Worlds 2011: Ladies predictions

[janetfan]

If Miki wants to exceed her score at 4CC, she better go for the 3/3 in actual competition. It's never easy to predict how Mao will do but she does tend to surprise us when it's least expected.

Mao skated very well in Vancouver and at Worlds last season. I would NOT be surprised in the least if Mao finished 1st or 2nd in Moscow.

 

[dlgpffps]

I doubt Mao will be clean or place higher than 3rd.

Well, to be clear I meant clean as in no-falls clean (Nationals, 4CC). I would never consider her 4CC performance "clean" in the very essence of the word since she got an edge call & two < calls (plus she two-footed a jump or two), but I have a hunch that she will keep on her feet this time as well... but I need to see practice clips to be sure.

I doubt Mao will be free of calls. I'm very sure she will get an edge call on her flutz & a < or << on her 2A-3T. When was the last time she was able to fully rotate the 2A-3T in international competition? 2007 Worlds, I think, but I'm up for correction. I don't understand why she keeps bringing it. That her combo's short on rotation is visible even in real time, even to this casual viewer. She probably has a better chance getting her 3F-3Lo combination ratified, given what I've seen in her most recent practice clips.

Anyways, here's to hoping Mao the best. Her LP hasn't been this good since... well, Czardas & I'd love to see it performed to its utmost potential. I also love how her 3A is turning up, so I want to see some of those executed as well.

 

[FlattFan]

Miki is doing 3Sal-3loop, and it looks fully rotated. ~2-6 points increase on BV. I think if Miki's clean, Miki will win, with Morozov's blessings. I think this will be her second title.

3lutz-2loop
3loop
3sal-3loop
---------
3lutz
2A-3toe-2loop
2A
2lutz (or 3flip)

 

[dlgpffps]

Oh in my post I said "some of those [3As]" assuming that she's doing one in the SP and two in the LP. She did only one in her LP back in Taipei, but I remember having read that her ultimate goal for Worlds is to do two 3As and a 3-3 in her LP. Can someone confirm this?

 

[miki88]

Oh in my post I said "some of those [3As]" assuming that she's doing one in the SP and two in the LP. She did only one in her LP back in Taipei, but I remember having read that her ultimate goal for Worlds is to do two 3As and a 3-3 in her LP. Can someone confirm this?

This layout was mentioned earlier in the season. I think when she was still training with Nakagubo. After Sato became her coach, he cautioned her against going for two 3As in the LP. After 4CC, Mao mentioned about continuing to polish her present jumps including the 2A-3T, so I'm not sure if they are going to change the present layout. I also remember Mao wanting to try the 3-3 in competition again but Sato says they should wait and see before making a decision.

 

[dlgpffps]

Miki is doing 3Sal-3loop, and it looks fully rotated. ~2-6 points increase on BV. I think if Miki's clean, Miki will win, with Morozov's blessings. I think this will be her second title.

3lutz-2loop
3loop
3sal-3loop
---------
3lutz
2A-3toe-2loop
2A
2lutz (or 3flip)

Nope, still think Taipei's her score limit. I don't see Miki actually going for a 2Lz or bringing back her shaky 3F (just to risky. She's been clean all season round with her current layout. Why change now, at the most important competition of the season?) Bringing in the 3S-3Lo may increase BV, but probably won't be worth the GOE she can gain from going with her previous layout.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

I predict a nonsurprising podium, regardless of the placements, three spots of the US ladies and lots o' grousing & wuz robbing from the fans...

 

[FlattFan]

Nope, still think Taipei's her score limit. I don't see Miki actually going for a 2Lz or bringing back her shaky 3F (just to risky. She's been clean all season round with her current layout. Why change now, at the most important competition of the season?) Bringing in the 3S-3Lo may increase BV, but probably won't be worth the GOE she can gain from going with her previous layout.

What are you saying? Her score limit is limited by what she will do. Taipei's score is scored on what she did in Taipei.

Bringing in the 3S-3Lo allows her to repeat the Loop instead of the 3Toe. It's not like doing 3Toe by itself gained her that much GOE anyway.

She would have an extra jumping pass to do, and if she's still shaky on that 3F, the 2Lz would be the best choice. Or she can just do a 3F without any transition. That was her downfall on the 3F.

So she will gain a few points by going for this layout. If Miki's clean, it will take a clean Kim to beat her. Kim's BV is a bit less than Miki's. Miki has Morozov and skates in Russia and is Japanese. Her PCS will be good. Just like Joannie's inflated PCS in Vancouver.

 

[Okami]

I doubt Mao will be free of calls. I'm very sure she will get an edge call on her flutz & a < or << on her 2A-3T. When was the last time she was able to fully rotate the 2A-3T in international competition? 2007 Worlds, I think, but I'm up for correction. I don't understand why she keeps bringing it.

"Keeps on"? 4CC was only the second time Mao attempted this combo since Worlds 2007. And despite attempting the combo for the first time in a long time, she didn't splat. Her 4CC combo looked better than the JO one, and the one done in the warm-up looked fully rotated. The ice coverage on 2A has improved a lot - Mao used to jump more "up-and-down", now her 2A's cover a lot of ice.

From the technical POV: "Because when there's no challenge, there's no progress." And I think Mao has her sights on making the Guiness book as the first lady to land 8 triples in a program. Not this season, maybe not the next - she mentioned that she's aware that re-tooling her jumps might take 2-3 seasons.

Her LP hasn't been this good since... well, Czardas & I'd love to see it performed to its utmost potential. I also love how her 3A is turning up, so I want to see some of those executed as well.

Each to his own, I guess. I'm not particularly font of Czardas - it could be good if Mao wasn't hit by a growth spurt, which made her skate a bit too slowly and cautiously for such lively music. I loved Fantasie Impromptu, though.

She did only one in her LP back in Taipei, but I remember having read that her ultimate goal for Worlds is to do two 3As and a 3-3 in her LP. Can someone confirm this?

She definitely won't attempt two triple axels in her LP, although dhe might do 3F-3L. It isn't her ultimate goal for this season, though - she's more concentrated on improving her speed and flow and continuing to re-work her technique.

The layout with two 3As and possibly two 3-3s is Mao's ultimate goal, but for Sochi. ^^'

 

[wonderlen3000]

Nope, still think Taipei's her score limit. I don't see Miki actually going for a 2Lz or bringing back her shaky 3F (just to risky. She's been clean all season round with her current layout. Why change now, at the most important competition of the season?) Bringing in the 3S-3Lo may increase BV, but probably won't be worth the GOE she can gain from going with her previous layout.

ETA. She is doing great so far and all she has to do is repeat the same performances from 4CC and there is no way Miki will be off the podium. No ones other than Kim and Asada can over take her points wise. Even if Cizney, Flatt, Kostner & Murakami goes super clean, I doubt they will crack the 190 mark.

 

[Okami]

I'm not sure Miki should tamper with her LP jumping layout - 2A-3T and 5 jumps in the second half give her a nice BV anyway. With Shin Amano on the judging panel it's better to be safe than sorry.

3S-3L and 3Lz in the SP is an excellent idea, though. And her 3S-3L in the practice looked just fabulous - great coverage and no hook/snow on the landing.

 

[wonderlen3000]

Mao doesn't need two 3A period. Her 3A in 4CC is one of the best in a long time, prob since her junior days. Bare in mind, Mao makes at least 4 mistakes (minors or majors depending on your view) where Miki goes squeaky clean @ 4CC.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Shin Amano is the Tech Specialist for Ladies. He is known to be very strict and not very popular with the Japanese.

 

[Olympia]

I don't know who to root for. I want to see them all skate clean. This is going to be a great World. I'm going to watch all of them on live stream, get days off for this competition, just soak it all in))

I wish I could do that! Hope you enjoy every moment of it.

I have exactly the same feeling about Worlds: I hope the postponement coupled with the adverse events in Japan will serve to inspire everyone, both Japanese and non-Japanese, to skate calmly and to the best of his/her abilities. As for whom I hope to see on the podium, I feel one way one day and another way the next. There are so many good skaters! As long as they all skate their best, I'm cool with the results. I want this Worlds to live in legend!

 

[Krislite]

[...]
So she will gain a few points by going for this layout. If Miki's clean, it will take a clean Kim to beat her. Kim's BV is a bit less than Miki's. Miki has Morozov and skates in Russia and is Japanese. Her PCS will be good. Just like Joannie's inflated PCS in Vancouver.

Miki's scores in 4CC maybe a fluke, but a comment from the Korean ISU judges say the ISU was purposefully pushing for higher GOE differential this season. But in any case, if Miki is clean, Mao and Yuna can still overtake her easily with some mistakes. They get much higher PCS than Miki and Yuna gets huge GOE, more than enough to offset Miki's higher BV. Base Value really doesn't count that much, otherwise Rachael Flatt would have been Worlds and Olympic champ already.

I'm not so sure how much more help Miki gets for being Japanese and having a Russian coach. There's Russian politiking behind the scenes, surely, and she might get sympathy points for the recent disaster, but I'm not so sure it would be that blatant or affect the results much.

Besides politics, there's also reputation, and a two-time world champ and an Olympic champ/world champ will earn bigger reputation points from the judges.

 

[FlattFan]

Miki's scores in 4CC maybe a fluke, but a comment from the Korean ISU judges say the ISU was purposefully pushing for higher GOE differential this season. But in any case, if Miki is clean, Mao and Yuna can still overtake her easily with some mistakes. They get much higher PCS than Miki and Yuna gets huge GOE, more than enough to offset Miki's higher BV. Base Value really doesn't count that much, otherwise Rachael Flatt would have been Worlds and Olympic champ already.

Mao was seemingly clean in 4cc and lost to Miki. In any case, it's not like Mao and Yuna has 5 points advantage over Miki for PCS. How much higher are you talking about? Miki gets huge GOE as well. BV doesn't count that much? When was Rachael's BV higher than everyone else but she still lost?

Besides politics, there's also reputation, and a two-time world champ and an Olympic champ/world champ will earn bigger reputation points from the judges.

Miki is a world champ as well. Her reputation this season seems to be better than Mao's.

 

[genki]

Shin Amano, really? He is the one who downgraded almost perfect 3a of Mao at world's last year. I even saw death threat to him somewhere.
Hope Mao will not get too nervous.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I'm predicting the top 5 as 1) Kim 2) Ando 3) Asada 4) Czisny 5) Flatt

That's definitely the smart money for the top 3, but I'm going to predict Kostner as #5, Murakami as #6, and Flatt as #7. Flatt isn't going to get any of her Triple-Triple or 2Axel-Triple combinations ratified and her PCS/GOE usually always falls short.

 

[BackStage Barbie]

That's definitely the smart money for the top 3, but I'm going to predict Kostner as #5, Murakami as #6, and Flatt as #7. Flatt isn't going to get any of her Triple-Triple or 2Axel-Triple combinations ratified and her PCS/GOE usually always falls short.

I must admit that some of my personal hopes are laced in with my "predictions". I would love to see Rachael in the top 5, though I realize that Kostner gets those sky-high PCS points even though she doesn't deserve them.

 

[silverlake22]

I think Miki will keep her LP layout the same, but maybe change her SP layout to 3s-3lo and 3lz in an attempt to not let Yuna win the competition with the SP if she's clean. All the jumps and combos in the back half of Miki's program get her BV up, and from the looks of it, Yuna won't be doing a 3lo or a 2a-3t combo in her FS, so Miki is not really at a disadvantage and I really don't see her doing a 3f or doing a random double jump somewhere just to add a 3-3. I think her peak FS score was reached at 4CC, but if she ups the content in her SP then she could gain a few extra points in that segment, getting her to around 205 which I can't imagine would be off the podium.