Mirai actually turned 18 this past weekend, I believe. You know what? She's still young. I remember being 17/18 and now that I look back on it - I was a total idiot (and that wasn't even that long ago!). I understand that Mirai is in a different situation, being a top athlete in her sport - she has to project maturity and grace on and off the ice. That being said, I do find her charming and believe that she'll learn from her past mistakes. Maybe not going to Worlds this year WILL be that "kick in the butt" she needs. She should now know that if she doesn't work hard enough for her goals - she won't achieve them. Contrast that with someone like Rachael Flatt. She's someone who doesn't necessarily have the same amount of talent and charisma as Mirai, but everyone knows that she's a hard worker.
To emphasize again - she's still young. Take someone like Joannie Rochette, for example. While I acknowledge that Joannie is an entirely different skater from Mirai in terms of style and aesthetic, Joannie didn't win her first world medal until the age of 23. She won her Olympic medal at 24. If she were to actually announce her retirement, no one would deny that Joannie had a successful career. She just peaked late. Some skaters reach peaks at different times. Heck, there's Alissa Czisny, who I think a lot of us discredited until this season. She's 23 and has the chance to be on the World podium this year. So with regards to Mirai - someone who has absolutely every capability to do well and to win major titles - she has time. I hope she uses it to develop and to work hard and battle any demons that may be preventing her from reaching the top.
I remember a similar discussion last year after Worlds, and I also remember taking the view that Mirai still had time. While I still think that she does, nevertheless, from a strictly probabilistic perspective, her window of opportunity is narrowing, if the standard of measurement is to become a great champion as opposed to occasionally medalling.
While I could persuade myself last year when she was just 17 (if you know, know what I mean...
) that she was still young, she no longer is, at least by comparison to the modern great champions. Putting on my green eye shade to settle into this insurance adjuster's perspective, if we refer to the Ladies Skaters Actuarial Tables circa the last couple of decades, it seems to me that the ladies who achieved sustained greatness (eg Michelle, Yuna, Mao) basically proved they were winners on the senior level by the time they were 15 or 16 years old, and won their first international championship before their 18th year had passed. There is reason to think (and the supporting evidence) that the statistical "peak" for ladies now tends to come earlier than for more historically distant champions, given the increased emphasis on athleticism.
Again, just fitting the data using Mk.1 eyeballs, a notion that strikes me is that Mirai's career trajectory more closely resembles Sasha's, another skater from whom much was expected early, but who did not win her first senior titles until she was around 18, and never won an international championship.
Admittedly, such fiddling around with statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt. There is always individual variation around the mean, so outliers are always possible. But this I take to be true on general principles: great ladies champions in skating will tend to show their colors early, and it gets increasingly more difficult to break through with every year that passes without crossing the finish line first (particularly given their relatively short competitive lives; the equivalent of a Phil Mickelson, who was well into his thirties before winning his first Major, is inconceivable).
I'm of the opinion that next year is going to be the acid test for Mirai. Why comfort yourself with the relatively low odds of being the (positive) statistical outlier if you can get the job done
now? What I sincerely hope does not happen is that Mirai is brooding over the same conclusions and puts too much negative pressure on herself, which could prove counter-productive. I would love to see the contrary, that she channels a soul-cleansing anger at herself and her doubters, and transforms it into a burning desire to come to this forum in 12 months time so that she can gloat to her heart's content
.
