What will the 2011/2012 season bring us in ice dance?

[pangtongfan]

Maybe some of us are underrating the Shibutanis but I think it is way over the top to call them locked into a medal from now on or fighting with V/M and D/W on top already. Even if their scores improve alot that would at best put them on par with a normal P/B considering P/B would have blown them away by about 8 points this year without their disaester.

 

[KKonas]

If a number of dancers do go that route ie, sexy/sensual, do you think the Shibs not will stand out as a good thing or a bad thing?

I think it would be wise for the Shibs to go with a fun mambo or merengue. Technically they are strong so I think they would do very well in the SD. Of course we don't know what their competition will decide to choose but V&M are likely to go with the rhumba as they might as well use some of their FD here. For D&W I think a fast, difficult mambo would suit them best.

 

[colleen o'neill]

Pogue , I love it when you start one of these ! You've got it all so nicely organized , it helps keep me on track...sometimes I need that... I saw this this morning and have been wanting to get a chance to respond all day.It's been a wild ride in Ice Dance this year, but I don't see things letting up for next year ( although I hope we won't see so many wrinkles due to injury )It's like we bought a roll of tickets and don't even have to get off the rollercoaster in between.

I'm going to begin with the Canadians, since they happen to be in my thoughts at the moment.

V/M -If they are really fully back ( crossing all appendages ), we've seen how they can knock a Latin theme out of the park , and I'm expecting a FD that is nothing less than spectacular from them. ( Friendship is a wonderful thing , but Scott freely admits to preferring the top of the podium )I expect the ante will be upped.

W/P-I agree , must be enjoying a phenomenal boost in confidence.They achieved their goal , which their detractors wrote off as unrealistic . They must know that many observers felt they should have been placed above the Shibs in the SD , and if they had been.... well ,it must be thrilling and inspiring to know how close they came to being on the podium. I'm sure they'll continue to work hard. I hope some very serious thought will go into their new programs , particularly the FD.( I don't think Latin will be a problem for them ) I really think they have to be considered Canada's de facto second team , in spite of last year's national results, since the World placement was no squeaker between them and C/P...as has already been pointed out.

C/P-Must still be in shock , and I don't know what they'll do. I, too ,think a coaching change is in order, but don't know if that will be recognized. They still have the same problems in carriage and posture ( not to mention packaging ) that they had when they came up from Juniors ( problems shared by L/R's two next most visible teams ,R/H and O/H ) and in 2 yrs. there's been little or no improvement. So although I used to hope for it , I don't think this school is going to buckle down and make the necessary changes to their regimen in order to be able to live up to their own PR ( Ice Dance Elite ) . Or , even if the shock they recieved at this year's Nationals ( in R/H 's finish ) and World's ( in C/P's finish) is finally enough to make them see the light , their skaters have had 2 yrs. of their careers slip by without progressing. And a major change in their regimen will pay off over time, not instantly. If C/P and R/H had started to get the help they obviously needed two years ago..we could be looking at a different situation . But in the short time between now and next season ? Without a coaching change ? No.

P/I - last fall I would have predicted ( in fact , I think I did ) that they might be able to pass C/P in 2 yrs. ,unless C/P failed to progress. But now ,I think all bets are off.Because this team does not stand still.They have no major flaw to overcome. They seem to be able to identify what they need to work on and how to go about getting the help they need. They were already knocking on the door ,technically speaking , last year, and are equally promising in the performance aspects. I'm eager to see what programs they come up with. If they have a good GP, I think C/P are in serious trouble come the 2012 nationals. The door will be open.I don't think Skate Canada will want to seem to be so firmly in any of these team's corner from the outset ,as they did this year.

( Always excepting ,of course , VM.)

 

[tangos]

Colleen - Your dislike of C/P is endless and nauseating. They did have some great results this season, but unfortunatley had some problems at the finish. The bonus of their unfortunate worlds though, has been that your constant criticism of them diminished when your favs W/P passed them at the end of the season. However, if you cannot see an mprovement in their carriage, posture , toe point then you really cannot see past your biases. C/P are by far a much more dynamic team than W/P. They have stretched themselves each year, tried different avenues and not relied on the lovey dovey theme that is so popular.
As a team W/P are 2 years older and with the male partner being 3 and 1/2 years older, they should carry and display a lot more maturity on the ice than C/P. W/P floundered for 3 years before coming on strong this year, and their so called connection and maturity was not evident. Packaging wise, C/P present a clean, polished look. Costuming preferences are as varied as there are fans. What is not to ones taste may be to anothers.
By the way, as you say that so many people thought W/P should have been ahead of S/S, so many of the audience in Russia thought that C/P were greatly undermarked.

 

[dorispulaski]

It's really going to be an interesting year in dance next year.

I've heard that it is likely that it is going to be made more difficult to get level 4 in lifts. Also the required not touching sequence, I think in the SD?, is going to be circular. It is going to be fascinating to see how the teams do that, and it will add interest in an area when some of the step sequences have gotten rather generic in order to get all the different turns in to achieve level 4. I expect all of the top Z&S teams to arrive with really great circular not touching steps right out of the box.

Anything that makes lifts harder favors teams with a height difference-and that includes the Shibs. D&W and V&M have proved very, very strong in lifts for years now, so I don't expect them to have trouble, with this requirement, at least by Worlds. On the other hand, teams like F&S and I&K and C&L, where lifts have been a problem in the past, or where the gentleman has had back problems, may have more difficulty in adjusting to the new rule, if indeed said rule passes.

US, Russia & Canada are all going to have really amazing National competitions. Even with all 3 countries having three spots at Worlds, Euros and 4CC's, there are just so many really talented teams in all 3 countries!

Colleen just covered the situation in Canada, but she left out Harvey/Gagnon and Ralph/Hill, both of whom are worthy and talented teams. With V&M, W&P and C&P, not to mention P&I, all having a lot of success this last year, it might be hard for the younge/lower rankedr teams to stay focussed and keep working on their weaknesses. However, injuries happen, and retirements happen. I hope R/H and H/G will keep working, because both teams are really good, and really worth watching.

As to which 2 teams of W/P, C/P, and P/I finish 2nd and 3rd at Canadian Nationals, I would hesitate to predict. P/I will be at a disadvantage to W/P and C/P, because having not gone to Worlds this year, they may only get one GP, and that would be Skate Canada. In fact, it will be interesting to see which teams Skate Canada uses for their 2nd and 3rd picks. It might be smart to send W/P and C/P to non Skate Canada events instead, so that they can get a G/P score for 2 of R/H, H/G and P/I.

In the US, it's also going to be a fabulous nationals. D&W, the Shibs, and C&Z all placed top 10 in the World this year, and S&B placed top ten last year. However, it's hard to ignore that Lichtman&Copely (also a Z&S team) just won Junior Worlds, and will be in Seniors, and Kriengkrairut and Giuletti-Schmitt were wonderful at US Nationals, and except for some mistakes could have passed C&Z for third place. And I still like Cannuscio and Lorello (whose year-high point was a great SD at TEB), and Cannuscio and McManus, who did quite well in juniors and will be in Seniors this year. So there will be some great skating there at Nationals. The most interesting things to me will be what do S&B look like after a year off, and as a Z&S team, and what will C&Z come up with. I expect them to do great things with a Latin SD.

Also at Russian Nationals, there will be B&S, I&K, R&T, and K&A, and newly up from juniors, Monko & Khaliavin and Rushkash and Guerreiro, again a strong field with competition high for all 3 spots. I&K may struggle with new lift rules. M&K had some serious (and largely ignored) timing issues this year that may catch up with them in seniors, especially in the SD. I expect to see Khokhlova trying to win the I'm the hottest contest in the SD, for sure. There are probably some other teams going to seniors that are also strong. It will be a wonderful Nationals competition, too. I hope to see B&S get some really worthy choreo this year. I really do. And I hope I&K will do really well with Morosov, although changing a coach to change your results is something that does not always work.

As KKonas said, the rhumba CD is not a particularly sexy CD.
Some Rhumbas
Torvill & Dean 1984 Olympics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3-3AahwHTo
Bestemianova & Bukin 1984 Olympics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnOeR88n6TU
Blumberg & Siebert 1984 Olympics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDyrwi1kprs
Klimova & Ponomarenko 1984 Olympics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDg18vN3LDA
Fox & Dalley 1984 Olympics 6th
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmuIvnrWi0k

Even Usova & Zhulin couldn't inject a lot of steaminess into the rhumba CD
1991 Worlds
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0buSt4byhNQ

Consequently, teams that don't do steaminess, can match up the rhumba with the merengue, and be just fine.

That would include D&W, C&P, and the Shibs.

 

[colleen o'neill]

I probably shouldn't be tempted this late at night, but...

Once again.. I do not dislike C/P. When they first came on the scene, I thought they were full of promise. As I've said before , I still see much to appreciate in their skating. I feel they have been held back unnecessarily by poor choices made by their coaches. Instead of being completely objective about what the team needed to succeed , they seemed to take a defensive attitude and try to make up the difference with PR, and mainly looking for ways to disguise the problems.

I've been a dancer and a dance teacher.I know from close personal observation what can be done to correct a fault over the course of 2 yrs. As I've said before, I have seen some improvement in C/P's posture ,etc., but not enough to convince me that it's been a major focus. Either not enough help has been given , or it was given by someone without enough expertise to get results... But since you seem to want to believe I dislike C/P , you don't have to take my word for it, just think 'pairs' for a moment and compare what has been achieved with Meaghan Duhamel over the last 2 yrs. It's simply stunning. Do you believe she has greater talent , a better proportioned body, a greater will to succeed than C/P ?..I don't . And please don't say "they're just kids" again, because it's actually easier to make these corrections the younger the athlete /dancer is.The bad habit will have had less time to become set. The only reason Vanessa, Kharis and Kelly all have problems with high shoulders ( just for example) , is poor training in this regard, and there's simply no excuse for it at this level.

W/P are not my favourites...my favourites are V/M. But I've felt it quite unfair that so many people have not wanted to admit that W/P were anywhere near as good a team as C/P ,based on some very small margins of difference in their marks. So I've argued that they should be given credit for being very close in ability. I make no secret of the fact that I prefer more dancerly teams over more athletic ones..that's just a matter of taste. But it doesn't mean I can't recognise when an athletic team is as good or clearly better.

I'm just saying that after World's, I don't think W/P will automatically be percieved to be the third team in Canada . According to the results, the world now considers them our second team , for the moment, and C/P will have to work hard and make some progress if they want to change that. In Canada, if they have a close competition ,I don't think C/P can trust that they'll come out on the winning side. Unless we hear of a coaching change , or some very serious dance training , I don't feel confident that they'll be able to do it. This does not make me happy. I think it would be a shame if they could not remain competitive.

 

[cornell08]

Is something going on with C/Z? Are they still together....?

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

tangos, I'm gonna argue that the attitude you present is exactly the attitude C/P with their team need to avoid.

doris, I actually think that P/I are all right for two spots. The way the cut off works actually works doesn't hurt them as much thanks to a strong SB. They'll be fifth in line for a second one, should SC give them a first chance.

 

[npa]

Pogue V/M ..... ( Friendship is a wonderful thing , but Scott freely admits to preferring the top of the podium )

Could they find another choreographer? If they want to stay in "happy Canton" after all, what happened at WCh - OK, but why they couldnt made something without Zueva-Shpilband? I think they could skate perfectly C-P this year FD. Why they didnt work with Dean? But we dont know will they skate next season or no. Maybe they dont want to lose to there friends again next year.

As for next season.
1. Shibs will beat D-W in technik at Nationals again and will be very close to them at Nationals.
2. P-B will win there first WCh medal. Dont know, who will not, but this must be P-B year. If this two will not made this next year - they will never won WCh medal.
3. Russian team will Europian champoions next season. Now look, like B-S more close to do this.
4. Weaver-Poje will be higher, then C-P all next season. And if V-M will retier - they will become number one team in Canada.
5. P-I will beat C-P at Nationals or will be very close to them.

My wish list:
1. Samuelson-Bates will return and will have greate results at Nationals (i know, Shibs will be higher, but i wish S-B become number 1 team in USA - i really love there balletic lines - oposites to new World champions
2. V-M will skate one more season and will win one more gold with masterpies program from Dean And without Zueva-Shpilband, who since 2008 made all for V-M lose to D-W.

And i cant understand all this 10 in component score. Especially for D-W. I thought 10 - marks for perfection. Hope next season we will have less 10th in components score and less levels 4. I wish requirements for level 4 for all elements become more stronger. I think champions must show something unique in technik too.

But according this ISU wish to kill ice dance

The music does not have an uplifting effect (Free
Dance): - 1.0 to - 2.0
http://www.isu.org/vsite/vcontent/c...-3572-4771-layout160-129918-news-item,00.html
Page 30.

 

[CassAgain]

And without Zueva-Shpilband, who since 2008 made all for V-M lose to D-W.

What are you talking about?

 

[nylynnr]

Not sure how you can compare a potential program choreographed by Dean, to the proven winning programs of Z/S. Dean is unfamiliar with the ever-changing demands of IJS and, at times, unwilling to align his musical or choreographic vision to said demands. C/P, although very much appreciative of working with Dean, had a rough go of it with "Rigby." Despite the obvious PR benefits of a Dean competitive program, I would rather work with him on show programs.

 

[dorispulaski]

npa, Thanks to the brand new link to ISU Document 1677

Did you mean that Marina Zoueva's choreography was deliberately bad and biased against V&M and for D&W? If so, that's completely not believable, IMO.

Certainly, V&M could have skated C&P's choreo from Dean perfectly, but did you really like C&P's Fallin' Sd better than V&M's SD???? Certainly I didn't, and the judges didn't either.

Or are you only objecting to Samba? Would you really like Rigby better for V&M? That FD is totally not playing to Tessa & Scott's strong point of having great connection and unison????

It.does.not.compute. to me.

Please explain.

ICE DANCE
Requirements for Technical Rules with ongoing validity
Redrafts and updates effective July 1st, 2011

As usual, 34 pages long :disapp:

There are a lot of very explicit calling guidelines; more so than previous years. This is a good thing, probably. Perhaps levels called in the Pattern Dance especially will be a lot more uniform between panels.

However, I'm thrilled to see that the GOE for Serpentine and Reverse Rotational Lifts have been changed so that teams won't feel quite so required to do 4 short lifts rather than 1 long lift and 2 short lifts this season! (PAGE 2)

and there are specifications for the circular non-touching sequence, which I am really very interested to see. (PAGE 2)

And the key points of the Rhumba for the SD are specified:

Sequence with Step # 1 on the Judges’ side (R1)

Key Point 1Lady & Man Step 3 (Changes of Edge LFOIO)
Key Point Features 1. Correct Changes of Edge (Outside to Inside
to Outside)


Key Point 2Lady Steps 11 to 13 (Wd-LFI Wd-XF OpCho, RBO Wd-XB ClCho, LFI)
1. Stepped at least two blade lengths wide on Steps #11, #12 and #13
2. Correct Edges LFI (#11), RBO (#12) and LFI (#13)
3. Correct placement of free foot
4. Correct Turns


Key Point 3Man Steps 11 to 13 (Wd-LFI Wd-XF OpCho, RBO Wd-XB ClCho, LFI)
1. Stepped at least two blade lengths wide on
Steps #11, #12 and #13
2. Correct Edges LFI (#11), RBO (#12) and
LFI (#13)
3. Correct placement of free foot
4. Correct Turns


Then the same points on the opposite side of the rink.

The description of what you do to get credit for each key point has changed:

Inside of having to do at least one Key Point with no error to get level 1, now you have to:

75% of Pattern Dance Element is completed by both partners

for level One.

Level 2 is 100% completed by both partners and one Key Point correct
Level 3 is 100% completed by both partners and two Key Points correct
Level 4 is 100% completed by both partners and three Key Points correct

So this is a bit difference from last year.

It will be harder to get Levels on Dance Spins. There are additional criteria.

PATTERN DANCE ELEMENTS
Reduce by: No higher than:
Not holding Edges/Steps for required number of beats for one or both partners on a Key
Point (per Key Point)
in order to facilitate the technical execution of the Key Point 2 grades
for any other reason 1 grade
Not holding Edges/Steps for required number of beats for one or both partners for more
than 25% of Steps of the Pattern Dance Element
-1
Pattern Dance Element missed through interruption of up to ¼ element -1

The Timing stuff is aimed at M&K and other teams like them. Previously, Timing was only part of the PCS component explicitly. Now the penalties are spelled out.

Here's what you need for Level 4 Dance Spin:

OPTION 1
4 different Difficult Variations from 3 different Basic Positions (2 by both partners or 3 by one partner and 1 by the other partner,
at least 1 Difficult Variation being performed by partners simultaneously):
each Difficult Variation for at least 2 rotations.

OPTION 2
At least 2 rotations in each direction.
AND
3 different Difficult Variations from 3 different Basic Positions (3 by same partner or 2 by one partner and 1 by the other partner): each Difficult Variation for at least 2 rotations.

There's a lot of explicit stuff about examples of difficult position/variations in spins and lifts.

and

One Hand/Arm Rotational Lift Extra Feature:
Only One Hand/Arm Lift is used to lift, hold and set down the lifted partner, and
the lifting partner is on one foot for at least one rotation;
and/or the lifting partner significantly changes the level of his skating legs (knees) with a continuous motion;
and/or the lifting partner’s holding arm is fully extended in front with a significant distance between partners

Changes on Twizzle requirements:

Notes:
A chosen Additional Feature shall be considered for Level if it is executed simultaneously by both partners.
A chosen Additional Feature from Groups A and B shall be considered for a Level if it is fully achieved and established:
- within the first half rotation of the Twizzle, and
- held until the number of rotations needed for that Level is fully completed (2 rotations for Level 2, 3 rotations for Level 3, 4 rotations
for Level 4).
There is no limit on turns or movements performed on one foot between Twizzles for Option 2.
There is no limit on turns or movements performed on the change of foot or the steps between Twizzles for Option 1.
For Set of Sequential/Synchronized Twizzles Option 2, if there is a touch down or a push with free foot between Twizzles, the element will be
considered as a Set of Sequential/Synchronized Twizzles Option 1.

And the following is a bit different for Step Sequences

Adjustments to Levels:
If all criteria for a Level are met but Difficult Turns for that Level, Twizzles and, if any, the first performed two Extra Features cover:
between 50% and 75% only of the chosen pattern, the Level shall be reduced by one Level;
less than 50% of the chosen pattern, the Level shall be 1, or No Level if the requirements for Level 1 are not met.

And PCS explicit penalties are new, including for nonuplifting programs :sheesh:

To Composition and Choreography.
If there is a story or theme in the program and
it is not clearly understandable to the audience
(Free Dance): - 1.0 to - 2.0

To Interp and Timing
Violation of music restrictions (Short Dance**)
(with a maximum total of -2.0):
Music without audible rhythmic beat:
up to 10 seconds - 0.5
from 10 to 20 seconds - 1.0
from 20 to 30 seconds - 1.5
more than 30 seconds - 2.0
Incorrect Rhythms:
up to 1 minute - 1.0
more than 1 minute - 2.0
Incorrect tempo on Pattern Dance Elements (per
element):
up to ½ element - 1.0
more than ½ element - 2.0
Pattern Dance Element not started on required beat
(Short Dance): - 0.5 (per element)
The music does not have an uplifting effect (Free
Dance): - 1.0 to - 2.0

It will take me a while to really chew through all of this, and get believable guesses as to which teams will benefit and which suffer with these changes.

 

[npa]

npa,
Certainly, V&M could have skated C&P's choreo from Dean perfectly, but did you really like C&P's Fallin' Sd better than V&M's SD???? Certainly I didn't, and the judges didn't either.

Or are you only objecting to Samba? Would you really like Rigby better for V&M? That FD is totally not playing to Tessa & Scott's strong point of having great connection and unison????.

The strongest V-M point is that they could skate anything And this Samba FD show this on 100% They could dance - on floor or on skates - that what made them truth talant.
As for Dean choreo for them. I think in Rigby Tessa and Scott could show perfection of Dean choreo, Dean moves (i think all agree, that Vanessa and Paul show his old elements in this FD). There greate lines could be usefull for thsi program. This mirrow moves - who could show this better? They not only romatic couple on ice, they could show something unusual, but not with Zueva-Shpilband.
So this was only my wish list, so But never say never and be afraidm when you dreams will come truth
I dont think Dean made SD for them. Did he?
Before i read you didnt like V-M SD and FD. So - why not, @Falling@ will be something different for them
The problem is they are not a childrens anymore and skaters with such talent need to have exclusive chore for them. Just IMHO.
And yes, i LOVE, what Tessa-Scott did in this programs, but this isnt about choreo - this is about Tessa and Scott dancing and there greate skills in CDs

 

[colleen o'neill]

So much to say ,and only 2 fingers...

It's not that I wanted to leave R/H and H/G out of my figuring , I do agree that these are 2 worthy teams. R/H can be smooth and strong ,have a pretty good connection,and have a warm presence on the ice .. particularly Kharis (What a smile ). But they also have problem areas ( posture , her shoulders , he seems to break at the hip ). Then there's their material. It's time to stop sticking to either African music or cutesy-poo themes.They've become very one note, which should not be at their ages and the relatively short time they've been on the scene. They've had some really appalling costumes. Again , I have serious concerns that their problems may not be addressed by their current coaches.

( I just want to interject here..while waiting for a young team to "mature" , it's never a bad plan to just let them dance.. see: Shibs )

H/G seem to me to be quick , well connected, innovative and willing to take a risk. At last Canadians, I felt P/I should have been clearly ahead of R/H and the close decision should have been between R/H and H/G. I'm just speaking of my gut reaction to the programs and performances , without looking up the scores and comparing element for element. .. As with many others , the risk taking didn't pay off for H/G in the SD, but take that program out of competition , and it was well performed, intricate, sophisticated and engaging ( which may bode well for their future ). Besides some very memorable elements, there was charm and whimsy in their FD , without it degenerating into the cloyingly sweet..but I thought her costume was all wrong ,and didn't help the cohesiveness of the program.

I expect a battle royal between these 2 for the 5th spot on the national team..( I assume we only have 6 this year so the 5th place finishers wouldn't be bumped by the return of V/M) I have to say that a year and a half ago R/H would have been generally considered a pretty clear Canada #4 . Now with the advent P/I ( whose success will surely draw new talent to David Islam ),and the rise of W/L's school in the west ( They're building a veritable arsenal of teams )and the D/L school showing signs of excellence ..nothing can be taken for granted, and R/H will really have to fight for their spot next year.

I need a break..I'm coming back to tackle the Americans, Russians and Italians.

 

[FlattFan]

As for next season.
1. Shibs will beat D-W in technik at Nationals again and will be very close to them at Nationals.
2. P-B will win there first WCh medal. Dont know, who will not, but this must be P-B year. If this two will not made this next year - they will never won WCh medal.
3. Russian team will Europian champoions next season. Now look, like B-S more close to do this.

If they put this as a LSAT question, I think you would become a paralegal.

 

[pangtongfan]

If a Russian team wins Europeans then Pechalat & Bourzat wont medal at Worlds. Once one of the younger Russians moves past P&B it is over for them, unless it was a result of a huge fall like how the Shibutanis beat them by default this year. The only team P&B could lose to at Europeans and still possibly medal at Worlds later is Faiella & Scali perhaps.

 

[npa]

In 2007 Delobel-Shonfelder won gold at ECh and Denkova-Staviisky were third. At WCh Den-St won, Del-Shon were out of the podium (without big mistakes). So - why P-B couldnt made this?

 

[FlattFan]

In 2007 Delobel-Shonfelder won gold at ECh and Denkova-Staviisky were third. At WCh Den-St won, Del-Shon were out of the podium (without big mistakes). So - why P-B couldnt made this?

Denkova-Staviisky CD and OD weren't good at ECh.
If P-B lose to B&S at ECh (assuming not due to some freak mistakes), they are done.

 

[dorispulaski]

I think people are harking back to the old pre COP era when they are so quick to say teams are permanently going to be out of the medals, just because they did not do well at this year's worlds or had a bad season.

I don't think C&P will have to eternally take a back seat to W&P because they were conclusively behind them at Worlds, nor are they doomed to be passed by P&I.

I don't think F&S have necessarily lost it forever, because last season was a disaster, or that P&B absolutely must medal at Nice.

In the COP era, the rules change every year--and usually to the tune of some 30 pages or more of changes. Every change is an opportunity to the team that reads the rules and adapts them best to their own strengths and weaknesses. And every team that unflinchingly looks at their relative weaknesses, and works persistently to improve those weaknesses, has a great chance to move up.

Every year.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I think people are harking back to the old pre COP era when they are so quick to say teams are permanently going to be out of the medals, just because they did not do well at this year's worlds or had a bad season.

I don't think C&P will have to eternally take a back seat to W&P because they were conclusively behind them at Worlds, nor are they doomed to be passed by P&I.

I don't think F&S have necessarily lost it forever, because last season was a disaster, or that P&B absolutely must medal at Nice.

In the COP era, the rules change every year--and usually to the tune of some 30 pages or more of changes. Every change is an opportunity to the team that reads the rules and adapts them best to their own strengths and weaknesses. And every team that unflinchingly looks at their relative weaknesses, and works persistently to improve those weaknesses, has a great chance to move up.

Every year.

1. I think most of us question IF Crone/Poirier WILL "unflinchingly [look] at their relative weakness, and [work] to improve" more than anything else. I know P/I have a fairly solid understanding of what they need to do to improve. And from World Juniors to Thornhill and Thornhill to Canadian Nationals, I saw such a dramatic improvement I could hardly believe it. I didn't see them on the JGP, but their results from those events to JW corroborate that they have a very good learning curve. And the Rhumba is an easier CD than the GW, which helps the lower ranked teams, I'd think

I'd also point out that we've seen C/P struggle with getting levels this year. But you yourself mentioned that they tended to take on programs that explained away/rationalized their weaknesses (lack of on ice connection being the most notable one) as opposed to work to overcome them.

2. I think P/B must medal at Nice for them to be motivated enough to continue. F/S less so. But with these two teams, it's less that they lost it forever and more that I wonder what happens after your best shot? In the case of F/S, they had their best shot and took home Euros silver with two program victories, Olympics top 5, and World bronze. P/B had their best shot this year - the upcoming teams were still upcoming (we all thought), multiple retirements (eight of the top 11 teams from Olympics have split/retired) and a rocketship of a season. Now, can you imagine what happens next season if the Shibs improve, I/K come fully prepared, V/M revitalized and D/W on a mission?