U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

[bigsisjiejie]

Michelle made that leap at a younger age and the change was very obvious from the start, which I am not seeing from Gao. She just doesn't have the same kind of presence as Michelle at the same age. I think it's a bit concerning that despite the hype around Christina, several skaters younger than her are rivaling or exceeding her in terms of skating skills (two Russian phenoms) and presence on ice (the young chinese skater).

Agreed. Age-adjusted, she is not where Michelle was, or Sasha, or Yuna at the same age in terms of ice presence. I may be in a minority, but I believe that while one can develop skills and artistic expression over time, true "presence"--or call it "ice command" if you prefer--is something you either inherently have or you don't. And by age 16, usually you can tell if it's there or not. I don't see this quality in Christina's skating, competent though it is right now. I am racking my brains to think of a lady skater that after age 16, really developed "ice presence" or "ice command" and I'm coming up short right now. I can think of plenty (most?) who improved their technical and artistic qualities, but that is not what I'm referring to. In fairness to Christina, I have not seen her skate live...and seeing a live performance is a more accurate way to judge ice presence than watching a screen, even a live-feed screen.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Yeah, Czisny lucked out on the GP ciruit. Skate Canada she has Phaneuf and Makarova who could concievably beat her. Maybe Suguri. Not a heavy line-up at all. TEB is harder (Nagasu and Asada, along with Phaneuf), but the field missing Kim and Rochette (and in general lacking consistent competitors) means that one good result it really all that's necessary as long as you can steal a top five placement elsewhere, which is very plausible.

The world team? But I can see Czisny pulling a Wylie out of her hat nearing the end of her competitive career.

 

[Layfan]

Yeah, Czisny lucked out on the GP ciruit. Skate Canada she has Phaneuf and Makarova who could concievably beat her. Maybe Suguri. Not a heavy line-up at all. TEB is harder (Nagasu and Asada, along with Phaneuf), but the field missing Kim and Rochette (and in general lacking consistent competitors) means that one good result it really all that's necessary as long as you can steal a top five placement elsewhere, which is very plausible.

The world team? But I can see Czisny pulling a Wylie out of her hat nearing the end of her competitive career.

In keeping with my anti-jinx strategy this season of making outrageously bold predictions for my personal faves: arty:

Go Alissa!!!!

 

[Olympia]

The world team? But I can see Czisny pulling a Wylie out of her hat nearing the end of her competitive career.

We Czisny fans have been hoping for the "Paul Wylie moment" for years. I don't see why we can't keep hoping. After all, it doesn't cost anything, and if we're wrong, it doesn't alter the orbital path of the planet. Go, Alyssa!

 

[Tinymavy15]

Guess I'm seeing the cup as half-empty where you are seeing it as half-full, but so far, Gao does not impress me all that much. She may have improved, but even with improvements plus a year of intl Junior competition under her belt already, it's still not good enough to beat the 13- and 14-year old Russian girls who just entered the scene. IMO, Gao still skates far more juniorish than I'd expect for a 16-year old who's been skating as long as she has. I hope we DON'T see her at Sr intl competition this year--she'd get eaten up alive. (Well, maybe she'd do OK in a depleted field at 4 Continents, but I never take that competition too seriously anyway.) I doubt that she will be a podium threat at US Nationals unless the bigger guns shoot themselves in the foot, but even if she does, if I were on the committee, there's no way I'd send her to Sr Worlds in 2011. I think she's being eyed for Jr. Worlds though. Sorry to be a party pooper, but I see a lot more upside future potential in Siraj.

The little Russian girls might be tearing it up right now, but I see Gao as the best hope for the US by far. In my opinion, she is skating with far greater maturity and confidence than either Rachael, Mirai, Amanda, Ashley and whoever else can be considered a medal hope at Nationals (except maybe Alissa). Last year I found nothing special in her at all, but she had developed artistically so much over the spring/summer and has grown a few inches as well so she doesn't look like such a little girl out there.

 

[janetfan]

Here is Amanda's SP from Finlandia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7fh_E33h6c

Is she still skating Pairs?

 

[R.D.]

The little Russian girls might be tearing it up right now, but I see Gao as the best hope for the US by far. In my opinion, she is skating with far greater maturity and confidence than either Rachael, Mirai, Amanda, Ashley and whoever else can be considered a medal hope at Nationals (except maybe Alissa). Last year I found nothing special in her at all, but she had developed artistically so much over the spring/summer and has grown a few inches as well so she doesn't look like such a little girl out there.

Amanda?? if you are referring to Dobbs I don't think she belongs on that list.

Anyway, I'm going to wait until she's a full-out senior and wait for some results before I call her our best hope. It seems a bit early to be calling HER that, but as of now Nagasu seems the most promising. That is, hoping she can recover fully from her injury by early next year. She was the only one to be within striking distance of a World medal last year (yes, she blew it, but still, she had the chance)...it wasn't Flatt, nor would it have been Wagner or Czisny (or Zhang, for the fanboys).

The real chance Gao has here to prove she's among the top Americans (if it's true) is at Nationals. She'll have to beat the top 4 girls, but can she do it if said girls are at their best? (remember, I'm not talking about if they wipe the ice)

 

[PolymerBob]

I'm fairly confident our next National champ will be Alisoline Flatwagasu .....

...................................... with the silver going to Christabag Yasdobbwad ....

 

[silverlake22]

The little Russian girls might be tearing it up right now, but I see Gao as the best hope for the US by far. In my opinion, she is skating with far greater maturity and confidence than either Rachael, Mirai, Amanda, Ashley and whoever else can be considered a medal hope at Nationals (except maybe Alissa). Last year I found nothing special in her at all, but she had developed artistically so much over the spring/summer and has grown a few inches as well so she doesn't look like such a little girl out there.

I agree. The other thing is we don't know what will happen to Liza and Adelina in coming years as they have yet to go through puberty, at least Liza definitely has not hit puberty yet, so while their skating skills and PCS are impressive now, if they loose their jumps in coming years, then it won't matter how good their skating skills are. Christina is less likely to undergo major body changes in coming years considering her age and height, and her technique is also very solid, more solid than someone like Adelina's, so I think she is a safer bet than these young Russian girls who are still so tiny and young.

 

[janetfan]

The little Russian girls might be tearing it up right now, but I see Gao as the best hope for the US by far. In my opinion, she is skating with far greater maturity and confidence than either Rachael, Mirai, Amanda, Ashley and whoever else can be considered a medal hope at Nationals (except maybe Alissa). Last year I found nothing special in her at all, but she had developed artistically so much over the spring/summer and has grown a few inches as well so she doesn't look like such a little girl out there.

What part of Gao's skating compares favorably with this :think:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcKKB29Bjpo

I doubt if Christina's spins will ever approach Mirai not to mention flexibilty and stretch.
Mirai is also a more athletically elegant looking skater than Christina who still looks quite fragile.

I like Christina but don't think she is anywhere near as polished as Mirai at this time, but she is a late bloomer and has made great improvements this past season.
I would also say Mirai was as good of a performer at 14 as Christina is at 16.

I think Christina needs another year before we will know how she will do as a senior skater.
Orser must think so too and nothing wrong with taking time to develope Christina while improving various aspects of her skating.

But I would not be surprised if Christina medaled at Natls this season which might be easier than winning a medal at Jr Worlds.

 

[silverlake22]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7w8qbPEJe0

Kiri Baga's FS from the JGP in Japan. I like the 3lz-2t tano combo, but idk what I think about the rest. She seems slow and heavy on the ice, which is unusual because I know she is capable of skating quite fast and energetically.

 

[PolymerBob]

Amanda was only 5th at Finlandia. She doesn't have much time to get in top form for Cup of China.

 

[janetfan]

Amanda was only 5th at Finlandia. She doesn't have much time to get in top form for Cup of China.

Amanda has a much time as the others......
She finished behind Akiko, Kiira and the top two Russians. I don't think it was much of a surprise or as you wrote at the other thread that there is something wrong with her.

Amanda looks to be a developing singles skater and is still a work in progress. It's not like she is a former jr world champion who bombed at Natls last season.

Is Amanda still skating Pairs or is she only doing singles now?

Here is her LP and she moved up from 6th after the SP to 5th overall.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyq41EZBIv4

 

[herios]

Amanda has a much time as the others......
She finished behind Akiko, Kiira and the top two Russians. I don't think it was much of a surprise or as you wrote at the the other thread that there is something wrong with her.

But you have to take in consideration also how bad the skaters ahead of her skated too. Korpi was second with a 3 triple program and the two top russians did a splatfest. And Dobbds finished behind all 3 of them.

 

[janetfan]

But you have to take in consideration also how bad the skaters ahead of her skated too. Korpi was second with a 3 triple program and the two top russians did a splatfest. And Dobbds finished behind all 3 of them.

Amanda missed jumps in her SP and LP so it's not like she was clean either.......
Am I missing something here? Was Amanda supposed to win this event :think:

 

[bigsisjiejie]

I find Amanda a pleasant skater to watch, but she just doesn't have the technical goods to get up to the top. Even if she skated cleanly with what she's got now. At this point at age 17, I doubt if she will be able to reliably learn and compete the more difficult triples. Not sure how she and her partner are in pairs, but that might be her best focus for the future. There's something very likeable about her, and I wish her well. I'd be open to having her surprise me with new skating accomplishments, and make me eat my first sentence.

 

[janetfan]

I find Amanda a pleasant skater to watch, but she just doesn't have the technical goods to get up to the top. Even if she skated cleanly with what she's got now. At this point at age 17, I doubt if she will be able to reliably learn and compete the more difficult triples. Not sure how she and her partner are in pairs, but that might be her best focus for the future. There's something very likeable about her, and I wish her well. I'd be open to having her surprise me with new skating accomplishments, and make me eat my first sentence.

That's sort of how I see it. She does have some nice qualities and hope she has the best season possible.

 

[herios]

Amanda missed jumps in her SP and LP so it's not like she was clean either.......
Am I missing something here? Was Amanda supposed to win this event :think:

You missed my point. You made it sound like she did a good job as she was defeated ONLY by skaters who were supposed to come ahead of her.
My thought is if you are beaten by skters who skated poorly, it means you kinda sucked too...That was my point, I would take this result from Doobs poor.

 

[janetfan]

You missed my point. You made it sound like she did a good job as she was defeated ONLY by skaters who were supposed to come ahead of her.
My thought is if you are beaten by skters who skated poorly, it means you kinda sucked too...That was my point, I would take this result from Doobs poor.

Take it anyway you like it. I did not miss your point - just thought it was strange.
If anyone might be disappointed from Finlandia it could be Kiira and the two Russian Ladies who are all more accomplished skaters than Amanda. It's not like Amanda is going to be on the US Natl team anytime soon so you can say she sucked just as I can say I thought she did OK.

 

[PolymerBob]

Am I missing something here? Was Amanda supposed to win this event :think:

Not win, but a podium finish was reasonable to expect. Her 4CC score would have given her a bronze here by a wide margin.
Then again, this was her first event with her new programs in front of ISU judges. We will probably see improvement by Cup of China.