quad to the SP and opens up his lead by several more points. Both skaters will have to adjust their spin features to adjust for the new features requirements, but that probaly willnot chage their leves or scores much.

If Lysacek does not have a quad in the short and the long, and Plushenko has two each in the short and the long, I don't see how Lysacak overcomes the changes which all faver the quad (call them collectively the Plushenko rules).

A underrotated 4T with 70% scored at -2 will get 5.2 points, where 3Lo is 5.1 and 3F is 5.3 in BV. So he is better to do the triples well and get +GoE which will give more than 5.2

A fall on 4T now will give him 6.3, which is more than the 6.0 BV for the 3Lz, so maybe it is worth trying the quad if he can get all the way around on it. But even so, if Plushenko has four clean quads and Lysacek tryes a few and falls down, I expect Lysacek still loses.

The rules seem clearly designed to make it much more difficult for a skater without a quad to win. It is ironic that after the Men's event, the ISU bigwigs (including speedy) rushed to say the result was exactly right because the system was designed for the best all around skater to win. And then they go home and cook up new rules that favor a Plushenko type skater over a Lysacek type skater.

(added after running the numbers)

Remove the second steps sequence from the short, make the second step sequence in the long ChSt, give Lysacek a 4T in the short and the long with a fall on both, Lysacek wins. Then give Plushenk a second quad in the short or the long, Plushenko wins.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I am sure if Plushenko did not start off his programs with a quad triple every time he could have more energy for jumps in the second half of the programs. Someone who does three or four triple jumps has a whole different division of energy than someone who starts out with a quad triple. Plushenko hadn't done that in more than a decade so who knows how many triple jumps he could do after the halfway point for bonuses if he didn't spend so much energy and stregnth on the quad triple. As far as I know he is still the only skater in the world who can do that and not fall or double or single multiple jumps. This is why COP punishes quads. You have more energy for everything without doing a quad not to even mention a quad triple. Spin levels step levels all that-and Plushenko still got level 3's and 4's on some spins and steps though GOE was always in the base value to 1 range (sometimes 2 but rarely ever +3).

... See, the inherent premise in your argument just doesn't strike me as logically sound, or it might just be wording. Essentially, what you're saying is that the system punishes quads because it expects you to skate well after landing one to succeed.

Oh, i think I read opposite and I meant probably what you said but i said it wrong. I thought that u said that non quad skaters have everything else. I just wanted to say that the skater who has not the quad and is using his triples etc is not necessary the CoP whole packet

Ah, fair enough. Realistically, my comments really should narrow on four competitions: Worlds 2008, 2009, 2010 and Olympics 2010. People have major issues with the WC/OGM not having a quad and feel that relates to COP dismissing it, but the quad skaters in those events had more issues then the non-quad skaters. But no, I don't feel that there's any non-quad skaters that have the whole package, even if I enjoy many of them.

 

[janetfan]

All American olympians were invited to the white house-it's not like no on cares about the olympics in the white house. they are represerntiaves of the US

Yes, Americans recognize our athletes represent their country at the Olympics.

I liked the way Evan handled himself in Vancouver, neither bragging or slinging insults at his fellow competitors.

And as a representative of Russia, did Plushy show the world what Russians are like? Did he represent his country with good sportsmanship and Olympic spirit?

Who is to say how Evan would have reacted if he had come in second and by such a close margin?
Maybe he would have shown no class and made disparaging remarks about Plushy. If he did he would not have been treated like a hero and invited to the Whitehouse for a state dinner.

Perhaps that is an unfair comparison - because in the USA figure skating is just not that important or popular.

Here is Evan is talking about it - he says it is hard to lose and says Plushy deserves the benefit if the doubt. I think he is right and wonder if these two competitors will meet again in the future?

If they do, only one can win. I don't think any new rules will be the determining factor. Just like we saw in Vancouver - it will be about who skates the best that night.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJzXRhuOcEc

 

[Buttercup]

It's very easy to be a gracious winner; not as many athletes do as well in defeat, even when the winner is clearly deserving. One has only to look at Evan Lysacek's response to losing 2010 Nationals to see that he's not always a shining model of grace and class.

OTOH, despite their younger age and the crushing pressure both have been under in the past few years, Yu-Na Kim and Mao Asada have managed to stay professional and classy.

Plushenko would have won under the new rules. He won easily under the 2006 version of IJS, and this one would have been closer, but the numbers would have gone his way. The proposed changes seem to directly address some of the trends we've seen in men's skating these last couple of years, and it remains to be seen how skaters who benefited from taking a more calculated approach will deal with the new scoring. I would be extremely surprised if any of the Olympic medalists other than Dai will return, so the argument, in their case, is moot.

 

[janetfan]

It's very easy to be a gracious winner; not as many athletes do as well in defeat, even when the winner is clearly deserving. One has only to look at Evan Lysacek's response to losing 2010 Nationals to see that he's not always a shining model of grace and class.

.

Yes this is true - just as it is also very true that at Natls a skater is not representing his country before the world the way he does at the Olympics.

But the Lysacek bashers will always manage to find a way to criticize him and comparing Natls to the Olympics feels a bit like "apples and oranges."
Most would agree they are not the same thing.

 

[museksk8r]

It's very easy to be a gracious winner; not as many athletes do as well in defeat, even when the winner is clearly deserving. One has only to look at Evan Lysacek's response to losing 2010 Nationals to see that he's not always a shining model of grace and class.

My thoughts exactly! :agree:

Yes this is true - just as it is also very true that at Natls a skater is not representing his country before the world the way he does at the Olympics.

But the Lysacek bashers will always manage to find a way to criticize him and comparing Natls to the Olympics feels a bit like "apples and oranges."
Most would agree they are not the same thing.

Just because a National championship is not televised around the world doesn't give Lysacek a free pass to act like a jerk when his PCS marks are not inflated for a lousy performance just because he's reigning World and GPF champ. It's still and :disapp: that he expected 9s for what he delivered on the ice. It also doesn't give him a free pass to diminish Abbott's win by saying he wasn't trying to win in Spokane. We all know Evan would have liked to have won the championship. Who competes wanting to finish 2nd? So now in your mind you're saying when Plushenko complains about his marks and not winning, it's wrong because it's on a world stage, but when Lysacek does it, he's completely forgiven because no one's paying attention? Give me a break. Lysacek acted like an *** at Nationals IMO and he spoke his opinions about the competition just as I am speaking my opinions that I didn't like his behavior. Plushenko did the same thing with the Olympic results and you're free to express your disapproval about his behavior. Don't sit there and try to say one is different from the other though. You really can't without looking like a hypocrite. It's not apples and oranges as you say; it's apples and apples. JMO.

Here is Evan is talking about it - he says it is hard to lose and says Plushy deserves the benefit if the doubt. I think he is right and wonder if these two competitors will meet again in the future?

And I do give Lysacek credit for admitting that. Why don't we all do the same? Why are we even talking about this like it's an issue 3 months later? It's the off-season, that's why. The new season cannot get here soon enough.

 

[janetfan]

My thoughts exactly! :agree:



Just because a National championship is not televised around the world doesn't give Lysacek a free pass to act like a jerk when his PCS marks are not inflated for a lousy performance just because he's reigning World and GPF champ. It's still and :disapp: that he expected 9s for what he delivered on the ice. It also doesn't give him a free pass to diminish Abbott's win by saying he wasn't trying to win in Spokane. We all know Evan would have liked to have won the championship. Who competes wanting to finish 2nd? So now in your mind you're saying when Plushenko complains about his marks and not winning, it's wrong because it's on a world stage, but when Lysacek does it, he's completely forgiven because no one's paying attention? Give me a break. Lysacek acted like an *** at Nationals IMO and he spoke his opinions about the competition just as I am speaking my opinions that I didn't like his behavior. Plushenko did the same thing with the Olympic results and you're free to express your disapproval about his behavior. Don't sit there and try to say one is different from the other though. You really can't without looking like a hypocrite. It's not apples and oranges as you say; it's apples and apples. JMO.

Whatever you say is Ok with me. You appear to be in serious need of a break so go ahead and take one.
This whole topic is getting boring and I apologize for any and all remarks I made about it.

Good luck to Plushy and Evan in all future skating endeavors.

 

[museksk8r]

Whatever you say is Ok with me. You appear to be in serious need of a break so go ahead and take one.
This whole topic is getting boring and I apologize for any and all remarks I made about it.

Good luck to Plushy and Evan in all future skating endeavors.

I don't need a break; I've said all I wanted to on this topic. Thank you.

 

[Jaana]

My thoughts exactly! :agree:



It also doesn't give him a free pass to diminish Abbott's win by saying he wasn't trying to win in Spokane. We all know Evan would have liked to have won the championship. Who competes wanting to finish 2nd? So now in your mind you're saying when Plushenko complains about his marks and not winning, it's wrong because it's on a world stage, but when Lysacek does it, he's completely forgiven because no one's paying attention?

I think that it is wise of a skater not to skate all out at the Nationals, especially if there are three slots for the Olympics or Worlds. Abbott skated his best skates of the season at the Nationals(absolutely wonderful performances!!!), Evan skated his best at the Olympics and won the Olympic gold medal. If Kwan had been able to skate at 1998 Olympics the way she skated her freeskate at the Nationals, I feel that surely she would have won the gold in Nagano. Very rarely skaters are able to perform on their best level in many competitions, one must choose where it most counts, in my opinion.

I remember in 2007 as Evan "wasted" his best Carmen at US Nationals and at Worlds he did not come even close. I felt really disappointed.

Likewise, I seriously doubt Evan could duplicate Evgeny's program in the jump aspect. After all, he did fall hard on his *** trying to attempt a 4toe at Nationals, a 4toe attempt that was downgraded to a triple and with a fall.

Evan did the same jumps in 2007 Nationals, he also had excellent choreography and transitions.